Chapter 13

Probability
Chapter preview
Probability is a discipline grounded in logic, not abstraction. Every concept, formula, and
solution emerges from a foundation of clear, rational thought. As we progress through this
chapter, our goal will not be mere memorization of formulas, but rather a deep understanding of
their logical structure and derivation.
We will provide each formula at first, and after that we shall uncover the state reasoning
that gives rise to it. By identifying underlying patterns and maintaining precise connections
between concepts, we will build a framework of coherent, mathematical thought.
Always remember: probability is not about a single outcome, but about the totality of all
possible outcomes. It is the study of all paths, not just one. To master probability is to master the
art of accounting for every possible event, weighing them with clarity, and reasoning with
precision.
 Concept overview
13.1:

An experiment is a situation involving chance that leads to results called outcomes.

An outcome is the result of a single performance or trial of an experiment.

An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment.

The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes. A sample space can be found using an organized list, table, or tree diagram.

Fundamental Counting Principle is the number of all possible outcomes for an experiment can be found by multiplying the number of possible outcomes from each stage or event

Extra: In probability, k^n represents the total number of possible outcomes when each of n independent trials has k equally likely outcomes.

BIG IDEA: Probability begins with understanding experiments and their outcomes. An event is a collection of one or more outcomes, and the sample space is the complete set of all possible outcomes. To systematically list these
outcomes, we use tools like lists, tables, and tree diagrams. The Fundamental Counting Principle allows us to calculate the total number of outcomes by multiplying the possibilities at each stage. When each of n trials has k equal
options, the total number of outcomes is given by k^n.
 Concept overview
13.2

A Permutation is an arrangement of objects where order is important. To find the number of

permutations of a group of objects, use the factorial. A factorial is written using a number and !.

The following are permutation formulas:

n distinct objects taken r at a time: nPr = n! / (n - r)!

n objects, where one object is repeated r_1 times, another is repeated r_2 times, and so on: n! / r_1! * r_2! … r_k!

EXTRA: Selecting and arranging r items (with some repeats) from a pool of n items (n > r), the number of distinct arrangements is: nPr / r_1! * r_2! … r_k!

A combination is an arrangement of objects where order is not important. To find the number of combinations of a group of objects, use the formula: n! / r! (n - r)!

Permutations are arrangements where order matters, and they are calculated using factorials. If some items repeat, adjustments are made by dividing by the factorials of the repeated counts. When selecting and arranging fewer
items from a larger group with possible repeats, a modified permutation formula is used. Combinations, on the other hand, are selections where order doesn't matter, and the formula divides by the number of ways to rearrange
the selected items.
 Concept overview
13.3:

Probability that involves a geometric measure is called Geometric probability.

Probability: Want / Total

Geometric probability involves calculating likelihood based on length, area, or volume. And probability involved in shapes can be overviewed with Desired measure / Total measure
 Concept overview
13.4:
A probability model is a mathematical model used to match a random phenomenon. A simulation is the use of a probability model to recreate a situation again and again so that the likelihood of various outcomes can be
estimated.

Step 1: Determine each possible outcome and its theoretical probability.

Step 2: State any assumptions

Step 3: Describe an appropriate probability model for the simulation.

Step 4: Define what a trial is for the situation and state the number of trials to be conducted

EXTRA: Ave = Sum of all observations / Total number of observations.

A Random Variable is a variable that can assume a set of values, each with fixed probabilities.

Expected value also known as mathematical expectation, is the average value of a random variable that one expects after repeating an experiment or simulation a theoretically infinite number of times.

Step 1: Multiply the value of X by its probability of occurring

Step 2: Repeat Step 1 for all possible values of X

Step 3: Find the sum of the results

E(X) = ∑ [ X * P(X) ]

The law of larger #’s states as the number of trials of a random process increases,the average value will approach the expected value.

A probability model represents a random situation mathematically, and a simulation uses this model to repeat the situation many times to estimate outcome likelihoods. Simulations follow structured steps: define outcomes and
probabilities, state assumptions, model the process, and conduct trials. A random variable assigns numerical values to outcomes, each with a fixed probability. The expected value (E(X)) is the long-term average of a random
variable. Law of large numbers states that as the number of trials increases, the average value will approach to the expected value.
 Concept overview
13.5:

A compound event or composite event consists of two or more simple events.

Two or more simple events happening together, can be independent or dependent. Events are independent if the probability of one event does not affect the probability of the other. Events are dependent if one event in some way
changes the probability that the other occurs.

Conditional Probability is used to find the probability of dependent events. It also can be used when additional information is known about an event.

The conditional probability of B given A is P(B | A) = p ( A and B ) / P ( A ) (This formula is the same as the one shown below) where P ( A ) ≠ 0, and is read the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already
occurred.

Probability of two independent Events: P ( A and B ) = P ( A ) * P ( B )

Probability of two dependent Events: P ( A and B ) = P ( A ) * P ( B | A )

A compound event involves two or more simple events happening together. These events can be independent, where one does not affect the other, or dependent, where the occurrence of one influences the probability of the
other. Conditional probability is used to calculate the likelihood of dependent events, especially when additional information is known. The probability of both events occurring depends on whether they are independent or
dependent.
 Concept overview
13.6:

If two events cannot happen at the same time, and therefore have no common outcomes, they are said to be mutually exclusive.

Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events: P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )

Probability of Non - Mutually Exclusive Events: P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) - P ( A and B )

The complement of an event A is all of the outcomes in the sample space that are not included as outcomes of event A.

Probability of the Complement of an Event: P ( Not A ) = 1 - P ( A )

Events that cannot occur at the same time are mutually exclusive, and their combined probability is the sum of their individual probabilities. For non-mutually exclusive events, subtract the overlap to avoid double-counting. The
complement of an event includes all outcomes not in the event, and its probability is found by subtracting the event’s probability from 1.
Worked Examples
We will be doing a number of questions for each sections, and as we go
through, we will be proving the terms and formulas shown previously.
 Worked Examples
13.1:

● A coin is tossed and then a die is rolled. Represent the sample space for this experiment by making an organized list, a table, and a tree diagram. This is an example of a two-stage experiment.
- When doing a list, we choose a “Side” to make sure that they will have interactions with all the other variables except for its own side, as to this question, we can choose either “Coin side” or “Die side”. And whichever
side we chose, we are going to match that with every outcomes on the other side.
● So now let us choose the “Coin side”, we have two outcomes, H (Stands for heads), T ( Stands for tails). And now we match the H and T with all the outcomes on the other side. The die has 6 outcomes, ranging from 1
to 6. There doesn’t exist an order that you must follow, we shall match them to the lowest number to the highest just for clarity purpose. H shall match to 1, that is the scenario when the result from the coin is H and the
result from the die is 1, and now we shall repeat this by changing the number of the die to match H to cover every scenario. Thus we shall see H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, and H6. As to T, by using the same logic, we shall
find T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, and T6. You can flip the order of coin and die, it shall not change the result.
- When doing a table, it is basically the same logic, you also choose a side, but this time, the first side you choose shall lay upon the result section horizontally and properly named “Outcome stage one”, and the second
side you chose shall be in the left side of the result section standing vertically, and properly named “Outcome stage two”. (Note, it is generally recommended to only use table when there are 2 variables. If there are
multi-variables, use tree diagram)
● So now let us choose the same “Coin side”, and that shall be on the top, with H and T laid horizontally . And the other side, which is the die, shall stand vertically on the left side, and now you match accordingly in the
result section which is their intersection.
- When doing a tree diagram, name the top most “Outcomes”. And you also choose a side: if you choose coin, you shall draw two lines from “Outcomes” down, and if you choose die, you shall draw six.
● So to the most extent and end of the two lines, we shall name H and T, and for H, it has 6 choices from the die , so we put six sublines under H and to the most extend and end of it, we write 1 to 6, same as T. If you
draw six lines from the “Outcomes”, then you shall name them 1 to 6 individually, and for each outcomes, we have two choices from the coin, so we put two sublines under each number and to the most extent and end
of it, we write H and T.
 Worked Examples
13.1:

● In a catalog of outdoor patio plans, there are 4 types of stone, 3 types of edgers, 5 dining sets and 6 grills. Carl plans to order one item from each category.
- We are going to use the fundamental Counting Principle for this question, we first need to understand the logical concept of this method.
● The counting principle is logically the same as the tree diagram. We need to take one from each, so let us say that we have 4 types of stone options, for each one of the 4 types of stone, we have 3 types of edgers
option, so 4 3’s, that is 4 * 3, and now we have 12 “branches”. And for each “branch”, or in other words, for each edger, we have 5 types of dining sets option, so 12 5’s, that is 12 * 5, and now we have 60 “branches”.
And at last, for each “branch”, or in other words, for each dining set, we have 6 types of grills option, so 60 6’s, that is 60 * 6.
● 4 * 3 * 5 * 6 = 360.
 Worked Examples
13.2:

● You have a textbook for each of the following subjects: Spanish, English, Chemistry, Geometry, History, and Psychology. If you choose 4 of these at random to arrange on a shelf, what is the probability
that the Geometry textbook will be first from the left and the Chemistry textbook will be second from the left?
- We have 6 textbooks: Spanish, English, Chemistry, Geometry, History, and Psychology. We randomly choose 4 to place on a shelf, and order matters, so we use permutations.
● When we do probabilities, we use the want over total. So whenever we do probabilities, ask yourself, what do I want and what is the total of that want. When we do permutations, we are getting the number of
permutations there exist in a set of outcomes. Keypoint to remember is when doing permutations, ( A, B, C ) is different from ( B, A, C ), it is vice versa for combination, which we will be discussing in later. So we are
choosing 4 books from 6 books, we need to know the total number of permutations there exist in this set, thus we shall put 6P4. And by solving the permutation based on the formula, we will get 360, that number
represents the total number of permutations there exist in this set, and thus we have the total.
- And the want of this question is “Geometry textbook will be first from the left and the Chemistry textbook will be second from the left”
● We get the permutations there exist for the rest of the 2 books except for the want, because the want is already the prerequisite of the rest of the books, and for each permutation of the other books, there exist a want
at front. And by finding the permutations of the rest of books, which is 4P2, we shall see the total number of all permutations in the prerequisite that the want exists at front.
- And the probability
● The total number of permutations in the the prerequisite that the want exists at front is included in the all total number of permutations. Thus the total number of permutations in the prerequisites / the total number of
permutations, shall give us the probability, which is 1/30 or about 3.33%
● 4P2 / 6P4 = 1 / 30 or ≈ 3.33 %
 Worked Examples
13.2:

● The Service Club is choosing members at random to attend one of four conferences in LA, Atlanta, Chicago, and New York. There are 20 members in the club. What is the probability that Lana, Sherry,
Miguel, and Jerome are chosen for these trips?
- We have 4 places to attend: LA , Atlanta, Chicago, and New York, and we need one person for each event, thus 4 people to attend in total, and we are choosing from a total of 20 people to attend.
● So because the places are in order, and each person has a dedicated place, thus the order does matter, and therefore we shall use permutations. We are choosing a permutation of 4 from 20, so 20P4, that shall give
you the total number of permutations to arrange 4 people from 20 people. And we have 4 people to attend, Lana, Sherry, Miguel, and Jerome. We want to know there exist how many ways to arrange them differently,
when order does matter. So to do that, we have two choices which are essentially the same: 4P4, or 4!. 4P4 gives you how many permutations there exist to choose 4 out of 4 (Note, when doing this, the 0! equals to 1,
because there exist one way to arrange nothing). And 4! Gives you the same thing. We are going to break down the concept of one of them. First let us do 4!, first we have 4 options to choose at first stage, which are
Lana, Sherry, Miguel, and Jerome, so when we choose one person out to attend one dedicated place, we have 4 options. And after one person is chosen out, we have 3 options to choose at second stage, so when we
choose one person out to attend one dedicated place, we have 3 options. So we have 4 3’s, that is 4 * 3, And after two people are chosen out, we have 2 options to choose at third stage, so when we choose one
person out to attend one dedicated place, we still have 2 options. So we have 12 2’s, this is 12 * 2. And last, we have 1 option at fourth stage, so when we choose one person out to attend one dedicated place, we still
have 1 option. So we have 24 1’s, that is 24 * 1. And the other method, which is 4P4, is to use the sam logic, but you just put the format in formula format.
- And by using the same logic as the previous question in regard to probability, we shall get this number.
● 4! . 20P4 ≈ 1 / 4845 or ≈ 0.02 %

4 3 2
1
 Worked Examples
13.2:

● What is the probability that a 7-digit telephone number generated using the digits 2, 3, 2, 5, 2, 7, and 3 is the number 222-3357?
- We need to recognize how many digit options , we have, so according to the problem, we have 7 digit options, and then we can find the permutations of there exist to arrange 7 out of 7
● So two approaches, 7! Or 7P7, we will explain one of them. Let us do 7P7, that will give us the permutations there exist to arrange 7 numbers out of 7 in all permutations.
- Then the focus turn to the desired arrangement.
● So we want 222-3357. Always remember, we are choosing number from the number pool, not in the desired arraignment! There are three 2’s we can use in the number pool, at first, so there exist 3! ways to choose
three 2’s. And then to the extent of each 2, we have two 3’s we can use in the number pool, so there exist 2! ways to choose two 3’s under each chose of 2. And there are only 1 way to choose 5 and 7 under each
chose of 3. So the total number of ways to choose to set this arrangement is 3! * 2! * 1 * 1.
- And now we have the total number of permutations there exist to arrange 7 digits, and we have the number of permutations there exist to get what we want.
● But there is an issue, the total number of permutations doesn't know what we are looking for when it use 3! * 2!* 1 * 1, it can be any number arrange in that order. So to fix that, we are going to find how many sets of
the desired permutations. But remember, when we are finding the number of sets, we are still looking at how many permutations, NOT specifically in the desired order. So to find the number of sets, we use the total
number of permutations there exist to arrange 7 digits over the number of permutations there exist to get what. 7P7 / 3! * 2! * 1 * 1 = 420.
- And 420 is the number of permutations there exist to arrange any number 6 times and 2 times and 1time and time, but the right one is only one out of 420.
● 1 / (7P7 / 3! * 2! * 1 *1) = 1 / 420 or 0.23%
 Worked Examples
13.2:

● Sixteen puppies were born in a litter, if six puppies were black and ten were golden, what is the probability that all three chosen puppies are golden(Assume order mattes)
- We need to find the total number of permutations there exist to arrange 3 puppies out of 16.
● So that is 16P3
- We need to find how many permutations there exist two arrange 3 golden puppies out of 10 golden puppies.
● Note, the permutations there exist to find 3 out of 6 is included in the total. So 10P3
- So there exist 10P3 ways to find 3 golden puppies out of 10 golden puppies, and it is out of 16P3 ways to arrange 3 out of total
● 10P3/16P3 = 3/14 ≈ 21%
 Worked Examples
13.2:

● Kali has a choice of 20 flavors for her triple scoop cone. If she chooses the flavors at random, what is the probability that the 3 flavors she chooses will be vanilla, chocolate, and strawberry?
- We need to recognize that the order of choosing 3 scoops, vanilla, chocolate, strawberry from 20 flavors doesn’t matter, so we shall use combinations, not permutations.
● So by 20C3, we shall get the total number of combinations there exist of choosing 3 flavours.
- Note, when doing combinations, (A, B, C) is the same as (B, A, C), so there only exist one combination that has vanilla, chocolate, and strawberry.
● 1 / 20C3 = 1 / 1140 or 0.09%
 Worked Examples
13.2:

● Sixteen puppies were born in a litter, if six puppies were black and ten were golden, what is the probability that all three chosen puppies are golden?
- We need to recognize that the order of choosing 3 golden puppies out of 16 puppies is not important.
● So to find the total number of puppies combination there exist out of 16 is 16C3.
- And we need to find the number of combinations there exist to find 3 golden puppies out of 10 golden puppies.
● So to find the number of 3 golden puppies combination out of 10 is 10C3
- And note, that number is included in the total.
● 10C3 / 16C3 = 3/14 ≈ 21%
 Worked Examples
13.3:

● Your mom’s minivan has a 24 gallon tank. What is the probability that, when the engine is turned on, the needle on the gas gauge is pointing between 1/4 and 1/2 full?
- In order to know the gallon at ¼ gas gauge and at ½, we need to use the total * the fraction.
● 24 * ¼ and 24 * ½
- And after we get that number, we need to find the gap between them, and ultimately find the probability.
● 14 * ½ - 24 * ¼
- Thus we shall use the gap over total, and that is probability
● ( 14 * ½ - 24 * ½ ) / 24 = ¼ or = 25 %
 Worked Examples
13.3:

● A parachutist needs to land in the center of a target on a rectangular field that is 120 yards by 30 yards. The target is a circular design with a 10 yard radius. What is the probability the parachutist lands
somewhere in the target?
- We have a circle in somewhere on the rectangle with a radius of 10 yards, and the rectangle is 120 yards by 30 yards, we need to find the area of the circle and the rectangle in order to find the probability of landing.
● Circle: 10^2 π
● Rectangle: 120 * 30
- And our want in the probability is the circle, and out total is the rectangle, so circle over the rectangle shall give us the probability.
● 10^2 π / 120*30 = π / 36 or ≈ 8.7%

120

10
30
 Worked Examples
13.3:

● Use the spinner to find each probability. If the spinner lands on a line it is spun again.
● P(pointer landing on red)
● P(pointer landing on blue)
● P(pointer landing on green)
- We have a circle spinner, so the total of degree is 360^*, and by putting any color degree over that total, we can get the probability of landing on.
● On red: 40 / 360 ≈ 11.1%
● On blue: 30 / 360 ≈ 8.3%
● On green: 80 / 360 ≈ 22.2 %
 Worked Examples
13.4:

● Last season, Yao made 18% of his free kicks. Design a simulation using a random number generator that can be used to estimate the probability that he will make his next free kick.
- First we need to determine each possible outcome, Yao made 18 % of his free kicks, or he miss.
● So the first paragraph shall be: “ We have Yao making his free kicks or he miss, the corresponding probabilities are 18% and 82%”
- Second we need to state the assumption, that means in this simulation we are designing, what are we assuming in order for the simulation to work properly.
● So the second paragraph shall be: “We assume that the probability of Yao making the free kick stays the same”
- Third we need to describe an appropriate model. Usually in this step, the easiest thing to do it to make a number generator, and that applies to every question.
● When doing this part, make sure the number in the number generator is the same probability as the question, if I have 50 numbers, then 18 % of it is 1 - 9, therefore that makes the probability stays the same. And we
will use 100 numbers just to simplify the process. So the third paragraph shall be: “We have a random number generator that includes 100 numbers, 1- 18 is a made kick, and 19 - 100 is a miss.”
- Fourth we need to define what a trial is in the corresponding model and state the number of trials to be conducted. And a trial is one complete run-through of the simulation process, from start to finish, that produces
one outcome.
● So the Fourth paragraph shall be “ A trial is one time of kicking, and we shall conduct the experiment 100 times.”
● We have Yao making his free kicks or he miss, the corresponding probabilities are 18% and 82%, we assume that the probability of Yao making the free kick stays the same, we have a random number generator that
includes 100 numbers, 1- 18 is a made kick, and 19 - 100 is a miss. A trial is one time of kicking, and we shall conduct the experiment 100 times.
 Worked Examples
13.4:

● For each field goal attempt in basketball, a player can earn 0, 2, or 3 points. The probability that a certain player will score 0 points on an attempt is 45%, 2 points is 40%, and 3 points is 15%.
● Calculate the expected value for one attempt.
- The expected value is the value that one expects for each attempt, and we are looking for that.
● To get the expected value, we need the multiply value of X by its probability of occurring, and we do that for every single value. And at the end, we get the sum of them.
● 0 * 45% + 2 * 40% + 3 * 15% = 1.25
 Worked Examples
13.5:

● A die is rolled. If the number rolled is less than 5, what is the probability that it is the number 2?
- The probability that a 2 is rolled is always less than 5, so this is a dependent event, because A(Less than 5) is happened first.
● So we shall use the conditional probability, first we need to recognize what the formula is. The conditional probability formula is essentially the same as the formula for probability of two dependent events. Therefore the
formula for conditional probability shall be: Probability of A and B after A / Probability of A.
- So as to this question.
● The probability of of 2 after less than 5 is ⅙, because it is essentially to choose number 2 out of 1 - 6. And the probability of A is 4/6, because we are choosing 1 - 4 out of 1 - 6.
- And thus, the answer shall be this
● ⅙ / 4 / 6 = ¼ or 0.25
 Worked Examples
13.5:

● A red marble is drawn from a bag of 2 blue and 5 red marbles and then replaced, then a red marble is drawn again.
- We are given 7 marbles in total and 2 are blue marbles 5 are red marbles.
● So to recognize that this is an independent event, we need to understand what replacing means. The question states that after a red marble was drawn from the bag and then replaced, meaning that the totality of the
marbles in the bag was not changed, and the each color marbles totality number was not changed as well.
- This is an independent event.
● So according to the independent event formula, we need the two events probability. And the first event is the drawn of a red marble, the second is the drawn of another red marble. The probability of the first event is
5 / 7, the second is still 5 / 7.
- The probability of two events
● 5 / 7 * 5 / 7 = 25 /49 or ≈ 51%
 Worked Examples
13.5:

● A blue marble is selected at random from a bag of 3 red and 9 blue marbles and not replaced. What is the probability that a second marble selected will be blue?
- We are given 12 marbles in total and 3 are red marbles 9 are blue marbles.
● This question is the vice versa of the previous question, and therefore this is a dependent event. To recognize that this is a dependent event, we need understand what not replacing means. Non replacing means that
after the blue marble was drawn, the totality of the mables in the bag had lost one marble, and the totality of the blue marbles had lost one as well.
- This is a dependent event.
● So according to the dependent event formula, we need the two events probability, but the second events probability must be considered after A had happened. Therefore A’s probability, which is the probability of
drawing the first blue marble, is 9 / 12, and the second probability, which is the probability that the second selected marble is still blue, is 8 / 11.
- The probability of the two events.
● 9 /12 * 8 / 11 = 6 / 11 or ≈ 54%
 Worked Examples
13.6:

● Selecting a cat or dog at the animal shelter that has 15 cats, 25 dogs, 9 rabbits and 3 horses
- We are given to choose a cat or a dog at an animal shelter in a totality of 52 animals.
● We can only choose a dog or a cat, so the event is mutually exclusive. So we are just getting the probability of choosing a dog or choosing a cat. But what we are getting is the probability of choosing one desire
outcome out of all masses, so we need to combine the two probabilities.
- So according to the mutually exclusive probability formula
● 15 / 52 + 25 / 52 = 10 / 13 or ≈ 77%
 Worked Examples
13.6:

● You roll a four or you roll a number less than five ( On a regular die)
- We are given a die that requires you to roll a 4 or a number less than 5.
● There are a few concepts to cover in this question, we need to understand that four is within less than 5, and the meaning of “Or”. The meaning of “Or” in here does not mean that you can only get A or B, it means you
can get or A or B or both. And because 4 is within less than 5, we are always satisfying two conditions when getting 4.
- The key point to recognize is that we only want to count 4 once.
● When we are getting the probability of less than 5, we will include 4 into it, but when we are applying the formula, we are adding another probability of 4, so that means we are counting the 4 twice. To fix that, we ned to
subtract the probability of getting 4 in the probability of less than 5. But that probability is not just disappeared, it is added by the probability of getting a 4. That way, we are just counting the 4 once, and that 4 need
could satisfy both condition.
- According to the formula of non - exclusive probability, the probability of getting 4 is ⅙, and the probability of getting a number less than 5 is 4/6, minus out the overlap,, which is ⅙.
- ⅙ + 4 / 6 - ⅙ = 4/6 or ≈ 67%

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

4
 Worked Examples
13.6:

● A survey found that about 90% of the junior class is right handed. If 2 juniors are chosen at random out of 100 juniors, what is the probability that both of them are not right handed?
- We are given 90 % of juniors are right handed, and we are asking what is the probability that 2 juniors are chosen out of a totality of 100 are not right handed.
● We need to first understand that we are asking for not right handed, if 90 % of juniors are right handed, that means there is a 90 percent chance that one anyone chosen is right handed. And vice versa, there is a 10
% chance that one person chosen is not right handed.
- And the selecting of two juniors is a dependent event because after the first selection, the chance of selecting the second one will decrease.
● Because this is a dependent event, the the selection of the second junior will be affect by the first selection, so the first chance is 10%, and the second should be 9%.
- And the probability
● 0.1 * 0.09 = 0.9%
Common Mistakes & Tips & Analogies
At this time we had shown all most every knowledge we could through a
number of questions, but still it would be good to firmly grasp every common
mistakes and tips to avoid any misconceptions.
 Common Mistakes & Tips & Analogies
● In non–mutually exclusive events, when an outcome lies in the overlapping region, it satisfies both A and B, meaning it logically belongs to the event “A or B” by virtue of being in both. In quantum mechanics, Schrödinger’s cat is simultaneously alive and
dead until observed. Similarly, an outcome in A or B exists in a state where it is both A and B, and therefore qualifies under “A or B.” This reframes the concept of “or” not simply as A or B or both, but as A or B or A–Schrödinger–B. However, it is essential
to count this overlapping outcome only once, since it represents a single event shared by both sets.

● Permutations and combinations are often confused, but the distinction is critical. Think of permutations like a locker combination, the order of the digits matters. Switching 3-1-2 with 1-2-3 opens a different locker. Combinations, on the other hand, are like
lottery numbers, the order of 12-18-24 is the same as 24-18-12. When solving, ask yourself: “Does switching the order change the outcome?” If yes, it’s a permutation.

● In geometric probability, outcomes are based on continuous space, not discrete counts. It’s not about how many darts you throw, but where they land. Imagine a dartboard: hitting the bullseye isn’t about how many rings there arel, it’s about how much
area the bullseye occupies relative to the board. Probability becomes a ratio of measurement (length, area, or volume), not just outcome counts. Thinking in terms of spatial coverage, not quantity, helps avoid confusion.

● Confusing the difference between independent and dependent events can be tricky. Independent events are like taking sips from a self-refilling glass, each time you drink, the water level stays the same. What you do now doesn’t affect what’s next.
Dependent events, on the other hand, are like sipping from a fixed glass, every action changes the amount left. In probability, if one event changes the setup for the next, the second outcome depends on the first. Always ask: is the system refilled, or has
it changed.

● When calculating the probability of generating a specific arrangement from a multiset of repeated elements, a common mistake is applying factorial corrections based on the target outcome. But the adjustment must come from the number pool, not the
arrangement. Think of it this way: you’re choosing from a bag that contains multiple identical digits, the repetition is embedded in the source, not the outcome.

● Mistake 1: Assuming Events Are Independent Without Checking: Often assume events are independent even when there’s no replacement or some information is given. Correction: Ask yourself: Does the outcome of the first event change the sample
space for the second? If yes → it’s dependent, and you must adjust the second probability. If no → it’s independent, and you can multiply directly
● Mistake 2: Misapplying the “Or” Rule for Overlapping Events: Often forget to subtract the overlap when using the addition rule for probabilities. This leads to double-counting outcomes that satisfy both events. Correction: Use the proper formula for
non–mutually exclusive events: P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)(The overlap)
● Mistake 3: Confuse conditional probability with regular probability, forgetting that the condition changes the entire context. A common mistake is flipping or mislabeling the parts of the formula, especially in word problems. Correction: remember in
conditional probability, the nominator is the probability of A and B after A. and the denominator is P(A)
Concept map
 14 different types of numbers are generated by a number generator, 1 -14, and for each number generated, there
exists a standard die to roll and match it with the number. How total combinations can be made?

A tech firm is assigning 8 unique security levels to a team of 15 engineers, such that each level is assigned to
exactly one person, and no person receives more than one level. How many total assignments are possible if two

Practice test specific engineers must be assigned the two highest security levels (in some order), and the remaining 6 levels are
assigned to the remaining people?

Some robot ID tags consist of three letters followed by three numbers. Each character can only be used once, and
all characters must come from the sets here: Letters available: GGOLDDD MINE, Digits available: 556677889 What
is the probability of randomly generating the exact robot ID tag: GOD 567?

A committee of 7 people is to be formed from a group of 12 scientists, where: 5 are physicists, 4 are biologists, and
3 are chemists. The committee must meet the following conditions: It must include at least 2 biologists. It can include
no more than 3 physicists. It must include at least 1 chemist. How many different valid committees of 7 people can
be formed under these constraints?

A point (x, y) is chosen at random from the region defined by the system of inequalities: y >= 0, y <= 4, x >= y + 2, x
<= 10. Inside this region lies a circular zone, defined by the inequality: (x - 8)^2 + (y - 2)^2 <= 4. What is the
probability that the randomly chosen point lies inside the circle?

Last season, a soccer player named Marco successfully scored on 28% of his penalty kicks. You want to design a
simulation to estimate the probability of him making his next penalty kick.

At a school fundraiser, a game booth offers the following prizes hidden in sealed envelopes: 40 envelopes contain
$0, 30 envelopes contain $2, 20 envelopes contain $5, 10 envelopes contain $10, Players pay $3 to play once and
choose one envelope at random. Calculate the expected value of a player’s net gain or loss.

A game involves spinning a wheel and flipping a coin. The wheel is divided into 8 equal sections numbered 1
through 8. What is the probability that the wheel lands on a prime number, and the coin lands on heads?

A box contains: 6 green marbles, 5 yellow marbles, and 8 red marbles. Two marbles are drawn one after another
without replacement. What is the probability that the first marble is not red, and the second marble is yellow

In a class of 60 students: 35 students like math (event A) 30 students like science (event B) 18 students like both
math and science. If one student is chosen at random, what is the probability that the student likes math or science?
Then, as an extension, what is the probability that the student likes math or science, but not both?

A spinner has 5 equal sections labeled A, B, C, D, and E. You spin it once. What is the probability that the spinner
does not land on A?

Answer Key:
84
2,471,040
1/6104700
546
π/6
We have Marco making his penalty kicks or he misses. The corresponding probabilities are 28% and 72%. We
assume that the probability of Marco making the penalty kick stays the same. We have a random number generator
that includes 100 numbers. 1–28 represents a made kick, and 29–100 represents a miss. A trial is one time of
kicking, and we shall conduct the experiment 100 times.
-$0.4
¼
25/171
P(math or science) = 47/60, P(math or science, but not both) = 29/60
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