MCV4U6-SL

Chapter 7&19: Probability

Day Topic Homework

Practices: Pg. 182 # 5a, 7a, 11a, 15a

1 7A Introduction to Probability
Mandatory work: Pg. 183 # 16-24

Practices: Pg. 189 # 2a, 4a

Day1: Pg. 189 # 5,7, 11-13, 20, 24a, 26a, 40-45
2/3 7B Probability Techniques
Day 2: Pg. 193 # 46-49, 51-57
Optional work: Pg. 194 # 58, 59
Practices: Pg. 447 # 2a, 4a, 8a, 10a, 13a
4 19B Conditional Probability Mandatory work: Pg. 448 # 16-24
Optional work: Pg. 448 # 25
Mandatory work: Pg. 196 # 1-16
Optional work: Pg. 198 # 17-19
Mixed Review 7
5
Mixed Practice 19
Mandatory work: Pg. 454 # 1-4, 6-8
Optional work: Pg. 456 # 18, 19

6 Chapter Test

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 7A. Introduction to Probability
Empirical: Probability determined by observation
Theoretical: Probability determined by theory (covered in Ch. 7 & Ch. 19)

# of times event A occurs in sample space

𝑃(𝐴) =
# of items in sample space

n(A)
Probability 7.1 𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛 (𝑈 )

Complementary events
7.2 𝑃(𝐴′) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑜𝑟, 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴′) = 1
A’ is the complement of A

Expected number of occurrences

7.3 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 𝑛 × 𝑃(𝐴)
n is number of trials

Example 1: Determine the probability of each:

(a) There are 2 chances of winning in a lottery where 100 tickets are sold.

(i) P(winning) (ii) P(not winning)

(b) Choosing at random one cube of: 7 Red, 3 Blue, 2 Green cubes

(i) P(Red) (ii) P(Red')

Example 2: If you win 25% of the time, how many times would you expect to win if you play 52 times?

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Example 3: In a certain program with 30 students, 10 students study English, 15 study French, and 3 study
both.

(a) Fill in the Venn diagram. (b) Determine:

(i) P(only French)

(ii) P(neither)

Example 4: A standard coin is flipped twice.

(a) Fill in the Tree diagram. (b) Determine:
(i) P(2H)

(ii) P(2 different)

Example 5: Two standard dice are rolled. Find:

(a) Fill in the Sample Space diagram: (b) Determine:

(also known as a Lattice diagram) (i) P(Sum = 7)

(ii) P(Sum ≥ 9)

Suggested reading/viewing: Textbook page 178-181- 61

Practices: Pg. 182 # 5a, 7a, 11a, 15a
Mandatory work: Pg. 183 # 16-24
Optional work: Pg. 183 # 21

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 7B. Probability Techniques
Concepts:

Intersection
7.4
𝐴∩𝐵

A and B, both A and B events happen at the same time

Union
7.4
𝐴∪𝐵

A or B, either A or B event happen, don’t have to be at the same time

Combined Event 7.4 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0
Mutually Exclusive 7.5 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
means no possibility of A and B occurring at the same time

Example 1: If P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.2, and P(A∩B) = 0.1, determine:

(a) P(A∪B) (b) P(B') (c) P(A∩B')

Conditional Probability:
If you are given prior knowledge about the outcome of an experiment, then we can reduce the sample
space.
If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability of A given B is:
ex. Find the probability of rolling a 2 on a standard die, given the result is even.

P(A ∩ B)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

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Example 2: Two events A and B are such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.56, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.3, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.1. Determine:
(a) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) (b) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) (c) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵′)

Example 3: A bag contains 6 Red marbles and 4 Green marbles. Two are drawn randomly without
replacement. Determine:
(a) P(both G) (b) P(at least one G) (c) P(2nd G|1st R)

Independent: Two events that do not affect each other

ex. Taking Art and History are independent events because one does not affect the other

For independent events - Keypoint 7.5

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = P(A) × P(B)
Note: Independent events are not the same as mutually exclusive.

Example 4: If A and B are independent and P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.2, determine P(A∪B).

Example 5: If P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.3, and P(A∪B) = 0.6. Determine:

(a) P(A∩B) (b) if A and B are independent (c) P(B|A)

Suggested reading/viewing: Textbook page 178-181- 61

Practices: Pg. 189 # 2a, 4a
Day1: Pg. 189 # 5,7, 11-13, 20, 24a, 26a, 40-45
Day 2: Pg. 193 # 46-49, 51-57
Optional work: Pg. 194 # 58, 59
When checking your answers at the back of the book, please note:
Question #40 and onwards correspond to Answer #33 and onwards.

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 19B. Conditional Probability
Concepts:

The conditional probability of event A happens given B happens:

The following formula was presented in Section 7B
Conditional Probability 19.1
P(A ∩ B)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

It was also presented in Section 7B that

if two events are independent, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = P(A) × P(B)

This formula allows us to simplify the above conditional probability

Testing for Independence 19.2
formula, and we can use it to test for independence.
Events A and B are independent if:

P(A) × P(B)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = = P(A)
𝑃(𝐵)

Example 1: Two events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.2, and P(A∪B) = 0.65. Determine:
(a) P(A∩B) (b) if A and B are independent

Example 2: Using the given probability chart, determine whether or not A and B are independent.

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Example 3: Box A: 5 green and 3 red. Box B: 3 green and 1 red. A die is rolled and if the result is 1 or 2, a
cube is selected from Box A. Otherwise it is selected from Box B.

(a) Determine the probability that the cube selected is red.

(b) Given the cube selected is red, determine the probability it came from Box A.

Example 4: Given P(A) = 0.4, P(B|A') = 0.3, P(A|B) = 0.2, find P(B|A).

Suggested reading/viewing: Textbook page 446-447

Practices: Pg. 447 # 2a, 4a, 8a, 10a, 13a
Mandatory work: Pg. 448 # 16-24
Optional work: Pg. 448 # 25

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Exercise 1 – AND, OR Events
1. Of 1400 students at Tomlintown High, 800 attended the first school dance of the year. The music was
not good so only 500 attended the next dance. If 300 attended both dances, how many did not go to
either event?

2. A survey of 100 Centennial Collegiate students, the following data was collected:
• 12 studied Sociology, Economics and Accounting
• 27 studied Sociology and Accounting
• 20 studied Economics and Sociology
• 21 studied Economics and Accounting
• 36 studied Sociology
• 36 studied Economics
• 58 studied Accounting

a) Determine the number of students that studied at least one of the three subjects.
b) How many students studied Sociology but neither of the business subjects?
c) What is the probability that a student didn’t study any of the three subjects?
d) Find the probability that a student studied exactly 2 of the subjects.

3. A penny a nickel and a dime were tossed together 50 times. The penny came up heads 30 times, the nickel
26, and the dime 24, the penny and the nickel came up heads together 14, the penny and the dime 10, and
the nickel and the dime 11.
Show that all three came up tails together at most 5 times.

4. As a result of a recent survey, it was estimated that 85 percent of a targeted population enjoys an alcoholic
beverage at least once a week, 35 percent of the population smokes at least one cigarette a day and 25
percent indulge in both vices. What is the probability that an individual chosen at random from the targeted
population either smokes or drinks alcohol?

5. Using the additive principle determine the probability of:

a) cutting a face card or a spade b) cutting a face card or an ace
c) cutting a spade or an ace

6. A market survey estimated that the probability of a household subscribing to Maclean’s is 0.4 and to National
Geographic 0.6 and the probability that a household subscribes to neither is 0.2. What is the probability that a
household chosen at random subscribes to:
a) either magazine? b) both magazines?

7. If 2 10-faced die are rolled, find the probability of :

(Answer d and e using additive principle and verify using the sample space)
a) pair b) sum of 16 c)sum of 11
d) sum of 16 or a pair e) sum of 11 or a pair

8. On the first day of class, a math teacher surveys her class of 32 students with the following results:
• 17 had a notebook
• 20 had a calculator
• 17 had a ruler
• 10 had a calculator and a notebook
• 12 had a calculator and a ruler
• 7 had a notebook and a ruler
If 2 students had none of the three school supplies, find the probability that a student had all three
school supplies.

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Exercise 2 – Conditional Probability
1. A die is rolled. What is the probability that it is a 5, given that it is greater than 3?

2. A card is drawn from a deck of cards. What is the probability that it is a jack, given that it is a face card?

3. In a family of four, Rob and Lesa are the parents and Michael and Jonathan are the children. Each family
member has three Christmas presents under the tree. If one present is selected at random, what is the
probability that the present is for
a) Jonathan, if it is known that the present is for a male?
b) Lesa, if it is known that the present is for one of the parents?

4. A die is rolled twice. What is the probability that the sum is less than 4 given that
a) one of the rolls is a 1?
b) the first roll is a 1?

5. After a recent Canadian census it was discovered that among all of the families in Canada, 40 percent have
no children, 25 percent have one child, 18 percent have two children, 10 percent have three children, 5
percent have four children, and 2 percent have five or more children. If a Canadian family is selected at
random,
a) what is the probability that the family has more than two children?
b) what is the probability that the family has more than two children, given that it has at least one child?

6. A student is chosen at random in Kim’s school. If the chance that the student is taking math this semester is
37 in 50, the chance that the student is on the school’s soccer team is 2 in 125 and the chance that the
student is doing both is 4 in 305, determine the P(taking math | on the soccer team)?

7. In a bag of candy canes, there are 14 broken candies mixed in with 20 good ones. If Meesha chooses three
candies at random from the bag, what is the probability that all three are good?

8. If a pair of dice is tossed (6 faced), what is the probability that

a) the sum of the faces is odd, given that the sum is 7?
b) the sum is 7 given the sum of the faces is odd?
c) the sum of the faces is even given the sum is 7?

9. A card is drawn from a deck of playing cards, and then a second card is drawn without replacing the
first card.
a) What is the probability the first card is a heart?
b) What is the probability the second card is also a heart if the first card is a heart?
c) What is the probability that both cards are hearts?
d) Are these two events independent?

10. You are a dealer in a card game. After dealing your opponent one card, you deal yourself a card. If
your card is an ace, what is the probability that you dealt your opponent an ace?

ANSWERS:
Exercise 1
1) 400 2a) 74 2b) 1 2c) 13/50 2d) 8/25 4) 0.95 5a) 11/26 5b) 4/13 5c) 4/13
6a) 0.8 6b) 0.2 7a) 1/10 7b) 1/20 7c) 1/10 7d) 7/50 7e) 1/5 8) 5

Exercise 2
1) 1/3 2)1/3 3a)1/3 3b)1/2 4a)3/11 4b)1/3 5a) 0.17 5b) 0.28 6) 50/61
7) 19.05% 8a) 1 8b) 1/3 8c) 0 9a)1/4 9b) 4/17 9c) 1/17 9d) No 10) 3/51

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