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Paper Introduction

This paper presents a forecasting model for solar photovoltaic (PV) power output using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which effectively captures the non-linear and stochastic characteristics of solar irradiance. The RNN-based approach shows significant improvements in predictive accuracy over traditional statistical methods, enhancing grid reliability and optimizing energy dispatch. The model's ability to adapt to dynamic environmental changes and handle missing or noisy data makes it a valuable tool for smart microgrid management.

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4 views2 pages

Paper Introduction

This paper presents a forecasting model for solar photovoltaic (PV) power output using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which effectively captures the non-linear and stochastic characteristics of solar irradiance. The RNN-based approach shows significant improvements in predictive accuracy over traditional statistical methods, enhancing grid reliability and optimizing energy dispatch. The model's ability to adapt to dynamic environmental changes and handle missing or noisy data makes it a valuable tool for smart microgrid management.

Uploaded by

xuanbach.luu1210
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Abstract:

Accurate forecasting of solar photovoltaic (PV) power output is critical for


efficient microgrid management and renewable energy integration. This
paper presents a forecasting model based on Recurrent Neural Networks
(RNNs), designed to capture the non-linear and stochastic characteristics of
solar irradiance and environmental factors. Traditional statistical methods,
including ARIMA and numerical weather prediction models, often fail to
model the complex temporal dependencies inherent in solar power
generation. By contrast, the RNN-based approach effectively learns from
sequential data, adapts to dynamic environmental changes, and
demonstrates robustness against missing and noisy inputs. The model is
evaluated for short-term forecasting horizons and shows significant
improvements in predictive accuracy compared to conventional methods.
These results highlight the potential of deep learning-based forecasting
systems to enhance grid reliability, optimize energy dispatch, and support
the stable operation of smart microgrids.

I. INTRODUCTION

The need for accurate forecasting of solar power output has become
increasingly important with the rapid deployment of photovoltaic (PV)
systems worldwide. Solar power systems, due to their inherent intermittency
and dependence on environmental conditions such as irradiance and
temperature, present significant challenges for reliable integration into
electrical grids, especially microgrids [1].
Forecasting solar power generation initially relied heavily on traditional
statistical methods such as time series models (ARIMA, SARIMA), physical
models based on meteorological parameters, and numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models [2]. These methods, while effective to a certain
degree, often struggled with the highly non-linear, stochastic nature of solar
irradiance and power generation, especially in short-term forecasting
horizons [3].

With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)
techniques, especially deep learning, the forecasting landscape has
transformed significantly. AI methods such as Artificial Neural Networks
(ANNs), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and more recently, Deep Neural
Networks (DNNs) have demonstrated superior capabilities in capturing the
complex, non-linear patterns present in historical solar data compared to
traditional approaches [4].
In particular, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) — designed to handle
sequential and temporal data — have shown promising results in forecasting
applications involving time series data like solar irradiance and power output
[5].

This paper introduces a deep learning model based on the RNN architecture
to forecast the power output of a solar PV system, using historical irradiance
and environmental data.
In comparison to traditional statistical and physical models, Recurrent Neural
Networks (RNNs) present significant advantages, including superior modeling
of temporal dependencies, adaptive learning from continuously updated data
streams, and enhanced robustness in handling missing or noisy data. By
exploiting these capabilities, RNN-based forecasting systems contribute to
improved grid management, optimized energy dispatch strategies, and
increased reliability in the integration of renewable energy sources into
smart microgrids.

References

[1] E. Lorenz, J. Hurka, D. Heinemann, and H. G. Beyer, "Irradiance


forecasting for the power prediction of grid-connected photovoltaic systems,"
IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote
Sensing, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 2–10, Mar. 2009.
[2] S. Reikard, "Predicting solar radiation at high resolutions: A comparison of
time series forecasts," Solar Energy, vol. 83, no. 3, pp. 342–349, 2009.
[3] D. Yang, P. Jirutitijaroen, and W. M. Walsh, "Hourly solar irradiance time
series forecasting using cloud cover index," Solar Energy, vol. 86, no. 12, pp.
3531–3540, 2012.
[4] M. Zamo, P. Naveau, V. Mestre, and M. M. Vrac, "Modeling extreme value
distributions based on daily solar radiation data," Solar Energy, vol. 86, no.
10, pp. 2805–2815, 2012.
[5] F. Chollet, Deep Learning with Python, Manning Publications, 2017.

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