EEEC10006: Probability Ming-Chun Lee

515000 Homework 2, Spring 2025

Due on Friday, Mar. 21, 2025, at 11:59 pm.

Problem 1 (10 points)

Answer the following question:
(a) Given n ,p 0, np , show that the PMF of binomial

distribution with parameters (n , p ) converges to the PMF of Poisson

distribution with parameter . (4 pts)

(b) You attend a large music festival with a total of 1000 participants
(including yourself, making it 1001 people in total). Assume that each
person's zodiac sign is uniformly distributed, and there are 12 possible
zodiac signs. What is the probability that exactly two other participants
share the same zodiac sign as you? Calculate this probability both exactly
and approximately using the Poisson PMF. (4 pts)
(c) Compare the exact result and approximate result from parts (b). Are the
exact and approximate values close? If they are not close, explain what
factors are responsible for the discrepancy in the approximation. (2 pts)

Problem 2
Let X be a random variable with PMF
2
x
, if x 4, 2, 0, 2, 4
p X (x ) c
0 , otherwise.

(a) Find c , E[X ] , Var(X ) . (6 pts)

(b) Compute Var(14 3X ) , E[X (3X 3)] . (4 pts)

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EEEC10006: Probability Ming-Chun Lee

Problem 3
A packet communication system consists of a buffer that stores packets from
some source, and a communication line that retrieves packets from the buffer and
transmits them to a receiver. The system operates in time-slot pairs. In the first
slot, the system stores a number of packets that are generated by the source
according to a Poisson PMF with parameter ; however, the maximum number
of packets that can be stored is a given integer b , and packets arriving to a full
buffer are discarded. In the second slot, the system transmits either all the stored
packets or c packets (whichever is less). Here, c is a given integer with
0 c b.

(a) Assuming that at the beginning of the first slot the buffer is empty, find
the PMF of the number of packets stored at the end of the first slot and
at the end of the second slot. (6 pts)
(b) What is the probability that some packets get discarded during the first
slot? (4 pts)

Problem 4
Suppose that two teams are playing a series of games, each of which is

independently won by team A with probability p and by team B with probability

1 p . The winner of the series is the first team to win i games.

(a) If i 4 , find the probability that a total of 7 games are played. (3 pts)

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(b) Based on part (a), show that the probability is maximized when p .
2

(2 pts)

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EEEC10006: Probability Ming-Chun Lee

(c) Find the expected number of games that are played when i 2 . (2 pts)

(d) Find the expected number of games that are played when i 3 . (2 pts)

(Hint: You don’t need to simplify the result in part (d))

Problem 5
Answer the following questions:

(a) If X is Poisson ( ) , compute E[Y ] , for Y 1 / (1 X ) . (3 pts)

(b) A random variable X has mean 2 and variance 7. Find E[X 2 ] . (2 pts)

(c) Let X Poisson(3/4) . Compute both sides of the Markov inequality,

E[X ]
P(X 2) . (3 pts)
2

(Hints: you should calculate E[X ] in detail)

(d) Let X be a random variable that takes values from 0 to 9 with equal

probability 1 / 10 . Find the PMF of the random variable

Y X mod(3) .(2 pts)

Problem 6
Paul is heavily addicted to mobile games. In these games, players can acquire
powerful weapons and characters through a gacha system, which boosts their in-
game combat capability. Each gacha pull is independent, with the probability of

obtaining the desired character in a single pull being q, and the probability of not

obtaining it being 1-q. Unfortunately, Paul is a financially struggling college

student and can only afford to make n pulls during this event’s banner. Let X be
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EEEC10006: Probability Ming-Chun Lee

the total number of desired characters in the n pulls. Given this limitation, please

answer the following questions.

(a) Find the PMF of X . (4 pts)
(b) Find the expected value of X . (1 pts)
(c) Find the variance of X . (1 pts)
(d) Now, consider q 0.01, n 20 . Try to find the exact expected value

and variance of X. (2 pts)

(e) After Paul has made 19 pulls without obtaining the desired character, he
claims the probability of getting the desired character will be much
higher than 1%. He reasons that he has already pulled out many
undesirable items, so the probability of obtaining the desired character
on the 20th pull is very high. Is he correct? Explain your reasoning.
(2 pts)

Problem 7

A sequence of characters is transmitted over a channel that introduces errors with

probability p.

(a) What is the PMF of N, the number of error-free characters between

erroneous characters? (2 pts)

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(b) What is E[N ] ? (Hint: 2
kx k 1
) (3 pts)
(1 x) k 0

(c) What is Var(N ) ? (3 pts)

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EEEC10006: Probability Ming-Chun Lee

(d) Suppose we want to be 99% sure that at least 1000 characters are received

correctly before a bad one occurs. What is the appropriate value of p?

(2 pts)

Problem 8
Let a and b be positive integers with a b , and let X be the uniform

discrete random variable that take on values in set {a, a 1, ..., b} with equal

probability. Let Y 3X .

(a) Find the expected value of Y . (5 pts)

(b) Find the variance of Y . (5 pts)

(Hint: express the variance as V ar (Y ) E[Y 2 ] E[Y ]2 , and you don’t need to

simplify)

Problem 9
For a Poisson RV, with parameter b, it takes values 0, 1,… with probability

b bk
pX (k ) P(X k) e .
k!

(a) Find the mean of RV X . (5 pts)

(b) Find the variance of RV X . (5 pts)

(Hints: E[X 2 ] E[X (X 1)] E[X ] and the Talyor series of exponential)

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EEEC10006: Probability Ming-Chun Lee

Problem 10
A certain photo-sensor fails to activate if it receives fewer than four photons in a

certain time interval. If the number of photons is modeled by a Poisson (2)

random variable X .
(a) Find the probability that the sensor activates. (5 pts)
(b) A new photon sensor is designed such that the number of photons it
receives in a certain time interval follows a Poisson distribution with a
mean of 4 . The sensor is required to activate with a probability of

at least 90% . Determine the minimum number of photons k that the

sensor must be set to detect in order to meet this activation probability

requirement. (5 pts)
(Hint: it is helpful to use Poisson distributions table)