INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

SOUTHWEST MONSOON 2009

END OF-SEASON REPORT

HIGHLIGHTS
• For the country as a whole, the rainfall for the season (June-
September) was 77% of its long period average (LPA).

• Seasonal rainfall was 64% of its LPA over Northwest India, 80% of its
LPA over Central India, 96% of its LPA over south Peninsula and 73 % of its
LPA over Northeast (NE) India.

• Monthly rainfall was 53% of LPA in June, 96% of LPA in July, 73%
of LPA in August and 79% of LPA in September.

• The monsoon set in over Kerala on 23 rd May, one week before its
normal date of 1 st June. During 8-20 June, there was hiatus in the
advance of the monsoon. However, later the monsoon advanced rapidly
and covered the entire country by 3 rd July, compared to its normal date
of 15 th July. As in the previous two years, the withdrawal of monsoon
from west Rajasthan was delayed and it commenced only on 25 th
September compared to its normal date of 1 st September.

• Out of 526 meteorological districts for which data are available, 215
districts (41) % of the meteorological districts received excess/normal rainfall
and the remaining 311 districts (59%) received deficient/scanty rainfall during
the season.

• The operational forecast for monsoon onset over Kerala for this
year was correct, which is the fifth consecutive correct forecast for this
event since issuing of forecast for the event which started in 2005.

• The operational long range forecast for the seasonal rainfall over
the country as a whole and over four homogeneous regions except
south peninsula have not been accurate. The forecast for August
rainfall over the country as a whole has also not been accurate. All
these forecasts were overestimate to the actual rainfall situation.
However, the forecast for seasonal rainfall over south Peninsula and
that for July rainfall over the country as a whole have been accurate.
1. ONSET OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON
The Southwest monsoon set in over Andaman Sea around its normal date
of 20th May. It set in over Kerala on 23rd May, about a week earlier than the
normal onset date (1st June).
Subsequent to the onset over Kerala, a Severe Cyclonic Storm (Aila)
formed over the Bay of Bengal. In association with it the advance of monsoon
over the northeastern states including West Bengal & Sikkim occurred earlier
than normal. Thereafter, the cross equatorial flow became weak. After a hiatus of
about a week, monsoon further advanced along the west coast and advanced up
to around 17°N latitude on 7th June. A prolonged hiatus in the further advance of
monsoon occurred during 8th – 20th June, which may be mainly attributed to the
weak cross equatorial flow and non formation of low pressure systems over the
Bay of Bengal. Severe heat wave conditions prevailed over many parts of
northwest, central and adjoining eastern parts during this period.
Associated with the formation of a Depression over the Arabian Sea
during 23rd – 24th June, Southwest monsoon advanced as a weak current over
some more parts of peninsular India and parts of central India during 21 st – 27th
June. Subsequent monsoon advance was very rapid and by 30th June, most
parts of the country, outside parts of west Rajasthan was covered by the
monsoon current. Monsoon covered entire country on 3rd July, about 12 days
earlier than its normal date of 15th July, when the interaction between monsoon
flow and mid-latitude westerlies resulted in copious rainfall over Rajasthan.
Fig. 1 depicts the isochrones of advance of southwest Monsoon – 2009.

2. CHIEF SYNOPTIC FEATURES

The north-south surface pressure gradient across the country was mostly
weak throughout the season. The monsoon trough was also very shallow and
during many occasions was situated to north of its normal position. During 30-31
July and 13-19 September, the trough was close to the foothills of Himalayas.
The cross equatorial flow was weaker than normal during major part of the
season except for a brief period from last week of June to third week of July. Due
to these anomalous features, the activity of monsoon low pressure systems (lows
and depressions) during this year was very much subdued compared to previous
years. Only 4 depressions (2 each formed over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of
Bengal) and 5 low pressure areas formed during the season. The life duration of
most of these systems over land was short and therefore did not help in
persistent rainfall activity.
During June, two depressions and a low pressure area were formed. The
low pressure area which formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal and
neighbourhood and dissipated over the northeast Bay of Bengal during 4 -7 June
and did not contribute much to the monsoon activity. However, the depressions
caused very heavy rainfall along the west coast and Saurashtra & Kutch. One
depression formed over the east central Arabian Sea, moved northwards along
the west coast and weakened after crossing the south Gujarat coast during 23-24
June. Subsequently the remnant of this system re-emerged over the northeast
Arabian Sea and after concentrating again into a depression moved northwards
over the land during 25 – 26 June and weakened over Kutch and neighborhood.
During July, the synoptic activity was near normal. Two low pressure
areas and a deep depression formed during the month. One of the low pressure
areas (13-16 July) and the deep depression (20-21 July) formed over northwest
Bay of Bengal, moved west northwestwards along the monsoon trough zone and
caused normal to excess rainfall along west coast and over central parts of the
country.
In August, only one low pressure area formed. This system (25-29 August)
which formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Orissa moved
west northwestwards and contributed to excess rainfall over the central and
peninsular India especially over Gujarat and Rajasthan.
In September, one deep depression and one low pressure area formed.
The deep depression which formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal off Orissa
coast (5 -7 September) initially moved northwestwards and then
westnorthwestwards resulting in active monsoon conditions all along the west
coast and central India. The interaction of the remnant of this system with trough
in upper air westerlies also caused good rainfall activity over north India.
Towards the end of the season, a well marked low pressure area formed over the
west central Bay of Bengal and persisted during 28-30 September.
Fig.2. shows the tracks of depressions and deep depressions formed over
Indian seas during the season.
3. FLOOD SITUATIONS
During the season, some flood incidents were reported in some states
viz., Karnataka, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Orissa,
Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal
Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.

4. WITHDRAWAL OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON

Like last two years, this year also there was delay in the withdrawal of
southwest monsoon due to rainfall activity over north India in associated with the
mid latitude westerly activities. The withdrawal of SW Monsoon from west
Rajasthan started only on 25th September (a delay of more than 3 weeks). The
normal date of withdrawal to start from extreme western parts of Rajasthan is 1 st
September. Subsequently, it withdrew from most parts of the northwestern states
and from the northern parts of Gujarat on 28th September.

5. RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
The southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the
country as a whole and the four broad geographical regions are as follows

Long
Coefficient
Period
Actual Actual Of Variation
Region Average
(mm) % of LPA (CV)
(LPA)
% of LPA
(mm)
All-India 689.9 892.5 77 10
Northwest(NW) India 392.1 611.7 64 19
Central India 795.4 995.1 80 14
South peninsula 692.9 722.5 96 15
Northeast (NE) India 1037.7 1427.3 73 8

The season rainfall is classified as normal when the actual rainfall is within
LPA ± CV. The CV for season rainfall over various regions is given in the table
above. Similarly season rainfall is classified as deficient when the actual rainfall
is less than (LPA – CV) and as excess when the actual rainfall is more than
(LPA+CV). Accordingly the 2009 season rainfall over the country as a whole
was deficient (77% of LPA), and was the lowest recorded rainfall in recent
decade. Similarly season rainfalls over NW India (64% of LPA), Central India
(80% of LPA), and NE India (73% of LPA) were also deficient and that over
South Peninsula (96% of LPA) was normal.
The sub-divisionwise season rainfall is shown in Fig.3. The rainfall
recorded over 23 out of 36 subdivisions was deficient. Out of the
remaining 13 subdivisions, only 3 subdivisions (Saurashtra & Kutch, North
Interior Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka) recorded excess rainfall
and remaining 10 subdivisions recorded normal rainfall. Out of 526
meteorological districts for which data are available, 215 districts (41) % of the
meteorological districts received excess/normal rainfall and the remaining 311
districts (59%) received deficient/scanty rainfall during the season.
The monthly monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole during all
the months was below the respective LPA. However, the rainfall during
July (96% of LPA) was within the normal limit. Monsoon rainfall over the
country as a whole was 53% of LPA during June, 73% of LPA in August
and 79% of LPA during September.
The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall is shown in Fig.4.
In June, large rainfall deficiency was observed over most parts of
the country due to prolonged hiatus in the monsoon advance over central
and northern parts of the country. During July, rainfall over most of the
subdivisions along the foothills of Himalayas and few in the eastern side
of the Peninsula were highly deficient. The rainfall over most of the
subdivisions along the monsoon trough zone region and along west coast
was normal/excess due to the strengthening of monsoon over these
regions in association with the passage of fast moving synoptic scale
systems from Bay region along the monsoon trough zone. In August
rainfall over most of the subdivisions along the west coast and that over
NW India & neighboring central India were highly deficient. In September
the rainfall over all subdivisions from south Peninsula & neighboring
central India and that over few subdivisions from north was normal or
excess. Rainfall over other subdivisions was deficient or scanty.
Figures 5 and 6 depict the monsoon rainfall as received week by
week and the cumulative rainfall during the season. The weekly rainfalls
were below normal during most of the season except four weeks. These
are two middle weeks of July, last week of August and first week of
September. The cumulative rainfall distribution shows that the large
deficiency in rainfall during early part of the season caused the cumulative
seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole to remain below normal by
19% or more during every weeks of the season.

6. LONG RANGE FORECAST OF MONSOON RAINFALL

Based on an indigenously developed statistical model, it was
predicted that monsoon will set in over Kerala on 26 th May with a model
error of ±4days. The forecast came correct as the actual monsoon onset
over Kerala took place on 23 rd May, 3 days earlier than the forecasted
date. Thus this is the fifth consecutive correct operational forecast for the
monsoon onset over Kerala since issuing of operational forecast for the
event which started in 2005.
As per the first stage long range forecast issued on 17 th April, the
season (June-September) rainfall for the country as a whole was expected
to be 96% ± 5% of LPA. In the updated forecast issued on 24 th June, the
forecast for the country as a whole was revised to a lower value of 93%
±4% of LPA. However, the forecast was not correct as the actual area-
weighted rainfall for the country as a whole was 77% of LPA, well below
the lower limit of forecast value. The forecasts for the July & August
rainfall over the country as a whole were 93% & 101% of LPA respectively
with a model error of ± 9%. The Forecast for July rainfall turned out to be
correct as the actual July rainfall was 96% of LPA. But forecast for
August was not correct as the actual August rainfall was 73% of LPA,
which was much less than the lower limit of the forecast. Considering 4
broad geographical regions of India, the season rainfall was expected to
be 81% of its LPA over NW India, 99% of LPA over Central India, 92% of
LPA over NE India and 93% of LPA over South Peninsula all with a model
error of ±8%. These forecasts were indicating that the season rainfall
over the three geographical regions other than central India to be well
below respective LPA values. Particularly the forecasts for NW India and
NE India were one standard deviation below the respective LPA values.
The actual rainfalls over NW India, central India, NE India and south
Peninsula were 64%, 80%, 73% and 96% of the LPA respectively. Thus
although the actual rainfalls were less than the LPA values as expected,
the forecast over south Peninsula was only correct. The forecasts for
other three regions were not correct as the actual rainfalls were very much
less than the lower forecast limits.
The Table below gives the summary of the verification of the long
range forecasts issued for the 2009 Southwest monsoon.

Table: Details of long range forecasts and actual rainfall.

Region Period Issued on Forecast Actual

17 April, 2009 96% ± 5% of LPA

June to
All India 77% of LPA
September
24 June, 2009 93%± 4% of LPA

All India July 24 June, 2009 93%± 9% of LPA 96% of LPA

All India August 24 June, 2009 101% ± 9%of LPA 73% of LPA
Northwest
81% ± 8%of LPA 64% of LPA
India
Northeast
June to 92% ± 8%of LPA 73% of LPA
India 24 June, 2009
September
Central India 99% ± 8%of LPA 80% of LPA
South
93% ± 8%of LPA 96% of LPA
Peninsula

As a whole, the operational long range forecasts issued for 2009

south-west monsoon season were not very accurate. However, it may be
mentioned that other centers in India and abroad preparing experimental
forecasts for monsoon rainfall were also could not forecast the 2009
deficient monsoon rainfall correctly.
Fig.1: Progress of Southwest Monsoon – 2009
Fig.2: Tracks of the depressions formed over Indian seas during
the Southwest Monsoon Season– 2009
Fig.3: Sub-divisionwise rainfall distribution over India during southwest
monsoon season (June to September) – 2009
Fig.4: Sub-divisionwise monthly rainfall distribution over India
during southwest monsoon season – 2009
 30.0
21.1
20.0 15.2

10.0 6.1 4.0

PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE

0.0
-1.8
-10.0 -4.7
-8.3
-20.0 -18.1

-30.0
-29.4
-40.0 -37.3 -38.0 -38.5
-42.8 -41.2
-50.0
-51.5
-60.0 -56.2

-70.0 -64.4
-68.2

-80.0
3-Jun

17-Jun
10-Jun

24-Jun

15-Jul
1-Jul

8-Jul

22-Jul

29-Jul

9-Sep
5-Aug

12-Aug

26-Aug

2-Sep

23-Sep

30-Sep
19-Aug

16-Sep
WEEK ENDING

Fig.5: Week - by - Week Progress of the Monsoon Rainfall – 2009

0.0

-10.0
PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE

-20.0 -19.0 -19.3 -20.0

-21.2 -22.2
-22.7 -22.7
-25.2 -24.6
-26.7 -26.2
-30.0
-29.2

-35.7
-40.0 -38.6
-42.8
-45.5 -45.9
-50.0

-54.1
-60.0
3-Jun

10-Jun

17-Jun

24-Jun

29-Jul
15-Jul

22-Jul
1-Jul

8-Jul

5-Aug

9-Sep
19-Aug

26-Aug

2-Sep

23-Sep

30-Sep
12-Aug

16-Sep

FOR THE PERIOD FROM 1ST JUNE ONWARDS

Fig.6: Week - by - Week Progress of the Monsoon Rainfall - 2009 (Cumulative)