9709/62/F/M/16/Q2

1 A flower shop has 5 yellow roses, 3 red roses and 2 white roses. Martin chooses 3 roses at random.
Draw up the probability distribution table for the number of white roses Martin chooses. [4]

9709/61/M/J/16/Q4
2 A box contains 2 green sweets and 5 blue sweets. Two sweets are taken at random from the box,
without replacement. The random variable X is the number of green sweets taken. Find E X
and
Var X
. [6]
9709/62/M/J/16/Q3
3 A particular type of bird lays 1, 2, 3 or 4 eggs in a nest each year. The probability of x eggs is equal
to kx, where k is a constant.

(i) Draw up a probability distribution table, in terms of k, for the number of eggs laid in a year and
find the value of k. [3]

(ii) Find the mean and variance of the number of eggs laid in a year by this type of bird. [3]

9709/63/M/J/16/Q3
4 Two ordinary fair dice are thrown. The resulting score is found as follows.
• If the two dice show different numbers, the score is the smaller of the two numbers.
• If the two dice show equal numbers, the score is 0.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for the score. [4]

(ii) Calculate the expected score. [2]

9709/61/O/N/16/Q2
5 Two fair six-sided dice with faces numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are thrown and the two scores are noted.
The difference between the two scores is defined as follows.
• If the scores are equal the difference is zero.
• If the scores are not equal the difference is the larger score minus the smaller score.

Find the expectation of the difference between the two scores. [5]
9709/62/O/N/16/Q2
6 Noor has 3 T-shirts, 4 blouses and 5 jumpers. She chooses 3 items at random. The random variable
X is the number of T-shirts chosen.

27 .
(i) Show that the probability that Noor chooses exactly one T-shirt is 55 [3]

(ii) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [4]

9709/62/F/M/17/Q6
7 Pack A consists of ten cards numbered 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3. Pack B consists of six cards
numbered 0, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2. One card is chosen at random from each pack. The random variable X
is defined as the sum of the two numbers on the cards.
2.
(i) Show that P X = 2
= 15 [2]
(ii) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [4]
(iii) Given that X = 3, find the probability that the card chosen from pack A is a 1. [3]
9709/62/M/J/17/3
8 In a probability distribution the random variable X takes the value x with probability kx2 , where k is
a constant and x takes values −2, −1, 2, 4 only.

(i) Show that P X = −2
has the same value as P X = 2
. [1]
(ii) Draw up the probability distribution table for X , in terms of k, and find the value of k. [3]
(iii) Find E X
. [2]

9709/61/O/N/17/Q1
9 The discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution.

x 1 2 3 6
P X = x
0.15 p 0.4 q

Given that E X
= 3.05, find the values of p and q. [4]

9709/62/O/N/17/Q3
10 A box contains 6 identical-sized discs, of which 4 are blue and 2 are red. Discs are taken at random
from the box in turn and not replaced. Let X be the number of discs taken, up to and including the
first blue one.
1.
(i) Show that P X = 3
= 15 [2]
(ii) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]
9709/63/O/N/17/Q4
11 A fair die with faces numbered 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6 is thrown. The score, X , is found by squaring the
number on the face the die shows and then subtracting 4.

(i) Draw up a table to show the probability distribution of X . [3]

(ii) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]
9709/62/F/M/18/Q4
12 The discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution.

x −2 0 1 3 4
P X = x
0.2 0.1 p 0.1 q

(i) Given that E X
= 1.7, find the values of p and q. [4]

(ii) Find Var X
. [2]
9709/61/M/J/18/Q3
13 Andy
has
4
red
socks
and
8
black
socks
in
his
drawer.
He
takes
2
socks
at
random
from
his
drawer.

(i) Find the probability that the socks taken are of different colours. [2]
The random variable X is the number of red socks taken.

(ii) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(iii) Find E X
. [1]
9709/62/M/J/18/Q4
14 Mrs Rupal chooses 3 animals at random from 5 dogs and 2 cats. The random variable X is the number
of cats chosen.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [4]

(ii) You are given that E X
= 6. Find the value of Var X
. [2]
7
9709/63/M/J/18/Q5
15 A game is played with 3 coins, A, B and C. Coins A and B are biased so that the probability of
obtaining a head is 0.4 for coin A and 0.75 for coin B. Coin C is not biased. The 3 coins are thrown
once.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for the number of heads obtained. [5]
(ii) Hence calculate the mean and variance of the number of heads obtained. [3]
9709/61/O/N/18/Q2
16 A random variable X has the probability distribution shown in the following table, where p is a
constant.

x −1 0 1 2 4
P X = x
p p 2p 2p 0.1

(i) Find the value of p. [1]

(ii) Given that E X
= 1.15, find Var X
. [2]
9709/62/O/N/18/Q6
17 A fair red spinner has 4 sides, numbered 1, 2, 3, 4. A fair blue spinner has 3 sides, numbered 1, 2, 3.
When a spinner is spun, the score is the number on the side on which it lands. The spinners are spun
at the same time. The random variable X denotes the score on the red spinner minus the score on the
blue spinner.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(ii) Find Var X
. [3]
(iii) Find the probability that X is equal to 1, given that X is non-zero. [3]
9709/63/O/N/18/Q2
18 A fair 6-sided die has the numbers −1, −1, 0, 0, 1, 2 on its faces. A fair 3-sided spinner has edges
numbered −1, 0, 1. The die is thrown and the spinner is spun. The number on the uppermost face of
the die and the number on the edge on which the spinner comes to rest are noted. The sum of these
two numbers is denoted by X .
(i) Draw up a table showing the probability distribution of X . [3]
(ii) Find Var X
. [3]
9709/62/F/M/19/Q4
19 The random variable X takes the values −1, 1, 2, 3 only. The probability that X takes the value x is
kx2 , where k is a constant.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for X , in terms of k, and find the value of k. [3]
(ii) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]
9709/63/M/J/19/Q6
20 A fair five-sided spinner has sides numbered 1, 1, 1, 2, 3. A fair three-sided spinner has sides numbered
1, 2, 3. Both spinners are spun once and the score is the product of the numbers on the sides the
spinners land on.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for the score. [4]
(ii) Find the mean and the variance of the score. [3]
(iii) Find the probability that the score is greater than the mean score. [2]
 9709/61/O/N/19/Q4
21 In a probability distribution the random variable X takes the values −1, 0, 1, 2, 4. The probability
distribution table for X is as follows.

x −1 0 1 2 4
P X = x
1 p p 3 4p
4 8

(i) Find the value of p. [2]

(ii) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]

9709/62/O/N/19/Q5
22 A fair red spinner has four sides, numbered 1, 2, 3, 3. A fair blue spinner has three sides, numbered
−1, 0, 2. When a spinner is spun, the score is the number on the side on which it lands. The spinners
are spun at the same time. The random variable X denotes the score on the red spinner minus the
score on the blue spinner.

(i) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [4]

(ii) Find Var X
. [3]
9709/63/O/N/19/Q6
23 A box contains 3 red balls and 5 white balls. One ball is chosen at random from the box and is not
returned to the box. A second ball is now chosen at random from the box.

(i) Find the probability that both balls chosen are red. [1]
(ii) Show that the probability that the balls chosen are of different colours is 15
28
. [2]
(iii) Given that the second ball chosen is red, find the probability that the first ball chosen is red. [2]
The random variable X denotes the number of red balls chosen.

(iv) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [2]

(v) Find Var X
. [3]
9709/52/F/M/20/Q2
24 An ordinary fair die is thrown repeatedly until a 1 or a 6 is obtained.

(a) Find the probability that it takes at least 3 throws but no more than 5 throws to obtain a 1 or a 6.
[3]
On another occasion, this die is thrown 3 times. The random variable X is the number of times that
a 1 or a 6 is obtained.

(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(c) Find E X
. [2]
9709/52/M/J/20/Q5
25 A fair three-sided spinner has sides numbered 1, 2, 3. A fair five-sided spinner has sides numbered
1, 1, 2, 2, 3. Both spinners are spun once. For each spinner, the number on the side on which it
lands is noted. The random variable X is the larger of the two numbers if they are different, and their
common value if they are the same.

(a) Show that P X = 3
= 15 7. [2]

(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]
(c) Find E X
and Var X
. [3]
 9709/53/M/J/20/Q4
26 A fair four-sided spinner has edges numbered 1, 2, 2, 3. A fair three-sided spinner has edges numbered
−2, −1, 1. Each spinner is spun and the number on the edge on which it comes to rest is noted. The
random variable X is the sum of the two numbers that have been noted.

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(b) Find Var X
. [3]

9709/51/O/N/20/Q4
27 The random variable X takes each of the values 1, 2, 3, 4 with probability 14 . Two independent values
of X are chosen at random. If the two values of X are the same, the random variable Y takes that
value. Otherwise, the value of Y is the larger value of X minus the smaller value of X .

(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for Y . [4]

(b) Find the probability that Y = 2 given that Y is even. [2]
9709/52/O/N/20/Q2
28 A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. Sadie takes 3 balls at random from the bag, without
replacement. The random variable X represents the number of red balls that she takes.

15 .
(a) Show that the probability that Sadie takes exactly 1 red ball is 56 [2]
(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]
(c) Given that E X
= 15
8
, find Var X
. [2]
9709/53/O/N/20/Q6
29 Three coins A, B and C are each thrown once.
³ Coins A and B are each biased so that the probability of obtaining a head is 32 .
³ Coin C is biased so that the probability of obtaining a head is 54 .

(a) Show that the probability of obtaining exactly 2 heads and 1 tail is 94 . [3]
The random variable X is the number of heads obtained when the three coins are thrown.

(b) Draw up the probability distribution table for X . [3]

(c) Given that E X
= 32 , find Var X
. [2]
15
 Chp 4 - MS
9709/62/F/M/16/Q2
1 No of W 0 1 2 B1 0, 1, 2, seen in table with attempt at prob.
Prob
rob 42 42/90 6/90

P(0) = 8/10 × 7/9 × 6/8 = 42/90 M1 3-

3-factor prob seen with different denom
P(1W) = P(W,NW, NW) × 3 = 2/10 × 8/9 × 7/8
×3 M1 Mult by 3
= 42/90
P(2W) = P(W, W, NW) × 3 = 2/10 × 1/9 × 8/8 A1 4 All correct
×3
= 6/90

9709/61/M/J/16/Q4
2 [P(X = 0)] = P(B, B) = 5/7×4/6 = 10/21 M1 Attempt to find P(0) or P(1) or P(2) can
be seen as P(BB) etc. or table
unsimplified
[P(X = 1)] = P(G,B) + P(B,G) = 2/7×5/6 ×2 A1 P(1) or P(BG)+P(GB) correct
= 10/21
[P(X = 2] = P(G, G) = 2/7×1/6 = 1/21 A1 P(0) or P(2) correct must see X value

E(X) = 0 + 10/21 + 2/21 = 4/7 (0.571) B1 Correct answer ft their probs P(1) and
P(2)

Var(X) = 0 + 10/21 + 4/21 – (4/7)2 M1 Attempt at Σx2p – [E(X)]2

= 50/147 (0.340) A1 [6]

9709/62/M/J/16/Q3

3 (i)
x 1 2 3 4 B1 Probability Distribution Table, either k or
P(x) k 2kk 3k 4k correct numerical values
10k = 1 M1 Summing probs involving k to = 1, 3 or 4
terms
k = 1/10 A1 [3]

(ii) E(X) = 1/10 + 4/10 + 9/10 + 16/10 = 3 B1 Correct mean

Var(X) = 1/10 + 8/10 + 27/10 + 64/10 – 32 M1 Correct method seen for var, their k and µ
=1 A1 [3]

9709/63/M/J/16/Q3
4 (i) P(0) = 6/36, P(1) = 10/36, P(2) = 8/36 B1 Table oe seen with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (6 if
P(6) = 0)
B1 Any three probs correct
M1 Σ p = 1 and at least 3 outcomes
P(3) = 6/36, P(4) = 4/36, P(5) = 2/36 A1 [4] All probs correct

(ii) mean score = (0×6+1×10 +16 +18 +16+10)/36 M1 Using Σxp (unsimplified) on its own –
condone
Σ p not =1
= 70/36 (35/18, 1.94) A1 [2]
9709/61/O/N/16/Q2

5 diff 0 1 2 3 4 5 B1 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 seen in table

heading or considering all
prob 6/36 10/36 8/36 6/36 4/36 2/36
different differences
M1 Attempt at finding prob of any
difference
A1 1 correct prob
Expectation = (0+10+16+18+16+10)/36 M1 Probs summing to 1
= 70/36
= 1.94 A1 [5]

9709/62/O/N/16/Q2
3
C1 × 9C2 B1 Correct num unsimplified
6 (i) P(1 T-shirt) = 12
C3 B1 Correct denom unsimplified
= 27/55 AG B1 [3] Answer given, so process needs to be convincing

OR 3/12×9/11×8/10×3C1oe M1 Mult 3 probs diff denoms (not a/3 x b/4 x c/5)

M1 Mult by 3C1 oe
= 27/55 AG A1 Answer given, so process needs to be convincing

(ii) X 0 1 2 3 B1 0, 1, 2, 3 only seen in top line (condone

additional values if Prob stated as 0)
Prob 84/220 27/55 27/220 1/220
B1 One correct prob, correctly placed in table
B1 One other correct prob, correctly placed in table
B1 [4] One other correct prob ft Σp = 1, 4 values in table
 9709/62/F/M/17/Q6
7(i) P(2) = P(0,2) = 2/10 × 4/6 M1 Mult 2 probs seen (or complete listing of all options)

= 2/15 AG A1 Correct answer legit obtained

Total: 2

(ii) x 0 1 3 5 B1 Correct values for x in table. Any additional

values must have P(x)=0 stated
P(X=x) 2/30 5/30 4/30 13/30 6/30

B1 One correct prob other than P(2) or P(3)

B1 Correct P(3)

B1 All correct

Total: 4

(iii) P ( A1 ∩ Sum3) 5 / 10 × 4 / 6 M1 Attempt at P(A1∩ Sum 3) as num or denom of

P( A1 Sum 3) = = a fraction, can be by counting
P ( Sum 3) 13 / 30

M1 Their P(3) from (ii) as num or denom of a fraction

= 10/13(0.769) A1

Total: 3
 9709/62/M/J/17/Q3
8(i) k (–2)2 is the same as k (2)2 = 4k B1 need to see –22 k, 22k and 4k, algebraically
correct expressions OE

Total: 1

(ii) x –2 –1 2 4 B1 –2, -1, 2, 4 only seen in a table, together

with at least one attempted probability
Prob
Pr k k 4k 16k involving k

4k + k + 4k + 16k = 1 M1 Summing 4 probs equating to 1. Must all

be positive (table not required)

k = 1/25 (0.04) A1 CWO

Total: 3

(iii) E(X) = –8k + –k + 8k + 64k = 63k using Σpx unsimplified. FT their k

M1
substituted before this stage, no
inappropriate dividing
= 63/25 (2.52) A1

Total: 2

9709/61/O/N/17/Q1

9 p + q = 0.45 M1 Equation involving ΣP(x) = 1

0.15+ 2p + 1.2 + 6q = 3.05 M1 Equation using E(X) = 3.05

q = 0.2 M1 Solving simultaneous equations to one variable

p = 0.25 A1 Both answers correct

4
 9709/62/O/N/17/Q3

10(i) EITHER: (M1 2 1 4

2 1 4 probabilities in order × × , p, q, r ⩽ 6 and
P(X = 3) = P(RRB) = × × p q r p⩾ q ⩾ r, r ⩾ 4,
6 5 4 4
accept × 1 as .
r

1 A1) Needs either P(RRB) OE stated or identified on

= AG tree diagram.
15

OR1: (M1 4
C1 4
C2 4
C1 probabilities stated clearly, × 4
or × 1 or ×
P(X = 3) = P(RRB) = 6 2 × C1 4
C2 4
C1 included

1 A1) Needs either P(RRB) OE stated or identified on

= AG tree diagram.
15

OR2: (M1 2
C1 1
C1 4
C1
2
C1 C 1 4
C1 probabilities in order p
× q
× r
p, q,
P(X = 3) = P(RRB) = × 5 1 × C1 C1 C1 r ⩽ 6
6 4
C1 C1 C1 p ⩾ q⩾ r, r ⩾ 4 and
4
C 4
(× 4 1 or × 1 or × acceptable)
C1 4
Needs either P(RRB) OE stated or identified on
= 1/15 AG A1)
tree diagram.
2
Probability distribution table drawn with at least 2
(ii) 4 2 B1 correct x values and at least 1 probability.
P(1) = P(B) = ( = 0.667)
6 3 All probabilities 0 ⩽ p < 1.
2 4 4 P(1) or P(2) correct unsimplified, or better, and
P(2) = P(RB) = × = (= 0.267) B1
6 5 15 identified.
2 1 4 1 B1 All probabilities in table, evaluated correctly OE.
P(3) = P(RRB) = × × = (= 0.0667)
6 5 4 15 Additional x values must have a stated probability
of 0
x 1 2 3
P 10 4 1
15 15 15

3
 9709/63/O/N/17/Q4

11(i) x –3 0 B1 At least 3 different correct values of X (can be unsimplified)

Prob 1/6 1/2 1/6 1/6 B1 Four correct probabilities in a Probability Distribution table

B1 Correct probs with correct values of X

(i
4(ii) X) = –3/6 5/6 + 32/6 = 34/6 = 17/3 (5.67) M1 Subst their attempts at scores in correct formula as long as
‘probs’ sum to 1

Var(X) = 9/6 + 25/6 + 1024/6 – (34/6)2 M1 Subst their attempts at scores in correct var formula

A1 Both answers correct

 1298 
= 144  
 9 

9709/62/F/M/18/Q4
12(i) Σp = 1: 0.2 + 0.1 + p + 0.1 + q = 1: p+ q = 0.6 M1 Unsimplified sum of probabilities equated to 1

Σpx = 1.7: −0.4 + 0 + p + 0.3 + 4q = 1.7: M1 Unsimplified Sum of px equated to 1.7

p + 4q = 1.8 M1 Solve simult. equations to find expression in p or q

p = 0.2, q = 0.4 A1

(ii) Var(X) = Σpx2 −1.72 = 4x0.2 + 1p + 9x0.1 + 16q – 1.72 M1 Use correct unsimplified expression for variance
= 8.3 −2.89

= 5.41 A1
9709/61/M/J/18/Q3

13(i) 4 8 8 4 M1 Multiply 2 probs together and summing two 2-factor probs, unsimplified,
P(RB) + P(BR) = × + × oe condone replacement
12 11 12 11

64 16 A1 Correct answer
P(diff colours) = ( ) (0.485) oe
132 33

Method 2 M1 Multiply 2 probs together and subtracting two 2-factor probs from 1,
4 3 8 7 unsimplified, condone replacement
1 – P(BB) – P(RR) = 1 – × – ×
12 11 12 11

64 16 A1 Correct answer
P(diff colours) = ( ) oe
132 33

Method 3 M1 Multiply 2 combs together and dividing by a combination

( 4 C1 × 8 C1 )
P(diff colours) = 12
C2

16 A1 Correct answer
=
33

(ii) Number of red socks 0 1 2 B1 Prob distribution table drawn, top row correct, condone additional values
with p = 0 stated
Prob 14 16 3
33 33 33

B1 P(0) or P(2) correct to 3sf (need not be in table)

B1 All probs correct to 3sf, condone P(0) and P(2) swapped if correct

(iii) 16 3 16 6 22 2 B1ft ft their table if 0, 1, 2 only, 0 < p < 1

E(X) = 1 × + × = + = ( )
33 33 33 33 33 3

1
9709/62/M/J/18/Q4
14(i) X 0 B1 Prob distribution table drawn, top row correct with at least one probability
0 < p < 1 entered, condone additional values with p = 0 stated
Prob 2 4 1
7 7 7

5 4 3 2 B1 One probability correct (need not be in table)

P(0) = × × = (0.2857)
7 6 5 7

2 5 4 3 4 B1 Another probability correct (need not be in table).

P(1) = × × × C1 = (0.5713)
7 6 5 7

2 1 1 B1 Values in table, all probs correct (to 3SF) or 3 probabilities summing to 1

P(2) = × × × 3C2 = (0.1429)
7 6 5 7

(ii) 4 1 6 2 M1 Unsimplified correct numerical expression for variance

Var (X) = 1 × + × – ) or their probabilities from (i) 0 < p < 1 in unsimplified variance
7 7 7
8 6 2 expression
= – )
7 7

20 A1 Correct answer (0.40816…) nfww

= or 0.408 Final answer does not imply the method mark
49

2
9709/63/M/J/18/Q5

15(i) P(0) = 0.6 × 0.25 × 0.5 = 0.075 B1 0, 1, 2, 3 seen as top line of a pdf table OR attempting to evaluate P(0),
P(1) = 0.4 × 0.25 × 0.5 + 0.6 × 0.75 × 0.5 + 0.6 × 0.25 × 0.5 = P(1), P(2) and P(3)
0.35
P(2) = 0.4 × 0.75 × 0.5 + 0.4 × 0.25 × 0.5 + 0.6 × 0.75 × 0.5 =
M1 Multiply 3 probabilities together from 0.4 or 0.6, 0.25 or 0.75, 0.5 with or
0.425
without a table
P(3) = 0.4 × 0.75 × 0.5 = 0.15

No of 0 1 M1 Summing 3 probabilities for P(1) or P(2) with or without a table

heads
Prob 0.075 0.35 0.425 0.15 B1 One correct probability seen.
 3   7   17   3 
        A1 All correct in a table
 40   20   40   20 

Total: 5

(ii)  33  M1 Correct unsimplified expression for the mean using their table, ∑p = 1;
E(X)) = 0 2 × 0.425
5 + 3 × 0.15
0. 1.65  oe  can be implied by correct answer
 20 

(ii) Var(X) = 0.35 + 4 × 0.425 + 9 × 0.15 – 1.652 M1 Correct unsimplified expression for the variance using their table and
their mean2 subtracted, ∑p = 1

 271  A1 Correct answer

= 0.678 (0.6775)  oe 
 400 

Total: 3

9709/61/O/N/18/Q2

16(i) p + 0.1 = 1 B1 Correct answer

p = 0.15

(ii) X) =1 × p +1 × 2p + 4×2p + 16 × 0.1 – 1.152 M1 Correct unsimplified formula, their p substituted (allow 1 error)

0.15 + 0 + 0.3 + 1.2 + 1.6 – 1.152 A1 Correct answer

= 1.9275 = 1.93 (3sf)

2
9709/62/O/N/18/Q6

17(i) B1 –2, –1, 0, 1, 2, 3 seen as top line of a pdf table with at least 1
x –2 –1 0 1 3 probability OR attempting to evaluate P(–2), P(–1), P(0), P(1), P(2),
P(3) (condone additional values with p=0 stated)
p 1 2 3 3 2 1
12 12 12 12 12 12

B1 At least 4 probs correct (need not be in table)

B1 All probs correct in a table

(ii) −2 × 1−1 × 2 + 0 + 1× 3 + 2 × 2 +1× 3 M1 Unsimplified expression for mean using their pdf table (or correct)
E(X) = = 0.5 with at least 2 non-zero values (may be seen in variance).
12
Numerator terms may be implied by values.

( −2 )2 × 1 + ( −1)2 × 2 + 12 × 3 + 22 × 2 + 32 × 1 − M1 Unsimplified expression for variance using their pdf table (or
Var(X) = ( their 0.5)2 correct) with at least 2 non-zero values and their E(X). Numerator
12 terms may be implied by values. If –k2 is seen for (–k)2, the method
must be confirmed by seeing value used correctly

26/12 −1/4 = 23/12 A1 Correct final answer

3
 (iii) Method 1

P(X non-zero) = 9/12 B1ft If Binomial distribution used 0/3

P(X non-zero) ft from their pdf table, Σp=1 oe

3 M1 Their P(X = 1)/their P(X non-zero) from their pdf table oe

P ( X = 1∩ X non − zero ) 12
P(X = 1 | X non-zero) = =
P ( X non − zero ) 9
12

= 1/3 oe A1 Correct final answer www

Method 2

Number of outcomes = 1 B1ft Number of non-zero outcomes (expect 9) ft from their outcome
P(X = 1 | X non-zero) = table or pdf table numerators oe
Number of non − zero outcomes

M1 a/b, a = their 3 from their outcome table or pdf table numerators,

b = their 9 (not 12)

3 1 A1 Correct final answer www

= = oe
9 3

9709/63/O/N/18/Q2

18(i) B1 –2, –1, 0, 1, 2, 3 seen as top line of a pdf table OR attempting to

x −2 −1
1 0 1 2 3 evaluate P(–2), P(–1), P(0), P(1), P(2), P(3),
P(X = x) 2 4 5 4 2 1
18 18 18 18 18 18

B1 At least 4 probs correct (need not be in table)

B1 All probs correct in a table

3
 (ii) −4 − 4 + 0 + 4 + 4 + 3 1 M1 Correct unsimplified expression for the mean using their table,
E(X) = = Σp = 1, may be implied
18 6

8+4+ +4+8+9 1

2 M1 Correct, unsimplified expression for the variance using their table,
Var(X) = −  and their mean2 subtracted.
18 6
Allow Σp ≠ 1
=11/6 – 1/36 (1.8333 – 0.02778)

= 65/36, (1.81) A1 Correct answer

3
9709/62/F/M/19/Q4

19(i) B1 Probability distribution table with correct values of x, no additional

x −1 2 3 values unless with probability 0 stated, at least one correct
probability including k
p k 4k 9k

15k = 1, M1 Equating Σp = 1, may be implied by answer

1 A1 If 0 scored, SCB2 for probability distribution table with correct

k= numerical probabilities.
15

3
(ii) Method 1

35 7 B1FT FT if 0< their k<1

E(X) = 8k + 27k = 35k = =
15 3

Var(X) = ( k + k +16k + 81k ) − ( 35k )

2 M1 Correct formula for variance, in terms of k at least – must have ‘–
mean2’(ft).

52 A1
= 1.16 ,
45

Method 2

8 27 35 7 B1FT FT if 0< their k<1

E(X) = + = =
15 15 15 3

1 1 16 81  7 
2 M1 Subst their values in correct var formula – must have
Var(X) = + + + −  ‘– mean2’(ft) (condone probs not summing to exactly 1)
15 15 15 15  3 

= 1.16 (= 52/45) A1 Using their values from (i)

3
9709/63/M/J/19/Q6

20(i) B1 Probability distribution table with correct scores, allow extra score
score 1 2 3 6 9 values if probability of zero stated
prob 3 4 4 1 2 1 B1 2 probabilities (with correct score) correct
15 15 15 15 15 15
B1 3 or more correct probabilities with correct scores

B1 FT Σp = 1, at least 4 probabilities

(ii) (3 + 8 + 12 + 4 +12 + 9) 48 B1
mean = = (3.2)
15 15

(3 + 16 + 36 +16 + 72 + 81) M1 FT Substitute their attempts at scores in correct var formula,

− ( their 3.2 )
2
Var
Var must have “– mean2 ” (condone probabilities not summing to 1)
15

224  352  A1
= – 3.22 = 4.69  
15  75 

(iii) Score of 4, 6, 9 M1 Identifying relevant scores from their mean and their table

4 A1 Correct answer
Prob (0.267)
15
SC B1 for 4/15 with no working

2
9709/61/O/N/19/Q4

21(i) 1 3 M1 Unsimplified sum of probabilities equated to 1

+ + p + p + + 4p =1
4 8

1 A1 If method FT from their incorrect (i), expressions for E(X) and

p= Var(X) must be seen unsimplified with all probabilities <1,
16
condone not adding to 1

(ii) 1 1 6 25 M1 May be implied by use in Variance, accept unsimplified

[E(X)] = − + + +1 =
4 16 8 16

1 1 12 16  25 
2 M1 Substitute into correct variance formula, must have
[Var(X)] = + + −  their  ‘– their mean2’
4 16 8 4  16 

863 A1 OE
or 3.37
256

(iii) 3 M1 Conditional probability formula used consistent with their

P ( X = 2) probabilities
P(X = 2|X >0) = = 8
P(X > 0) 11
16

6 A1
or 0.545
11

2
9709/62/O/N/19/Q5

22(i) B1 Table with correct values of x, at least 1 probability, all

probabilities ⩽ 1
x –1 0 1 3 4

p 1 1 3 2 3 2
12 12 12 12 12 12

B1 2 probabilities correct, may not be in table

B1 2 more probabilities correct, may not be in table

B1 All correct, values in table

SC1 No more than 1 correct probability and at least 5
probabilities summing to 1 in table

(ii)  −1 + 0 + 3 + 4 + 9 + 8  23 M1 May be implied by use in variance. Allow unsimplified

[E(X)] =  = expression
 12  12

1 + 0 + 3 + 8 + 27 + 32 ( = 71)  23  2 M1 Appropriate variance formula using their E(X)2

[Var(X)] = − 
12  12 

323 35 A1 CAO
2.24 or or 2
144 144

3
9709/63/O/N/19/Q6

23(i) 3 2 3 B1 OE
P(RR) = × =
8 7 28

(ii) P(RW) + P(WR) M1 Method shown, numerical calculations identified, may

3 5 5 3 include replacements
× + ×
8 7 8 7

15 A1 AG, Fully correct calculations

=
28

Alternative method for question 6(ii)

1 – (P(RR) + P(WW) M1 Method shown, numerical calculations identified, may

 3 5 4 include replacements
1−  + × 
 28 8 7 

15 A1 AG, Fully correct calculations

=
28

(iii) 3 2 3 M1 Conditional probability formula used consistent with their

× probabilities or correct
their (i) 8 7
P(first red|second red) = = = 28
5 3 3 2 5 3 21
their (i) + × × + ×
8 7 8 7 8 7 56

2 A1 OE
=
7

2
(iv) B1 Probability distribution table with correct values of x and at
x 0 1 2
least one correct probability placed. Extra x values allowed
p with probability of zero stated.
10 15 3
28 28 28

B1FT Fully correct

FT P(2) = their (i), P(1) = their (ii), Σ(p) = 1.

(v) 30 12 42  3  B1 May be implied by use in variance formula

E(X) = + = = 
56 56 46  4 

30 24  3
2 M1 Substitute into correct variance formula, must have
Var(X) = + −  their  ‘ – their mean2’
56 56  4
Must be for 2 or more non-zero x-values

45 A1 Correct final answer

or 0.402
112

3
9709/52/F/M/20/Q2

24(a) 2 3
 1  2   1  2   1  2 
4 M1 One correct term with 0 < p < 1
   +    +   
 3  3   3  3   3  3 

4 8 16  2432  A1 Correct expression, accept unsimplified

= + + = 
27 81 243  7776 

76 A1
= or 0.313
243

(b) B1 Probability distribution table with correct values of x, no

x 0 1 2 3
additional values unless with probability of 0 stated, at least
one non-zero probability included
8 12 6 1
P(x)
27 27 27 27

2
3 B1 1 correct probability seen (may not be in table)
P(0) =   or 3 or 4 non-zero probabilities summing to 1
3
2
 1  2 
P(1) =    × 3 B1 All probabilities correct
 3  3 
2
 2  1 
P(2) =    × 3
 3  3 
3
1
P(3) =  
3

(c)  8 12 6 1 M1 Correct method from their probability distribution table with at

E(X) = 0 ×  + 1 × + 2× + 3× least 3 terms, 0 ⩽ their P(x) ⩽ 1, accept unsimplified
 27  27 27 27
 0  12 12 3
=  + + +
 27  27 27 27

=1 A1

2
9709/52/M/J/20/Q5

25(a) M1
1 1 2 3

1 1 1 2 3

2 2 2 2 3

3 3 3 3 3

7 A1
AG
15

(b) B1
x 1

Probability 2 6 7
15 15 15

P(1) or P(2) correct B1

3rd probability correct, FT sum to 1 B1

(c) 2 + 12 + 21 35 7 B1
E(X) = = =
15 15 3

12 × 2 + 22 × 6 + 32 × 7  7 
2 M1
Var(X) = − 
15  3

22 A1
( 0.489 )
45

3
9709/53/M/J/20/Q4

26(a)
–1 0 0 1

0 1 1 2

2 3 3 4

x –1 0 1 2 3 4

Probability 1 3 3 2 2 1
12 12 12 12 12 12

Probability distribution table with correct scores with at least one probability B1

At least 4 probabilities correct B1

All probabilities correct B1

b −1 + 0 + 3 + 4 + 6 + 4 16 4 B1
E(X) = = =
12 12 3

1 + 0 + 3 + 8 +18 +16  4 
2 M1
Var(X) = − 
12 3

37 A1
(= 2.06)
18

3
9709/51/O/N/20/Q4

27(a) B1
y 1 2 4 1 2 3 4

7 5 3 1 1 1 1 2 3
prob
16 16 16 16
2 1 2 1 2

3 2 1 3 1

4 3 2 1 4

Probability distribution table with correct scores with at least

one probability, allow extra score values if probability of zero
stated’

B1 One probability (linked with correct score) correct

B1 2 more probs (linked with correct scores) correct

B1 FT 4th prob correct, FT sum of 3 or 4 terms = 1

(b) 5 M1 their P ( 2 )
seen or correct outcome space.
P(2|even) = 16 their P ( 2 ) + their P ( 4 )
6
16

5 A1
or 0·833
6

2
9709/52/O/N/20/Q2

28(a) 5 3 2 M1 a b c 5 3 2
P(1 red) = × × ×3 × × × k or × × × 3 , 1⩽ a,b,c ⩽ 5, d ,e ,f ⩽8, a, b, c,
8 7 6 8 7 6 d e f
d, e, f, k all integers.1 < k ⩽ 3,

15 A1 AG, WWW
56

Alternative method for question 2(a)

5
C1 × 3 C2 M1 a
C1 × b C2 5
C d × 3 Ce
8 8
or 8
or
C3 C3 C3
5
(
Cd × 3 Ce or a C1 × b C 2 ) ,
5
C3 × C0 + C2 C1 + C1 × C 2 + 5 C0 × 3 C3
3 5 3 5 3

a + b = 8, d + e = 3

15 A1 15
AG, WWW, must be seen
56 56

(b) B1 Probability distribution table with correct outcomes with at least

x 0 1 2 3
one probability less than 1, allow extra outcome values if
Prob. probability of zero stated.
1 15 30 15 10 5
= =
56 56 56 28 56 28 B1 2 of P(0), P(2) and P(3) correct
0·0179 0·268 0·536 0·179 B1 FT 4th probability correct or FT sum of 3 or more probabilities = 1,
with P(1) correct

(c) (02 × 1) + 12 ×15 + 22 × 30 + 32 ×10  15 

2 M1 Substitute their attempts at scores in correct variance formula,
Var(X) = −  must have ‘ – mean2’ (FT if mean calculated) (condone
56 8 probabilities not summing to 1 for this mark)
2
15 120 90  15 
= + + − 
56 56 56  8 

225 A1
, 0·502
448

2
9709/53/O/N/20/Q6

29(a)
(a) Scenar M1 One 3 factor probability with 3, 3, 5 as denominators
2 2 1 4
HHT: × × = M1 3 factor probabilities for 2 or 3 correct scenarios added, no
3 3 5 45
2 1 4 8 incorrect scenarios
HTH: × × =
3 3 5 45
1 2 4 8
THH: × × =
3 3 5 45

20 4 A1 AG, Total of 3 products with clear context

Total = =
45 9

(b) B1 Probability distribution table with correct outcomes with at least

x 0 1 2
one probability, allow extra outcome values if probability of
Prob. zero stated’
1 8 20 16
45 45 45 45 B1 2 of P(0), P(1) and P(3) correct

B1 FT 3 or 4 probabilities sum to 1 with P(2) correct

(c) 02 × 1 + 12 × 8 + 22 × 20 + 32 × 16  32 
2 M1 Substitute their attempts at scores in correct variance formula,
Var(X) = −  must have ‘– mean2’ (FT if calculated) (condone probs not
45  15  summing to 1); must be at least 2 non-zero values
2
8 80 144  32 
= + + − 
45 45 45  15 

136 A1
or 0.604
225