PROBABILITY:

The statistical technique of studying the chances of occurrence or non-

occurrence/happening or not happening of certain phenomenon or events
is called probability.
Terminology used in probability:
Random experiment or trail: An experiment whose outcome cannot
be predicted is called random experiment or trail. Tossing a coin, rolling
a die etc are examples.
Outcome or output: The results of the random experiments are called
outcome or output.
Sample space: The collection of all possible outcome of the random
experiment is called sample space and it is denoted by S. When a die is
rolled then S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), tossing a coin then S = (H, T) are
examples of sample space.
Exhaustive cases: Total number of possible outcomes in any trail is
called exhaustive cases or events. For example in tossing a coin there are
2 exhaustive cases, in rolling a fair die there are six exhaustive cases.
Impossible event: The empty set  , is a sub set of sample space so it is
called impossible event.
Equally likely events: Outcomes of a trail are said to be equally likely if
none of them is expected to occur in preference to other. In tossing a fair
coin all the outcomes are equally likely.
Mutually exclusive events: Two or more events are said to be mutually
exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time. For example in tossing
a coin the event head and tail are mutually exclusive.
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Independent event: Two or more events are said to be independent if
the probability of occurrence of one does not affect the probability of
occurrence of other. If we draw a card from a pack of well shuffled cards
and replace it before drawing the second card, then the result of second
draw is independent of the first draw. But however, if the first card
drawn is not replaced then the second draw is dependent to the first
draw.
Favorable events: The number of cases favorable to an event in a trail is
the number of outcomes which entail the happening of the event. For
example, in tossing two coins, the number of cases favorable to the
event exactly one head is 2 i.e. HT, TH and for getting at least one head
is 3 i.e. HH, HT, TH.
Complementary event: Events A and Ac or A which are defined in
sample space are said to be complementary events if Ac has not any
sample point of A. If S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A = {1, 3, 5} then
complement of A is S – A = Ac = {2, 4, 6}.
Counting Process:
It is quite difficult to determine the set of all possible outcomes of a
random experiment by direct enumeration. There are three different
ways to determine the total possible ways of a random experiment.
I) Multiplicative rule: Let a random experiment is performed in
sequence of n ways in which first trail has k1 possibilities, second trail
has k 2 possibilities and so on.

Then total possible outcomes of all random experiment = k1 .k 2 .k 3 ............

Ex: Let a coin is tossed and a die is rolled simultaneously, then how
many possibilities are there?
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Here, when tossing a coin ( k1 ) = 2

When rolling a die ( k 2 ) = 6

Then total possible outcomes = k1 . k 2 = 2.6 = 12

Above example can also be present in tree diagram.

II) Combination: The combination of n things taken r at a time is given
by

nCr = n!
,
(n − r )!r!

Ex: The government has decided to lunch new hospitals in 5 cities from
total of 20 cities. How many ways government can select the cities?
Solution: Here n = 20, r = 5, then using the relation of combination we
get
20 C5 = 20! = 15504
(20 − 5)!5!

III) Permutation: The permutation of n things taken r at a time denoted

by nP is an order arrangement and is given by
r

n!
n Pr =
( n − r )!

Ex: Find the number of permutation of 4 different objects taken 2 at

time.
Solution: here n = 4, r = 2
Then 4 P2 = 4! = 12
(4 − 2)!

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Hence each of the arrangements which can be made by taking some or
all of a number of things is called permutation and it consider order of
the arrangement. Each of the groups or selections which can be made by
taking some or all of things is called combinations i.e. it does not
consider order of the objects. Thus the permutation which can be made
by taking the letters a, b ,c, d two at a time are: ab, ac, ad, bc, bd, cd, ba,
ca, da, cb, db, dc each of these presenting arrangement of two letters.
The combination which can be made by taking the letters a,b,c, d two at
a time are ab, ac, ad, bc, bd, cd.
Various approaches of probability
There are three different approaches of probability, they are:
1) Mathematical/Priori or classical approach:
If there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely
outcomes of a random experiment and m of them are favorable to an
event A. Then probability of happening of event A is denoted by P(A)
and is defined as
P(A) = favorable number of cases/total number of cases = m/n
Remarks:
i) Since m and n are non-negative integer, so P(A)  0 and m  n, so P(A)
 1. Hence probability of any event is always lying between 0  P(A)  1.

ii) P(A) is known as probability of success and is usually written as p

and P( A ) is known as probability of failure and is denoted by q.
Therefore P(A) + P( A ) =1 or p + q =1.
2) Statistical or empirical approach:

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Classical approach fails to determine probability when outcome of the
trails are not equally likely and when the number of trails are performed
in n repetitions of random experiment to solve it statistical or empirical
approach of probability is developed.
Suppose that an event A occurs ‘m’ times in ‘n’ repetitions of a random
experiment, in limiting case when n becomes sufficiently large, then
probability of happening event A is defined as
m
P(A) = lim n→
n

3) Modern or axiomatic approach to probability:

Let S be the sample space of random experiment and A be any event in
S, then P is probability function which is defined in S and the function
P(A) satisfying the following axioms.
i) P(A) is defined, real and non negative i.e. P(A)  0
ii) The total probability P(S) = 1
iii) If A1 , A2 ,......., An is any finite or infinite sequence of disjoint events of S
then
P( A1  A2 ,........, An ) = P( A1 ) + P( A2 ) + .........+ P( An )

The above axioms are known as axioms of positiveness, certainty and

additive respectively.
Examples:
1)A bag contains 7 white and 3 black balls what is the probability of
getting a white ball?
Solution: Total number of cases (n) = 7 + 3 = 10
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Favourable number of case of getting a white ball = 7
 Probability of drawing a white ball = 7/10 = 0.7
2) From a group of 3 doctors, 4 nurses and 5 helpers, a committee of 4
persons is selected at random. Find the probability that the committee
will consists of a) 2 doctors and 2 nurses b) 1 doctors, 1 nurse and 2
helpers c) 4 helpers
Solution: Total possible cases (n) = 3 + 4 + 5 =12 persons is
12C =12!/(12-4)! 4! = 495
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a) From 3 doctors and 4 nurses, 2 doctors and 2 nurses can be selected as

(m) = 3C .4C = 3.6 = 18 ways
2 2

 P( 2 doctors and 2 nurses) = m/n = 18/495 = 0.036

b)From 3 doctors, 4 nurses and 5 helpers, 1 doctor 1nurse and 2 helper
can be selected as (m) = 3C .4C .5C = 3.4.10 =120 ways
1 1 2

P (1 doctor, 1 nurse and 2 helper) = m/n = 120/495 = 0.242

c) From 5 helper, 4 helper can be selected as (m) = 5 C4 = 5 ways

P (5 helpers) = m/n = 5/495 = 0.0101

Laws of probability
1) The probability of impossible event is zero i.e, P(  ) = 0

2) The probability of complementary event A of A is given by: P( A ) = 1

– P (A)
3) Additive rule of probability:

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a) When the events are mutually exclusive: Let A and B be two mutually
exclusive events with respective probabilities P(A) and P(B) then
probability of occurrence of at least one event i.e. event A or B is given
by: P(A or B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
b) When the events are not mutually exclusive: Let A and B are not two
mutually exclusive events with respective probabilities P(A) and P(B)
then probability of occurrence of at least one event i.e. event A or B is
given by:
P(A or B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
Ex: 1) A box contains 30 blood samples numbered 1 to 30. One blood
sample is drawn at random; find the probability that number of blood
sample drawn will be multiple of 5 or 7?
Solution: let A be the event of getting the number of multiples of 5 (i.e.
5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30)
Number of multiple of 5 (m) = 6, total no. of blood sample (n) = 30
 P(A) = m/n = 6/30 = 0.2
Similarly B be event of getting multiple of 7 ( i.e. 7, 14, 21, 28) .
Therefore m = 4
P(B) = m/n = 4/30 = 0.13
Here A and B are two mutually exclusive events therefore the required
probability is given by
P(A or B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.2 + 0.13 = 0.33

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Ex.2) A box contains 30 blood samples numbered 1 to 30. One blood
sample is drawn at random. Find the probability that the number of
blood sample will be multiple of 5 or 10.
Solution: Let A be the event of getting the number of multiple of 5
i.e. P(A) = m/n =6/30 = 0.2
B be the event of getting the number of multiple of 10 (i.e. 10, 20, 30 ).
Therefore m = 3
P(B) = m/n = 3/30 = 0.1
Here 10, 20 and 30 are multiples of both 5 and 10. So probability of
occurrence of both A and B = P(A  B) = 3/30 = 0.1
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B) = 0.2 +0.1 -0.1 = 0.2

4) Multiplicative rule of probability:

a) When the events are independent: Let A and B be two independent
events with their respective probabilities P(A) and P(B) then their
simultaneous occurrences is given by
P(A and B) = P(A  B) =P(A).P(B)

b) When the events are dependent: Let A and B are two dependent
events, then probability of occurrence of one event A is affected by the
probability of occurrence of B and vice versa. This relationship is called
conditional probability.

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The conditional probability of A that B has already happened is denoted
by P(A/B) i.e. probability A given B is defined as
P( A  B)
P(A/B) = , P(B) > 0
P( B)

P( A  B)
Similarly P(B/A) = , P(A) > 0
P ( A)

Ex: A card is drawn from a deck and replaced, and then a second card is
drawn. Find the probability of getting i) a king and then a king ii) a king
and than a queen iii) a red card and than a black card
Solution: Since after first draw the card is replaced, and made second
draw so it is the case of independent events.
i) The probability of drawing king and then king
P(k1  k 2 ) = P(k1 ).P(k 2 ) = 4/52 . 4/52 = 1/169

ii) P(K  Q) = P(K).P(Q) = 4/52 . 4/52 = 1/169

iii) P(R  B) = P(R).P(B) =26/52 . 26/52 = ¼
Ex: A box contains 8 microscopes of which 3 are defective. Two
microscopes are drawn at random one after the other without
replacement. Find the probability that both the microscopes drawn are i)
defective ii) non defective.
i) Let A be the event of drawing defective microscope in first draw and
B be the event of drawing defective microscope in the second draw.
P(A) = 3/8 , P(B/A) = (3-1)/(8-1) = 2/7
Probability that both microscopes drawn are defective
P( A  B) = P( A).P( B / A) = 3/8.2/7 = 0.11
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ii) Let A be the event of drawing non-defective microscope in first draw
and B be the event of drawing non-defective microscope in the second
draw.
P(A) = 5/8, P(B/A) = (5-1)/(8-1) = 4/7
Probability that both microscopes drawn are non defective
P( A  B) = P( A).P( B / A) = 5/8 . 4/7 = 0.36

Ex: The probability that a male patients selected at random from the
current residence of a certain hospital is 0.6. The probability that the
patient will be a male who is in for surgery is 0.2. A patient randomly
selected from a current residence is found to be a male, what is the
probability that the patients is in the hospital for surgery?
Solution: Probability of selecting a male patients P(M) = 0.6
The probability of patient who is male and is in for surgery P(M  S) =
0.2
P(S/M) = ?
P(S/M) = P(M  S)/P(M) = 0.2/0.6 = 0.34
Ex: A speaks truth in 75% of the cases and B in 80% of the cases. In
what percentage of cases are they likely to contradict each other in
stating the same fact?
Solution: Let E1 be the event that A speaks the truth and E 2 be the event
that B speaks truth.
P( E1 ) = 75% = 3/4, P( E1 ) = 1 – 3/4 = 1/4

P( E 2 ) = 80% = 4/5, P( E 2 ) = 1- 4/5 = 1/5

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Let E be the event that A and B contradict each other, i.e. if one of them
speaks the truth the other does not speaks truth. Thus
E = ( E1  E 2 ) or ( E1  E 2 )

P(E) = P( E1  E 2 )  P( E1  E 2 )

= P( E1  E 2 ) + P( E1  E 2 )  ( E1  E 2 ) and ( E1  E 2 ) mutually
exclusive
 P(E) = P( E1 ) .P( E 2 ) + P( E1 ) . P( E 2 ) = 3/4 . 1/5 + 1/4 . 4/5 = 0.35

Independence:
An event A is said to be independent of another event B if the
occurrence or not occurrence of another event B does not affect the
probability of the happening of the event A. Symbolically
P(A  B) =P(A).P(B)
If the conditional probability of A given B is equal to the unconditional
probability of A, then A is said to be independent of B. Symbolically
P(A/B) = P(A)

Ex: The probability that a man will be alive 45 years is 0.3 and
probability that his wife will be alive 45 years is 0.4.Find the probability
that for 45 years i) both will be alive ii) only man will be alive iii) only
the women will alive iv) at least one of them will alive
Solution: Let A and B be two events which denote a man and his wife
will alive for 45 years. Then P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.4
i) Both will alive 45 years P(A  B) =P(A).P(B) = 0.3 x 0.4 = 0.12

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ii) Only man will alive 45 years P(A  B ) = P(A).P( B ) = 0.3(1 – 0.4) =
0.18
iii) Only the woman will alive 45 years P( A  B) = P( A ).P(B) = (1 –
0.3)0.4 = 0.28
iv)Probability at least one of them will alive 45 years is
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B)
= P(A) +P(B) – P(A).P(B) = 0.3 + 0.4 – 0.3x0.4 = 0.58
Alternately,
P(at least one will live 45 years) = 1 –{(1-P(A))(1-P(B)} = 1 –
{P( A ).P( B )} = 1 – 0.7x0.6 = 0.58
Marginal probability and Joint probability
Joint probability refers to the phenomenon containing two or more than
two events. Marginal probability refers to the probability of the simple
events; it is also called as simple probability. Let X and Y be two
discrete random variables, then the joint probability distribution function
P( xi , y j ) i = 1,2,.......,m j = 1,2,.......,n is called joint probability mass
function if it satisfies i) P( xi , y j )  0 ii)  P( xi , y j ) =1.
i j

Let P( xi , y j ) be the joint probability mass function of X and Y. Then

marginal probability function of X is defined as
Pi = P( X = xi ) =  P( xi , y j ) = P( xi , y1 ) + P( xi , y 2 ) + ........... + P( xi , y n )
j

Similarly, the marginal probability function of Y is defined as

m
Pj = P (Y = y j ) =  ( xi , y j ) = P ( x1, y j ) + P ( x 2 y j ) + ............ + P ( x m y j )
i =1

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Ex: The following contingency table represents the sex-wise knowledge
of dental carries among the 300 school children studying in a certain
school of Nepal. Using the information compute the marginal and joint
probability.
Knowledge on dental caries Total
yes No
Male 128 11 139
Female 153 8 161
Total 281 19 300

Solution: Computing joint probability

P(M and Y) = P(M  Y) =128/300 = 0.43, P(F  Y) = 153/300 = 0.51
P(M  N) = 11/300 = 0.04, P(F  N) = 8/300 = 0.02
Then marginal probability
P(M) = 139/300 = 0.47, P(F) = 161/300 = 0.52
P(Y) = 281/300 = 0.94, P(N) = 19/300 = 0.06
Bayes’s Theorem: Let E1 , E 2 ,.......,E n be mutually exclusive events of
sample space S with P( Ei )  0, i = 1,2,.....,n then for any arbitrary event A
which is subset of S such that P(A) > 0, we have
P ( E r ).P ( A / E r )
P ( E r / A) = n
,1  r  n
 P( E ).P( A / E )
i =1
i i

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Bayes’s theorem is one of the important applications of conditional
probability which gives the information about the occurrence of one
event to predict the probability of another event. This concept can be
extended to revise probabilities based on new information and to
determine the probability of particular effect was due to specific reason.
Prevalence and Incidence: Prevalence of a disease is the probability of
having disease. It is the number of people with the disease divided by
the number of people in the population. Incidence of a disease is the
probability that a person without the disease will develop the disease
during some specified interval of time. Prevalence provides an idea of
current magnitude of the disease problem, where as incidence informs as
to whether the disease problem is getting worse or not. Among them
probability is also used to find the sensitivity, specificity, predictive
value positive and negative as in the following example.
Ex: The table below summarizes the results of BCPF test of 1600
individuals.
Test Disease
result
Present(D) Absent( D ) Total
positive
(T) 76 224 300

negative 4 1296 1300

(T )
Total 80 1520 1600

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Find sensitivity, specificity, predictive value positive and predictive
value negative
Sensitivity: probability of positive test results given that patients have
disease is given by
76 / 1600
P(T/D) = P(T  D)/P(D) = = 0.94
80 / 1600

Specificity: Probability of negative test results given that patients have

no disease is
1296 / 1600
P( T / D ) = P( T  D )/P( D ) = = 0.84
1520 / 1600

Predictive value positive: Probability that patients have disease given a

positive test result is
P( D).P(T / D) 0.05 x0.94
P(D/T) = = = 0.25
P( D).P(T / D) + P( D ).P(T / D ) 0.05 x0.94 + 0.14 x0.94

Predictive value negative: Probability that the patients have no disease

given a negative test result
P ( D ).P (T / D )
P( T / D ) = =
P ( D ).P (T / D ) + P ( D ).P (T / D )

More examples on Bayes theorem:

A patients goes to see a doctor, the doctor perform a test with 99%
reliability that, 99% of the people who are sick test positive and 99% of
the healthy people test negative. The doctor knows that 1% of the people
in the country are sick. Now the question is that if the patient test
positive what are the probability the patient is really sick? The intuitive
answer is 99%, but correct answer is 50%.
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The solution to this question can easily be calculated using Bayes's
theorem. Bayes, who lived from 1702 to 1761 stated that the probability
you test positive AND are sick is the product of the likelihood that you
test positive GIVEN that you are sick and the "prior" probability that
you are sick (the prevalence in the population). Bayes's theorem allows
one to compute a conditional probability based on the available
information.

Bayes's Theorem

Above explanation can be summarized with the help of the following

table which illustrates the scenario in a hypothetical population of
10,000 people:

Diseased Not Diseased

Test + 99 99 198
Test - 1 9,801 9,802
100 9,900 10,000

What we want to know is P (A | B), i.e., the probability of disease (A),

given that the patient has a positive test (B). We know that prevalence of
disease (the unconditional probability of disease) is 1% or 0.01; this is
represented by P(A). Therefore, in a population of 10,000 there will be
100 diseased people and 9,900 non-diseased people. We also know the
sensitivity of the test is 99%, i.e., P(B | A) = 0.99; therefore, among the
100 diseased people, 99 will test positive. We also know that the
specificity is also 99%, or that there is a 1% error rate in non-diseased
people. Therefore, among the 9,900 non-diseased people, 99 will have a
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positive test. And from these numbers, it follows that the unconditional
probability of a positive test is 198/10,000 = 0.0198; this is P(B).

Thus, P(A | B) = (0.99 x 0.01) / 0.0198 = 0.50 = 50%.

From the table above, we can also see that given a positive test (subjects
in the Test + row), the probability of disease is 99/198 = 0.05 = 50%.

Another Example:

Suppose a patient exhibits symptoms that make her physician concerned

that she may have a particular disease. The disease is relatively rare in
this population, with a prevalence of 0.2% (meaning it affects 2 out of
every 1,000 persons). The physician recommends a screening test that
costs $250 and requires a blood sample. Before agreeing to the screening
test, the patient wants to know what will be learned from the test,
specifically she wants to know the probability of disease, given a
positive test result, i.e., P(Disease | Screen Positive).

The physician reports that the screening test is widely used and has a
reported sensitivity of 85%. In addition, the test comes back positive 8%
of the time and negative 92% of the time.

The information that is available is as follows:

• P(Disease)=0.002, i.e., prevalence = 0.002

• P(Screen Positive | Disease)=0.85, i.e., the probability of screening
positive, given the presence of disease is 85% (the sensitivity of
the test), and
• P(Screen Positive)=0.08, i.e., the probability of screening positive
overall is 8% or 0.08. We can now substitute the values into the
above equation to compute the desired probability,

Based on the available information, we could piece this together using a

hypothetical population of 100,000 people. Given the available
information this test would produce the results summarized in the table
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below. Point your mouse at the numbers in the table in order to get an
explanation of how they were calculated.

Diseased Not Diseased

Test + 170 7,830 8,000
Test - 30 91,970 92,000
200 99,800 100,000

The answer to the patient's question also could be computed from

Bayes's Theorem

We know that P(Disease)=0.002, P(Screen Positive | Disease)=0.85 and

P(Screen Positive)=0.08. We can now substitute the values into the
above equation to compute the desired probability,
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P(Disease | Screen Positive) = (0.85)(0.002)/(0.08) = 0.021.

If the patient undergoes the test and it comes back positive, there is a
2.1% chance that he has the disease. Also, note, however, that without
the test, there is a 0.2% chance that he has the disease (the prevalence in
the population). In view of this, do you think the patient have the
screening test?

Another important question that the patient might ask is, what is the
chance of a false positive result? Specifically, what is P(Screen Positive|
No Disease)? We can compute this conditional probability with the
available information using Bayes Theorem.

P(Screen Positive | No Disease) = (1-0.021)(0.08)/(1-0.002) = 0.078.

Thus, using Bayes Theorem, there is a 7.8% probability that the

screening test will be positive in patients free of disease, which is the
false positive fraction of the test.

Exercise:
1. There are 3 public health officer, 4 doctors, 2 nurses and 1 lab
technician. A committee of 4 among them is to be formed. Find the
probability that the committee i) consists of one of each kind ii) consists
of 2 doctors, 1 nurse and 1 lab technician.
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2. The probability that male doctor selecting in a job as medical officer
is 0.57 and that of female doctor is 0.43. What is the probability that at
least one of them will be selected?
3. A subcommittee of 6 members is formed out of 7 doctors and 4 public
health officers. Calculate the probability that the subcommittee will
consists of i) exactly one public health specialist ii) at most one public
health specialist iii) at least 5 doctors.
3. In a class of 32 students, it was found that 20 students secure grade A,
8 students secure grade B, and 4 students secure grade C in the previous
exam. What is the probability of selecting a student who has i) either
grade A or B ii) either grade B or C?
4. In a group of 15 persons, 8 suffers from fever, 10 suffers from cough
and 6 suffers from both. A person is selected at random, what is the
probability that he suffers from fever or cough.
5. Suppose that 3% of the people in the population of the adults having
attempted suicide. It is also known that 20% of the populations are living
below poverty level. If these two events are independent what is the
probability that a person selected at random from the population will
have attempted suicide and be living below the poverty level?
6. The probability that a man will be alive 25 year hence is 0.3 and the
probability that his wife will be alive 25 years hence is 0.4. Find the
probability that 25 years hence i) both will be alive ii) only the man will
be alive iii) at least one of them alive. (Ans: 0.12, 0.18 and 0.58)
7. A problem of biostatistics is given to three students. A, B and C
whose chances of solving it are 1/2, 1/3, and 1/4 respectively. Find the
probability that i) all of them can solve the problem ii) none of them can
solve the problem iii) problem will be solved. (1/24, 1/4 and 3/4)
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8. From group of 8 children, 5 boys and 3 girls; 3 children are selected at
random. Calculate the probabilities that the selected group will contains
i) no girls ii) only one girl iii) only one particular girl iv) at least one girl
v) more girls than boys. (Ans: 5/28, 15/28, 5/28, 23/28 and 2/7)
9. The probability that a person selected at random from a population
will exhibit the classic symptom of certain disease is 0.2, and the
probability that a person selected at random has the disease is 0.23. The
probability that a person who has the symptom also has the disease is
0.18. A person selected at random from the population does not have the
symptom: what is the probability that the person has the disease?
10. In a certain population women 4 percent have had the breast cancer,
20 percent are smokers and 3 percent are smokers and have had breast
cancer. A woman is selected at random from the population, what is the
probability that she has a breast cancer or smoker or both?
11. In a test of irregular heart beat it was found that probability of
irregular heart beat is 20%. The probability of positive result given that
regular heart beat is 0.3 and probability positive result given that the
irregular heart beat is 0.7. Find the probability of irregular heart beat
given that positive result.
12. Suppose the probability that a person has certain disease is 0.03.
Medical diagnostic test are available to determine whether the person
actually has disease. If the disease is actually present the probability that
the medical diagnostic test will give positive result is 0.09. If the disease
is not actually present the probability of positive test result is 0.02.
Suppose the medical diagnostic test has given a positive result. What is
the probability that the disease is actually present?

21
13. Suppose that a person visits his dentist, the probability that he will
have his teeth cleaned is 0.44, the probability that he will have cavity
filled is 0.24, the probability that he will have tooth extracted is 0.21, the
probability that he will have a teeth cleaned and cavity filled is 0.08, the
probability that he will have his teeth cleaned and tooth extracted is
0.11, the probability that he will have his cavity filled and tooth
extracted is 0.07 and the probability that he will have his teeth cleaned,
cavity filled and tooth extracted is 0.03. What is the probability that a
person visiting his dentist will have at least one of the things done to
him?
14. Suppose there were a test for cancer with the property of 90% of
these with cancer reacted positively where as 5% of these without cancer
react positively. Assume that 1% of patients in a hospital have a cancer.
What is the probability that a patient selected at random who reacts
positively to this test actually has a cancer?
15. The human resource department of a company has records which
show the following analysis of 200 pharmacists.
Age Bachelor’s Master’s
degree degree
Under 30 90 10
30 – 40 20 30
Over 40 40 10

If one of the pharmacist is selected at random from the company, find

the probability that i) he has only a bachelor’s degree ii) he is master
degree given that he is over 40.
22
16. Following data represents the age and marital status of 140 people.
Age Single Married
Under 35 77 14
35 and more 28 21

If one person is selected at random find the probability that i) he is

single and under age 35 ii) he is under 35 given that he is single.
17. The probability that a boy will be HIV positive in ELSA test is 0.75
and that a girl will be HIV positive is 0.72. What is the probability that i)
both will be HIV positive ii) at least one of them will be HIV positive?
18. In a certain population of hospital patients, the probability is 0.35
that a randomly selected patient will have heart disease. The probability
is 0.86 that the patients with heart disease are smokers. What is the
probability that a patient randomly selected from population will be
smoker and have a heart disease?
19. A medical representative carries two medicines Ciprofloxacin and
Flexon. He estimates that when he makes a call, 35% of time he sells
Ciprofloxacin and 50% of time, he sells Flexon. He knows that she sale
of two medicines are independent. i) what is the probability that he will
sell both medicines on the same call? ii) what is probability that he will
sell either Ciprofloxacin or Flexon but not both?
Random Variables and probability distribution
Consider a random experiment of tossing a coin 2 times. Let X be a real
value function of getting head.

23
Outcome w: HH HT TH TT
Value of X: 2 1 1 0
Here 2 mean that X associates with 2 heads, 1 means X associates with 1
head and 0 means X associates with 0 head.
Definition: A random variable (r.v) is a real valued function X(w)
defined on sample space S (domain) and range ( − ,  ) in random
experiment. Random variables are denoted by X,Y,Z and value of
random variables are denoted by x,y,z.
There are two types of random variables they are:
i) Discrete random variable: A random variable is said to be discrete if it
takes at most countable values i.e. fixed integer value. No. of patients
arrived in a hospital, no. of death, no. of accidents etc are examples of
discrete random variable.
Probability mass function: Let X be a one dimensional discrete random
variable which associates with countable infinite no. of values
x0 , x1 , x 2 ,.........and the probability of each xi is P(X= xi ) = P( xi ). If the

probability P( xi ), i = 0,1,2...... must satisfy the following conditions


i) P ( xi )  0, for i = 0, 1, 2, ........ and ii)  P( xi ) = 1
i =0

Then the function P( xi ) or simply P is called probability mass function

of the discrete r.v. X and the set of pair ( xi P( xi )) is called probability
distribution of the r.v X.
ii) Continuous random variable: A random variable X is said to be
continuous if it can take all possible value between certain limits. Data

24
relating to age, height, weight, blood pressure etc are examples of
continuous random variables.
Mathematical Expectation:
Mathematical expectation of a discrete random variable:
Let X be a discrete random variable which associates with value
x1 , x 2 ,.........., x n with respective probabilities P ( X = xi ) , i = 1,2,.........,n, then

its mathematical expectation is defined as

n
E(X) =  xi P( X
i =1
= xi ) =  xi pi , p i =1

Theorems on expectation:
i) E(X+Y+Z+............+T) = E(X) + E(Y) + E(Z) +...............+E(T)
ii) If X, Y, Z,..........T are independent random variables then
E(X.Y.Z..........T) = E(X). E(Y). E(Z).........E(T)
iii) Expectation of constant is constant itself. i.e. E(a) = a
iv) If a and b are constants, then the variance of a r.v a function h(x)
which is function of r.v X. i.e.
h(x) = aX + b
V(h(x)) = V(aX + b) = V(aX) + V(b) = a 2V ( X )  V(constant) =0

Variance of a random Variable:

Let X be a random variable with mean E(X) = , then variance of a
random variable is given by
V(X) = EE( X ) − E( X )2 = E( X 2 ) − E( X )2

25
Covariance: The measure of the simultaneous variation between the
random variables X and Y is denoted by Cov(X,Y) and is defined as:
Cov(X,Y) = E{{X-E(X)}{Y – E(Y)}}
= E{XY –XE(Y) – YE(X) +E(X).E(Y)} = E(XY) –E(X)E(Y)
– E(Y)E(X) + E(X)E(Y)
 Cov(X,Y) = E(XY) – E(X)E(Y)
If X and Y are independent then Cov(X,Y) = 0

Expectation of continuous random variable:

Let X be a continuous random variable with p.d.f f(x) then mathematical
expectation is defined as

E(X) =  xf ( x)dx
−

Ex: A random variable X has the following probability function.

Value of -2 -1 0 1 2 3
X: x
P(x) 0.1 k 0.2 2k 0.3 k
Find the mean and variance of the distribution.
Solution:

 P( x ) = 1 ,
i  0.1+k+0.2+2k+0.3+k =1 k = 0.1
n
Mean = E(X) =  xi P( xi ) = (-2)(0.1)+(-1)(0.1)+0+1(0.2)+2(0.3)+3(0.1) =
i =1

0.8
26
 n 2

E ( X ) =  xi P ( xi ) =
2
4x0.1+1x0.1+0+1x0.2+2x0.3+9x0.1 = 2.8
i =1

V(X) = E ( X 2 ) − ( E ( X )) 2 = 2.8 − (0.8) 2 = 2.16

Exercise:
1. Calculate the mean and variance for the following probability
distribution.
a) X: 10 20 30 40 50
P(X): 0.12 0.32 0.26 0.18 0.12
b) X: -1 0 1 2
P(X): 1/3 1/6 1/6 1/3
2. Suppose X is a random variable having the p.m.f p(x) is given by:
X:x -3 -1 0 1 2 3 5 8
P(x) 0.1 0.2 0.15 0.2 0.1 0.15 0.05 0.05
Find the mean and variance.
3. A probability distribution is given by:
X: 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x): 0.26 0.25 0.11 0.02 0.25 0.11
Find i) P(4) ii) P(0<X< 4) iii) P(X =4  X=5) (independent cases) iv)
find mean and variance.

27
4. The following table represents the probability distribution of the
number visits to the doctor by an insured individual during a period of
one year.
No. of visits : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability: k 0.15 2k 3k k 0.07 0.08
Find the value of k and mean and variance.
5. A random variable X has the following probability function:
X: 0 1 2 3
P(x): 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Find the probability function of Y and mean of Y where Y = x2 +1

6. DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Binomial Distribution

Binomial Experiment: A binomial experiment (also known as

a Bernoulli trial) is a statistical experiment that has the following
properties:

▪ The experiment consists of n repeated trials.

▪ Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of
these outcomes a success and the other, a failure.
▪ The probability of success, denoted by P, is the same on every
trial.
▪ The trials are independent; i.e., the outcome on one trial does not
affect the outcome on others.

28
Definition: A discrete random variable X is said to follow binomial
distribution if its probability mass function is given by
n!
P(X=x) = nC p x q n− x = p x q n− x , x = 0,1,2………n
x
(n − x)! x!

= 0 otherwise

Where n and p are also called parameter of the distribution. P =

probability of successes, q = probability of failure and x = number of
successes in trail.

Mean E(X) = np, Variance = npq

Eg: In a certain developing country 30% children are undernourished.
From a random sample of 6 children in this area, find the probability that
number of undernourished are i) exactly two ii) More than 2 iii)at least 2
iv) at most 2. Also find the mean and standard deviation of binomial
distribution. If there are 50 groups of children, in how many groups
more than 2 children are undernourished?
Solution:
Probability of undernourished (p) = 30% = 0.3, sample size (n) = 6, q =
1-p = 0.7. The distribution follows binomial so,
i) P(x=2) = nC x p x q n − x = 6 C2 (0.3) 2 (0.7) 6−2 = 0.3241

ii) P(x>2) = P(x=3) + P(x=4) + P(x=5) + P(x=6)

= 6C 3
(0.3) 3 (0.7) 6−3 + 6 C4 (0.3) 4 (0.7) 6−4 + 6 C5 (0.3) 5 (0.7) 6−5 + 6 C6 (0.3) 6 (0.7) 6−6

= 0.1852 + 0.0595 + 0.010 + 0.0007 = 0.2554

iii) P(x  2 ) = P(x=2) + P(x=3) + P(x=4) + P(x=5) + P(x=6) = 0.3241 +
0.2554 = 0.57975
29
Alternately,
P(x  2 ) = 1- P(x<2) = 1 - {P(x=0) + P(x=1)}
iv) P(x  2) = P(x=0) + P(x=1) + P(x=2)
= 6 C0 (0.3) 0 (0.7) 6−0 + 6 C1 (0.3)1 (0.7) 6−1 + 6 C2 (0.3) 2 (0.7) 6−2 = 0.7442

Mean of the distribution (  ) = np = 6x0.3 = 1.8

Variance(  2 ) = npq = 6x0.3x0.7 = 1.26,  = npq = 1.12

If there are 50 group of children, then more than 2 children are

undernourished are
N.P(x>2) = 50x0.255 = 12.77 = 13
Approximately 13 group of children have more than 2 children
undernourished.
Eg: A recent study by the traffic police revealed that 60% of the car
drivers wearing seat belts. A sample of 10 drivers on new road is
selected as pilot survey, find the probability that i) exactly 7 are wearing
seat belt ii) 7 or fewer of the drivers are wearing seat belt?
Solution: The situation the meets the requirements of binomial
distribution.
Sample size (n) = 10, probability of wearing seat belt (p) = 60% = 0.6, q
= 0.4
In binomial distribution probability of getting x successes out of n trails
is P(x) = nC p x q n− x
x

i) P(x =7) = 10 C 7
(0.6) 7 (0.4)10 −7 = 120 x 0.02799 = 0.215

30
ii) P(x  7) = 1 - {P(x>7)} = 1 - {P(x=8) + P(x=9)+P(x=10)}
= 1 - {0.120 + 0.040 + 0.006} = 0.833
Eg: A multiple test has 5 questions. There are 4 choices for each
question. A student who has not studied for test decided to answer all the
questions randomly. What is the probability that he will get i) five
questions correct ii) at least 4 questions correct?
Solution: n = 5, probability of getting correct answer (p) = 1/4 = 0.25 ,
q = 0.75
i)P(x=5) = 5C5 (0.25) 5 (0.75) 5−5 = 1 x 0.00097 x1 = 0.00097

ii) P(x  4) = P(x=4) + P(x=5) = 5C4 (0.25) 4 (0.75) 5−4 + 5C5 (0.25) 5 (0.75) 5−5 =

0.01562
Exercise:
1. A production manager knows that 5% of components produced by a
particular manufacturing process is defective. Six of these components,
whose characteristics can be assumed to be independent of each are
examined, what is the probability that i) none of these components has a
defect ii) at least two of these components have a defect? (Ans: 0.735,
0.03277)
2) It is known from experience that 80% of the patients survive a
particular heart surgery. In a year 18 patients were operated upon. What
is the probability that i) 15 patients will survive ii) at least 15 patients
will survive? (Ans: 0.23, 0.501)
3) In a four ICDS projects 20% of children under age 6 years were found
to be malnourished. If 4 children are selected at random, what is the

31
probability that i) no children are malnourished ii) at least 2 children are
malnourished.
4) The incidence of occupational disease in an industry is such that the
workers have 20% chance of suffering from it, what is the probability
that out of 6 workmen 4 or more will contact the disease?
5) Suppose that 30% of certain population is immune to some disease. If
a random sample of size 10 is selected from this population, what is the
probability that it will contain exactly 4 immune persons? (Ans:0.2001)
6) A National Center for Health Statistics report based on 1985 data
states that 30% of American adults smoke. From the data 15 adults are
selected at random, find the probability that the number of smokers in
the sample would be i) less than five ii) between five and nine inclusive
iii) more than five, but less than ten iv) six or more
7) The probability that a person suffering from migraine headache will
obtain relief with a particular drug is 0.9.Three randomly selected
sufferers from the migraine headache are given the drug. Find the
probability that the number obtaining relief will be i) exactly one ii)
more than one iii) at most two iv) two or three? (Ans: 0.27, 0.972, 0.271,
0.982)
8) Medical records show that one out of 10 persons in a certain town has
thyroid deficiency. If 12 persons in this town are randomly selected and
tested, what is the probability that at least one of them have a thyroid
deficiency?
Poisson Distribution

Poisson distribution is considered as the limiting case of binomial

distribution under the following conditions.
32
-The number of trails (n) is indefinitely large. i.e. n → 

-The probability of successes (p) is indefinitely small. i.e p → 0

-The product n and p is finite (say  ).

Definition: A random variable X is said to follow Poisson distribution if

its probability mass function is given by
e − x
P(X=x) = , x = 0,1,2,3………∞
x!

= 0, otherwise.
Where  = mean, x = number of successes, e = 2.71828 is the base of
natural logarithm. Variance = 
Eg: It is known from the past experience that in a certain plant there are
4 industrial accidents per year. Find the probability that in given year,
there will be i) less than 4 accidents ii) at least 4 accidents iii) exactly 2
accidents iv) no accidents. If there are 200 workers in industry, how
many of them will have exactly 2 industrial accidents?
Solution: Mean (  ) = 4, Lest x be the no. of accidents per year in the
plant, its probability is given as
P(x) = e −   x / x!

i) P(x< 4) = P(x=0) + P(x=1) + P(x=2) + P(x=3)

=
= e −4 4 0 / 0!+e −4 41 / 1!+e −4 4 2 / 2!+e −4 4 3 / 3!

= e −4 (1/1 +4/1 +16/2 + 64/6)

= 0.0183 x 23.67 = 0.4332
ii) P(x  4) = 1 – P(x < 4)
33
 = 1 – 0.4332 = 0.5668
iii) P(x = 2) = e −4 4 2 / 2! = 0.1464
iv) P(x = 0) = e −4 4 0 / 0! = 0.183
When N =200,
The number of workers with 2 industrial accidents = N. P(x = 2) = 200 x
0.1464 = 29.28
Required no. of workers is approximately = 29.
1) Assume that the chance of an individual coal miner being killed in
mine accidents during a year is 1/1400. Calculate the probability that in
a mine employing 350 miners there will be at least one fatal accident in
a year.
2) A hospital switch board receives an average of 3 emergency calls per
minute. What is the probability of receiving more than 2 calls?
3) Suppose the number of people seen for violent asthama attacks in the
emergency ward of a hospital over a one day period is usually Poisson
distributed with parameter lamda = 1.5. What is the probability of
observing 5 or more cases in any specific day?
4) In a certain population on average 13 new cases of esophageal cancer
are diagnosed each year. If the annual incidence of esophageal cancer
follows a Poisson distribution, find the probability that in a given year
the number of newly diagnosed cases of esophageal cancer will be at
least three.
5) Past experience shows that an average number of 6 patients per day
arrive at the health post at the case of diarrhea. What is the probability
that i) 3 patient with diarrhea arriving any day ii) 3 or less cases of
34
diarrhea arriving in a given day iii) What is the expected value and
standard deviation of the distribution?
6) Suppose that over a period of several years the average no. of deaths
from certain noncontiguous disease has been 10. If the no. of deaths
from this disease follows the Poisson distribution, what is the probability
that during the current year seven people will die from the disease?
7) Assuming that one in 100 births is a case of twins appears and in a
certain town on a day when 40 births occurs. What is the probability that
two or more sets of twins will born in that day?
(Hints: p=1/100 = 0.01,  = np = 40 x 0.01 then P(x  2) =?
8) In a certain desert the no. of persons who become seriously ill in each
year from eating a certain poisonous plant is a random variable follows
Poisson distribution, with  =5.2. Find the probability of such 3 illness in
a given year.
9) In the study of certain aquatic organism, a large number of samples
were taken from a pond, and the number of organisms in each sample
was counted. The average number of organisms per sample was found to
be two. Assuming that the number of organisms follows a Poisson
distribution, find the probability that the next sample will contain one or
fewer organisms.
10) The mean number of serious accidents per year in a large factory
(where the no. of employees remain constant) is five, find the probability
that in the current year there will be i) no accidents ii) at most five
accidents iii) at least 3 accidents.

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION:

35
The Normal Distribution

A continuous random variable X follows a normal distribution if it has

the following probability density function (p.d.f.):

, −∞<x<∞

= 0 otherwise

Mean = μ, and variance = 2

Formula for the Standardized Normal Distribution

X~ N(μ ,  2 ), then introduce a new variate Z, whose mean (μ)=0 and

variance  2 =1,then
X −
z= Z~ N(0,1)


Here Z is called standard normal variate.

Percentages of the Area under the Standard Normal

Curve

A graph of this standardized (mean 0 and variance 1) normal curve is

shown.

36
In this graph, we have indicated the areas between the regions as
follows:

-1 ≤ Z ≤ 1= 68.27%

-2 ≤ Z ≤ 2 =95.45%

-3 ≤ Z ≤ 3= 99.73%

This means that 68.27% of the scores lie within 1 standard deviation of
the mean, comes from
1 − z2 / 2
1

−1 2
e dz =0.68269 and so on for other. The total area
from −∞<z<∞ is 1.

Characteristics of normal Curve:

*The curve is bell shaped and symmetrical about mean μ.

*The distribution is unimodel since the normal curve has only one peak.

*The value of the mean, median and mode are same (i.e. mean = median
= mode).

37
* The two tails of the normal distribution extended indefinitely and
never touch the horizontal axis. This property is called the asymptotic
property of the curve.

The z-Table

The areas under the curve bounded by the ordinates z = 0 and any
positive value of z are found in the z-Table. From this table the area
under the standard normal curve between any two ordinates can be
found by using the symmetry of the curve about z = 0.

Eg: Let X be normal variate with mean 15 and variance 16. Find out the
probability of the following. i) X  12) ii) X  17 iii) 0  X  20 iv) Find
a when P(X>a) = 0.36
Solution: We have = 15,  = 16 = 4,

i)when X =12, then

X −
Z= = (12 -15)/4 = -0.75


P(Z  -0.75) = 0.5 – P(-0.75  Z  0)

= 0.5 – P(0  Z  0.75)  symmetricity of normal curve
= 0.5 – 0.2734 (from normal table)
= 0.2266
ii) When X=17, then
Z = (17-15)/4 = 0.5
P(Z  0.5) = 0.5 – P(0  Z  0.5)

38
 = 0.5 – 0.1915 (from normal curve)
= 0.3085
iii) P(0  X  20) =?
When X=0, then
Z = (0 – 15)/4 = -3.75
When X = 20, then Z = (20 -15)/4 = 1.25
P(-3.750  Z  1.25) = P(-3.75  Z  0) + P(0  Z  1.25)
== P(0  Z  3.75) + P(0  Z  1.25)  symmetricity of
normal curve
= 0.499 + 0.394 = 0.893
iv) P(X>a) = 0.36
when X =a, then
Z = (a -15)/4
P(Z > (a-15)/4) = 0.36
Or, 0.5 – P(0 < Z < (a-15)/4) =0.36
Or, P(0 < Z < (a-15)/4) =0.1400
Z = 0.35 (from normal table)
i.e. (a-15)/4 = 0.35
 a= 16.4
Eg: The weight of certain population of individuals is assumed to follow
normal distribution with mean 140 pounds and standard deviation of 25
39
pounds i) what is the probability that a person picked at random from
this group will weigh between 100 and 170 pounds ii) out of 10,000
persons how many would weight more than 200 pounds?
Solution:  = 140 pounds ,  = 25 pounds

i)100  X  170
When X =100, then
Z = (X -  )/  = (100-140)/25 = -1.6

When X=170
Z = (170-140)/25 = 1.2
P(-1.6  Z  1.2) = P(-1.6  Z  0) +P(0  Z  1.2) = 0.4452+0.3849 = 0.8301
ii) X = 200
Z = (200 – 140)/25 = 2.4
P(Z  2.4) = 0.5 – P(0  Z  2.4) = 0.5 – 0.4918 From normal table
= 0.0082
No. of persons weight more than 200 pounds = 10,000 x 0.0082 = 82
persons.
EXERCISE :
1) In an experiment 15% of candidate got first class (60 or more) while
40% failed (less than 40) marks. Assuming the marks are normally
distributed estimate the mean and s.d.
2) A diastolic blood pressure for a group of women aged 25b to 34 years
are normally distributed with a mean of 82 mmHg and standard
40
deviation 3 mmHg. If a person is selected at random from this age group
of women, what is the probability that her blood pressure i) lies between
77.5 to 85 mmHg ii) is less than 86.5?
3) A hospital records the weight of every new born child at the hospital.
The distribution of weight is normally distributed and has the mean of
2.9 kg and standard deviation 0.45. i) Find the percentage of new born
babies whose weight is between 1.8 kg and 4.0 kg. ii) If 1500 babies
have been born at the hospital, how many of them have a weight less
than 2.5 kg.
4) Suppose the ages at time of onset of certain disease are approximately
normally distributed with mean of 11.5 years and standard deviation of 3
years. A child has just come down with the disease. Find the probability
that the child is i) over 10 years of age ii) between 8 to 14 years of age.
5) The weights of new born babies at a particular hospital have been
observed to be normally distributed with a mean of 7.4 pounds and
standard deviation of 0.4 pounds. What is the probability that a baby
born in this hospital will weight i) More than 8 pounds ii) less than 7
pounds?
6) The weight of the tablet of certain drug approximately follows normal
distribution with mean 200 mg and standard deviation of 10 mg. If a
tablet is selected at random find the probability that the weight of the
tablet i) 185 and 200mg ii) less than 180 mg iii) more than 220mg/
7) Suppose it is known that the heights of a certain population of
individuals are approximately normally distributed with a mean of 70
inches and a standard deviation of 3 inches. What is the probability that
a person picked at random from the group will be between 65 and 74
inches?
41
8) If the capacities of the cranial cavities of a certain population are
approximately normally distributed with a mean of 1400cc and standard
deviation of 125, find the probability that a person randomly picked
from this population will have a cranial cavity capacity i) Greater than
1450cc ii) Less than 1350cc iii) Between 1300 and 1500 cc. (Ans:
0.344, 0.344, 0.576
9) Suppose the average length of stay in a chronic disease hospital of a
certain type of patient is 60 days with s.d. of 15. If it is reasonable to
assume an approximately normal distribution of lengths of stay, find the
probability that a randomly selected patient from this group will have a
length of stay: i) Greater than 50 days ii) less than 30 days iii) Between
30 and 60 days.
10) If the total cholesterol values for a certain population are
approximately normally distributed with a mean of 200mg/100ml and a
standard deviation 20mg/100ml. Find the probability that an individual
picked at random from this population will have a cholesterol value i)
between 180 and 200mg/100ml ii) Greater than 225mg/100ml iii) less
than 150mg/100ml (Ans: 0.341, 0.016, 0.771)
11) The weights of a certain population of young adult females are
approximately normally distributed with a mean of 132 pounds and a
standard deviation of 15. Find the probability that a woman selected at
random from this population will weight i) more than 155 pounds ii) 100
pounds or less iii) Between 105 and 145 pounds. (Ans: 0.065, 0.016,
0.771)

42
43