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Statistics-1

Section (3)
Prepared By : Doaa Ghaleb
Definition of Probability
● Probability: A measure that an event in the future will happen or not.
○ It can be between 0 and 1.
■ If it near 0, this event is not likely to happen
■ if it is near 1 this event is likely to happen.

● Elements of probability :

1. Random Experiment
2. Sample Space
3. Event
4. Probability
1- Random Experiment
Random Experiment: is a process , or procedures , repeatable under the same
conditions leading to defined outcomes

Random Experiment: is an experiment with known output but when it’s


occurred it’s NOT known which of them will be occur

Why Random ?
It is random because we can never tell in advance what the outcome is going
to be , even if we can specify what are the possible outcomes
Example : Tossing A Die

● Consider the simple random


experiment of random experiment of
tossing a die and observing the
number on the up face.
1. Observe a 1
● There are six basic possible
2. Observe a 2
outcomes to this random
experiment 3. Observe a 3
4. Observe a 4
5. Observe a 5
6. Observe a 6
2- Sample Space

Sample Space: is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.

The sample space is denoted as S.


Examples :

● Sample space of the “Tossing of Coin” experiment:

S= {Head, Tail}

● Sample space of the “Tossing of Die”experiment

S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Exercise (1) :

Two coins are tossed, and their up faces are recorded.


What is the sample space for this experiment?

Coin 1 Coin 2

Head Head
Head Tail
Tail Head
Tail Tail

S= {HH , HT , TH , TT}
Exercise (2) :
Three coins are tossed, and their up faces are recorded. What is the sample space
for this experiment?

S = { HHH , HHT , HTH , THH


,TTH , HTT , THT , TTT }
Exercise (3) :

Suppose a pair of dice is tossed .


What is the sample space for this experiment?

S= {(1,1) , (1,2) , (1,3) , (1,4) , (1,5) , (1,6),


(2,1) , (2,2) , (2,3) , (2,4) , (2,5) , (2,6),
(3,1) , (3,2) , (3,3) , (3,4) , (3,5) , (3,6),
(4,1) , (4,2) , (4,3) , (4,4) , (4,5) , (4,6),
(5,1) , (5,2) , (5,3) , (5,4) , (5,5) , (5,6),
(6,1) , (6,2) , (6,3) , (6,4) , (6,5) , (6,6) }
Exercise (4) :

Suppose a A coin and a dice are thrown.


What is the sample space for this experiment?

S= { (H,1) , (H,2) , (H,3) , (H,4) , (H,5) , (H,6)


(T,1) , (T,2) , (T,3) , (T,4) , (T,5) , (T,6) }
3- Event

Event :is a subset of the sample space of a random experiment, it can be one
outcome or a collection of outcomes.
The Event is denoted by any capital letter like A , B , C , ..etc.

Let Event A, be the collection of sample points that fulfill the outcome we are
interested in.
Then we can say A is subset from S or A ⊂ S
Examples :
Recall the “Tossing of Die” experiment. Suppose we are interested in the outcome
that an even number will come up. Then :

Event A : an even number will come up.


A={2,4,6}

Event A subset of Sample Space


S = { 1, 2 , 3 , 4 ,5 , 6 } → Sample Space
A = { 2 , 4 , 6 } → Event A

Then : A ⊂ S
Examples :

1. S = {Head, Tail}
Let A ={Head} → the event of a Head turning up.
Let B ={Tail} → the event of a Tail turning up.

1. S = {Head-Head, Head-Tail, Tail-Head, Tail-Tail} / { HH , HT , TH , TT }


Let X = {Head-Head, Head-Tail, Tail-Head} → the event of at least one Head will
turn up.
Let Y ={Tail-Tail, Tail-Head, Head-Tail} → the event of a at least one Tail will turn
up.
Exercise (1)
Given the sample space S , for the single toss of a pair of dice, list the elements
of the following events:

A = event of obtaining a sum that is an even number

B = event of obtaining a sum that is an odd number.

S= {(1,1) , (1,2) , (1,3) , (1,4) , (1,5) , (1,6),


(2,1) , (2,2) , (2,3) , (2,4) , (2,5) , (2,6),
(3,1) , (3,2) , (3,3) , (3,4) , (3,5) , (3,6),
(4,1) , (4,2) , (4,3) , (4,4) , (4,5) , (4,6),
(5,1) , (5,2) , (5,3) , (5,4) , (5,5) , (5,6),
(6,1) , (6,2) , (6,3) , (6,4) , (6,5) , (6,6) }
Exercise (1)

A = event of obtaining a sum that is an even number

S= {(1,1) , (1,2) , (1,3) , (1,4) , (1,5) , (1,6), A= {(1,1) , (1,3) , (1,5),


(2,1) , (2,2) , (2,3) , (2,4) , (2,5) ,(2,6), (2,2) , (2,4) , (2,6),
(3,1) , (3,2) , (3,3) , (3,4) , (3,5) , (3,6), (3,1) , (3,3) , (3,5),
(4,1) , (4,2) , (4,3) , (4,4) , (4,5) , (4,6), (4,2) , (4,4) , (4,6),
(5,1) , (5,2) , (5,3) , (5,4) , (5,5) , (5,6), (5,1), (5,3) , (5,5) ,
(6,1) , (6,2) , (6,3) , (6,4) , (6,5) , (6,6) } (6,2), (6,4) , (6,6) }
Exercise (2)

B = event of obtaining a sum that is an odd number.

B = { (1,2), (1,4) , (1,6),


(2,1), (2,3) , (2,5) ,
(3,2) , (3,4) , (3,6),
(4,1) , (4,3) ,(4,5),
(5,2) , (5,4), (5,6),
(6,1) , (6,3) ,(6,5) }
Simple Event vs Compound Event

Simple event: an event that consists of exactly one outcome.

Compound event : is more complex than a simple event it involves the


probability of more than one outcome
Examples :
Determine whether these are simple or compound events:

a) Getting a number less than 2 or greater than 4 when spinning this spinner
once.
Simple Event
Examples :

Determine whether these are simple or compound events:

b) Getting heads when a coin is tossed and getting a 3 when a six-sided number
die is rolled. Combination of two events

Compound Event
Event

● Simple event: an event that consists of exactly one outcome.

● Or: means the union (˅) i.e. either can occur. (Mutually Exclusive)
● And: means intersection (˄) i.e. both must occur.

● If we have 2 events E and F:

● E and F means all outcomes that belong to both E and F


● E or F means all outcomes that belong to either E or F
Types of Events

● Two events are Mutually Exclusive / disjoint if they can’t happen


together (they don’t intersect) i.e. I can’t sleep and read a book at the
same time.

● Two events are Independent if the occurrence of one event doesn’t affect
the occurrence of the other event i.e. if I passed an exam; it is not
necessarily that my brother will also pass the exam.

● Two events are Collectively Exhaustive if at least one of the events must
occur when an experiment is conducted.

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