PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS FOR BIG MART SALES USING MACHINE

LEARNING ALGORITHMS

ABSTRACT
Nowadays shopping malls and Big Marts keep the track of
their sales data of each and every individual item for
predicting future demand of the customer and update the
inventory management as well. These data stores
basically contain a large number of customer data and
individual item attributes in a data warehouse. Further,
anomalies and frequent patterns are detected by mining
the data store from the data warehouse. The resultant
data can be used for predicting future sales volume with
the help of different machine learning techniques for the
retailers like Big Mart. In this paper, we propose a
predictive model using XG boost Regressor technique for
predicting the sales of a company like Big Mart and found
that the model produces better performance as
compared to existing models.

1
 CONTENT
Chapte List of content Page no.
rI Abstract 1
Ii List of acronyms
Ii List of figures
i Introduction
1
2 Literature Survey 13
3 System Requirements 17
3 Hardware Requirements
.
1
3 Software Requirements
.
2
3 Language Specification
.
3
3 History of
4 . python System 33
4 Analysis
4 Purpose
.
1
4 Scope
.
2
4 Existing System
.
3
4 Proposed System
5 . System Design 36
4
5 Input Design
.
1
2
 5 Output Design
.
2
5 Data Flow Diagram
6 . Module 42
3 Implementations
6 Modules
.
1
6 Data Collection
.
1
.
1
6 Data Set
.
1
.
2
6 Data Preparation
.
1
.
3
6 Model Selection
.
1
.
4
6 Analyze and Prediction
.
1
.
5
6 Accuracy on Test Set
.
1
.
6
6 Saving the Training
7 . Model 47
System Implementation
3
 1
.
7
8 System Testing 48
8 Unit Testing
.
1
8 Integration Testing
.
2

4
 8.3 Functional Testing
8.4 System Test
8.5 White Box Testing
8.6 Black Box Testing
8.7 Acceptance Testing
9 Results And Discussion 53

10 Conclusion 56

11 References 57

LIST OF FIGURES:

FIGURE NO. FIGURE NAME PAGE NO.

7.1 System Architecture 47

9.2 Data collection from kaggle 54

9.4 prediction of sales 55

9.6 performance values of proposed 56

model

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 CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION
Big Mart is a big supermarket chain, with stores all around the country and
its current board set out a challenge to all Data Scientist out there to help
them create a model that can predict the sales, per product, for each store
to give accurate results. Big Mart has collected sales data from Kaggle, for
various products across different stores in different cities. With this
information the corporation hopes we can identify the products and stores
which play a key role in their sales and use that information to take the

correct measures to ensure success of their business .

1.1 PROPOSED ALGORITHMS

Decision Trees are a type of Supervised Machine Learning (that is you

explain what the input is and what the corresponding output is in the training
data) where the data is continuously split according to a certain parameter.
The tree can be explained by two entities, namely decision nodes and
leaves. The leaves are the decisions or the final outcomes. And the decision

nodes are where the data is split.

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An example of a decision tree can be explained using above binary tree.
Let‟s say you want to predict whether a person is fit given their information
like age, eating habit, and physical activity, etc. The decision nodes here
are questions like „What‟s the age?‟,
„Does he exercise?‟, „Does he eat a lot of pizzas‟? And the leaves, which are
outcomes like either „fit‟, or „unfit‟. In this case this was a binary
classification problem (a yes no type problem).

There are two main types of Decision Trees:

Classification trees (Yes/No types)

What we‟ve seen above is an example of classification tree, where the

outcome was a variable like „fit‟ or „unfit‟. Here the decision variable is
Categorical.

Regression trees (Continuous data types)

Here the decision or the outcome variable is Continuous, e.g. a

number like 123. Working

Now that we know what a Decision Tree is, we‟ll see how it works internally.
There are many algorithms out there which construct Decision Trees, but one
of the best is called as ID3 Algorithm. ID3 Stands for Iterative Dichotomiser
3.

Before discussing the ID3 algorithm, we‟ll go through few definitions.

o Decision Tree is a Supervised learning technique that can be used for

both classification and Regression problems, but mostly it is preferred
for solving Classification problems. It is a tree-structured classifier,
where internal nodes represent the features of a dataset, branches
represent the decision rules and each leaf node represents the outcome.

7
o In a Decision tree, there are two nodes, which are the Decision Node
and Leaf Node. Decision nodes are used to make any decision and have
multiple branches, whereas Leaf nodes are the output of those
decisions and do not contain any further branches.

8
 o The decisions or the test are performed on the basis of features of
the given dataset.

o It is a graphical representation for getting all the possible solutions to a

problem/decision based on given conditions.

o It is called a decision tree because, similar to a tree, it starts with the

root node, which expands on further branches and constructs a tree-
like structure.

o In order to build a tree, we use the CART algorithm, which

stands for Classification and Regression Tree algorithm.

o A decision tree simply asks a question, and based on the answer

(Yes/No), it further split the tree into subtrees.

o Below diagram explains the general structure of a decision tree:

Note: A decision tree can contain categorical data (YES/NO) as well as

numeric data.

Why use Decision Trees?

9
There are various algorithms in Machine learning, so choosing the best
algorithm for the given dataset and problem is the main point to remember
while creating a machine learning model. Below are the two reasons for
using the Decision tree:

o Decision Trees usually mimic human thinking ability while making a

decision, so it is easy to understand.

o The logic behind the decision tree can be easily understood because it
shows a tree-like structure.

Decision Tree Terminologies

Root Node: Root node is from where the decision tree starts. It represents
the entire dataset, which further gets divided into two or more homogeneous
sets.
Leaf Node: Leaf nodes are the final output node, and the tree cannot be
segregated further after getting a leaf node.
Splitting: Splitting is the process of dividing the decision node/root node
into sub- nodes according to the given conditions.
Branch/Sub Tree: A tree formed by splitting the tree.
Pruning: Pruning is the process of removing the unwanted branches from the tree.
Parent/Child node: The root node of the tree is called the parent node, and
other nodes are called the child nodes.

How does the Decision Tree algorithm Work?

In a decision tree, for predicting the class of the given dataset, the algorithm
starts from the root node of the tree. This algorithm compares the values of
root attribute with the record (real dataset) attribute and, based on the
comparison, follows the branch and jumps to the next node.

For the next node, the algorithm again compares the attribute value with the
other sub- nodes and move further. It continues the process until it reaches
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the leaf node of the tree. The complete process can be better understood
using the below algorithm:

11
Competitive questions on Structures in
Hindi Keep Watching

o Step-1: Begin the tree with the root node, says S, which contains the
complete dataset.

o Step-2: Find the best attribute in the dataset using Attribute Selection
Measure (ASM).
o Step-3: Divide the S into subsets that contains possible values for the
best attributes.

o Step-4: Generate the decision tree node, which contains the best attribute.
o Step-5: Recursively make new decision trees using the subsets of the
dataset created in step -3. Continue this process until a stage is
reached where you cannot further classify the nodes and called the
final node as a leaf node.

Example: Suppose there is a candidate who has a job offer and wants to
decide whether he should accept the offer or Not. So, to solve this problem,
the decision tree starts with the root node (Salary attribute by ASM). The root
node splits further into the next decision node (distance from the office) and
one leaf node based on the corresponding labels. The next decision node
further gets split into one decision node (Cab facility) and one leaf node.
Finally, the decision node splits into two leaf nodes (Accepted offers and
Declined offer). Consider the below diagram:

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Attribute Selection Measures

While implementing a Decision tree, the main issue arises that how to select
the best attribute for the root node and for sub-nodes. So, to solve such
problems there is a technique which is called as Attribute selection measure or
ASM. By this measurement, we can easily select the best attribute for the
nodes of the tree. There are two popular techniques for ASM, which are:

o Information Gain
o Gini Index

1. Information Gain:

o Information gain is the measurementof changes in entropy after

the segmentation of a dataset based on an attribute.

o It calculates how much information a feature provides us about a class.

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 o According to the value of information gain, we split the node and build
the decision tree.

o A decision tree algorithm always tries to maximize the value of

information gain, and a node/attribute having the highest information
gain is split first. It can be calculated using the below formula:

1. Information Gain= Entropy(S)- [(Weighted Avg) *Entropy(each feature)

Entropy: Entropy is a metric to measure the impurity in a given attribute. It specifies

randomness in data. Entropy can be calculated as:

Entropy(s)= -P(yes)log2 P(yes)- P(no) log2 P(no)

Where,

o S= Total number of samples

o P(yes)= probability of yes
o P(no)= probability of no

2. Gini Index:

o Gini index is a measure of impurity or purity used while creating a

decision tree in the CART(Classification and Regression Tree)
algorithm.

o An attribute with the low Gini index should be preferred as compared

to the high Gini index.

o It only creates binary splits, and the CART algorithm uses the Gini
index to create binary splits.

o Gini index can be calculated using the below

formula: Gini Index= 1- ∑jPj2

14
Pruning: Getting an Optimal Decision tree

15
Pruning is a process of deleting the unnecessary nodes from a tree in order to get the
optimal decision tree.

A too-large tree increases the risk of overfitting, and a small tree may not
capture all the important features of the dataset. Therefore, a technique that
decreases the size of the learning tree without reducing accuracy is known
as Pruning. There are mainly two types of tree pruning technology used:

o Cost Complexity Pruning

o Reduced Error Pruning.

Advantages of the Decision Tree

o It is simple to understand as it follows the same process which a

human follow while making any decision in real-life.

o It can be very useful for solving decision-related problems.

o It helps to think about all the possible outcomes for a problem.
o There is less requirement of data cleaning compared to other algorithms.

Disadvantages of the Decision Tree

o The decision tree contains lots of layers, which makes it complex.

o It may have an overfitting issue, which can be resolved using the
Random Forest algorithm.

o For more class labels, the computational complexity of the decision

tree may increase.

CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE SURVEY

16
1) A comparative study of linear and nonlinear models for aggregate retails sales
forecasting

AUTHORS: Ching Wu Chu and Guoqiang Peter Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to compare the accuracy of various linear and
nonlinear models for forecasting aggregate retail sales. Because of the
strong seasonal fluctuations observed in the retail sales, several traditional
seasonal forecasting methods such as the time series approach and the
regression approach with seasonal dummy variables and trigonometric
functions are employed. The nonlinear versions of these methods are
implemented via neural networks that are generalized nonlinear functional
approximators. Issues of seasonal time series modeling such as
deseasonalization are also investigated. Using multiple cross-validation
samples, we find that the nonlinear models are able to outperform their
linear counterparts in out-of- sample forecasting, and prior seasonal
adjustment of the data can significantly improve forecasting performance of
the neural network model. The overall best model is the neural network built
on deseasonalized time series data. While seasonal dummy variables can be
useful in developing effective regression models for predicting retail sales,
the performance of dummy regression models may not be robust.
Furthermore, trigonometric models are not useful in aggregate retail sales
forecasting.

2) Sustainable development and management in consumer electronics using soft

computation

AUTHORS: Wang, Haoxiang

17
Combination of Green supply chain management, Green product deletion
decision and green cradle-to-cradle performance evaluation with Adaptive-
Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to create a green system. Several
factors like design process, client

18
specification, computational intelligence and soft computing are analysed
and emphasis is given on solving problems of real domain. In this paper, the
consumer electronics and smart systems that produce nonlinear outputs are
considered. ANFIS is used for handling these nonlinear outputs and offer
sustainable development and management. This system offers decision
making considering multiple objectives and optimizing multiple outputs. The
system also provides efficient control performance and faster data transfer.

3) Data Mining based Prediction of Demand in Indian Market for Refurbished

Electronics

AUTHORS: Suma, V., and Shavige Malleshwara Hills

There has been an increasing demand in the e-commerce market for

refurbished products across India during the last decade. Despite these
demands, there has been very little research done in this domain. The real-
world business environment, market factors and varying customer behavior
of the online market are often ignored in the conventional statistical models
evaluated by existing research work. In this paper, we do an extensive
analysis of the Indian e-commerce market using data-mining approach for
prediction of demand of refurbished electronics. The impact of the real-world
factors on the demand and the variables are also analyzed. Real-world
datasets from three random e-commerce websites are considered for
analysis. Data accumulation, processing and validation is carried out by
means of efficient algorithms. Based on the results of this analysis, it is
evident that highly accurate prediction can be made with the proposed
approach despite the impacts of varying customer behavior and market
factors. The results of analysis are represented graphically and can be used
for further analysis of the market and launch of new products.

19
4) Forecasting Monthly Sales Retail Time Series: A Case Study

20
AUTHORS: Giuseppe Nunnari, Valeria Nunnari

This paper presents a case study concerning the forecasting of monthly retail
time series recorded by the US Census Bureau from 1992 to 2016. The
modeling problem is tackled in two steps. First, original time series are de-
trended by using a moving windows averaging approach. Subsequently, the
residual time series are modeled by Non-linear Auto-Regressive (NAR)
models, by using both Neuro-Fuzzy and Feed- Forward Neural Networks
approaches. The goodness of the forecasting models, is objectively assessed
by calculating the bias, the mae and the rmse errors. Finally, the model skill
index is calculated considering the traditional persistent model as reference.
Results show that there is a convenience in using the proposed approaches,
compared to the reference one.

5) Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of the Overlay Accuracy Model

Zone AUTHORS: Zone-Ching Lin, Wen-Jang Wu

The multiple linear regression method was used to analyze the overlay accuracy
model and study the feasibility of using linear methods to solve parameters
of nonlinear overlay equations. The methods of analysis include changing
the number of sample points to derive the least sample number required for
solving the accurate estimated parameter values. Besides, different high-
order lens distortion parameters were ignored, and only the various modes of
low-order parameters were regressed to compare their effects on the overlay
analysis results. The findings indicate that given a sufficient number of
sample points, the usage of multiple linear regression analysis to solve the
high-order nonlinear overlay accuracy model containing seventh-order lens
distortion parameters is feasible. When the estimated values of low-order
overlay distortion parameters are far greater than those of high-order lens
21
distortion parameters, excellent overlay improvement can still be obtained
even if the high-order lens distortion parameters are ignored. When the
overlay at the four corners of image field obviously

22
exceeds that near the center of image field, it is found, through simulation,
that the seventh-order parameters overlay model established in this paper
has to be corrected by high-order lens distortion parameters to significantly
improve the overlay accuracy.

DATA MODULES

Data Collection Module

Data Pre-Processing module
Evaluation Module
Prediction Module

Data Collection Module:

In this module, the raw data collected by a big mart

will be pre-processed for missing data, anomalies and outlier. An algorithm will
then be trained to construct a model on that data. It is a system in which three
functions are combined. It is used to extract and transform the data from one
database into an appropriate format.

Data Pre-Processing Module:

The dataset used is Big Mart sales result and there

are total 9 attributes such as Item_Type, item_MRP, Item_fat_content, Outlet_size,
Outlet_type, Item_weight, Item_visiblity, Outlet_Establishment_Year,
Outlet_Location_Type. Item Outlet Sales is the target variable and the other
remaining attributes are independent variable. The pre-processing of data is a

23
method for preparing and adapting raw data to a model of learning. This is the

24
first and significant step to construct a machine learning model. Real-world data
generally contain noise, missing values and may not be used in an unusable
format especially for machine learning models .

Evaluation Module:

Evaluation of the model is the vital part of creating an efficient

machine learning model. Therefore it is important to create a model and get
suggestions from it in terms of metrics. It will take and continue until we achieve
good accuracy according to the value obtained from metric improvements.
Evaluation metrics describe one model’s results. The ability to distinguish
between model outcomes is an important feature of the evaluation metrics. Here,
we used Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE)metric for evaluation process,

Prediction module:

We propose a predictive model using XG boost Regressor

technique for predicting the sales of a company like Big Mart and found that the
model produces better performance as compared to existing models

CHAPTER 3

SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS

3.1 HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS:

25
  System : Pentium i3 Processor.
 Hard Disk : 500 GB.
 Monitor : 15‟‟ LED
 Input Devices : Keyboard, Mouse
 Ram : 4 GB

3.2 SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS:

 Operating system : Windows 10.

 Coding Language : Python
 Web Framework : Flask

3.3 SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT

Python:

Python is a high-level, interpreted, interactive and object-oriented scripting

language. Python is designed to be highly readable. It uses English keywords
frequently where as other languages use punctuation, and it has fewer

syntactical constructions than other languages.

 Python is Interpreted − Python is processed at runtime by the

interpreter. You do not need to compile your program before
executing it. This is similar to PERL and PHP.

 Python is Interactive − You can actually sit at a Python prompt

and interact with the interpreter directly to write your
programs.

 Python is Object-Oriented − Python supports Object-Oriented

26
style or technique of programming that encapsulates code
within objects.

27
  Python is a Beginner's Language − Python is a great language
for the beginner-level programmers and supports the
development of a wide range of applications from simple text
processing to WWW browsers to games.

3.4 History of Python

Python was developed by Guido van Rossum in the late eighties and
early nineties at the National Research Institute for Mathematics
and Computer Science in the Netherlands.

Python is derived from many other languages, including ABC,

Modula-3, C, C++, Algol-68, SmallTalk, and Unix shell and other
scripting languages.

Python is copyrighted. Like Perl, Python source code is now available

under the GNU General Public License (GPL).

Python is now maintained by a core development team at the

institute, although Guido van Rossum still holds a vital role in
directing its progress.

Python Features

Python's features include −

 Easy-to-learn − Python has few keywords, simple structure,

and a clearly defined syntax. This allows the student to pick
up the language quickly.

 Easy-to-read − Python code is more clearly defined and

visible to the eyes.

28
 Easy-to-maintain − Python's source code is fairly easy-to-maintain.

29
  A broad standard library − Python's bulk of the library is very
portable and cross-platform compatible on UNIX, Windows,
and Macintosh.

 Interactive Mode − Python has support for an interactive

mode which allows interactive testing and debugging of
snippets of code.

 Portable − Python can run on a wide variety of hardware

platforms and has the same interface on all platforms.

 Extendable − You can add low-level modules to the Python

interpreter. These modules enable programmers to add to or
customize their tools to be more efficient.

 Databases − Python provides interfaces to all major

commercial databases.

 GUI Programming − Python supports GUI applications that

can be created and ported to many system calls, libraries
and windows systems, such as Windows MFC, Macintosh,
and the X Window system of Unix.

 Scalable − Python provides a better structure and support for

large programs than shell scripting.

Apart from the above-mentioned features, Python has a big list of

good features, few are listed below −

 It supports functional and structured programming methods

as well as OOP.

 It can be used as a scripting language or can be compiled to

30
byte- code for building large applications.

31
  It provides very high-level dynamic data types and supports
dynamic type checking.

 It supports automatic garbage collection.

 It can be easily integrated with C, C++, COM, ActiveX,

CORBA, and Java.

CHAPTER 4
SYSTEM ANALYSIS
4.1 PURPOSE

The purpose of this document is predicting big mart sales using machine
learning algorithms. In detail, this document will provide a general description
of our project, including user requirements, product perspective, and overview
of requirements, general constraints. In addition, it will also provide the
specific requirements and functionality needed for this project - such as

interface, functional requirements and performance requirements.

4.2 SCOPE

The scope of this SRSdocument persists for the entire life cycle of the
project. This document defines the final state of the software requirements
agreed upon by the customers and designers. Finally at the end of the project
execution all the functionalities may be traceable from the SRSto the product.
The document describes the functionality, performance, constraints, interface
and reliability for the entire life cycle of the project.

32
4.3 EXISTING SYSTEM:

33
  Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, (ARMA) Auto-Regressive
Moving Average, have been utilized to develop a few deals forecast
standards. Be that as it may, deals anticipating is a refined issue and
is influenced by both outer and inside factors, and there are two
significant detriments to the measurable technique as set out in A. S.
Weigend et A mixture occasional quantum relapse approach and
(ARIMA) Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average way to deal with
every day food deals anticipating were recommend by N. S. Arunraj
and furthermore found that the exhibition of the individual model was
moderately lower than that of the crossover model.
 E. Hadavandi utilized the incorporation of “Genetic Fuzzy Systems
(GFS)” and information gathering to conjecture the deals of the printed
circuit board. In their paper, K-means bunching delivered K groups of
all information records. At that point, all bunches were taken care of
into autonomous with a data set tuning and rule-based extraction
ability.
 Perceived work in the field of deals gauging was done by P.A. Castillo,
Sales estimating of new distributed books was done in a publication
market the executives setting utilizing computational techniques.
“Artificial neural organizations” are additionally utilized nearby income
estimating. Fluffy Neural Networks have been created with the
objective of improving prescient effectiveness, and the Radial “Base
Function Neural Network (RBFN)” is required to have an incredible
potential for anticipating deals.

DISADVANTAGES OF EXISTING SYSTEM:

 Complex models like neural networks are overkill for simple problems
like regression.
 Existing system models prediction analysis which gives less accuracy.
 Forecasting methods and applications contains Lack of Data and short
life cycles. So some of the data like historical data, consumer-oriented

34
 markets face uncertain demands, can be prediction for accurate result.

4.4 PROPOSED SYSTEM:

35
  The objective of this proposed system is to predict the future sales
from given data of the previous year's using Decision Tree Regression
 Another objective is to conclude the best model which is more efficient
and gives fast and accurate result by using Decision Tree Regression.
 To find out key factors that can increase their sales and what changes
could be made to the product or store's characteristics.
 Experts also shown that a smart sales forecasting program is required
to manage vast volumes of data for business organizations.
 We are predicting the accuracy for Decision Tree Regression. Our
predictions help big marts to refine their methodologies and strategies
which in turn helps them to increase their profit. The results predicted
will be very useful for the executives of the company to know about
their sales and profits. This will also give them the idea for their new
locations or Centre‟s of Bigmart

ADVANTAGES OF PROPOSED SYSTEM:

 Business assessments are based on the speed and precision of the

methods used to analyze the results. The Machine Learning Methods
presented in this research paper should provide an effective method
for data shaping and decision-making.
 New approaches that can better identify consumer needs and
formulate marketing plans will be implemented.
 The outcome of machine learning algorithm will help to select the most
suitable demand prediction algorithm and with the aid of which
BigMart will prepare its marketing campaigns.

CHAPTER 5

SYSTEM DESIGN

5.1 INPUT DESIGN

36
The input design is the link between the information system and the user. It
comprises the developing specification and procedures for data preparation
and those steps are necessary to put transaction data in to a usable form for
processing can be achieved by inspecting the computer to read data from a
written or printed document or it can occur by having people keying the
data directly into the system. The design of input focuses on controlling the
amount of input required, controlling the errors, avoiding delay, avoiding
extra steps and keeping the process simple. The input is designed in such a
way so that it provides security and ease of use with retaining the privacy.
Input Design considered the following things:
 What data should be given as input?
 How the data should be arranged or coded?
 The dialog to guide the operating personnel in providing input.
 Methods for preparing input validations and steps to follow when error occur.
5.2 OUTPUT DESIGN

A quality output is one, which meets the requirements of the end user
and presents the information clearly. In any system results of processing are
communicated to the users and to other system through outputs. In output
design it is determined how the information is to be displaced for immediate
need and also the hard copy output. It is the most important and direct
source information to the user. Efficient and intelligent output design
improves the system‟s relationship to help user decision-making.

The output form of an information system should accomplish one or more of the
following objectives.

 Convey information about past activities, current status or projections of the

 Future.
 Signal important events, opportunities, problems, or warnings.
 Trigger an action.
 Confirm an action
5.3 DATA FLOW DIAGRAM
37
 1. The DFD is also called as bubble chart. It is a simple graphical
formalism that can be used to represent a system in terms of input
data to the system, various processing carried out on this data, and
the output data is generated by this system.
2. The data flow diagram (DFD) is one of the most important modeling
tools. It is used to model the system components. These components
are the system process, the data used by the process, an external
entity that interacts with the system and the information flows in the
system.
3. DFD shows how the information moves through the system and how it
is modified by a series of transformations. It is a graphical technique
that depicts information flow and the transformations that are applied
as data moves from input to output.
4. DFD is also known as bubble chart. A DFD may be used to represent a
system at any level of abstraction. DFD may be partitioned into levels
that represent increasing information flow and functional detail.

UML DIAGRAMS

38
 UML stands for Unified Modeling Language. UML is a standardized
general- purpose modeling language in the field of object-oriented software
engineering. The standard is managed, and was created by, the Object
Management Group.
The goal is for UML to become a common language for creating models
of object oriented computer software. In its current form UML is comprised of
two major components: a Meta-model and a notation. In the future, some
form of method or process may also be added to; or associated with, UML.
The Unified Modeling Language is a standard language for specifying,
Visualization, Constructing and documenting the artifacts of software
system, as well as for business modeling and other non-software systems.
The UML represents a collection of best engineering practices that
have proven successful in the modeling of large and complex systems.
The UML is a very important part of developing objects oriented
software and the software development process. The UML uses mostly
graphical notations to express the design of software projects.

GOALS:
The Primary goals in the design of the UML are as follows:
1. Provide users a ready-to-use, expressive visual modeling Language so
that they can develop and exchange meaningful models.
2. Provide extendibility and specialization mechanisms to extend the core
concepts.
3. Be independent of particular programming languages and development
process.
4. Provide a formal basis for understanding the modeling language.
5. Encourage the growth of OO tools market.
6. Support higher level development concepts such as collaborations,
frameworks, patterns and components.
7. Integrate best practices.

USE CASE DIAGRAM

39
A use case diagram in the Unified Modeling Language (UML) is a type of
behavioral diagram defined by and created from a Use-case analysis. Its
purpose is to present a

40
graphical overview of the functionality provided by a system in terms of
actors, their goals (represented as use cases), and any dependencies
between those use cases. The main purpose of a use case diagram is to
show what system functions are performed for which actor. Roles of the
actors in the system can be depicted.

SEQUENCE DIAGRAM

A sequence diagram in Unified Modeling Language (UML) is a kind of

interaction diagram that shows how processes operate with one another and
in what order. It is a construct of a Message Sequence Chart. Sequence
diagrams are sometimes called event diagrams, event scenarios, and timing

diagrams.

41
 CHAPTER 6

6.1 MODULES:

 Data Collection
 Dataset
 Data Preparation
 Model Selection
 Analyze and Prediction
 Accuracy on test set
 Saving the Trained Model

MODULES DESCSRIPTION:

6.1.1 Data Collection:

This is the first real step towards the real development of a machine learning
model, collecting data. This is a critical step that will cascade in how good
the model will be, the more and better data that we get, the better our
model will perform.

42
There are several techniques to collect the data, like web scraping, manual
interventions and etc.

Predictive Analysis for Big Mart Sales Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Data set Link: https://www.kaggle.com/shivan118/big-mart-sales-prediction-datasets

6.1.2 Dataset:

The dataset consists of 8523 individual data. There are 12 columns in the
dataset, which are described below.

1. ItemIdentifier ---- Unique product

ID 2.ItemWeight ---- Weight of
product 3.ItemFatContent ---- Whether the product is low fat or
not 4.ItemVisibility ---- The % of the total display area of all products in a
store allocated to the particular
product
5. ItemType ---- The category to which the product belongs
6. ItemMRP ---- Maximum Retail Price (list price) of the product
7.OutletIdentifier ---- Unique store
ID 8.OutletEstablishmentYear ---- The year in which the store was established
9.OutletSize ---- The size of the store in terms of ground area covered
10.OutletLocationType ---- The type of city in which the store is located
11.*OutletType ---- Whether the outlet is just a grocery store or some sort
ofsupermarket
12.ItemOutletSales ---- sales of the product in t particular store. This is the
outcome variable to be predicted.

2.

6.1.3 Data Preparation:

Wrangle data and prepare it for training. Clean that which may require it
(remove duplicates, correct errors, deal with missing values, normalization,
43
data type conversions, etc.)

44
Randomize data, which erases the effects of the particular order in which we
collected and/or otherwise prepared our data

Visualize data to help detect relevant relationships between variables

or class imbalances (bias alert!), or perform other exploratory analysis

Split into training and evaluation sets

6.1.4 Model Selection:

We used decision tree regression machine learning algorithm , We got a

accuracy of 95.7% on test set so we implemented this algorithm.

Decision tree regression

Decision Tree is a decision-making tool that uses a flowchart-like tree

structure or is a model of decisions and all of their possible results, including
outcomes, input costs, and utility. Decision-tree algorithm falls under the
category of supervised learning algorithms. It works for both continuous as
well as categorical output variables. The branches/edges represent the result
of the node and the nodes have either:

Conditions [Decision

Nodes] Result [End

Nodes]

The branches/edges represent the truth/falsity of the statement and take

makes a decision based on that in the example below which shows a
decision tree that evaluates the smallest of three numbers:

Decision Tree Regression: Decision tree regression observes features of an

object and trains a model in the structure of a tree to predict data in the
45
future to produce meaningful continuous output. Continuous output means
that the output/result is not discrete, i.e., it is not represented just by a
discrete, known set of numbers or values.

46
6.1.5 Analyze and Prediction:

In the actual dataset, we chose only 9 features:

1.ItemWeight ---- Weight of

product 2.ItemFatContent ---- Whether the product is low fat or
not 3.ItemVisibility ---- The % of the total display area of all products in a
store allocated to the particular
product
4.ItemType ---- The category to which the product belongs
5.ItemMRP ---- Maximum Retail Price (list price) of the product
6.OutletEstablishmentYear ---- The year in which the store was established
7.OutletSize ---- The size of the store in terms of ground area covered
8.OutletLocationType ---- The type of city in which the store is located
9.*OutletType ---- Whether the outlet is just a grocery store or some sort
of supermarket

6.1.6 Accuracy on test set:

We got an accuracy of 95.80% on test set.

6.1.7 Saving the Trained Model:

Once you‟re confident enough to take your trained and tested model into the
production- ready environment, the first step is to save it into a .h5 (or)
.pkl file using a library like pickle .
Make sure you have pickle installed in your
environment. Next, let‟s import the module and

47
dump the model into .pkl file

48
 CHAPTER 7

SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION:

7.1 SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE:

The system architectural design is the design process for identifying the
subsystems making up the system and framework for subsystem control and
communication. The goal of the architectural design is to establish the
overall structure of software system.

Pre-
Decision Tree Predicting the Performance
processing
Regression Sales based on Analysis and
and Feature
Big Mart the given Graph
Selection
Sales features
Dataset

49
 CHAPTER-8
SYSTEM TESTING

The purpose of testing is to discover errors. Testing is the process of trying to

discover every conceivable fault or weakness in a work product. It provides a
way to check the functionality of components, sub assemblies, assemblies
and/or a finished product It is the process of exercising software with the
intent of ensuring that the

Software system meets its requirements and user expectations and does not
fail in an unacceptable manner. There are various types of test. Each test
type addresses a specific testing requirement.

TYPES OF TESTS

8.1 Unit testing

Unit testing involves the design of test cases that validate that the
internal program logic is functioning properly, and that program inputs
produce valid outputs. All decision branches and internal code flow should be
validated. It is the testing of individual software units of the application .it is
done after the completion of an individual unit before integration. This is a
structural testing, that relies on knowledge of its construction and is
invasive. Unit tests perform basic tests at component level and test a
specific business process, application, and/or system configuration. Unit tests
ensure that each unique path of a business process performs accurately to
the documented specifications and contains clearly defined inputs and

50
expected results.

51
8.2 Integration testing

Integration tests are designed to test integrated software components

to determine if they actually run as one program. Testing is event driven and
is more concerned with the basic outcome of screens or fields. Integration
tests demonstrate that although the components were individually
satisfaction, as shown by successfully unit testing, the combination of
components is correct and consistent. Integration testing is specifically
aimed at exposing the problems that arise from the combination of
components.

8.3 Functional test

Functional tests provide systematic demonstrations that functions tested

are available as specified by the business and technical requirements,
system documentation, and user manuals.

Functional testing is centered on the following items:

Valid Input : identified classes of valid input must be

accepted. Invalid Input : identified classes of invalid input

must be rejected. Functions : identified functions must

be exercised.

Output : identified classes of application outputs must be

exercised. Systems/Procedures: interfacing systems or procedures must

be invoked.

52
 Organization and preparation of functional tests is focused on
requirements, key functions, or special test cases. In addition, systematic
coverage pertaining to identify Business process flows; data fields,
predefined processes, and successive processes

53
must be considered for testing. Before functional testing is complete, additional
tests are identified and the effective value of current tests is determined.

8.4 System Test

System testing ensures that the entire integrated software system meets
requirements. It tests a configuration to ensure known and predictable
results. An example of system testing is the configuration oriented system
integration test. System testing is based on process descriptions and flows,
emphasizing pre-driven process links and integration points.

8.5 White Box Testing

White Box Testing is a testing in which in which the software tester has
knowledge of the inner workings, structure and language of the software, or
at least its purpose. It is purpose. It is used to test areas that cannot be
reached from a black box level.

8.6 Black Box Testing

Black Box Testing is testing the software without any knowledge of the
inner workings, structure or language of the module being tested. Black box
tests, as most other kinds of tests, must be written from a definitive source
document, such as specification or requirements document, such as
specification or requirements document. It is a testing in which the software
under test is treated, as a black box .you cannot “see” into it. The test
provides inputs and responds to outputs without considering how the
software works.

Unit Testing:

54
 Unit testing is usually conducted as part of a combined code and unit
test phase of the software lifecycle, although it is not uncommon for coding
and unit testing to be conducted as two distinct phases.

Test strategy and approach

Field testing will be performed manually and functional tests will be written in
detail.

Test objectives
 All field entries must work properly.
 Pages must be activated from the identified link.
 The entry screen, messages and responses must not be delayed.

Features to be tested
 Verify that the entries are of the correct format
 No duplicate entries should be allowed
 All links should take the user to the correct page.

Integration Testing

Software integration testing is the incremental integration testing of

two or more integrated software components on a single platform to produce
failures caused by interface defects.

The task of the integration test is to check that components or

software applications, e.g. components in a software system or – one
step up – software applications at the company level – interact without
error.
55
Test Results: All the test cases mentioned above passed successfully. No defects
encountered.

8.7 Acceptance Testing

User Acceptance Testing is a critical phase of any project and requires

significant participation by the end user. It also ensures that the sytem
meets the functional requirements.

Test Results: All the test cases mentioned above passed successfully. No defects
encountered.

CHAPTER 9

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

56
 FIG 9.1 lOG IN PAGE

FIG 9.2 DATA COLLECTION FROM KAGGLE

57
 FIG 9.3 PREPOCESSED DATASET OF BIGMART SALES

FIG 9.4 PREDICTION OF SALES OF A PRODUCT

58
FIG 9.5 COMPARISION GRAPH ON SALES OF ITEM TYPE

FIG 9.6 PERFORMANCE VALUES OF PROPOSED MODEL

CHAPTER 10

59
 CONCLUSION
In this work, the effectiveness of Decision Tree Regression on the data on
revenue and review of, best performance-algorithm, here propose software
to using regression approach for predicting the sales centered on sales data
from the past the accuracy of linear regression prediction can be enhanced
with this method, and Decision Tree Regression can be determined. So, we
can conclude Decision Tree Regression gives the better prediction with
respect to Accuracy.

FUTURE WORK:

In future, the forecasting sales and building a sales plan can help to avoid
unforeseen cash flow and manage production, staff and financing needs
more effectively. In future work we can also consider with the ARIMA model

which shows the time series graph.

CHAPTER-11

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