Systems Theory,

Systems Thinking

Stephanie M. White, Ph.D.

Senior Professor
Long Island University
(LIU-Post)

IEEE Computer Society

DVP Talk
Tim Berners Lee, The Semantic Web
Oct. 3, 2012
 Outline
• What is systems thinking?
• A few of the important concepts
• Brief discussion of 3 methods based on system
thinking
Benefits:
• Improve your ability to analyze & solve problems
• Use these concepts & methods with your current
analysis methods

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 2

 What is a system?
• Simple definition: A group of interacting,
interrelated, or interdependent elements forming
a unified whole
S = (T,R), T:set of things; R is a relation
defined on T
• INCOSE definition can be found at
http://www.incose.org/practice/fellowsconsensus.as
px
• Natural systems
• Designed systems

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 3

 Systems thinking means understanding
connections & inter-dependencies
• Many people see the blog.dlvr.it/
world as “silos” or
“content bins”
• Few have skills in seeing
horizontal connections
• Our 3 approaches include
modeling which helps

“The spread of specialized deafness means that someone who

ought to know something that someone else knows isn't able
to find it out for lack of generalized ears.”(Boulding)

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 4

Types of systems with respect to methods of
thinking
Disorganized complexity
(Region of probability & statistics)
Randomness

Organized complexity
(Region of systems)

Organized
simplicity (machine)

Complexity
Based on Warren Weaver’s work
(from G.M. Weinberg, An Introduction to General Systems Thinking)
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 Supply Chain, an example
of organized complexity

http://www.wtgnews.com

When one part of the supply chain is disrupted,

it can affect the entire process

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 6

 Systems Thinking Concepts
• A few concepts of interest to both system
science & cybernetics
– Transformation
– Negative feedback
– Positive feedback
– Control (uses negative feedback)

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 Transformation (A B)
• State descriptions mathsteacher.com.au

• Process description
EXAMPLE
Start state: no circle; locus of center, radius
Desired state: a circle
Process description: procedure for drawing circle with
compass

Existing & desired states define the basis for survival

of organisms & organizations

6/5/2012 Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 8

 Transformation (Raytheon Sarcos
Exoskeleton)

http://www.raytheon.com/newsroom/rtnwcm/groups/pu
blic/documents/content/rtn08_exo_gallery_html.html

6/5/2012 Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 9

 Negative Feedback
• Negative feedback helps maintain stability in a
system. Fox eat rabbits. More fox mean fewer
rabbits. Fewer rabbits provide less food, so
fewer fox. With fewer fox, there will be
more rabbits, …

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 10

 Positive feedback
• Leads to indefinite expansion or explosion
– Chain reaction + # OF www.wikipedia.org
CATTLE
– Population explosion RUNNING
– Industrial expansion
STAMPEDE
– Capital invested at
compound interest +OVERALL
– Inflation LEVEL OF PANIC
– Spread of cancer cells
• Or total blocking - FUNDS &
SUPPORT
– Bankruptcy
– Economic depression CITY
BLIGHT
– City blight

6/5/2012 Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post - POPULATION 11

 Feedback

From Principia Cybernetica Web, http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/FEEDBACK.html

6/5/2012 Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 12

 Control
Control System
Controller

Perception Action

Controlled

http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/CONTROL.html

Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety: For appropriate

regulation, the variety of actions in the regulator
must be equal or greater than the variety of
actions in the system being regulated.
(consider a home heating system furnace)
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 Furnace Subsystem Control
(an example)
• Furnace
– Motor provides air for combustion & is turned on/off
– Valve provides fuel & must be opened/closed
– Ignition must ignite fuel
– To shut down delays are necessary so fuel is fully
consumed
• Controller
– Needs model of furnace or must “know” procedure

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 14

 Model of system in controller

http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/CONTROL.html

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 15

 Methods based on holistic thinking &
cybernetics
• Causal Loops & System Dynamics (Jay Forrester)
– For analyzing dynamic problems arising in complex social,
managerial, economic, or ecological systems
• Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) (Peter Checkland)
– For problem understanding
– Focus on making process of inquiry into real-world
complexity a system for learning
• Viable System Model (VSM) (Stafford Beer)
– For diagnosing & re-engineering organizations
– Organization structure, recursive sub-organizations, uses
“variety” reduction & amplification in component
interaction

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 16

 Laundry List Thinking versus Causal Loops
Laundry List Thinking
Good Each factor, or independent
Teachers variable, is assumed to exert its
Good Academic Success
impact independently on
Parenting Academic Success, the
dependent variable.
High
Motivation Good
Teachers

Dynamic View Good

Academic Success
Parenting
(Causal Loops)
Effect is also High
cause Motivation
High Performance Systems, “An Introduction to Systems Thinking”,
iseesystems.com/resources/Articles/STELLA_IST.pdf

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 17

 System Dynamics: Causal Loop
Diagram (example)

Binder et al, “Developing System Dynamics Models from Causal Loop Diagrams”, citeseerx.ist.psu.edu

6/5/2012 Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 18

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 19
 System Dynamics Model

High Performance Systems, “An Introduction to Systems Thinking”,

iseesystems.com/resources/Articles/STELLA_IST.pdf

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 20

 System Dynamics Model Component–
Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclones
TCIP : Tropical Cyclone Intensification Potential
TCIF: Tropical Cyclone Intensification Factor Vensim Model
H: Humidity
LAWS: Low-Altitude Wind Strength
TCO: Tropical Cyclone Occurrence
VWSP: Vertical Wind Shear Probability
VWSF: Vertical Wind Shear Factor
F: Frontal Systems Nearby
AP: Air Pressure

• TCIP is a stock variable that tracks the accumulation

of changing climate conditions as time progresses
• TCO monitors factors & records TC occurrence & dissipation
[Kris Frick, Undergraduate Honors Student, 2010
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 Kris Frick, Honors Thesis
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 Name Description Name Description
AMO Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation POL Total World Pollution
AP Air Pressure POLA Total Pollution Absorption
APOL Total Air Pollution POLAM Pollution Absorption per Microorganism
APOLA Air Pollution Absorption POLAT Pollution Absorption per Tree
AT Air Temperature POLG Total Pollution Generation
B Births POLGP Pollution Generation per Person
BR Birth Rate PPOLA Percent of POL in the Air
CC Daily Cloud Cover PPOLW Percent of POL in the Water
D Deaths SST Sea Surface Temperature
DR Death Rate SULF Atmospheric Sulfate
ENP El Niño/ El Niña Pattern SUN Yearly Solar Strength
ENS El Niño/ El Niña Strength T World Trees
F Frontal Systems Nearby TB Tree Births
GPV World Glacier & Permafrost Volume TCIF Tropical Cyclone Intensification Factor
H Humidity TCIP Tropical Cyclone Intensification Potential
LAWS Low-Altitude Wind Strength TCO Tropical Cyclone Occurrence
MB Microorganism Births TD Tree Deaths
MC Microorganism Concentration TDR Tree Deforestation Rate
MD Microorganism Deaths TI Thawing Ice
METHC Methane Concentration TRR Tree Replanting Rate
METHG Methane Gas Released V Volcanic Activity
MR Melting Rate VWSF Vertical Wind Shear Factor
O Ozone Layer Intactness VWSP Vertical Wind Shear Probability
P World Population WPOL Total Water Pollution
PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation WPOLA Water Pollution Absorption

Kris Frick, Elements of the Cyclone Model

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 23

 Soft Systems Methodology (SSM)
Customers
Actors
Transf. Process
Worldview
Owners
Environment-
constraints
RD: Do P, by Q in order
to help achieve R
RD 1. (Government Worldview) Create an efficient
streamlined ambulance system by using automation
to enable appropriate resources to be dispatched &
arrive with minimum delay
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 SSM Approach
2. Develop System
2.1 Develop
1.Appreciate External 1.
strategy
1.
Influences
2.2Organize to develop
1.1
& deliver system/services
. 2.4 Deliver
2.3Develop system/ser-
System/ser- vices
vices
2.1 “Take Control” activity
ensures the whole
3.2 Monitor all process is
activities
3.3Take control one of learning
& action
3.1 Define
monitoring
criteria 3. Take Control
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 1
Rich Picture, SSM
An attempt to
assemble everything
that might be relevant
to a complex situation

1 P. Checkland, Systems Theory, Systems Practice

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 Creating the CSC Dept. Business Plan
(Rich Picture)
Entities/Things
Our & Other Departments
Student Course of Study
Business Plan, …
Relationships
Criteria for Success
External Forces
Career Options
Economics
Marketing
Competitors
Off-Shoring

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 27

 Viable System Model (S. Beer)
“Cybernetics is the science of effective organizations”
• Organization is viable if it
can maintain a separate
existence (corp. division)
• System One: set of
embedded viable systems in
organization
• System Two: anti-oscillatory
device for System One
(“almost totally
misunderstood”)
• Management is a subsystem
of the viable system, not an
overlord
Image from www.wikipedia.org
Stafford Beer, DIAGNOSING THE SYSTEM for organizations, 1985.
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 Addressing variety
• Variety is a measure of
complexity, because it
counts the number of regulatory
Manage- center
possible states of the
system. ment
variety
• Because a situation has amplifier
variety
high variety, an agreed amplifier
low variety model of the variety
situation will be attenuator Oper-
addressed, e.g. at ations variety
attenuator
meeting.
S. Beer, DIAGNOSING THE SYSTEM for organizations, 1985

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Value of models for communicating
• Models built during Systems Thinking provides
raw material for Communicating
• Others can compare results to information
they possess & provide feedback
• Drives interdisciplinary learning
• Improves understanding of problem

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 30

 In conclusion
• Using Causal Loops & System Dynamics
– We model & simulate interactions among system
elements & avoid emergent problems when the
system, service or plan becomes operational
• Using Soft Systems Methodology(SSM)
– We learn about the whole problem under study, the
criteria for success, and all the influences and
constraints
• Using Viable System Model (VSM)
– We diagnose & control the organization & work
towards improving it

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 31

 Recommended reading
1. Gerald M. Weinberg, An Introduction to General
Systems Thinking, Dorset House, 2001
2. Jamshid Gharajedaghi, Systems Thinking, Managing
Chaos & Complexity, Morgan Kaufman, 2011
3. George Klir, Facets of Systems Science, IFSR
International Series on Systems Science and
Engineering, Vol. 7, Plenum Press, New York, 1991
4. John Sterman, Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking
and Modeling for a Complex World
5. Stafford Beer (VSM), Peter Checkland (SSM), W. Ross
Ashby (Cybernetics)
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 A few of many system & cybernetics
societies
• IEEE Systems Council
– Integrate IEEE activities regarding aspects of multiple disciplines and
specialty areas associated with the engineering of systems
• INCOSE
– Share, promote and advance the best of systems engineering from
across the globe for the benefit of humanity and the planet
• IEEE Systems, Man, & Cybernetics
– Field of Interest (abridged): Integration of the theories of
communication, control, cybernetics, systems, and human-factors
engineering.
• IEEE Computer Society TC - Engineering of Computer Based Systems
– Research relating to analysis, design, development, deployment, and
evolution of cyber-physical systems

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 33

 A few of many system & cybernetics
societies, p.2
• International Society for the System Sciences (formerly GSR)
– The ISSS is a society of professionals from diverse endeavors, drawn together
by a common interest: understanding & interacting systemically with reality.
Scope includes practical application of systems methodologies to problem
solving.
• American Society for Cybernetics
– The advancement of cybernetics as a science, a discipline, a meta-discipline,
and a practice
• International Federation for Systems Research
– Advance cybernetic and systems research and systems applications and to
serve the international systems community
• System Dynamics Society
– An international organization devoted to encouraging the development and
use of systems thinking and system dynamics around the world
• World Organization of Systems & Cybernetics
– A federation of national associations and institutions devoted to systems or
cybernetics; 34 societies in 22 nations, but 37 nations involved

6/5/2012 © Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 34

 Questions, Comments,
& Discussion

6/5/2012 Stephanie M. White, LIU-Post 35