Scribd
Upload
18 views17 pages

Chapter 3 Technology Forecasting

Technology forecasting involves predicting future technological characteristics and timing based on available information, with a focus on organizational goals. It employs various methods and principles to enhance accuracy, including multi-method approaches and diverse expertise. The process is essential for long-term planning, helping industries identify opportunities, make informed investment decisions, and project market needs.

Uploaded by

hexshakya
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
18 views17 pages

Chapter 3 Technology Forecasting

Technology forecasting involves predicting future technological characteristics and timing based on available information, with a focus on organizational goals. It employs various methods and principles to enhance accuracy, including multi-method approaches and diverse expertise. The process is essential for long-term planning, helping industries identify opportunities, make informed investment decisions, and project market needs.

Uploaded by

hexshakya
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 17

Technology Forecasting

Chapter 3
Technology Forecasting
• Forecasting refers to prediction of future on the basis of available information .
• Usually it refers to speed and power, which did not focus on structure of the organization.
• But inventions of future are not easy to predict, and forecasters were not focused in
evaluation of the forecast process.
• Technology forecasting predicts the future characteristics and timing of technology.
• It is done by considering parameters, attributes and capabilities of technology.
• Technology forecasting process helps in effective management of
technology

• Forecaster need to have clear idea of the organizational goals and


goals of the units for which forecasting is prepared.

• Technology forecasting does not have any law because of the


complexities that are associated with the systems.

• Complexities in technical, environmental, economical and ethical


contexts are very difficult to remove.
• Forecaster has to take historical examples in order to forecast in
better way.

• Forecasting is done at early stage of the project life cycle, which


influence the subsequent time of that project.

• Technological forecasting is future characteristics of useful


machines, products, processes, procedures or techniques.
Characteristics of Technology Forecasting
• Technological forecast relates to certain characteristics such as
• Levels of technical performance (e.g. technical specifications including energy,
efficiency, emission levels, speed, power, safety, temperature etc.
• Rate of technological advances (Rate at which the technological is
progressing.)

• It relates to useful machines, procedure techniques.

• Technological forecast can be short term, mid term and long term.
Technology Forecast Methods
1. Selecting Information Requirements :- We need to determine the purpose of
the forecast that has to serve as following
• The rate at which technologies replace the old one :- Eg. Copper cable
replaced by optical fiber.

• Assistance in the management of R&D :- Use of technology to minimize time


in R&D process.

• Evaluation of the present value of technology being developed :- considering


“when "and to what extent the technology will be commercialized.

• Evaluation of the new product that can be present threats or opportunities


• Analysis of new technologies that may change the strategies.
2. The element of a forecast - the output :- Data that is collected for the
forecasting process defines the amount of information that is contained in the
technology forecast as
a) Technology being Forecast (Qualitative Element)
b) Characteristics of the technology ( Quantitative Element)
c) Time (how much)
d) Probability(success/ failure)
3. Forecasting Resources – the output
a) Assumptions :- forecast depends upon the assumptions
b) Insight :- Helpful to start qualitative element of the forecast.
c) Data :- we need proper data that represents the technological
performance of the past to forecast for future.
d) Judgment :- when there is no data then judgment is to be made by
forecaster.
Key principles to follow specifically while forecasting technology
1. Define the Scope and Objectives Clearly :- Technology or area you are forecasting,
the specific prediction (e.g., performance, cost, adoption rate), and the intended use
of the forecast.
2. Employ a Multi-Method Approach :- Relying on a single forecasting technique can
lead to biased or incomplete predictions (Qualitative and Quantitative)
3. Engage Diverse Expertise :- Include scientists, engineers, market analysts, business
strategists, and even futurists to capture a wider range of insights and potential
influencing factors.
4. Consider the Technology Lifecycle Stage
5. Use the longest time series available
6. Incorporate External Factors Systematically
7. Iterate and Update Regularly
8. Theory should come first in analysis of data in developing econometrics models
9. Do not use judgment to revise predictions from cross sectional forecasting models
that contain relevant information
Principles of technology Forecasting
1. Correct for biases in judgment forecasts :- Strongly influenced by biases,
desiring for outcomes.
2. Use the longest time series available :- Use of long term and using relevant
data.
3. Econometric forecasting models should be fairly simple
4. Do not use judgment to revise predictions from cross sectional forecasting
models that contain relevant information :- Use available information rather
than searching for other cross sectional information.
• Technology Forecasting Process

Inputs Outputs
Forecasting Techniques
Assumptions Exploratory Normative Qualitative
Data Quantitative
Insights Time
Judgment Probability
Components of Technological Forecasting Process

Identify needs in
Technology Forecasting

Prepare project

Define Objectives of TF

Analyze and develop TF

Validate Results

Apply TF
Need & Role of Technology Forecasting
• TF is needed for the long term planning process.
• TF helps in finding out the opportunities at early stage and to evaluate the
significance of these opportunities.
• Industries utilize forecasting for different purposes as
• Identify and evaluate new technology based products.
• Make better technology investment decisions and projecting technology
advances by providing information.
• Define market needs for new technologies.
• Project market adoption rates for new technologies.
• Identify critical technologies and gaps.
• Formulate strategic models for future development.
Role of Forecasting in Planning Process
• Forecasting serves as input to the process of making plans and decisions
• Forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible to go.
• Forecast establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the plan can be make
to take full advantage of such rates.
• The forecast indicates possibilities which might be achieved, if desired.
Role of Forecasting in Planning Process cont..

• Forecast provides reference standard for the plan .


• Plan can be compared with the forecast at any point in time, to
determine that it can be still be fulfilled , or because of changes in the
forecast, it has to be changed.
• The forecast furnishes warning signals, which can alert the decision
maker that it will not be possible to continue present activities.
Forecasting Methods and Techniques
Different Technology Forecasting
Methods
Exploratory Normative

Mission
Growth Technology Relevance Morphological
Intuitive Extrapolation Flow
Curves Monitoring Trees Analysis Diagrams

1. Opinion 1. Linear 1. Pearl


Polls Extrapolation Curve

2. Exponential 2. Gompertz
2.Delphi Extrapolation Curve
Thank you

You might also like