1

INTRODUCTION TO
SIMULATION
Unit 1
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What is Simulation??
• A Simulation is the imitation (artificial) of the operation of a
real-world process or system over time. Whether done by
hand or on a computer, simulation involves the
generation of an artificial history of a system and the
observation of that artificial history to draw inferences
concerning the operating characteristics of the real
system.
•A simulation of a system is the operation of a model of the
system.
•The model can be reconfigured and experimented with;
usually, this is impossible, too expensive or impractical to
do in the system it represents.
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What is Simulation??
• Simulation is used before an existing system is altered
or a new system built, to reduce the chances of failure
to meet specifications, to eliminate unforeseen
bottlenecks, to prevent under or over-utilization of
resources, and to optimize system performance.
• Simulation is the numerical technique for conducting
experiments on digital computer, which involves logical
and mathematical relationships that interact to describe
the behavior and the structure of a complex real world
system over extended period of time.
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What is Simulation??
•The behavior of a system as it evolves over time is
studied by developing a simulation model. This model
usually takes the form of a set of assumptions concerning
the operation of the system. These assumptions are
expressed
•mathematical,
•logical, and
•symbolic
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System
•The term system is derive from the Greek word
systema, which means an organized relationship
among functioning units or components.
•A system is defined as a group of objects that are
joined together in some regular interaction or
interdependence for the accomplishment of some
task. For example: Production system for
manufacturing automobiles.
•A system is usually considered as a set of inter–
related factors, which are described as entities
activities and have properties or attributes.
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System
- Assembly of objects joined in some regular interaction
or interdependence.
- A system exists and operates in time and space.
- bounded inside system boundary
Subsystems

Input Output

System
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Example of System
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Example of System
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•Consider a factory system that takes orders from

customers and produces a finished product. In the above
system, Production Control Department takes orders from
customers and direct Purchasing Department to purchase
raw material to carry out order. The Fabrication
Department fabricates the raw material and the fabricated
raw materials are assembled by Assembly Department
and are sent to Shipping Department (TD) for the dispatch
of finished product.
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Components of a System:
 Entity
 An entity is an object of interest in a system. Ex: In the factory system,
departments, orders, parts and products are The entities.
Attribute
 An attribute denotes the property of an entity. Ex: Quantities for each
order, type of part, or number of machines in a Department are
attributes of factory system.
Activity
 Any process causing changes in a system is called as an activity. Ex:
Manufacturing process of the department.
State of the System
 The state of a system is defined as the collection of variables
necessary to describe a system at any time, relative to the objective of
study. In other words, state of the system mean a description of all the
entities, attributes and activities as they exist at one point in time.
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Components of a System:
 Event
 An event is define as an instaneous occurrence that may change
the state of the system.
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Components of a System:
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System Environment
•The external components which interact with the system
and produce necessary changes are said to constitute the
system environment.
•In modeling systems, it is necessary to decide on the
boundary between the system and its environment. This
decision may depend on the purpose of the study.
•Ex: In a factory system, the factors controlling arrival of
orders may be considered to be outside the factory but
yet a part of the system environment. When, we consider
the demand and supply of goods, there is certainly a
relationship between the factory output and arrival of
orders. This relationship is considered as an activity of the
system.
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System Environment
The changes occurring outside the system are said to occur in
system environment.
 Endogenous System
 The term endogenous is used to describe activities and events
occurring within a system. Ex: Drawing cash in a bank.
Exogenous System
The term exogenous is used to describe activities and events in the
environment that affect the system. Ex: Arrival of customers.
ClosedSystem
 A system for which there is no exogenous (No External) activity
and event is said to be a closed. Ex: Water in an insulated flask.
Opensystem
A system for which there is exogenous(External) activity and event
is said to be a open. Ex: Bank system.
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Discrete System and Continuous System

Discrete Systems
•A discrete system is one in which the state variable(s)
change only at a discrete set of points in time.
•The bank is an example of a discrete system: The state
variable, the number of customers in the bank, changes
only when a customer arrives or when the service
provided a customer is completed shows how the number
of customers changes only at discrete points in time.
•i.e. Systems in which the changes are predominantly
(mostly) discontinuous are called discrete systems.
•So, A discrete system is one for which the state variables
changes instantaneously (immediately) at separate point
of time. E.g. Factory System, Bank System
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Discrete Systems
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Discrete System and Continuous System

Continuous Systems
•A continuous system is one in which the state variable(s)
change continuously over time.
•An example is the head of water behind a dam. During
and for some time after a rain storm, water flows into the
lake behind the dam. Water is drawn from the dam for
flood control and to make electricity. Evaporation also
decreases the water level. Figure shows how the state
variable head of water behind the dam changes for this
continuous system.
•i.e. A continuous system is one for which the state
variables changes continuously with respect to time. E.g.
Head of Water behind the dam
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Continuous Systems
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Real time simulation

• Real time simulation refers to a computer model of a
physical system that can execute at the same rate as
actual "wall clock" time.
•In other words, the computer model runs at the same rate
as the actual physical system.
•For example if a tank takes 10 minutes to fill in the real-
world, the simulation would take 10 minutes as well.
•Real-time simulation occurs commonly in computer
gaming, statistical power grid protection tests, aircraft
design and simulation, motor drive controller design
methods and space robot integration are a few examples
of real-time simulator technology applications.
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Real time simulation

• Real time simulation is an approach where an actual
device (hardware or software) can be used rather than
constructing a model
•With this techniques actual devices which are part of a
system are used in conjunction with either a digital or
hybrid computer, providing a simulation of the parts of the
system that do not exist or that can not continently used in
an experiment
•Real time simulation will often involve interaction with a
human being , there by avoiding the need to design and
validate a model of human behavior
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Real time simulation

• Real time simulation requires computers that receive
signals and respond to it which are sent from physical
devices and transfer output signals at specific points in
time
• Example: Devices for training pilots by giving them the
impression they are at the controls of an aircraft in such
an environment where gravity is 1/6th part of earth and
trained to perform different activities
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Model of System
A model is defined as a representation of a system
for the purpose of studying the system.
It is necessary to consider only those aspects of the
system that affect the problem under investigation.
These aspects are represented in a model, and by
definition it is a simplification of the system
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Principles used in modeling:

1. Block building:
• The description of the system should be organized in a series of
blocks to simplify the specifications of the interactions within the

system.
•Each block represents a part of the system and the system as a
whole can be described in terms of interconnections between blocks.
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Principles used in modeling:

2. Relevance:
• The model should only include those aspects of the system that are
relevant (applicable) to the study objectives.
3. Accuracy:
• The accuracy of the information gathered for the model should be
considered.
4. Aggregation:
• A further factor to be considered as the extent to which the number

of individual entities can be grouped together into larger entities.

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Types of system model:

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Types of system model:

•Physical models are based on some analogy between
systems like mechanical and electrical. The system attributes
are represented by such measurements like voltage.
•Mathematical
and models use symbolic notation
mathematical equations to represent the system attributes.
The attributes represented by variables and activities by
mathematical functions that inter-relate the variables.
•Static models can only show the values that system
attributes take when the system is in balance .Dynamic
model , follow the changes over time that result from
system activities.
•Applying analytical techniques means using the deductive
(logical) reasoning of mathematical theory to solve a model.
For E.g. linear differential equation
•Numerical methods involves applying conceptual (theoretical)
procedures to solve equations.
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Types of system model:

1 . Static physical model
Represents a system at a particular point
of time and also known as Monte- Carlo
simulation.
In this model, the measurements are taken to
represent attributes of the system being study under one
set of equilibrium (balance) condition.
In this case, the measurement do not translate
directly into system attribute values.
Well known laws of similitude are used to convert
measurement on the scale model to the values that will
occur in the real system.
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1 . Static physical model …..

They are used in wind tunnels and water tanks in the
course of designing aircraft and ships.
Scientists have used this model in which spheres
represent atoms and rods or specially shaped sheet of
metal connect the spheres to represent atomic bonds.
They are sometimes said to be ionic
models, a term meaning “look alike”.
Sometimes a static physical model is used as a
means of solving equation with particular boundary
conditions.
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1 . Static physical model …..

For E.g. the flow of heat and the distribution of
electric charge through space can be related by common
equation.

Fig: A stick model of water module

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Types of system model:

2 . Dynamic physical model
Represents systems as they change over
time. Ex: Simulation of a bank.
Dynamic physical models are ones which change
with time or which are functions of time.
This model rely upon an analogy between the
system being studied and some other system of different
nature, the analogy usually depending upon an underlying
similarities in the forces governing the behavior of the
systems.
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2 . Dynamic physical model…

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2 . Dynamic physical model…

Fig. represents an electrical circuit with an inductance 𝐿, resistance 𝑅

and capacitance 𝐶 connected in series with a voltage sourc e that varies in
tm
i e according to function(). If is the charge on capacitor it can be
shown that the barrier of the circuit is governed by following differential
equation 𝐸𝑡 𝑞
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2 . Dynamic physical model…

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Types of system model:

3. Static mathematical model
A static model gives the relationship
between the system attributes when the
system is in equilibrium (balance).
If the point of equilibrium is change by alternating
any of the attribute values, the model enables the new
values for all the attributes to be derived.
But doesn't show the way in which they changed to
their new value.
If mathematical model doesn't involve time i.e.
system does not change with time, it is called static
mathematical model of the system.
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3. Static mathematical model…

For e.g. we look at the case of static mathematical
model from industry. In marketing a commodity generally
there is a balance between supply and demand. Both
factors depend on price. Demand for the commodity will be
low when the price is high and it will increase as the price
drops. If we take the simplistic linear case the relationship
between demand ( 𝑄) and price (𝑃) might be represented by
the straight line.
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3. Static mathematical model…

Fig(a): Linear Market Model

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3. Static mathematical model…

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3. Static mathematical model…

In the first model we have taken simple linear case, but
fig (b) might be complex.
In that case the solution may not be so simple. More
usually, the demand and supply are depreciated by curves with
slopes upward and downward respectively.
It may not be possible to express the relationships by
equations that can be solved easily.
Some numerical or graphical methods are used to solve
such relations. In addition, it is difficult to get the values of the
coefficients of the model. Observations over the extended period
of time, however, will establish the slopes (that is values of b and
d) in the neighborhood of the equilibrium points.
These values will often fluctuate under the global and
local economic conditions.
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Types of system model:

4. Dynamic mathematical model
Dynamic mathematical model allows
the changes of system attributes to be derived as a
function of time.
The derivation may be made with an analytical
solution or with a numerical computation, depending upon
the complexity of the model.
The equation to describe the behavior of the car
wheel is an example of a dynamic mathematical model.
It is not possible to find analytic solution of this
equation and one has to adopt the numerical methods.
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4. Dynamic mathematical model…

We divide equation by M and write in the following form
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4. Dynamic mathematical model…

The fig. shows how varies in response to a steady force applied at time 𝑡 =0. It can
be seen that when < 1, the motion is oscillatory.
𝜁𝑥
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Distributed lag model

• Models that have the property of changing only at
fixed interval of time.
• It is used to predict current values of a dependent variable
based on both the current values of an explanatory
variable (independent variable) and the lagged (past
period) values of this explanatory (helpful) variable.
•In economic studies some economic data are collected
over uniform time interval such as a month or year. This
model consists of linear algebraic equations that
represent continuous system but data are available at
fixed points in time.
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Distributed lag model

• Any variable that can be expressed in the form of its
current value and one or more previous value is
called lagging variable. And hence this model is given
the name distributed lag model.
•The variable in a previous interval is denoted by attaching
–n suffix to the variable. Where –n indicate the nth
interval.
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Advantages of distributed lag model

•Simple to understand and can be computed by hand,
computers are extensively used to run them.
•There is no need for special programming language to
organize simulation task.
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Steps in a Simulation study

1. Problem formulation (Invention)
Every study begins with a statement of the
problem, provided by policy makers.
Analyst ensures its clearly understood. If it is
developed by analyst policy makers should understand and
agree with it.
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Steps in a Simulation study

2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan
The objectives indicate the questions to be answered
by simulation.
At this point a determination should be made concerning
whether simulation is the appropriate methodology.
Assuming it is appropriate, the overall project plan should
include
oA statement of the alternative systems
oA method for evaluating the effectiveness of these
alternatives
oPlans for the study in terms of the number of people involved
oCost of the study
oThe number of days required to accomplish each phase of
the work with the anticipated (predicted) results.
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Steps in a Simulation study

3. Model conceptualization
The construction of a model of a system is probably
as much art as science.
The art of modeling is enhanced by an ability
oTo abstract the essential features of a problem
oTo select and modify basic assumptions that characterize the
system
oTo enrich and elaborate the model until a useful
approximation results
Thus, it is best to start with a simple model and build
toward greater complexity. Model conceptualization enhance
the quality of the resulting model and increase the confidence of
the model user in the application of the model.
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Steps in a Simulation study

4. Data collection
There is a constant interplay between the
construction of model and the collection of needed input
data. Done in the early stages.
Objective kind of data are to be collected.
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Steps in a Simulation study

5. Model translation
Real-world systems result in models that require a
great deal of information storage and computation.
It can be programmed by using simulation
languages or special purpose simulation software.
Simulation languages are powerful and flexible.
Simulation software models development time can be
reduced.
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Steps in a Simulation study

6. Verified
It pertains to be computer program and checking the
performance.
If the input parameters and logical structure are
correctly represented, verification is completed.
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Steps in a Simulation study

7. Validated
It is the determination that a model is an
accurate representation of the real system.
Achieved through calibration of the model, an
iterative process of comparing the model to actual system
behavior and the discrepancies between the two.
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Steps in a Simulation study

8. Experimental Design
The alternatives that are to be simulated must be
determined. Which alternatives to simulate may be a
function of runs.
For each system design, decisions need to be made
concerning
oLength of the initialization period
oLength of simulation runs
oNumber of replication to be made of each run
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Steps in a Simulation study

9. Production runs and analysis
They are used to estimate measures of performance
for the system designs that are being simulated.
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Steps in a Simulation study

10. More runs
Based on the analysis of runs that have been
completed.
The analyst determines if additional runs are
needed and what design those additional experiments
should follow.
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Steps in a Simulation study

11. Documentation and reporting
Two types of documentation.
o Program documentation
o Process documentation
Program documentation
Can be used again by the same or different analysts to
understand how the program operates. Further modification will
be easier. Model users can change the input parameters for bette
performance.
Process documentation
Gives the history of a simulation project. The result
of all analysis should be reported clearly and concisely in a final report.
This enable to review the final formulation and alternatives, results of
the experiments and the recommended solution to the problem. The
final report provides a vehicle of certification.
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Steps in a Simulation study

12. Implementation
Success depends on the previous steps. If the
model user has been thoroughly involved and understands
the nature of the model and its outputs, likelihood of a
vigorous implementation is enhanced.
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Steps in a Simulation study

1. Problem formulation
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan
3. Model conceptualization
4. Data collection
5. Model translation
6. Verified
7. Validated
8. Experimental Design
9. Production runs and analysis
10. More runs
11. Documentation and reporting
12. Implementation
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The simulation model building can be

broken into 4 phases:
I Phase
o Consists of steps 1 and 2
o It is period of discovery/orientation
o The analyst may have to restart the process if it is not fine-tuned
o Recalibrations and clarifications may occur in this phase or
another phase.
II Phase
o Consists of steps 3,4,5,6 and 7
o
A continuing interplay is required among the steps
o

Exclusion of model user results in implications during

implementation
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The simulation model building can be

broken into 4 phases:
III Phase
o Consists of steps 8,9 and 10
o
Conceives a thorough plan for experimenting
o
o
Discrete-event stochastic is a statistical experiment

IV Phase
The output variables are estimates that contain random error and
o Consists of steps 11 and 12
therefore proper statistical analysis is required.
o Successful implementation depends on the involvement of user

and every steps successful completion.

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Advantages of simulation
• Simulation can also be used to study systems in
the design stage.
• Simulation models are run rather than solver.
• New policies, operating procedures, decision
rules, information flows, organizational
procedures, and so on can be explored without
disrupting ongoing operations of the real system.
layouts,hardware designs, physical
•New
transportation systems, and so on can be tested
without committing resources for their
acquisition.
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Advantages of simulation
• Hypotheses about how or why certain
phenomena occur can be tested for feasibility
• Time can be compressed or expanded to allow
for a speed-up or slow-down of the phenomena
under investigation.
• Insight can be obtained about the interaction of
variables.
• Insight can be obtained about the importance of
variables to the performance of the system.
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Advantages of simulation
• Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover
where work in process, information, materials, and
so on are being delayed excessively.

•A simulation study can help in understanding

how the system operates rather than how
individuals think the system operates.
• what-if" questions can be answered.
Useful in the design of new systems.
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Limitations/Disadvantages of the
Simulation technique
Model building requires special training.
It is an art that is learned over time and through
experience.
Simulation results can be difficult to interpret
Most simulation outputs are essentially random
variables (they are usually based on random inputs),
so it can be hard to distinguish whether an observation
is a result of system interrelationships. of randomness.
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Limitations/Disadvantages of the
Simulation technique
Simulation modeling and analysis can be time
consuming and expensive.
Skimping (Economical) on resources for modeling and
analysis could result in a simulation model or analysis
that is not sufficient to the task.
Simulation is used in some cases when an
analytical solution is possible, or even
preferable.
This might be particularly true in the simulation of some
waiting lines where closed-form queuing models are
available.
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When simulation is the appropriate tool:

Simulation enables the study of and experimentation with
the internal interactions of a complex system, or of a
subsystem within a complex system.
Informational, organizational and environmental changes
can be simulated and the effect of those alternations on
the model’s behavior can be observer.
The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model
can be of great value to suggesting improvement in the
system under investigation.
By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting
outputs, valuable insight may be obtained into which
variables are most important and how variables interact.
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When simulation is the appropriate tool:

Simulation can be used as a pedagogical(academic) device to
reinforce (highlight) analytic solution methodologies.
Simulation can be used to experiment with new designs or
policies prior implementation, so as to prepare for what may
happen.
Simulation can be used to verify analytic solution.
By simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements
can be determined.
Simulation models designed for training, allow learning without
the cost and disruption of on-the-job learning.
Animation shows a system in simulated operation so that the
plan can be visualized.
The modern system (factory, water fabrication plant, service
organization etc.) is so complex that the interactions can be
treated only through simulation.
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When Simulation Is Not Appropriate

Simulation should not be used when the problem can be
solved using common sense.
Simulation should not be used if the problem can be
solved analytically (logically).
Simulation should not be used if it is easier to perform
direct experiments.
Do not to use simulation, if the costs exceed the savings
Simulation should not be performed if the resources or
time are not available. if a decision in needed is two
weeks and a simulation will take a month, the simulation
study is not advised
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When Simulation Is Not Appropriate

Simulation takes data, sometimes lots of data.
If no data is available, not even estimates,
simulation is not advised
If there is not enough time or the personnel are
not available, simulation is not appropriate.
If managers have unreasonable expectations say,
too much too soon— or the power of simulation is
overestimated, simulation may not be appropriate
If system behavior is too complex or can't be
defined, simulation is not appropriate.
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Applications:
Designing and analyzing manufacturing systems

Evaluating (Calculating) H/W and S/W requirements for

a computer system
Evaluating a new military weapons system or tactics
Determining
Designing ordering policies
communications for an and
systems inventory system
message
protocols for them
Designing and operating transportation facilities such as
freeways, airports, subways, or ports
Evaluating designs for service organizations such as
hospitals, post offices, or fast-food restaurants
Analyzing financial or economic systems
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Applications:
Manufacturing Applications
 Analysis of electronics assembly operations

Design and evaluation of a selective assembly station for high-

precision scroll compressor shells

Comparison of dispatching rules for semiconductor manufacturing


using large-facility models

 Evaluation of cluster tool throughput for thin-film head production


 Determining optimal lot size for a semiconductor back-end factory

Optimization of cycle time and utilization in semiconductor test

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Applications:
Semiconductor Manufacturing
 Comparison of dispatching rules using large-facility
models
 The corrupting influence of variability
 A new lot-release rule for wafer fibs
 Assessment of potential gains in productivity due to
proactive reticle management
 Comparison of a 200-mm and 300-mm X-ray
lithography cell
 Capacity planning with time constraints between
operations
 300-mm logistic system risk reduction
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Applications:
Construction Engineering
 Construction of a dam embankment
 Trenchless renewal of underground urban
infrastructures
 Activity scheduling in a dynamic, multi project setting
 Investigation of the structural steel erection process
 Special-purpose template for utility tunnel construction
 78

Applications:
Military Application
 Modeling leadership effects and recruit type in an Army
recruiting station
 Design and test of an intelligent controller for
autonomous underwater vehicles
 Modeling military requirements for non war fighting
operations
 Multi trajectory performance for varying scenario sizes
 Using adaptive agent in U.S Air Force pilot retention
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Applications:
Logistics, Transportation, and Distribution
Applications
 Evaluating the potential benefits of a rail-traffic planning algorithm

 Evaluating strategies to improve railroad performance

 Parametric modeling in rail-capacity planning

Analysis of passenger flows in an airport terminal

 Proactive flight-schedule evaluation

Design of a toll plaza
 Logistics issues in autonomous food production systems for
 extended- durationrental-car
space exploration
Choosing between locations
Sizing industrial rail-car fleets
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Applications:
Business Process Simulation
 Impact of connection bank redesign on airport gate
assignment
 Product development program planning
 Reconciliation of business and systems modeling
 Personnel forecasting and strategic workforce planning
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Applications:
Human Systems
 Modeling human performance in complex
systems
 Studying the human element in air traffic
control
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CHAPTER 1

Finished !!!