Modal Split

Lecture notes in Transportation Systems Engineering

August 8, 2011

Overview
The third stage in travel demand modeling is modal split. The trip
matrix or O-D matrix obtained from the trip distribution is sliced
into number of matrices representing each mode. First the
significance and factors affecting mode choice problem will be
discussed. Then a brief discussion on the classification of mode
choice will be made. Two types of mode choice models will be
discussed in detail. ie binary mode choice and multinomial mode
choice. The chapter ends with some discussion on future topics in
mode choice problem.

Mode choice

The choice of transport mode is probably one of the most

important classic models in transport planning. This is because of
the key role played by public transport in policy making. Public
transport modes make use of road space more efficiently than
private transport. Also they have more social benefits like if more
people begin to use public transport , there will be less congestion
on the roads and the accidents will be less. Again in public
transport, we can travel with low cost. In addition, the fuel is used
more efficiently. Main characteristics of public transport is that
they will have some particular schedule, frequency etc.

On the other hand, private transport is highly flexible. It provides

more comfortable and convenient travel. It has better accessibility
also. The issue of mode choice, therefore, is probably the single
most important element in transport planning and policy making.
It affects the general efficiency with which we can travel in urban
areas. It is important then to develop and use models which are
sensitive to those travel attributes that influence individual choices
of mode.

Factors influencing the choice of mode

The factors may be listed under three groups:

1. Characteristics of the trip maker : The following features

are found to be important:
1. car availability and/or ownership;
2. possession of a driving license;
3. household structure (young couple, couple with children,
retired people etc.);
4. income;
5. decisions made elsewhere, for example the need to use a
car at work, take children to school, etc;
6. residential density.
2. Characteristics of the journey: Mode choice is strongly
influenced by:
1. The trip purpose; for example, the journey to work is
normally easier to undertake by public transport than
other journeys because of its regularity and the
adjustment possible in the long run;
2. Time of the day when the journey is undertaken.
3. Late trips are more difficult to accommodate by public
transport.
 3. Characteristics of the transport facility: There are two
types of factors.One is quantitative and the other is
qualitative. Quantitative factors are:
1. relative travel time: in-vehicle, waiting and walking times
by each mode;
2. relative monetary costs (fares, fuel and direct costs);
3. availability and cost of parking
Qualitative factors which are less easy to measure are:
1. comfort and convenience
2. reliability and regularity
3. protection, security

A good mode choice should include the most important of these

factors.

Types of modal split models

Trip-end modal split models

Traditionally, the objective of transportation planning was to

forecast the growth in demand for car trips so that investment
could be planned to meet the demand. When personal
characteristics were thought to be the most important
determinants of mode choice, attempts were made to apply
modal-split models immediately after trip generation. Such a
model is called trip-end modal split model. In this way different
characteristics of the person could be preserved and used to
estimate modal split. The modal split models of this time related
the choice of mode only to features like income, residential
density and car ownership.
The advantage is that these models could be very accurate in the
short run, if public transport is available and there is little
congestion. Limitation is that they are insensitive to policy
decisions example: Improving public transport, restricting parking
etc. would have no effect on modal split according to these trip-
end models.

Trip-interchange modal split models

This is the post-distribution model; that is modal split is applied

after the distribution stage. This has the advantage that it is
possible to include the characteristics of the journey and that of
the alternative modes available to undertake them. It is also
possible to include policy decisions. This is beneficial for long term
modeling.

Aggregate and disaggregate models

Mode choice could be aggregate if they are based on zonal and

inter-zonal information. They can be called disaggregate if they
are based on household or individual data.

Binary logit model

Binary logit model is the simplest form of mode choice, where the
travel choice between two modes is made. The traveler will
associate some value for the utility of each mode. if the utility of
one mode is higher than the other, then that mode is chosen. But
in transportation, we have disutility also. The disutility here is the
travel cost. This can be represented as

(1)
where is the in-vehicle travel time between and , is the

walking time to and from stops, is the waiting time at stops,

is the fare charged to travel between and , is the

parking cost, and is a parameter representing comfort and

convenience. If the travel cost is low, then that mode has more
probability of being chosen. Let there be two modes (m=1,2) then
the proportion of trips by mode 1 from zone to zone is( )

Let be the cost of traveling from zone to zone using the

mode 1, and be the cost of traveling from zone to zone by

mode 2,there are three cases:

1. if - is positive, then mode 1 is chosen.

2. if - is negative, then mode 2 is chosen.

3. if - = 0 , then both modes have equal probability.

This relationship is normally expressed by a logit curve as shown

in figure 1 Therefore the proportion of trips by mode 1 is given by

(2)

This functional form is called logit, where is called the

generalized cost and is the parameter for calibration. The graph

in figure 1 shows the proportion of trips by mode 1 ( )

against cost difference.

 Figure 1: logit function

Example

Let the number of trips from zone to zone is 5000, and two

modes are available which has the characteristics given in Table 1.

Compute the trips made by mode bus, and the fare that is
collected from the mode bus. If the fare of the bus is reduced to
6, then find the fare collected.
Table 1: Trip characterisitcs

car 20 - 18 4
bus 30 5 3 9

0.03 0.04 0.06 0.1 0.1

Table 2: Binary logit model example:

solution

ar 20 - 18 4 2.08 .52 2600

bus 30 5 3 9 2.18 .475 2400

.03 .04 .06 .1 .1

Solution

The base case is given below.

Cost of travel by car (Equation)=

= 2.08

Cost of travel by bus (Equation)=

= 2.18

Probability of choosing mode car (Equation)= =

0.52
Probability of choosing mode bus (Equation)= =

0.475
Proportion of trips by car = = 5000 0.52 = 2600

Proportion of trips by bus = = 5000 0.475 = 2400

Fare collected from bus = = 2400 9 = 21600

When the fare of bus gets reduced to 6,

Cost function for bus=

= 1.88
Probability of choosing mode bus (Equation)= =

0.55
Proportion of trips by bus = = 5000 0.55 = 2750

Fare collected from the bus = 2750 6 = 16500

The results are tabulated in table

Multinomial logit model

The binary model can easily be extended to multiple modes. The
equation for such a model can be written as:

(3)

Example

Let the number of trips from to is 5000, and three modes are

available which has the characteristics given in Table 3: Compute

the trips made by the three modes and the fare required to travel
by each mode.
Table 3: Trip characteristics

coefficient 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.1 0.1

car 20 - - 18 4
bus 30 5 3 6 -
train 12 10 2 4 -

Solution

Cost of travel by car (Equation)=

= 2.8

Cost of travel by bus (Equation)=

= 1.88

Cost of travel by train (Equation)=

= 1.28

Probability of choosing mode car (Equation)

= 0.1237
Probability of choosing mode bus (Equation

= 0.3105
Probability of choosing mode train (Equation)=
= 0.5657

Proportion of trips by car, = 5000 0.1237 = 618.5

Proportion of trips by bus, = 5000 0.3105 = 1552.5

Similarly, proportion of trips by train, = 5000 0.5657 =

2828.5 We can put all this in the form of a table as shown

below 4:
Table 4: Multinomial logit model problem: solution

coeff 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.1 0.1 - - - -

car 20 - - 18 4 2.8 0.06 0.1237 618.5
bus 30 5 3 6 - 1.88 0.15 0.3105 1552.5
train 12 10 2 4 - 1.28 0.28 0.5657 2828.5

$$
Fare collected from the mode bus = = 1552.5 6 =

9315
$$
Fare collected from mode train = = 2828.5 4 =

11314

Summary
Modal split is the third stage of travel demand modeling. The
choice of mode is influenced by various factors. Different types of
modal split models are there. Binary logit model and multinomial
logit model are dealt in detail in this chapter.

Problems

1. The total number of trips from zone to zone is 4200.

Currently all trips are made by car. Government has two

alternatives- to introduce a train or a bus. The travel
characteristics and respective coefficients are given in table 5.
Decide the best alternative in terms of trips carried.
Table 5: Trip characteristics

coefficient 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.2 0.2

car 25 - - 22 6
bus 35 8 6 8 -
train 17 14 5 6 -

Solution

First, use binary logit model to find the trips when there is only
car and bus. Then, again use binary logit model to find the trips
when there is only car and train. Finally compare both and see
which alternative carry maximum trips.
Cost of travel by car= = 6.85

Cost of travel by bus=

= 4.09
Cost of travel by trai=
= 2.96

Case 1: Considering introduction of bus, Probability of choosing

car, = 0.059
Probability of choosing bus, = 0.9403

Case 2: Considering introduction of train, Probability of choosing

car = 0.02003

Probability of choosing train = 0.979

Trips carried by each mode

Case 1: = 4200 0.0596 = 250.32 = 4200 0.9403 =

3949.546

Case 2: = 4200 0.02 = 84.00 = 4200 0.979 =

4115.8

Hence train will attract more trips, if it is introduced.

Bibliography

Prof. Tom V. Mathew 2011-08-08