Scribd
Upload
11 views29 pages

Lecture 3 in Troduction To Probability

The document provides an introduction to probability in behavioral sciences, covering concepts such as complementary events, mutually exclusive events, and independent versus dependent events. It includes various examples and rules for calculating probabilities, including addition and multiplication rules. Additionally, it discusses conditional probability and provides practical applications through examples involving real-life scenarios.

Uploaded by

Wally T. Dela Cerna
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
11 views29 pages

Lecture 3 in Troduction To Probability

The document provides an introduction to probability in behavioral sciences, covering concepts such as complementary events, mutually exclusive events, and independent versus dependent events. It includes various examples and rules for calculating probabilities, including addition and multiplication rules. Additionally, it discusses conditional probability and provides practical applications through examples involving real-life scenarios.

Uploaded by

Wally T. Dela Cerna
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 29

Southern Luzon State University

Graduate School
Lucban, Quezon

PSY 202:

Statistics in Behavioral
Sciences
Lecture 3. Introduction to Probability
Rule for Complementary Events
Complementary Events Rule
Suppose 𝐸 is an event and 𝐸′ is its complementary. Then

𝑃 𝐸′ = 1 − 𝑃 𝐸 𝑜𝑟 𝑃 𝐸′ + 𝑃 𝐸 = 1
Example
1) If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the
1
world is , find the probability that a person does not live in an
5
industrialized country.
Addition Rules for Probability
Mutually Exclusive Events (Disjoint)

• Two events are mutually exclusive events (disjoint) if they cannot


occur at the same time.

Example
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are not,
when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than
Addition Rule 1
When two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive, that
probability that 𝐴 or 𝐵 will occur is

𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)
Addition Rule 2
If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are not mutually exclusive, that probability that 𝐴
or 𝐵 will occur is

𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Example
1) At a community swimming pool there are 2 managers, 8 lifeguards, 3
concession stand clerks, and 2 maintenance people. If a person is
selected at random, find the probability that the person is either a
lifeguard or a manager.
Example
1) A single card is drawn from a deck. Find the probability of
selecting the following.
a. A 4 or a diamond

b. A club or a diamond

c. A jack or a black card


Example
1) 0n New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while intoxicated
is 0.32, the probability of a person having a driving accident is 0.09, and
the probability of a person having a driving accident while intoxicated is
0.06. What is the probability of a person driving while intoxicated or
having a driving accident?
Example
1) At a used-book sale, 100 books are adult books and 160 are children’s
books. Of the adult books, 70 are nonfiction while 60 of the children’s
books are nonfiction. If a book is selected at random, find the
probability that it is
a. Fiction
b. Not a children’s nonfiction book
c. An adult book or a children’s nonfiction book
Multiplication Rule
Independent Events

• Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent events (disjoint) if the fact that
𝐴 occurs does not affect the probability of 𝐵 occurring.

Example
a. Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a second die and
getting a 3.
b. Drawing a card from a deck and getting a queen, replacing it, and
drawing a second card and getting a queen.
Dependent Events

When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome
or occurrence of the second event in such a way that the probability is
changed, the events are said to be dependent events
Example
a. Drawing a card from a deck, not replacing it, and then drawing a
second card.
b. Selecting a ball from an urn, not replacing it, and then selecting a
second ball.
c. Parking in a no-parking zone and getting a parking ticket
Multiplication Rule 1

When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃(𝐵)
Multiplication Rule 2

When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ⋅ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
Example
1) A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of
getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
Example
1) A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second card
is drawn. Find the probability of getting a queen and then an
ace.
Example
1) A card is drawn from a deck and did not replaced; then a
second card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a queen
and then an ace. In order
Example
1) An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is
selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is
selected and its color noted. Find the probability of each of these.
a. Selecting 2 blue balls

b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball

c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball


Example
1) An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is
selected and its color noted without replacement. A second ball is
selected and its color noted. Find the probability of each of these.
a. Selecting 2 blue balls

b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball in order

c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball in order


Example
1) A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say they suffer great stress at
least once a week. If three people are selected at random, find the
probability that all three will say that they suffer great stress at least
once a week.
Example
1) Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not replaced. Find the
probability of these events. Get
a. getting 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
c. Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order d. Getting 3 clubs
Example
1) World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents of a
city had homeowner’s insurance (H) with the company. Of these clients,
27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the company. If a resident
is selected at random, find the probability that the resident has both
homeowner’s and automobile insurance with World Wide Insurance
Compan
Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability

The probability that the second event 𝐵 occurs given that the first
event 𝐴 has occurred can be found by dividing the probability that both
events occurred by the probability that the first event has occurred.
The formula is
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐴)
Example

1. The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets a


parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot find a legal
parking space and has to park in the noparking zone is 0.20. On
Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a no-parking zone.
Find the probability that he will get a parking ticket
Example

A recent survey asked 100 people if they are buying product A. The results of the
survey are shown.
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
Find these probabilities.
a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.

b. The respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.

You might also like