M PRA

Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Analyzing U.S. Tariff Effects: An Event

Study on Greek Energy Companies

Gazilas, Emmanouil Taxiarchis

University Of Piraeus

10 April 2025

Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/124354/
MPRA Paper No. 124354, posted 15 Apr 2025 07:29 UTC
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Analyzing U.S. Tariff Effects: An Event

Study on Greek Energy Companies

Emmanouil Taxiarchis Gazilas, University of Piraeus

[email protected]

ABSTRACT
This study examines the short-term stock market response of eleven Greek energy firms to
the April 2, 2025, U.S. tariff announcement. Using an event study methodology over an
11-day window, results reveal limited reaction on the event day but significant negative
abnormal returns in the days that followed. A temporary rebound occurred, though not
sustained. The findings highlight the sensitivity of small-market energy firms to
international trade policy shocks, even when not directly targeted.

Keywords: Event study; U.S. tariffs; Greek energy firms; Trade policy shocks

JEL Codes: F13; G14; Q40

1. Introduction

On April 2, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a comprehensive tariff
plan, proposing a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, with significantly higher rates
imposed on selected countries. Referred to as “Liberation Day,” the announcement raised
renewed concerns over protectionist trade policies and the potential resurgence of global
trade conflicts. The announcement had larger ramifications for global markets, especially

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in industries and areas that were indirectly vulnerable to international trade frictions, even
if the policy's primary aim was big countries like China and the European Union.

When evaluating such spillover impacts, Greek energy companies make a compelling case
(Belesis & Gazilas, 2023; Gazilas, 2023). Although Greece and the United States do not
have substantial direct trade volumes, a number of energy businesses that are listed on the
Athens Stock Exchange export technologies, metals, industrial materials, and refined fuels
to international markets. For these companies, the possibility of higher U.S. tariffs added
to the uncertainty surrounding international trade flows, profitability, and investor
expectations.

The short-term stock market reaction of eleven Greek energy companies to the
announcement of the 2025 U.S. tariff is assessed in this study using an event study
technique. In order to minimize the impact of unrelated developments and capture early
market reactions, the research concentrates on a small window of five trading days prior
to and following the event. The analysis attempts to ascertain whether the announcement
significantly affected stock valuations in this industry by calculating abnormal returns in
comparison to market expectations.

The methodological framework adheres to previous research on Greek market event

studies. A similar framework was used by Polemis and Soursou (2020) to evaluate how
the COVID-19 lockout announcement affected Greek energy supplies. By analyzing the
financial market effects of a trade policy shock as opposed to a public health emergency,
the current study expands on the empirical literature and builds upon the robustness
principles put forward by Fotis et al. (2011). This research is further motivated by findings
by Fu and Shen (2020), which highlight how susceptible the performance of the energy
industry is to worldwide disruptions.

2. Data and Methodology

Using data from the Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX), this study examines the short-term
effects of the 2025 U.S. tariff announcement on the stock performance of eleven Greek
energy companies. The selection of the companies’ sample for examination was based on
their direct involvement in the industrial or energy sectors and their active trading status.
The list of companies used in the sample is shown in Table 1.

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Table 1. Greek Energy Firms Used in Sample

Company Name Ticker

Mytilineos S.A. MYTIL
Revoil S.A. REVOIL
Public Power Corporation S.A. PPC
ADMIE Holdings S.A. ADMIE
Hellenic Petroleum S.A. ELPE
Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. MOH
Elinoil Hellenic Petroleum S.A. ELIN
Cenergy Holdings S.A. CENER
Ellaktor S.A. ELLAKTOR
AVAX S.A. AVAX
Terna Energy S.A. TENERGY
Source: Author

The necessary information, which includes daily closing prices for the sample companies,
which acts as the standard for performance across the market, was gathered from the
Athens Stock Exchange's (ASE) official website. A panel of 121 firm-day observations
was formed for the event study, consisting of 11 firms observed over an 11-day window.
The event of interest is former President Donald Trump's April 2, 2025, public presentation
of a new U.S. trade policy that introduced a universal 10% tariff on all imports, alongside
additional country-specific measures. The event window, denoted as [−5, +5], spans five
trading days before and after the announcement date, capturing immediate market
reactions. Abnormal returns were calculated using the market model, while expected
returns will be estimated over a 100-day estimation window (from day −105 to −6) in
future extensions of the study.

Returns are computed using the natural logarithmic difference in closing prices:

𝑃𝑖,𝑡
𝑹𝒊,𝒕 = ln ( ) (1)
𝑃𝑖,𝑡−1

where 𝑹𝒊,𝒕 is the return of firm 𝑖 on day 𝑡 and 𝑃𝑖,𝑡 is the closing price of firm 𝑖 on that day.

Before specifying the return-generating model, it is noted that robustness checks were
conducted using both the Mean Adjusted Return Model (MEARM) and the Market

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Adjusted Return Model (MARM). These models were used to make sure that the return
specification had no effect on the outcomes. The results based on MEARM and MARM
are not included and are not available upon request due to data access restrictions related
to third-party processing environments. However, both models yielded patterns broadly
consistent with the market model findings.

This study uses the market model as its primary specification. Its application is in line
with the efficient market hypothesis and rational expectations theories, which postulate
that markets react to new information accurately and quickly. The market model is stated
as follows, following the methodology put forth by Fotis et al. (2011):

𝑹𝒊,𝒕 = α𝑖 + β𝑖 𝑅𝑚,𝑡 + ε𝑖,𝑡 (2)

Where 𝑅𝑚,𝑡 represents the ASE index return, 𝛼𝑖 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝛽𝑖 are the intercept and slope
parameters estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) over the estimation window, and
𝜀𝑖,𝑡 is the error term capturing firm-specific effects.

The abnormal return (AR) for firm 𝑖 on day 𝑡 is defined as the deviation of the actual return
from the expected return given by the market model:

𝑨𝑹𝒊,𝒕 = 𝑅𝑖,𝑡 − (α̂𝑖 + β̂𝑖 𝑅𝑚,𝑡 ) (3)

To evaluate the overall market reaction, the average abnormal return (AAR) across the
sample of 𝑁 firms is computed for each day in the event window:

𝑁
1
𝑨𝑨𝑹𝒕 = ∑ 𝐴𝑅𝑖,𝑡 (4)
𝑁
𝑖=1

Additionally, cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) for each firm over the window from 𝑡1
to 𝑡2 are calculated as:

𝑡2

𝑪𝑨𝑹𝒊,(𝒕𝟏 ,𝒕𝟐) = ∑ 𝐴𝑅𝑖,𝑡 (5)

𝑡=𝑡1

The cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) is derived by averaging the CARs across
all firms:

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𝑁
1
𝑪𝑨𝑨𝑹(𝒕𝟏 ,𝒕𝟐 ) = ∑ 𝐶𝐴𝑅𝑖,(𝑡1 ,𝑡2) (6)
𝑁
𝑖=1

In this study, the primary event window is symmetric, with 𝑡1 = −5 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡2 = 5. The
AAR and CAAR measures provide both daily and aggregate insights into market behavior
following the trade policy announcement. Finally, standard parametric t-tests are used to
assess statistical significance. These tests determine whether the reported aberrant returns
show a significant deviation from zero, indicating a market reaction. The economic
significance of the event and the enterprises' exposure to global trade are taken into
consideration when interpreting the test findings for ARs, AARs, and CAARs.

3. Results and Discussion

Our estimates indicate that the U.S. tariff announcement influenced the Greek energy firms
differently across the event window. As seen in Table 2, the reaction of each firm varies in
timing, magnitude, and direction, with post-event days showing the strongest responses for
most companies.

Starting from five days prior to the event (Event Day –5), AVAX appears to be the most
negatively affected with an AR of –9%, while ELLAKTOR and ADMIE posted mild
positive returns of 2% and 1%, respectively. MYTIL and PPC also recorded abnormal
returns of 1%, suggesting early signs of positioning by investors. REVOIL and ELIN were
already in decline, with ARs of –2%.

On Event Day –4, the reactions were still moderate. MYTIL and ELPE each recorded ARs
of 1%, while CENER and AVAX showed negative ARs of –1% and –2%, respectively.
TENERGY remained stable across the early window, with small fluctuations near zero.

As we move to Event Day –3, the effects became more pronounced. ADMIE and PPC
experienced strong ARs of 5%, while CENER and ELLAKTOR also improved by 3% and
2%, respectively. MYTIL recorded a steady gain of 1%, contrasting with ongoing
weakness in REVOIL and ELIN. The clustering of positive ARs during this day may
indicate speculative anticipation of the forthcoming announcement.

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On Event Day –2, most firms saw a marked shift in sentiment. ELPE and MOH posted
ARs of –3%, while CENER, AVAX, and ELLAKTOR fell by –3% to –6%. PPC and
ADMIE each declined by –2%, and ELIN also posted a negative AR of –1%. This
consistent downturn suggests broader concerns ahead of the announcement.

Interestingly, Event Day –1 showed some signs of recovery. PPC and ADMIE both gained
4%, while ELPE and MOH posted positive ARs of 1%. ELLAKTOR also recorded a 1%
increase. In contrast, MYTIL dropped –1%, while CENER and ELIN remained unchanged.
This divergence across firms illustrates market uncertainty and mixed expectations.

During the event day (Event Day 0), the reaction was modest. PPC and ADMIE posted
mild increases of 2%, and most firms fluctuated within a narrow range of ±1%. CENER,
however, registered a negative AR of –1%. The absence of ‘dramatic’ responses indicates
that the market may have partially anticipated the announcement or awaited more clarity
on its implementation.

From Event Day +1 onward, market sentiment became notably more negative. MOH
dropped –4%, AVAX –2%, and CENER –2%, while ELIN continued its decline at –1%.
REVOIL also showed a reduction of –2%, and ADMIE remained flat. Most firms recorded
stagnant or slightly negative ARs, signaling hesitation in the immediate aftermath.

Event Day +2 marked the beginning of a broader sell-off. ADMIE and PPC both declined
by –7%, while MOH and CENER fell by –6%. AVAX posted –7%, ELPE –4%, and ELIN
–3%. The synchronous pattern across several firms reflects increased perceived exposure
to international market volatility following the policy announcement.

The strongest negative movement occurred on Event Day +3. REVOIL recorded the
steepest drop of –12%, followed by ELLAKTOR at –11%, PPC and ADMIE at –8%, and
MYTIL at –10%. ELPE and CENER each showed declines of –7%, and MOH registered
–5%. This widespread contraction highlights investor concern over the broader
implications of the U.S. tariffs, even in economies not directly targeted.

A sharp rebound followed on Event Day +4. MYTIL recovered by 11%, AVAX by 10%,
and PPC by 6%. ELPE, MOH, and ADMIE also posted gains of 6%, with ELIN and
CENER at 5%. ELLAKTOR returned 9%. The magnitude and consistency of this rebound
suggest a market reassessment or technical correction after the prior day’s sell-off.

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However, this momentum did not fully hold. On Event Day +5, many firms reversed
course. CENER declined by –4%, PPC by –3%, ADMIE and ELPE by –3%, and AVAX
by –4%. ELIN posted –7%, while MOH and MYTIL showed minor losses. These
movements imply lingering uncertainty, despite the brief optimism seen the day before.

To sum up, the tariff announcement triggered significant but delayed reactions in the Greek
energy sector. The most severe negative ARs appeared not on the event day itself, but on
Days +2 and +3. Recovery followed on Day +4, though it was not sustained. Among all
firms, REVOIL, ADMIE, PPC, and MYTIL showed the strongest post-event volatility,
while CENER and AVAX were also notably affected. The post-announcement sell-off and
partial rebound align with patterns observed in earlier studies on international shock
transmission in small open economies.

4. Conclusions

The results of this study indicate that the 2025 U.S. tariff announcement affected Greek
energy firms asymmetrically and with a delayed market response. While the event day
itself did not trigger strong reactions, abnormal returns became significantly negative
during the two to three days that followed. Firms such as REVOIL, MYTIL, PPC, and
ADMIE experienced the largest declines, reflecting market concerns about the broader
implications of global trade disruptions. The sharp rebound observed on Event Day +4,
followed by renewed weakness on Day +5, suggests that investor sentiment remained
volatile and uncertain.

All things considered, the pattern of responses supports the idea that perceived exposure
to foreign markets may have an effect on businesses that are not directly covered by a trade
policy. The data demonstrates how foreign policy shocks can affect small open economies
and demonstrates how Greek energy companies are susceptible to both domestic and
international trade dynamics. These results highlight the significance of keeping an eye
on global policy signals in financial markets and are consistent with earlier event studies
in the literature.

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Table 2. Abnormal returns of the sample companies

Event Day MYTIL REVOIL PPC ADMIE ELPE MOH ELIN CENER ELLAKTOR AVAX TENERGY

-5 1% -2% ** 1% *** 1% ** 0% 0% -2% -1% ** 2% *** -9% * 0%**

-4 1% *** -2% 1% ** 1% 1% *** 0%* -1% -1% ** 0% * -2% ** 0%**

-3 1% ** -1% 5% 5% 0% 0% -2% 3% *** 2% * 0% 0%*

-2 -3% -2% * -2% *** -2% -3% ** -3% ** -1% ** -3% -3% -6% * 0%**

-1 -1% * 1% 4% * 4% 1% *** 1% ** 0% -1% ** 1% ** 1% 0%

0 1% 0%* 2% * 2% ** 0% 0%* 0% ** -1% *** 1% 0% *** 0%*

1 0% -2% ** 0% 0% ** -2% -4% -1% ** -2% -3% -2% * 0%**

2 -3% -2% ** -7% -7% * -4% -6% -3% -6% -6% -7% 0%

3 -10% -12% * -8% ** -8% -7% ** -5% -6% ** -7% ** -11% *** -10% * 0%*

4 11% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% * 5% 5% 9% * 10% 0%

5 -3% -2% -3% * -3% ** -3% ** -2% ** -7% -4% *** -3% -4% ** 0%*

*Note: This table presents the abnormal returns of the sample companies at different time windows. Denotes statistical significance at
* p <0.01, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.1.

Source: Author's Estimations

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5. References

1. Belesis, N., & Gazilas, E. T. (2023). The Financial Performance And Macroeconomic
Dynamics In The Greek Retail Landscape. Aktual'ni Problemy Ekonomiky= Actual
Problems in Economics, (269), 6-25. https://doi.org/10.32752/1993-6788-2023-1-269-
6-25.

2. Fotis, P. N., Polemis, M. L., & Zevgolis, N. E. (2011). Robust event studies for
derogation from suspension of concentrations in Greece during the period 1995–2008.
Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 11(1), 67–89.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10842-010-0070-5.

3. Fu, M., & Shen, H. (2020). COVID-19 and corporate performance in the energy
industry. Energy Research Letters, 1(1), 12967. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.12967.

4. Gazilas, E. T. (2023). Financial Assessment Of Greece's Top 10 Energy Enterprises

Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic. Finance & Accounting Research Journal, 5(9), 271-
286. https://doi.org/10.51594/farj.v5i9.

5. Polemis, M. L., & Soursou, S. (2020). Assessing the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic on the Greek energy firms: An event study analysis. Energy Research
Letters, 1(3), 17238. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.17238.

©️ Copyright: Gazilas E.T., 2025