PROBABILITY?

It is the measure of the relative chance of

occurrence of an event from among a set of
alternatives/events.
Or
Probability is defined as the likelihood of a
particular chance event occurring among the total
number of equally likely events.
 Predictable Phenomenon
Trial: The experiment performed is called as the
trial.
e.g. Tossing of the coin and throwing of the 6
phase dial.
Event: The outcome of the trial is known as the
event.
e.g. coming of head/tail is event or coming of 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, 6 on the dice is event.
 TYPES OF EVENTS

EXCLUSIVE/EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
FAVOURABLE EVENTS
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
NOT MUTUALLY LIKELY EVENTS
EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
DEPENDENT EVENTS
 Exclusive/Exhaustive Events?

All possible outcomes of a trial are called

exclusive/exhaustive events.
e.g. in case of coins,
1 coin = 2 exclusive events
2 coin = 4 exclusive events
3 coin = 8 exclusive events
So the exhaustive events are – 2n (n = no of coins).
 Favourable Events

The outcomes which make necessary the

happening of an event in a trial is called
favourable events.
e.g. throw a dice
The exhaustive events are 6
But favourable event is what you want. For e.g. if
you want 6 then 6 is the favourable event. If you
want an even number then there are 3 favourable
events.
 Mutually Exclusive Events

An event is said to be mutually exclusive if no two

or more of them can happen simultaneously in
the same event/chance i.e. events can’t occur at
same time.
e.g. turning left or right
Head or tail in a toss
 Not Mutually Exclusive Events

When two or more events can occur at the same

time.
e.g. occurrence king of hearts.

Equally Likely Events

Events are said to be equally likely when there is
no reason to expect any one rather than other or
when all of them have same chance of
occurrence.
 Independent Events

Events are independent if the outcome of one of the

event is not affected by the outcome of the other.
e.g. Tossing of two coin, Throwing of 2 dices

Dependent Events
Events are dependent if the outcome of one of the
event is affect by the outcome of the other/previous.
e.g. Drawing of cards from a deck.
 MATHEMATICAL DEFINITION

If in an experiment there are ‘n’ number of

exhaustive events, mutually exclusive events and
equally likely events and ‘m’ number of events
are favorable, then the probability ‘P’ of
happening events ‘E’ i.e. P(E) is the ratio of
favourable events to exhaustive events.
P(E) = Favorable events/Exhaustive Events
Or
m/n
Contd…

E.g. 1. Flip a coin and find the probability of

happening of event head.
Solution
Here exhaustive events (n) are 2 i.e. on tossing a
coin either head or tail will come.
Favorable event (m) is 1 i.e. we want head.
Probability = favorable events/exhaustive events
1/2 = 0.5
Contd…

E.g. 2. Role a dice and find the probability of

happening of event 3.
Here n is 6 and m is 1.
P(E) = m/n = 1/6 = 0.17

E.g. 3. Role 2 dice and find the probability of sum

of 7. Combinations-
D1 = 1 6 3 4 2 5
Here n is 36 and m is 6 D2 = 6 1 4 3 5 2
P(E) = 6/36 = 1/6 = 0.17
Contd…

Probability of an event is 0 ≤ P(E) ≥ 1 always.

When P(E) = 0 Expected events will not take place,
but in biology such events are rare.
P(E) = 1 Expected event is guaranteed.
Probability of occurrence of event is P
Probability of failure of event is q
p+q = 1 (always)
Probability can neither be negative
Contd…

E.g. if probability of born of twins in 80 expected

pregnency =
P = 1/80
Probability of single birth in expected 80
pregnancy =

1-1/80 = 79/80.
 HOME WORK

Find the probability of even number while

throwing a dice.

What is the chance that a leap year selected at

random will contain 53 Sundays.
 HOME WORK

Find the probability of even number while

throwing a dice.
= 3/6 = 1/2

What is the chance that a leap year selected at

random will contain 53 sundays.
No. of possible outcomes
= 2/7 (sat-sun, sun-mon) 1. Sun-Mon
2. Mon-Tue
3. Tue-Wed
4. Wed-Thu
5. Thu-Fri
6. Fri-Sat
7. Sat-Sun
 LAWS OF PROBABILITY

FIRST LAW
It states that the result of one chance event have
no effect on the results of a subsequent chance
events.
Thus the possibility of obtaining heads the second
time you flip it remains at ½.
Contd…

SECOND LAW/ LAW OF

MULTIPLICATION
It states that the probability of the
independent/dependent chance events occurring
together is the product of the probabilities of the
separate events.
Contd…

Independent events
Given the two independent events E1 and E2 then
the probability of simultaneous happening of
these two events is equal to
P(E1.E2) = P(E1) * P(E2)
Contd…

Numerical
Two dices are thrown, what is the chance that the
sum of the number of upper face of 2 dices is
neither 7 nor 11.
Event A = sum is 7
Event 1 = sum is not 7
Event B = sum is 11
Event 2 = sum is not 11
P(E1-E2) = P(E1) * P(E2)
Contd…
EA = (3,4; 4,3; 1,6; 6,1; 5,2; 2,5) = 6
= 6/36 = 1/6
E1 = 1-1/6 = 5/6
EB = (5,6; 6,5) = 2
= 2/36 = 1/18
E2 = 1-1/18 = 17/18

P(E) = P(E1) * P(E2)

= 5/6 * 17/18 = 85/108
Contd…

Dependent Events
When Event 1 is happening
P(E1-E2) = P(E1) * P(E2 after E1)
When Event 2 is happening
P(E2-E1) = P(E2) * P(E1 after E2)
Contd…

Numerical
Consider drawing two cards, without replacement
from a standard deck of 52 cards. That means we
are drawing the first card, leaving it out and then
drawing the second.
What is the probability that both cards selected
are black?
Contd…

Solution
There are 26 black cards in a deck of 52 cards.
Probability of first card black = 26/52
Probability of second card black = 25/51
P (E) = 26/52 * 25/51
Contd…

Numerical
A table of 5 students has 3 seniors and 2 juniors.
Teacher is going to pick 2 students at random
from this group to present homework solutions.
Find the probability that both students selected
are juniors.
Contd…

Numerical
Total students in class – 5
Probability of selecting first junior student
at first time (PE1) – 2/5
Probability of selecting second junior student at
second time (PE2) – 1/4
P(E1.E2) = 2/5 * 1/4 = 2/20
= 1/10
Contd…

THIRD LAW/LAW OF ADDITION

It deals with the chance events that are mutually
exclusive/not mutually exclusive.
It states that the probabilities of any number of
mutually exclusive/not mutually exclusive events
will occur is the sum of the independent
probabilities.
Contd…

FOR MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

If an event E happens in N number of mutually
exclusive ways such as E1 E2 E3 …. En then the
probability of happening of event E is the sum of
probability of individual events.
Contd…
Numerical
Two dices are thrown, what is the chance that the sum of
the number of upper face of the two dice is >9.
Trial – throwing of 2 dice
Event – sum of number of upper face which should be >9.
Event 1 = 10 (6,4; 4,6; 5,5)
Event 2 = 11 (5,6; 6,5)
Event 3 = 12 (6,6)
P(E1) = sum is 10 = (1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 ) = 3/36 = 1/12
P(E2) = sum is 11 = (1/36 + 1/36 ) = 2/36 = 1/18
P(E3) = sum is 12 = 1/36
Contd…

P(E) = P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3)

P(E) = 1/12 + 1/18 + 1/36
P(E) = 6/36 = 1/6
Difference between Mutually exclusive and independent events

Mutually exclusive events Independent events

When the occurrence is not simultaneous When the occurence of one event does
for two events then they are termed as not control the happening of the other
Mutually exclusive events. event then it is termed as an independent
event.

The non-occurrence of an event will end There is no influence of an occurrence

up in the occurrence of an event. with another and they are independent of
each other.

The mathematical formula for mutually The mathematical formula for

exclusive events can be represented as independent events can be defined as P(X
P(X and Y) = 0 and Y) = P(X) P(Y)

The sets will not overlap in the case of The sets will overlap in the case of
mutually exclusive events. independent events.
Not mutually exclusive
When the events are not mutually
exclusive.
Numerical
From a pack of card one card is drawn at
random, what is the chance that the card is
ace or spade.
P(E1) = Probability of the occurring of ACE
P(E2) = Probability of the occurring of Spade
P(E3) = Probability of the occurring of ACE
and Spade
Contd…

P(E1) = 4/52 = 1/13

P(E2) = 13/52 = 1/4
P(E3) = 1/52
P(E) = P(E1) + P(E2) - P(E3)
P(E) = 1/13 + 1/4 – 1/52
= 16/52 = 4/13
THEORETICAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
In the real world, we rarely come across
experiments with single outcomes like heads or
tails.
Generally, we do the experiment as a set of
events and carry it for n number of times which
give us a collection of outcomes which we can
represent in the form of theoretical distribution.
By theoretical distribution, we take mean of a
frequency distribution, which we obtain in
relation to a random variable by some
mathematical model.
• Theoretical distribution is a distribution that is
derived from certain principles or assumptions by
logical and mathematical reasoning, as opposed to
one derived from real-world data obtained by
empirical research.
THEORETICAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Types:-
Binomial Distribution
Poison Distribution
Normal Distribution
 Binomial Distribution

The prefix ‘Bi’ means two or twice. A binomial

distribution can be understood as the probability
of a trail with two and only two outcomes. It is a
type of distribution that has two different
outcomes namely, ‘success’ and ‘failure’. Also, it is
applicable to discrete random variables only.
Contd…
Criteria
Binomial distribution must also meet the following
criteria:
1. The number of observation of trials are large but
finite.
2. Each observation or trial is independent i.e. the
probability of success is exactly the same from
one trial to another
3. There are only 2 outcomes, where occurrence of
one will be success and another will be failure.
4. Events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
Contd…

Binomial Probability Distribution –

nC prqn-r = {n!/[r!(n-r)! ]} x pr x qn-r
r
n = No. of times the experiment runs or no. of
trials (n is finite)
p = Probability of success in each trial
q = Probability of failure in each trial
r = The number of successes that results from the
binomial experiment.
Contd…
Numerical
Suppose a dice is tossed 5 times. What is the
probability of getting exactly 2 fours.
Solution
n = 5 r = 2 p in a single trial is = 1/6 = 0.167
Binomial Probability = nCrprqn-r = 5C2p2q5-2
= {5!/[2!(5-2)! ]} x (0.167)2 x (1-0.167)5-2
= 5!/2! X 3! X 0.028 X (0.833)2
= 5x4x3x2x1/2x1 x 3x2x1 x 0.28 x 0.694
= 0.162
In Case of Cumulative Binomial Probability-
Individual BP are calculated and added to each
other.
Numerical
Incidents of occupational disease in an industry is
such that the workers have 20% chances of
suffering form it. What is the probability that out
of 6, 4 or more workers will conduct that disease.
Contd…

Solution
n = 6 r = 4,5,6 p = 0.2 q = 0.8
Binomial Probability = P(4) + P(5) + P(6)
BP = 6!/4!x(6-4)!x(0.2)4x(0.8)2 + 6!/5!x(6-
5)!x(0.2)5x(0.8)1 + 6!/6!x(6-6)!x(0.2)6x(0.8)0
= 0.016896
Contd…

Properties
Mean = np
Standard deviation =
Variants = npq
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
It is also known as distribution of rare events.
In this distribution number of trials are too large
and probability of success is very small.
Poison distribution is defined as a distribution
where DISCRETE events occur in a continuous but
finite interval of time or space.
Contd…
The following conditions must apply:
• An event can occur any number of times during a time
period.
• The events are often defects, accidents or unusual natural
happening such as earthquakes, where in theory there is no
upper limit on the number of events.
• The probability of an event occurring is proportional to the
length of the time period. For example, it should be twice as
likely for an event to occur in a 2 hour time period than it is
for an event to occur in a 1 hour period.
• Events must not occur simultaneously
• Each occurrence must be independent of others and must be
at random.
• The interval is on some continuous measurement such as
time, length or area.
Contd…

Formula
P (x) = e-m mx/x!

m = mean/average = np
where n = total number of trials
p = probability of success
e is constant = 2.71828
X = number of success required
Contd…

Numerical
A hospital which receives an average 4 calls in
10 minutes of interval. What is the probability
that there are at most 2 emergency calls.
Solutions
P(x) = e-m mx/ x!
Here e is 2.71828
m=4
x ≤ 2 i.e. 0,1,2
Contd…

P(X=0) = 2.71828-4 * 40 / 0! = 0.018 * 1 / 1

P(X=1) = 2.71828-4 * 41 / 1! = 0.018 * 4 / 1
P(X=2) = 2.71828-4 * 42 / 2! = 0.018 * 16 / 2*1

P(X≤2) = 0.018 + 0.072 + 0.144 = 0.234

Contd…

Properties
Mean = np
Variance = m
Standard deviation =
 Normal Distribution

Most widely known and used for all distribution

but mainly continuous distribution. It is also
known as “bell curve” and “Gaussian
Distribution”.
Normal distribution is a continuous probability
distribution where values lies in a symmetrical
fashion mostly situated around the mean.
2 parameters- mean and standard deviation
Contd…
Mean –
• It is the central tendency of the distribution
• Most values cluster around the mean. On a graph,
changing the mean shifts the entire curve left or
right on the x-axis.
• It defines the height of the normal distribution
Standard Deviation –
• It is a measure of variability
• It defines the width of the normal distribution
• It determines the far away from the mean the
values will fall. It represents the typical distance
between the observations and the average.
Contd…
CHARACTERISTICS
• Symmetrical and bell shaped
• Continuous for all values of x between -∞ to +∞ so that each
conceivable interval of real numbers has a probability other than
zero i.e.
-∞ ≤ x ≥ +∞
• Applied to single variable continuous data.
e.g., height of plants, weight of lambs and length of time.
• Used to calculate the probability of occurrence less than, more than
and between given values.
e.g. the probability that the plant will be less than 70 mm.
• The area under the normal curve is equal to 1.0.
• Normal distributions are denser in the center and less dense in the
tails.
Contd…

Case I = x̄±1σ% = 68.27

Case II = x̄±2σ = 95.45%
Case III = x̄±3σ = 99.73% (It will never be 100%)
 µ
Z=( )
σ
Z = standard score/ Z score (standard normal
distribution value)
= raw data value
µ = probability mean
σ = probability standard deviation
Contd…

Properties
All are symmetrical i.e. the normal distribution
can not model skewed distribution.
The mean mode and median are all equal
Half of the population are less than the mean and
half is greater than the mean.
The empirical rule allows you to determine the
proportions of values that fall within certain
distances from the mean.
Contd…

It is just one of many probability distribution and

it does not fit all populations.
The curve never touches the base hence its range
is infinity.
There is one maximum point the normal curve is
unimodal.
It deals with continuous variable.
Contd…

Numerical
Calculate the probability distribution of apple and
oranges having weight of 110 g and 100 g with
mean weight of 100 g and 140 g and standard
deviation of 15 and 25 respectively.
APPLE ORANGES
µ 100 g 140 g
110 g 100 g
σ 15 g 25 g
 P

ZApple = 110-100/15 =
0.667
ZOrange = 100-140/25 =
-1.6
ZApple > Zorange
Value of Z according to
table = Zapple = 0.2454
Zorange = 0.4452
P
Contd…

Numercial
Assume the height of soldiers to be 68.22” (mean)
With S.D. = 3.286
Calculate how many soldiers in a regiment of 100
would expect to be over 6 feet Tall.
µ = 68.22
= 72
σ = 3.286
P = ( > 72)
 P

Z = 72-68.22/3.286 = 1.15
Z from table = 0.3749 (for soldiers those are 6 feet
height)
Soldiers > 72 = 0.5-0.3749 = 0.1251
0.1251x1000 = 125.1 soldiers will have height >6
feet.
 P

Importance of probability