# Development of IDF Curves for Dataset 10

## 1. Introduction

### Background

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are graphical representations of the relationship between

rainfall intensity, storm duration, and return period. These curves are essential tools in hydrological
engineering for the design of drainage systems, culverts, bridges, and other hydraulic structures. This
report presents the development of IDF curves for Dataset 10 using the Gumbel's extreme value
distribution method.

### Aim and Objectives

The aim of this study is to develop IDF curves for the given rainfall data and determine design rainfall
for specific return periods. The specific objectives are:

- To analyze the maximum rainfall data using frequency analysis

- To construct IDF curves using Gumbel's distribution

- To determine design rainfall for a 33-year return period with a 30-minute time of concentration

## 2. Methodology

### 2.1 Data Source

The analysis utilizes Dataset 10, which contains maximum rainfall data (in mm) for different
durations (5 min, 10 min, 20 min, 30 min, 40 min, 60 min, 120 min, and 240 min) observed over a 24-
year period from 1984 to 2007.

### 2.2 Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel's Distribution

Gumbel's extreme value distribution was applied to develop the IDF curves. The procedure involves:

1. Calculating the mean (Xm) and standard deviation (S) of the annual maximum rainfall data for
each duration.

2. Computing the reduced variate (YT) for each return period (T) using the equation:

YT = -ln[-ln(1-1/T)]

3. Determining the frequency factor (KT) for each return period using:

KT = (YT - Yn)/Sn
 Where Yn and Sn are the mean and standard deviation of the reduced variate, depending on the
sample size.

4. Calculating the rainfall depth (XT) for each return period and duration using:

XT = Xm + KT × S

5. Converting rainfall depths to rainfall intensities (I) in mm/hr by:

I = XT × (60/duration in minutes)

6. Plotting the IDF curves on logarithmic scales.

## 3. Analysis and Results

### 3.1 Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Data

#### Table 1: Descriptive Statistics of Annual Maximum Rainfall (Dataset 10)

| Duration | Mean (Xm) | Standard Deviation (S) |

|----------|-----------|------------------------|

| 5 min | 3.18 | 2.22 |

| 10 min | 4.94 | 3.43 |

| 20 min | 7.55 | 5.07 |

| 30 min | 8.65 | 5.57 |

| 40 min | 9.38 | 5.75 |

| 60 min | 11.16 | 5.93 |

| 120 min | 15.37 | 7.63 |

| 240 min | 17.23 | 8.49 |

### 3.2 Frequency Analysis Results

For a sample size of 24 years, the Gumbel's distribution parameters are:

- Yn = 0.5296 (mean of reduced variate)

- Sn = 1.0864 (standard deviation of reduced variate)

#### Table 2: Frequency Factors (KT) for Different Return Periods

| Return Period (T) | Reduced Variate (YT) | Frequency Factor (KT) |

|-------------------|----------------------|-----------------------|

| 2.5 years | 0.6717 | 0.1308 |

| 10 years | 2.2504 | 1.5841 |

| 25 years | 3.1985 | 2.4564 |

| 40 years | 3.6714 | 2.8922 |

| 80 years | 4.4708 | 3.6270 |

| 100 years | 4.6001 | 3.7463 |

#### Table 3: Rainfall Depths (XT) in mm for Different Return Periods and Durations

| Duration | 2.5 years | 10 years | 25 years | 40 years | 80 years | 100 years |

|----------|-----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|-----------|

| 5 min | 3.47 | 6.72 | 8.67 | 9.61 | 11.21 | 11.52 |

| 10 min | 5.39 | 10.38 | 13.37 | 14.83 | 17.28 | 17.76 |

| 20 min | 8.21 | 15.59 | 20.02 | 22.19 | 25.83 | 26.54 |

| 30 min | 9.38 | 17.49 | 22.34 | 24.74 | 28.85 | 29.64 |

| 40 min | 10.14 | 18.47 | 23.53 | 26.01 | 30.24 | 31.06 |

| 60 min | 11.94 | 20.55 | 25.73 | 28.32 | 32.66 | 33.52 |

| 120 min | 16.37 | 27.44 | 34.10 | 37.42 | 43.04 | 44.15 |

| 240 min | 18.34 | 30.67 | 38.09 | 41.79 | 47.98 | 49.20 |

#### Table 4: Rainfall Intensities (I) in mm/hr for Different Return Periods and Durations

| Duration | 2.5 years | 10 years | 25 years | 40 years | 80 years | 100 years |

|----------|-----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|-----------|

| 5 min | 41.64 | 80.64 | 104.04 | 115.32 | 134.52 | 138.24 |

| 10 min | 32.34 | 62.28 | 80.22 | 88.98 | 103.68 | 106.56 |

| 20 min | 24.63 | 46.77 | 60.06 | 66.57 | 77.49 | 79.62 |

| 30 min | 18.76 | 34.98 | 44.68 | 49.48 | 57.70 | 59.28 |

| 40 min | 15.21 | 27.71 | 35.30 | 39.02 | 45.36 | 46.59 |

| 60 min | 11.94 | 20.55 | 25.73 | 28.32 | 32.66 | 33.52 |

| 120 min | 8.19 | 13.72 | 17.05 | 18.71 | 21.52 | 22.08 |

| 240 min | 4.59 | 7.67 | 9.52 | 10.45 | 12.00 | 12.30 |

### 3.3 IDF Curves

The IDF curves were plotted with rainfall duration on the x-axis and rainfall intensity on the y-axis for
different return periods. The curves follow the characteristic hyperbolic shape, indicating that for a
given return period, intensity decreases with increasing duration.

## 4. Design Rainfall Calculation

To determine the design rainfall for a return period of 33 years with a 30-minute time of
concentration:

1. Calculate the reduced variate for T = 33 years:

YT = -ln[-ln(1-1/33)] = 3.4762

2. Calculate the frequency factor:

KT = (YT - Yn)/Sn = (3.4762 - 0.5296)/1.0864 = 2.7124

3. Calculate the rainfall depth for 30-minute duration:

XT = Xm + KT × S = 8.65 + 2.7124 × 5.57 = 23.75 mm

4. Calculate the rainfall intensity:

I = XT × (60/30) = 23.75 × 2 = 47.50 mm/hr

Therefore, the design rainfall intensity for a 33-year return period with a 30-minute duration is 47.50
mm/hr, which corresponds to a rainfall depth of 23.75 mm.

## 5. Conclusion and Recommendations

### 5.1 Conclusion

This study has successfully developed IDF curves for Dataset 10 using Gumbel's extreme value
distribution. The analysis provides valuable information for designing hydraulic structures with
different return periods. The results show that:

1. As expected, for any given duration, rainfall intensity increases with increasing return period.

2. For any given return period, rainfall intensity decreases with increasing duration.

3. The design rainfall for a 33-year return period with a 30-minute duration is 23.75 mm or 47.50
mm/hr.

### 5.2 Recommendations

Based on the analysis, the following recommendations are made:

1. The developed IDF curves should be used for designing drainage structures in the study area to
ensure adequate capacity for handling extreme rainfall events.

2. Regular updates to the IDF curves should be considered as more rainfall data becomes available,
as this will improve the accuracy of the frequency analysis.

3. Climate change considerations should be integrated into future IDF curve developments, as
changing climate patterns may affect rainfall characteristics.

4. Additional statistical distributions should be explored to determine the best fit for the local rainfall
data.

## 6. References

1. Chow, V.T., Maidment, D.R. and Mays, L.W. (1988). Applied Hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York.

2. Gumbel, E.J. (1958). Statistics of Extremes. Columbia University Press, New York.

3. Koutsoyiannis, D., Kozonis, D. and Manetas, A. (1998). A mathematical framework for studying
rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships. Journal of Hydrology, 206(1-2), pp.118-135.

4. Maidment, D.R. (1993). Handbook of Hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York.

5. Watt, W.E., Chow, K.C.A., Hogg, W.D. and Lathem, K.W. (1986). A 1-h urban design storm for
Canada. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 13(3), pp.293-300.