Inferences Based on a Single Sample - Tests of Hypotheses

• We define two hypotheses:

• (1) The null hypothesis, denoted H 0 ,is that which represents the status quo to the party
performing the sampling experiment—the hypothesis that will be accepted unless the data
provide convincing evidence that it is false. This usually represents the “status quo” or some
claim about the population parameter that the researcher wants to test.
H 0 :   .... H 0 :   .... H 0 :   ....

• (2) The alternative (research) hypothesis, denoted H a or H1 is that which will be accepted
only if the data provide convincing evidence of its truth. This usually represents the values of a
population parameter for which the researcher wants to gather evidence to support.

H a or H1 :   .... H1 :   .... H1 :   ....

Suppose building specifications in a certain city require that the average breaking strength of residential sewer
pipe be more than 2,400 pounds per foot of length (i.e., per linear foot). Each manufacturer who wants to sell pipe
in this city must demonstrate that its product meets the specification. We want to decide whether the mean
breaking strength of the pipe exceeds 2,400 pounds per linear foot.

H 0 :   2400 (i.e., the manufacturer’s pipe does not meet specifications)

H a :   2400 (i.e., the manufacturer’s pipe meets specifications)
The table above summarizes the four possible outcomes (i.e., conclusions) of a test of hypothesis. The “true state of
nature” columns in the table refer to the fact that either the null hypothesis H 0 is true or the alternative hypothesis
Ha is true. Note that the true state of nature is unknown to the researcher conducting the test. The “decision” rows
in the table refer to the action of the researcher, assuming that he or she will either conclude that H 0 is true or that
Ha is true, based on the results of the sampling experiment. Note that a Type I error can be made only when the null
hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis, and a Type II error can be made only when the null
hypothesis is accepted. Our policy will be to make a decision only when we know the probability of making the
error that corresponds to that decision. Because a is usually specified by the analyst, we will generally be able to
reject H 0 (accept H a ) when the sample evidence supports that decision. However, because  is usually not
specified, we will generally avoid the decision to accept H 0 , preferring instead to state that the sample evidence is
insufficient to reject H 0 when the test statistic is not in the rejection region.
One-tailed (or one-sided) Statistical Test Two-tailed (or two-sided) Statistical Test

The rejection region for a two-tailed test differs from that for
a one-tailed test. When we are trying to detect departure
from the null hypothesis in either direction, we must
establish a rejection region in both tails of the sampling
distribution of the test statistic.
P. 1) Cigarette advertisements are required by federal law to carry the following statement: “Warning: The surgeon
general has determined that cigarette smoking is dangerous to your health.” However, this warning is often located in
inconspicuous corners of the advertisements and printed in small type. Suppose the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)
claims that 80% of cigarette consumers fail to see the warning. A marketer for a large tobacco firm wants to gather
evidence to show that the FTC’s claim is too high, i.e., that fewer than 80% of cigarette consumers fail to see the
warning. Specify the null and alternative hypotheses for a test of the FTC’s claim.

P. 2) A metal lathe is checked periodically by quality-control inspectors to determine whether it is producing

machine bearings with a mean diameter of 0.5 inch. If the mean diameter of the bearings is larger or smaller than 0.5
inch, then the process is out of control and must be adjusted. Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses for a test
to determine whether the bearing production process is out of control.
Solution 1: Solution 2:
Significance Levels: p-Values
Steps for Calculating the p-Value for a Test of Hypothesis
1. Determine the value of the test statistic z corresponding to the result of the sampling experiment.
2. a. If the test is one-tailed, the p-value is equal to the tail area beyond z in the same direction as the alternative
hypothesis. Thus, if the alternative hypothesis is of the form >, the p-value is the area to the right of, or above, the
observed z-value. Conversely, if the alternative is of the form <, the p-value is the area to the left of, or below, the
observed z-value.

b. If the test is two-tailed, the p-value is equal to twice the tail area beyond the observed z-value in the direction of the
sign of z—that is, if z is positive, the p-value is twice the area to the right of, or above, the observed z-value. Conversely,
if z is negative, the p-value is twice the area to the left of, or below, the observed z-value.
• In a test of H 0 :   100 against H a :   100 , the sample data yielded the test statistic z = 2.17.
Find and interpret the p-value for the test.
• In a test of the hypothesis H 0 :   10 versus H a :   10 , a sample of n = 50 observations possessed
mean x = 10.7 and standard deviation s = 3.1. Find and interpret the p-value for this test.
Test of Hypothesis About a Population Mean: Normal (z) Statistic
• When testing a hypothesis about a population mean m, the test statistic we use will depend on whether the sample
size n is large (say, n > 30) or small, and whether or not we know the value of the population standard deviation, s.
Because the sample size is large, the Central Limit Theorem guarantees that the sampling distribution of x is
approximately normal. Consequently, the test statistic for a test based on large samples will be based on the normal z-
statistic. Although the z-statistic requires that we know the true population standard deviation s, we rarely if ever
know s. when n is large, the sample standard deviation s provides a good approximation to s, and the z-statistic can be
approximated as follows:

where m0 represents the value of m specified in the null hypothesis.

Test of Hypothesis About a Population Mean: Student’s t-Statistic
When we are faced with making inferences about a population mean using the information in a small sample, two
problems emerge:
1. The normality of the sampling distribution for x does not follow from the Central Limit Theorem when the
sample size is small. We must assume that the distribution of measurements from which the sample was selected
is approximately normally distributed in order to ensure the approximate normality of the sampling distribution
of x.
2. If the population standard deviation s is unknown, as is usually the case, then we cannot assume that s will
provide a good approximation for s when the sample size is small. Instead, we must use the t-distribution rather
than the standard normal z-distribution to make inferences about the population mean m.

Therefore, as the test statistic of a small-sample test of a population mean, we use the t-statistic:

where m0 is the null hypothesized value of the population mean m.

To find the rejection region, we must specify the value of a, the probability that the test will lead to rejection of the
null hypothesis when it is true, and then consult the t-table.
The technique for conducting a small-sample test of hypothesis about a population mean is summarized in the
following box.
Example

In a factory where detergents are produced in boxes of 500 gr., the standard deviation of
boxes is known as 10 gr. The average weight of 50 randomly selected boxes is calculated
as 505 gr. Could it be said that the production is in compliance with the standards at the
5% significance level? It takes a very short time to reset the machine.
1) H 0 :   500 gr.
H a :   500 gr.

2)   %5  0.05

 10
3) X    1.4142
n 50
x  505  500
Z   3.54
X 1.4142

4) Z / 2  Z 0.025  1.96

H 0 is rejected because 3.54  1.96 . Production does not meet specifications, stop production.
Example

• In a biscuit factory where 250 gram biscuits are produced, it is examined whether
the production complies with the standards. 25 packages were randomly selected
from 400 boxes for each analysis. It is known that the boxes are normally
distributed according to their weights. Average weight of a selected sample is
247.67 g, standard deviation is 6 g. Could it be accepted that production is under
control at the 1% significance level? (The machine cannot be adjusted in a short
time.)
1) H 0 :   250 gr.
H a :   250 gr.

2)   %1  0.01

3) n  25  30 N  400
n / N  25 / 400  0.0625  0.05

s N n 6 400  25
ˆ X    1.1634
n N  1 25 400  1
247.67  250
t  2.003 0.005 0.005
1.1634

4) t0.005,24  2.797 -2.797 -2.003 2.797

H 0 is accepted because 2.003  2.797 . Production meets specifications, production can be continued.
Example

Steel with an average resistance of at least 2500 kg is used in a machine industry. In

order to make the product acceptance sampling of a new order, 64 bars were
randomly selected and it was determined that the average resistance was 2350 kg
and the standard deviation was 400 kg. Is this order acceptable at the 1%
significance level?
1) H 0 :   2500 kg
H a :   2500 kg

2)   %1  0.01

3) s 400
X    50 kg
n 64
x  2350  2500
Z   3
X 50

0.01
4) Z  Z 0.01  2.33
-3 -2.33

H 0 is rejected because 3  2.33 . Steel does not meet specifications. The order should be rejected.
Example

• The life in hours of a battery is known to be approximately normal distributed

with standard deviation 1.5 hours. A random sample of 15 batteries has a mean life
of 41 hours. Is there evidence to support the claim that battery life exceeds 40
hours at the %1 significance level? Check the hypothesis by using the p-value.
1) H 0 :   40
H a :   40

2)   %1  0.01   1.5 n  15

3)  X    1.5  0.387
n 15
x  41  40
Z   2.582
X 0.387

4) p value  P( Z  Z t )
p value  P( Z  2.58)

p value  0.5  0.4951  0.0049

p value  
0.0049  0.01  H 0 is rejected.
2.58
Normal Curve Area
Critical Values of t