Probability

Chapter 16

SIS 1042Y – Discrete Structures

Learning Objectives
• Understanding key probability concepts
• Application of Probability in Simulation
• Personal Probabilities – reflect someone’s assessment (guess) of
chance
• Joint Event – simultaneous occurrence of two events
• Joint Probability – probability of a joint event
• Conditional Probabilities – probability of an event given that another
event has occurred
Vocabulary
• Probability model – calculates the theoretical probability for a
set of circumstances

• Probability – describes the pattern of chance outcomes

• Simulation – imitation of chance behavior, based on a model

that accurately reflects the phenomenon under consideration

• Trials – many repetitions of a simulation or experiments

• Independent – one repetition does not affect the outcome of

another
Methods Involving Chance

• Calculating relative frequencies using observed data

• Theoretical Probability Model

• Simulation
Steps of Simulation

• State the problem or describe the random phenomenon

• State the assumptions

• Assign digits to represent outcomes

• Simulate many repetitions (trials)

• State your conclusions

Probability Models
Vocabulary
• Empirical – based on observations rather than theorizing
• Random – individuals outcomes are uncertain
• Probability – long-term relative frequency
• Tree Diagram – allows proper enumeration of all outcomes in
a sample space
• Sampling with replacement – samples from a solution set and
puts the selected item back in before the next draw
• Sampling without replacement – samples from a solution set
and does not put the selected item back
Vocabulary Cont
• Union – the set of all outcomes in both subsets combined
(symbol: È)
• Empty event – an event with no outcomes in it (symbol: Æ)
• Intersect – the set of all in only both subsets (symbol: Ç)
• Venn diagram – a rectangle with solution sets displayed
within
• Independent – knowing that one thing event has occurred
does not change the probability that the other occurs
• Disjoint – events that are mutually exclusive (both cannot
occur at the same time)
Idea of Probability

Chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run, but has a

regular and predictable pattern in the long run

The unpredictability of the short run entices people to gamble

and the regular and predictable pattern in the long run makes
casinos very profitable.
Randomness and Probability

We call a phenomenon random if individual outcomes are

uncertain but there is nonetheless a regular distribution of
outcomes in a large number of repetitions

The probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is

the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very
long series of repetitions. That is, probability is long-term
frequency.
Probability Models
Probability model is a mathematical description of a random
phenomenon consisting of two parts: a sample space S and a
way of assigning probabilities to events

S
E F
1 5 2 4
3 6

Sample Space S: possible outcomes in rolling a six-

sided die
Event E: odd numbered outcomes
Event F: even numbered outcomes
Tree Diagrams
Tree Diagram makes the enumeration of possible outcomes
easier to see and determine
N YNN
N YNY
Y
Y YYN
N
Y YYY
Y
Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Outcomes
N NNN
N
Y NNY
N
N NYN
Y
Y NYY

Running the tree out details an individual outcome

Example 1

Given a survey with 4 “yes or no” type questions, list all

possible outcomes using a tree diagram. Divide them into
events (number of yes answers) regardless of order.
Example 1cont
N YNNN
N Y YNNY
N N YNYN
Y Y YNYY
Y
N N YYNN
Y Y YYNY
Y N YYYN
Y YYYY
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Outcomes
NNNN
N
N Y NNNY
N N NNYN
Y Y NNYY
N
N N NYNN
Y Y NYNY
Y N NYYN
Y NYYY
Example 1 cont
YNNN 1
YNNY 2
YNYN 2
YNYY 3
YYNN 2
YYNY 3
YYYN 3 Number of Yes’s
Outcomes YYYY 4 0 1 2 3 4
NNNN 0 1 4 6 4 1
NNNY 1
NNYN 1
NNYY 2
NYNN 1
NYNY 2
NYYN 2
NYYY 3
Multiplication Rule
If you can do one task in n number of ways and a
second task in m number of ways, then both tasks can
be done in n ´ m number of ways.
Example 2

How many different dinner combinations can we have

if you have a choice of 3 appetizers, 2 salads, 4
entrees, and 5 deserts?
Answer
3 ´ 2 ´ 4 ´ 5 = 120 different combinations
Replacement
• With replacement maintains the original probability
• Draw a card and replace it and then draw another
• What are your odds of drawing two hearts?

• Without replacement changes the original

probability
• Draw two cards
• What are you odds of drawing two hearts
• How have the odds changed?
• Events are now dependent
 Example 3

From our previous slide:

• With Replacement: What are your odds of drawing two hearts?
(13/52) (13/52) = 1/16 = 0.0625

• Without Replacement: What are your odds of drawing two hearts?

(13/52) (12/51) = 0.0588
Probability Rules

• Any probability is a number between 0 and 1

• The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes must
equal 1
• Addition Rule for Disjoint Events: If two events have no
outcomes in common, the probability that one or the other
occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities
• Complement Rule: The probability that an event does not
occur is 1 minus the probability that the event does occur
• Probability of certainty is 1
• Probability of impossibility is 0
Example 4

Identify the problems with each of the following

a) P(A) = .35, P(B) = .40, and P(C) = .35

P(S) = 1.1 > 1
b) P(E) = .20, P(F) = .50, P(G) = .25
P(S) = 0.9 < 1
c) P(A) = 1.2, P(B) = .20, and P(C) = .15
P(A) > 1
d) P(A) = .25, P(B) = -.20, and P(C) = .95
P(B) < 0
Venn Diagrams in Probability

• A È B is read A union B and is both events combined

• A Ç B is read A intersection B and is the outcomes they have
in common
• Disjoint events have no outcomes in common and are also
called mutually exclusive
• In set notation: A Ç B = Æ (empty set)

A B
Addition Rule for Disjoint Events
If E and F are disjoint (mutually exclusive) events,
then P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F)

E F

Probability for Disjoint Events

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F)

Example 5
A card is chosen at random from a normal deck. What is the probability of
choosing?

a) a king or a queen

b) a face card or a 2
Example 6
• Suppose you are playing a game of Monopoly and have just
rolled doubles two times in a row. If you roll doubles again, you
will go to jail. You will also go to jail if you roll a total of 3
because you are 3 spaces away from the “Go to Jail” square.
What is the probability that you will go to Jail?
Complement Rule
If E represents any event and Ec represents the complement of
E, then P(Ec) = 1 – P (E)

E
Ec

Probability for Complement Events

P(Ec) = 1 – P(E)
Example 7
What is the probability of rolling two dice and getting
something other than a 5?
Equally Likely Outcomes

• Discrete uniform probability distributions

• Dice
• Cards
Discrete uniform probability distributions
Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent if knowing that one
occurs does not change the probability that the other occurs.

Disjoint events cannot be independent

Examples:
Flipping a coin more than one time
Rolling dice more than once
Drawing cards with replacement (and shuffling)

Not Independent:
Drawing cards without replacement
Multiplication Rules
for Independent Events
If A and B are independent events,
then P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)

If events E, F, G, ….. are independent, then

P(E and F and G and …..) = P(E) · P(F) · P(G) · ……
Example 8

A) P(rolling 2 sixes in a row) = ??

B) P(rolling 5 sixes in a row) = ??

Example 9
A card is chosen at random from a normal deck. What is the probability of
choosing?

a) a king or a jack b) a king and a queen

c) a king and red card d) a face card and a heart

At least Probabilities

P(at least one) = 1 – P(complement of “at least one”)

= 1 – P(none)

0 1, 2, 3, ….
Example 10

P(rolling at least one six in three rolls) = ??

Example 11
There are two traffic lights on the route used by a Pickup to go
from home to work. Let E denote the event that Pickup must
stop at the first light and F in a similar manner for the second
light. Suppose that P(E) = .4 and P(F) = .3 and P(E and F) = .15.
What is the probability that he:

a) must stop for at least one light?

b) doesn't stop at either light?

c) must stop just at the first light?

Rules of Probability
Addition Rule for Disjoint Events

If events A, B, and C are disjoint in the sense that no

two have any outcomes in common, then

P(A or B or C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)

This rule extends to any number of disjoint events
General Addition Rule
For any two events E and F,

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E and F)

E F

E and F

Probability for non-Disjoint Events

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E and F)

Example 12
Fifty animals are to be used in a stress study: 4 male and 6 female dogs, 9
male and 7 female cats, 5 male and 8 female monkeys, 6 male and 5
female rats. Find the probability of choosing:

a) a dog or a cat b) a cat or a female

c) a male d) a monkeys or a male

Example 12 cont
Fifty animals are to be used in a stress study: 4 male and 6 female dogs, 9
male and 7 female cats, 5 male and 8 female monkeys, 6 male and 5
female rats. Find the probability of choosing:

e) an animal other than a female monkey

f) a female or a rat

g) a female and a cat

h) a dog and a cat

Example 13
A pollster surveys 100 subjects consisting of 40 Dems (of which half
are female) and 60 Reps (half are female). What is the probability
of randomly selecting one of these subjects of getting:

a) a Dem b) a female

c) a Dem and a female d) a Rep male

e) a Dem or a male e) a Rep or a female

Joint Probabilities

Matthew
Deborah Promoted Not Promoted Total
Promoted 0.3 0.4 0.7
Not Promoted 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.5 0.5 1
General Multiplication Rule

The probability that two events A and B

both occur is

P(A and B) = P(A Ç B) = P(A) · P(B | A)

where P(B | A) is a conditional probability

read as the probability of B given that A has
occurred
Conditional Probability Rule

If A and B are any two events, then

P(A and B) N(A and B)

P(B | A) = ----------------- = ----------------
P(A) N(A)

N is the number of outcomes

Independence in Terms of Conditional
Probability
Two events A and B are independent if P(B | A) = P(B)

Example: P(A = Rolling a six on a single die) = 1/6

P(B = Rolling a six on a second roll) = 1/6

no matter what was rolled on the first roll!!

So probability of rolling a 6 on the second roll, given you rolled

a six on the first is still 1/6

P(B | A) = P(B) so A and B are independent

Contingency Tables

Male Female Total

Right handed 48 42 90
Left handed 12 8 20
Total 60 50 110

1. What is the probability of left-handed given that

it is a male? P(LH | M) =P(LH and M)/P(M)= (
(20/110)*(12/20))/(60/110)= 12/60 = 0.20
2. What is the probability of female given that they were
right-handed? P(F| RH) = P(F and RH)/P(RH)= (
(50/110)*(42/50))/(90/110)= 42/90 = 0.467
3. What is the probability of being left-handed?
P(LH) = 20/110 = 0.182
 Tree Diagram

0.8 Right-handed 0.44

Male
0.55 0.2 Left-handed 0.11
Sex
0.45 0.84 Right-handed 0.378
Female
0.16 Left-handed 0.072
Example 14
A construction firm has bid on two different contracts. Let B1 be
the event that the first bid is successful and B2, that the second
bid is successful. Suppose that P(B1) = .4, P(B2) = .6 and that
the bids are independent. What is the probability that:

a) both bids are successful?

b) neither bid is successful?

c) is successful in one of the bids?

Example 15
Given that P(A) = .3 , P(B) = .6, and P(B|A) = .4 find:

a) P(A and B)

b) P(A or B)

c) P(A|B)
Example 16

Given P(A | B) = 0.55 and P(A or B) = 0.64 and P(B) = 0.3. Find
P(A).
Example 17
If 60% of a department store’s customers are female and 75%
of the female customers have a store charge card, what is the
probability that a customer selected at random is female and
had a store charge card?
Example 18
Suppose 5% of a box of 100 light blubs are defective. If a store
owner tests two light bulbs from the shipment and will accept
the shipment only if both work. What is the probability that
the owner rejects the shipment?