Introduction

Simulation & Modelling

AHMED SALEEM
Lecturer
Department of Computer Science
Faculty of Computing & IT
University of Gujrat
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Course Assessment Criteria

➢ Assignment 5%

➢ Quiz 5%

➢ Project/Presentation 15%

➢ Class Participation 5%

➢ Mid 25%

➢ Final Exam 50%

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Simulation & Modelling

Course Synopsis
This course covers the advance topics of modeling and simulation such as
Developing Models, Executing Simulations, Analyzing Results, Calibrating
Models, Verification & Validation of Models.

Course Learning Outcomes

At the end of this course students will have better understandings of
followings:

➢ Basics of Simulation
➢ Simulation Tools
➢ Agent-Based Model
➢ Other Models

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Simulation & Modelling

Overview
➢ Simulation & Modelling is an extremely important part of
our daily lives.

➢ Our entire living experience is based on the concept of

‘’Consciousness’’

➢ The state of being aware of and responsive to one’s

surroundings

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Consciousness: Robert Fudd (17th Century)

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Systems

➢ System a collection of entities, e.g. people or machine, that

act and interact together to accomplish some end

➢ System state the collection of variables necessary to

describe the system at a particular time

➢ Types of systems

• Discrete
• Continuous

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Entity and more!

➢ Any object of interest in the system is called an Entity.

➢ An attribute is the property of an entity.

➢ An activity represents a time period of a specific length

➢ State: Collection of variables necessary to describe the

system at any time, relative to the objectives of the study.

➢ Event: Instantaneous occurrence that might change the state

of the system

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Endogenous vs Exogenous!

➢ Endogenous is used for activities and events occurring within

the system

➢ Exogenous is used for activities and events occurring in the

environment that affect the system

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Examples…

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Discrete System

➢ A discrete system is one in which the state variables change

Only at discrete set of points in time.

➢ Customer arrival in a bank.

➢ The state variable ‘Number of customers’ changes only when

a customer arrives or when the service is completed.

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Continuous System

➢ A continuous system is one in which the state variables

change CONTINUOUSLY over time.

➢ Head of water behind a dam.

➢ The state variable ‘’Head of water’’ changes as rain comes in

or dam is emptied etc.

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What is Simulation?

➢ Simulation is the use of a computer to evaluate a system

model numerical, in order to estimate the desired true
characteristics of the system.

➢ Simulation is useful when a real-world system is too complex

to allow realistic model to be evaluated analytically.

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Advantages of Simulation

➢ Simulation has many advantages, but some disadvantages.

(Pegden, Shannon, and Sadowski 1995)

➢ Provides a way to study complex, real-world systems that

cannot be accurately described by a mathematical model
that can be evaluated analytically.

➢ Allows estimation of the performance of an existing system

under some projected set of operating conditions.

➢ Allows Comparison of alternative proposed system design to

see which one best meets a specified requirement.
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Disadvantages of Simulation

➢ Model building requires special training.

➢ It is an art that is learned over time and through experience.

➢ Furthermore, if two models are constructed by different

competent individuals, they might have similarities, but it is
highly unlikely that they will be the same.

➢ Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming

and expensive.

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In Defense of Simulation

➢ Vendors of simulation software have been actively

developing packages that contain models that need only
input data for their operation.

➢ Such model have the generic tag Simulator and Template.

➢ Simulation can be performed faster today than yesterday

and will be even faster than tomorrow, because of advances
in hardware that permit rapid running of scenarios and
because advances in many simulation packages.

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What is a Model?

➢ ‘’A representation of an object, a system, or an idea in some

form other than that of the entity itself. (Shannon)

➢ A model is defined as a representation of a system for the

purpose of studying the system.

➢ For most studies, it is only necessary to consider those

aspects of the problem under investigation.

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Why Model?

➢ Sometimes it is of interest to study a system to understand

the relationships between its components or predict how
the system will operate under new policy.

➢ To study the system, it is sometimes possible to experiments

with the system itself.

➢ However, this is not always possible.

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Modeling Example

➢ What if we show child a video on a mobile smart phone?

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Types of Models

➢ Mathematical

• A mathematical model uses symbolic notation and

mathematical equations to represent a system.

➢ Physical

• Physical modeling is a way of modeling and simulating

systems that consist of real physical components.

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What is a Simulation Model?

➢ A special type of mathematical model

➢ Simulation model may be further classified as:

• Static
• Dynamic
• Deterministic
• Stochastic
• Discrete
• Continuous

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Static vs Dynamic

➢ Static

• A static simulation model, sometime called a Monte Carlo

Simulation, represents system at a particular point in time.

➢ Dynamic

• Dynamic simulation models represent systems as they

change over time.
• E.g. Simulation of a bank from 9 AM to 2 PM

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Deterministic Models

➢ Simulation models that contain no random variables are

classified as deterministic.

➢ Deterministic models have a known set of inputs, which all

results in a unique set of outputs.

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Stochastic Models

➢ A stochastic simulation model has one or more random

variables as inputs.

➢ Random inputs lead to random outputs.

➢ Random outputs can be considered only as estimates of the

true characteristics of a model.

➢ The Simulation of a bank would usually involve random

interarrival times and random service times.

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 What is in the mind’s eye? Implicit Modeling

➢ Implicit modeling mean going primarily into the second position

with the person being modeled in order to personally get an
intuitive sense of what experience they are doing.

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 Maps: An example of Explicit Modeling

➢ Explicit modeling means going into a third position to describe

explicit structure of role model experience so that it becomes
transferable to others.

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Simulation is NOT a Silver Bullet!

➢ There is typical misconception often in graduate students

that everything can be, or should be simulated.

➢ Simulation is NOT for everything!

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Banks and Gibson (1997)

➢ Bank and Gibson present ten rules for evaluating when

simulation is not appropriate.

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Rule Number 1

➢ Simulation should not be used when the problem can be

solved by common sense.

➢ E.g. In an automobile tag facility serving customers who

arrive randomly at an average rate of 100/hour and are
served at a mean rate of 12/hour.

➢ To determine the minimum number of servers needed.

➢ Just compute 100/12 = 8.33 indicating that nine or more

servers are needed.

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Rule Number 2

➢ Simulation should not be used if the problems can be solved

analytically.

➢ For example, under certain conditions, the average waiting

time in the example above can be found from curves that
were developed by Hillier and Lieberman (2002).

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Rule Number 3 and 4

➢ Simulation should not be used if it is easier to perform direct

experiments.

➢ In a fast food drive in restaurant it can be less expensive to

stage a person taking order using a hand-held terminal and
voice communication to determine the effect of adding
another order station on customer waiting time.

➢ Don’t use simulation if the costs exceed the savings. (4)

➢ If a simulation study costs $20,000 and the savings might be

$10,000, simulation would not be appropriate.
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Rule Number 5,6 and 7

➢ Simulation should not be performed if the resources or time

are not available.

➢ If a decision in needed in two weeks and a simulation will

take a month, the simulation study is not advised.

➢ Simulation takes data, sometimes lots of data. (7)

➢ If no data is available, not even estimates, simulation is not

advised.

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Rule Number 8 and 9

➢ The next rule concerns the ability to verify and validate the
model.

➢ If there is not enough time or if the personnel are not

available, simulation is not appropriate.

➢ If managers have unreasonable expectations, if they ask for

too much too soon, or if the power of simulation is
overestimated, simulation might not be appropriate. (9)

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Rule Number 10

➢ Last, if system behavior is too complex or can’t be defined,

simulation is not appropriate.

➢ Human behavior is sometimes extremely complex to model.

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Simulation & Modeling

Thank You!

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