TOPIC 10: PRE-TEST

Question 1
1. A bag contains 5 red, 3 blue, and 2
green balls. If one ball is selected at
random, what is the probability of
selecting a red ball?
(a) 1/2
(b) 1/5
(c) 1/10
(d) 5/10
Question 2
2. If the probability of an event
occurring is 0.7, what is the
probability of the event not
occurring?
(a) 0.3
(b) 0.5
(c) 0.7
(d) 1.3
Question 3
3. A die is rolled. What is the
probability of rolling a number less
than 3 or an odd number?
(a) 1/6
(b) 2/3
(c) 5/6
(d) 1
Question 4
4. A card is drawn from a standard
52-card deck. Given that the card is a
face card, what is the probability that
it is a king?
(a) 1/13
(b) 1/4
(c) 1/3
(d) 3/13
Question 5
5. Two coins are tossed. What is the
probability of getting heads on both
tosses?
(a) 1/2
(b) 1/4
(c) 1/8
(d) 3/4
Question 6
6. A coin is flipped, and a die is rolled.
What is the probability of getting
heads and rolling a 6?
(a) 1/12
(b) 1/6
(c) 1/2
(d) 1/36
Question 7
7. A game costs $5 to play. A player rolls
a fair six-sided die. If they roll a 6, they
win $20. If they roll any other number,
they win nothing. What is the expected
value of the game for the player?
(a) $0
(b) $2.50
(c) -$2.50
(d) -$5
Question 8
8. In how many ways can 3 students
be chosen from a group of 5 to form
a team?
(a) 10
(b) 15
(c) 20
(d) 60
Question 9
9. A fair coin is tossed 3 times. What
is the probability of getting exactly 2
heads?
(a) 1/8
(b) 3/8
(c) 1/2
(d) 3/4
Question 10
10. A survey reveals that 40% of college
students prefer studying in the morning,
35% in the afternoon, and 25% in the
evening. If one student is selected at
random, what is the probability they prefer
studying in the morning or the evening?
(a) 0.25
(b) 0.35
(c) 0.65
(d) 1
MLS 054:
UNDERSTANDING BASIC
PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After this discussion, we will be able to:

1. Define the basic concepts, axioms, and

properties of probability;
2. Define the different types of probability;
3. Differentiate between Independent Events and
Dependent Events;
4. Differentiate between Mutually Exclusive Events
and Non-mutually exclusive events;
5. Compute the probability of an event using
multiplication rule and addition rule;
DEFINITION OF TERMS

• Probability Experiment – an action

through which counts, measurements
or responses are obtained
Ex. Roll a die
• Sample Space – set of all possible
outcomes
Ex. {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
DEFINITION OF TERMS

• EVENT – subset of the sample space

Ex. {Die is even} = {2, 4, 6}
• OUTCOME – result of a single trial
Ex. {4}
TYPES OF PROBABILITY

1. CLASSICAL PROBABILITY (Theoretical)

- Each outcome in the sample space is
equally likely to occur

Number of outcomes in event E

P(E) = Total number of outcomes in a sample space
TYPES OF PROBABILITY

2. EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY (Statistical)

- Based on observations obtained from
probability experiments

Frequency of event E (f)

P(E) = Total frequency (n)
TYPES OF PROBABILITY

3. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
- results from intuition, educated
guesses, and estimates
• SIMPLE EVENT is an event consisting of only
one element
• More than one element is called
“COMPOUND EVENT”
– MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE if two events does not have
common elements
• Event that does not have any element is
called “NULL or EMPTY EVENT”
- an IMPOSSIBLE EVENT because it will
never happen since sample space is
always a SURE EVENT
EXAMPLE
• IDENTIFY THE COMPOUND EVENTS
• IDENTIFY THE SIMPLE EVENTS
PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT:
• IDENTIFY MUTUALLY Rolling
EXCLUSIVE a Die
EVENTS
SAMPLE SPACE:
• IDENTIFY S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
NULL EVENTS
EVENTS:
E1= {ODD NUMBER} = {1,3,5}
E2 = {EVEN NUMBER} = {2,4,6}
E3 = {EVEN PRIME NUMBER} = {2}
E4 = {NUMBER >6} = {Ø}
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
It is the probability an event B will occur,
given (on the condition) that another
event A has occurred.

P(B|A) “PROBABILITY OF B, GIVEN A”

Example:
Two cars are selected from a production line of 12 cars
Where 5 are defective. What is the probability the 2 nd car is
Defective, given the 1st car was defective?
• INDEPENDENT EVENTS - incidence of
one event does not affect the
probability of the other event
• DEPENDENT EVENTS – incidence of
both events are dependent on one
another
JOINT PROBABILITY

It is the probability of two events

occurring at the same time. It is also
called ”intersection”.

Example:
In a standard deck of cards. What is the probability of
getting a card that is a red and a four?
Mutually Exclusive Events
- if two events cannot occur in the same
trial
P(A and B) = 0
Non-mutually Exclusive Events
- if two events can occur in the same trial
P(A and B) ≠ 0
MULTIPLICATION RULE
- states that whenever an event is the intersection of two other
events, that is, events A and B need to occur simultaneously.
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)

Ex. Two cars are selected from a production

line of 12 where 5 are defective. Find the
probability of both cars are defective
Event A: first car is defective
Event B: second car is defective
ADDITION RULE
- probability for either of two mutually exclusive events or two non-
mutually events happening.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(B and A)

Ex. A card is drawn from a deck. Find the

probability it is a king or it is a red.
Event A: the card is a king
Event B: the card is red
Contingency Table

One of the responses is selected at random. Find:

1. P(YES)
2. P(SEATTLE)
3. P(MIAMI)
4. P(NO, GIVEN MIAMI)
Contingency Table

One of the responses is selected at random. Find:

1. P(MIAMI AND YES)
2. P(MIAMI OR YES)
3. P(MIAMI AND SEATTLE)
4. P(MIAMI OR SEATTLE)
MLS 054:
EXPLORING THE
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After this discussion, we will be able to:

1. Identify a binomial experiment by its

characteristics;
2. Compute the probability of a binomial
experiment;
3. Compute the mean, variance and standard
deviation of a binomial experiment
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENTS
It possesses the following characteristics:
a. the experiment consists of n repeated trials
b. Each trial results in two outcomes, which may
be classified as a success or a failure
c. the probability of a success, denoted by p,
remains constants from trial to trial
d. repeated trials are independent
SAMPLE PROBLEM
A fair coin is tossed 6 times and call heads a success.

• The probability that exactly two heads

occur (k=2)

• The probability of getting at least 5

heads
•
TOPIC 10: POST-TEST
Caselet: Disease Outbreak in Greenville
The town of Greenville is experiencing an outbreak of a newly discovered
virus, Viron-X. Health authorities have determined that the probability of an
individual contracting the virus after exposure is 0.2 (20%). A rapid testing
team has been deployed to a local college campus to assess the situation.
The team randomly selects 10 students who have been exposed to the
virus. Each student is tested independently, and the probability of infection
remains constant for each test.

Questions:
1. What is the probability that exactly 3 out of the 10 students test
positive for Viron-X?
2. What is the probability that at most 2 students test positive?
3. What is the probability that at least 1 student tests positive?
4. What assumptions are made in modeling this scenario as a binomial
experiment?
1 b (3 , 10 ,
0 .

2) =

(19 (0 2") (0 81
3) ·
.

-
120
(5) (
=
0 201
.
=
%

(8)(0 %10 81% ) o

%

.
2 b(0 , 10 , 0 .

2) =
. 2 .
-

us
↓

524288
b (1 ,
10 , 0 .
2) =

(14) (0 2)(0 8") .

.

-53125
t

2) (2)(0 22) (0 8"9)

589824
b(2 ,
10 , 0 .

= · .

-953125

= .

[
J
0 67750 68 .
.
3
A
complementary event of at least I positive student is positive student
% all students are negative

b(0 10 , ,
0 .

2) =

(3)(0 %(0 8"9 .

2
.

=> 0 .

1073741824
* since we are
computing for the complementary event
we need to subtract the answer from 1
=
1 -
0 .
1073741824

=
92 89 =0 .

& CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT

-

repeated trials
-

binary outcomes (success or failure)

- constant probability of success

indepent trials