Proceedings of CONF-MLA 2024 Workshop: Securing the Future: Empowering Cyber Defense with Machine Learning and Deep

Learning
DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

Predicting Movie Box Office Based on Machine Learning,

Deep Learning, and Statistical Methods

Yirui Zheng
School of Science, Beijing Jianzhu University, Beijing, 100000, China

[email protected]

Abstract. The global film industry has been proved to impose a significant impact on both
culture and the economy, with box office revenue serving as a crucial indicator of a film's
commercial success. This study utilizes data from the Kaggle "TMDB Box Office Prediction"
competition, encompassing 3,000 films released between 1990 and 2018, to predict movie box
office revenue using Random Forest, XGBoost algorithms, and deep learning models such as
Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bidirectional LSTM) and Simple Recurrent Neural
Network (SimpleRNN). The goal is to develop a model that accurately predicts movie box office.
By comprehensively considering multiple factors such as budget, popularity and film
characteristics, this study not only significantly improves the accuracy of box office prediction,
but also provides a scientific basis for the formulation of film market strategies. The results
demonstrate that the Bidirectional LSTM excels in handling complex time-series data, showing
strong trend-capturing capabilities, while XGBoost exhibits greater robustness in dealing with
complex data and outliers. These findings can not only provide guidance for making more
effective strategies on film production and distribution, but also provide new directions for future
research, such as delving into the impact of social media on box office and developing more
sophisticated predictive models to adapt to changing market dynamics.

Keywords: Machine learning, deep learning, statistical methods, movie box office.

1. Introduction
The film industry can impact global culture and the economy in a profound manner, with box office
revenue (BOR) serving as a critical indicator that marks the commercial success of a film. As the film
market rapidly expands and undergoes digital transformation, the need for accurate box office prediction
has become increasingly urgent. Traditional prediction methods struggle to keep up with emerging
market trends, such as the influence of social media and online reviews. To address this challenge, this
study employs a combination of machine learning, deep learning, and statistical methods to develop a
comprehensive box office prediction model that integrates multiple data sources. This model not only
helps to improve prediction accuracy as well as practicality but also provides valuable support for the
scientific formulation of film production and marketing strategies.
This paper will review significant research achievements in the realm of movie box office prediction
and delve into the effectiveness and challenges of various methods in practical applications. A solid
foundation has already been laid by the study on movie box office prediction. Since Litman employed
a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of creative allocation and release timing on box

© 2024 The Authors. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

office performance, research in this area has continued to deepen [1]. In 2000, Eliashberg and Jonker
utilized Markov chains to explore box office factors, albeit with limitations due to the subjectivity of
data [2]. By 2008, Dellarocasand Wood emphasized the influence on box office outcomes imposed by
social media [3]. The impact of star actors and directors is also paramount in box office prediction. Yao
and Hua confirmed the positive influence on box office results brought by film directors and star actors,
with directors exerting a particularly significant effect [4, 5]. Zhou leveraged machine learning and data
visualization tools to make complex data analysis more intuitive and efficient [6].
He and Hu constructed an efficient box office prediction model using Maoyan data and ensemble
algorithms, enhancing prediction accuracy [7]. Dai and Chen explored the box office prediction of
Chinese movies based on BP neural networks together with big data technology, demonstrating higher
accuracy than traditional models [8]. Yan introduced new variables such as theme-based movies and
pandemic impacts, utilizing the MSC-SVM model to improve prediction performance [9]. Lu employed
ensemble learning methods to enhance model stability by optimizing XGBoost parameters [10]. Yao
significantly improved the accuracy of domestic movie box office predictions with the XGB-CatBoost
model combined with a minimum relative error weighting method [11]. Han integrated Stacking
ensemble learning with hyperparameter optimization methods, significantly reducing prediction errors
through the GWO optimization algorithm [12]. Fang innovatively incorporated sentiment analysis of
movie reviews into box office models, enhancing prediction accuracy [13].
Madongo and Zhong achieved a 59.30% accuracy in predicting opening weekend box office by
combining visual features of movie posters with metadata based on the DMFCNN model [14]. Chen
proposed a weighted Stacking algorithm combined with deep learning to further enhance box office
prediction performance [15]. Zha conducted a study to inspect the influence of directors' centrality on
box office outcomes of Hollywood movies based on BP neural networks and complex network theory,
optimizing prediction models [16]. The realm of prediction on movie box office continues to evolve,
transitioning from basic statistical models to more sophisticated machine learning and data analysis
techniques [17]. Researchers are exploring diverse methodologies, ranging from multiple linear
regression and Markov chains to ensemble learning, neural networks, and multimodal feature
classification, to predict the box office in more accurate ways with better efficiency. Notably, the
introduction to machine learning technologies has significantly enhanced the capability to handle
complex datasets, enabling the comprehensive consideration of factors such as social media influence,
the impact of stars and directors, and market dynamics.

2. Methodology

2.1. Data sources and description

The database utilized in this study originates from the "TMDB Box Office Prediction" competition
hosted on Kaggle, encompassing detailed information and box office data for films released between
1990 and 2018. This extensive dataset comprises data on 3000 films, each film entry including
fundamental information (e.g., movie title, release date), film-specific attributes (such as genre, language,
budget), and related metadata (like cast and crew, production companies). Notably, each record also
incorporates the film's worldwide gross box office revenue, serving as the target variable for prediction
in this research. Table 1 presents a comprehensive statistical summary of all fields extracted from the
"TMDB Box Office Prediction" dataset.
Table 1. Detailed Field Statistics of Training Set
Field Number Unique Value Frequency
id 3000 - -
budget 3000 - -
genres 2993 872 266
imdb_id 3000 3000 1

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

Table 1. (continued).

original_language 3000 36 2575

original_title 3000 2975 2
overview 2992 2992 1
popularity 3000 - -
poster_path 2999 2999 1
production_companies 2844 2383 51
production_countries 2945 321 1752
release_date 3000 2398 5
runtime 2998 - -
spoken_languages 2980 401 1817
status 3000 2 2996
tagline 2403 2400 1
title 3000 2969 Multiple
Keywords 2724 2648 27
cast 2987 2975 1
crew 2984 2984 1
revenue 3000 - -

2.2. Machine learning

Figure 1 shows the data analysis workflow for predicting movie box office revenue. The process starts
with data loading and cleaning to address inconsistencies and missing values.

Figure 1. Data Analysis Workflow for Predicting Movie Box Office Revenue.

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

Next, feature engineering and categorical data processing prepare the dataset for model training. This
paper uses Random Forest and XGBoost for training and optimize their parameters to improve
performance. Finally, this paper evaluates the model’s prediction accuracy using metrics like R²,MAE,
and MAPE to ensure accurate global revenue predictions for movies.
The data was partitioned into an integration of a training set with a test set accounting for 80% and
20% respectively to ensure the model's generalization ability on unseen data. In this study, Random
Forest and XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) were used in the prediction of movie box office
revenue. Random Forest, known as an ensemble method using multiple decision trees and voting,
reduces overfitting, improves generalization, and handles high-dimensional data well. It identifies
important features, is less sensitive to hyperparameters, and provides reliable results quickly. Key
parameters were defined such as n_estimators (i.e. the number of trees), max_depth (maximum depth),
min_samples_split (minimum samples to split a node), and min_samples_leaf (minimum samples per
leaf). Efficient parameter tuning, model training, and evaluation were performed using
RandomizedSearchCV and three-fold cross-validation.
XGBoost, based on gradient boosting, is highly regarded for its efficiency and accuracy in machine
learning competitions. It manages missing values, uses parallel processing, and trains quickly on large
datasets. Key parameters include n_estimators (i.e. the number of trees), max_depth (tree depth),
learning_rate (learning rate), subsample (subsample ratio), and colsample_bytree (feature subsampling
ratio). These parameters impact training speed and performance. RandomizedSearchCV optimizes them
through random sampling and cross-validation. Having found the optimal parameters, the XGBoost
model is trained, and its performance is evaluated using metrics like R²(coefficient of determination),
mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). To optimize model
performance, the following parameter space was defined, as shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Parameter Space Settings for Random Forest and XGBoost Models
Type Random Forest XGBoost
n_estimators 100 to 500 100 to 500
max_depth 10 to 40 and no limit 3 to 8
min_samples_split 2 to 10 Not Applicable
min_samples_leaf 1 to 4 Not Applicable
learning_rate Not Applicable 0.01 to 0.2
subsample Not Applicable 0.6 to 1.0
colsample_bytree Not Applicable 0.6 to 1.0

During model training, RandomizedSearchCV is used for hyperparameter tuning. It efficiently

explores a wide parameter space through random sampling, evaluating each combination with 100
iterations (n_iter=100) and 3-fold cross-validation (cv=3). After training, the best models are selected
and used for predictions on the test set. Model performance is assessed using three metrics: R², mean
absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

2.3. Deep learning

2.3.1. Bidirectional LSTM model structure and principles. Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory
(Bidirectional LSTM) is an advanced LSTM model with both forward and backward layers. It processes
data in both directions, allowing it to capture information from past and future sequences simultaneously.
This makes Bidirectional LSTM ideal for time-series data, such as predicting movie box office revenue,
as it better captures market trends and consumer behavior by analyzing sequences in both directions.

2.3.2. SimpleRNN model structure and principles. Simple Recurrent Neural Network (SimpleRNN) is
a basic model designed for simple time-series problems. It maintains a hidden state at each step to
capture dependencies within the sequence. However, SimpleRNN often struggles with the vanishing

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

gradient problem in long sequences, resulting in lower performance compared to LSTM on complex
data. Nevertheless, it can still deliver effective predictions for shorter or simpler time-series data.

2.3.3. Bidirectional LSTM model structure and principles. Custom Loss Function: In this model, the
loss function is a combination of Mean Squared Error (MSE) with the Log-Cosh loss function. MSE
focuses on reducing the difference between the predicted and actual values, while Log-Cosh can handle
outliers better, thus improving the model's robustness. The loss function is defined as: 𝐿𝑜𝑠𝑠 = 𝑀𝑆𝐸 +
𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑐𝑜𝑠ℎ(𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 − 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒)). This combined loss function retains the accuracy of
MSE while better handling deviations in nonlinear data.

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Model performance

An R²of 0.6724 was achieved by the Random Forest model, indicating that it explains a significant
section of the data’s variability. Its MAE was 0.2844 and MAPE was 1.6010%, reflecting its accuracy
in box office predictions (Table 3).
Table 3. Model performance comparison
Model Optimal Parameters R² MAE MAPE (%)
Random Forest n_estimators: 500 0.67236 0.28439 1.601
min_samples_split:2
min_samples_leaf:2
max_depth: 10
random_state: 42
XGBoost subsample: 0.7 0.70841 0.28065 1.3643
n_estimators: 400
max_depth:4
learning_rate: 0.01
colsample_bytree:0.8
random_state: 42
LSTM Layer 1: 128 neurons
Bidirectional LSTM Layer 2: 64 neurons
0.7364 0.3319 1.3802
LSTM learning_rate: 0.001
dropout: 0.2
RNN Layer 1: 128 neurons
RNN Layer 2: 64 neurons
Simple RNN 0.7027 0.3136 1.4840
learning_rate: 0.001
dropout: 0.2

XGBoost performed better, with an R²of 0.7084, and lower MAE and MAPE values of 0.2807 and
1.3643%, respectively, indicating higher precision and lower prediction errors.
The Bidirectional LSTM model, with an R²of 0.7364, captured complex patterns effectively.
However, its MAE and MAPE were 0.3319 and 1.3802%, respectively, suggesting a trade-off between
complexity and prediction error.
The SimpleRNN model had an R²of 0.7027, an MAE of 0.3136, and a MAPE of 1.4840%. It
provided balanced performance but was less effective for complex data compared to Bidirectional
LSTM.
Overall, the Bidirectional LSTM is selected as the best model for the prediction of movie box office
due to its superior performance with complex time-series data.

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

3.2. Machine learning visualization

3.2.1. Feature correlation. This study explored the correlations between features in the movie dataset
through a correlation matrix to identify key factors that may influence movie box office performance.

Figure 2. Film data feature correlation matrix

Figure 2 shows that budget has a strong positive correlation of 0.75 with box office revenue,
indicating that higher budgets generally lead to higher revenue. Popularity has a moderate positive
correlation of 0.46, suggesting that market appeal also affects revenue. Movie length has a weak positive
correlation of 0.22, implying it has a minor impact on revenue. Factors like release month and day of
the week have lower correlations, with the day of the week at -0.14, indicating possible cyclical effects.
Overall, budget, popularity, and movie length are key factors influencing box office revenue.

3.2.2. Forecast results and error analysis. The relationship between predicted and actual values is
depicted in Figure 3, with perfect predictions represented by the dashed line.

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

Figure 3. Scatter Plot Comparing Actual vs. Predicted Outcomes for Random Forest and XGBoost

For the Random Forest model, points are mainly concentrated in the lower range of actual values (0-
2), indicating good prediction consistency for low revenues but sparse and variable predictions for high
revenues.
The XGBoost model also shows concentration in the low revenue range but with less dispersion than
Random Forest, suggesting better clustering. Predictions for high revenues are more concentrated than
those of Random Forest, indicating that XGBoost may be more accurate and consistent for high revenues.
Both models perform well for low to medium box office revenues but struggle with predicting high
revenues.

Figure 4. Distribution of Prediction Accuracy and Error for Two Predictive Models

The Random Forest model's residual plot, which is displayed in Figure 4, reveals that most forecasts
are fairly close to the actual values, with residuals typically being close to zero. However, there is a wide
residual range (from -2 to 2), indicating some significant prediction errors and noticeable outliers. The
box plot confirms that while the median is close to zero, there are several larger errors.

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

In contrast, the residual plot for the XGBoost model shows data points more tightly clustered around
zero, suggesting better error control and consistency. Residuals are mainly within -1 to 1, and although
there are still outliers, the overall distribution is more compact. In comparison to Random Forest, the
XGBoost box plot shows a shorter interquartile range and fewer outliers, indicating better accuracy and
robustness. Overall, XGBoost shows better prediction accuracy and error management than Random
Forest.

3.2.3. Feature importance analysis. Feature importance is shown in Figure 5 shows for utilizing the
Random Forest model to predict movie box office revenues. The feature budget_year_ratio is the most
important, indicating that the ratio of movie budget to release year is crucial. Other important features
include inflationBudget and budget, which relate to financial investment, and log_budget and
popularity_mean_year, reflecting the impact of popularity and adjusted budget on box office
performance.

Figure 5. Random Forest Feature Importance Chart

These results highlight the significance of budget and marketing, as well as how popularity affects
market appeal. Features like isTaglineNA and production_countries_None have low importance and
contribute less to predictions, likely due to their weak correlation with revenues.
Figure 6 shows feature importance for movie box office prediction using XGBoost. Financial
features like log_budget, budget_year_ratio, budget, and inflationBudget are the most critical,
highlighting the significant impact of investment on a film’s success. budget_runtime_ratio and
popularity_mean_year also play important roles, reflecting how movie popularity and appeal contribute
to box office performance. Additionally, runtime and popularity directly affect box office results,
emphasizing the influence of audience preferences.

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Figure 6. XGBoost Feature Importance Map

3.3. Deep learning visualization

Figure 7 illustrates how the training loss initially drops off quickly before stabilizing at roughly 10
epochs and then dropping to a low level. This indicates that the model's performance on the training set
is gradually optimized and stabilized.

Figure 7. Bidirectional LSTM Model Loss Over Epochs

The validation loss decreases at a slightly slower rate than the training loss and begins to stabilize
around 10 epochs. Although the validation loss is higher, the model does not show appreciable
overfitting on the validation set, as evidenced by the rather constant gap between the training and
validation losses.

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

Figure 8. SimpleRNN Model Loss Over Epochs

Figure 8 illustrates how SimpleRNN's training loss likewise drops off quickly in the first few epochs
before stabilizing at about 10 epochs, eventually reaching a low value, indicating that the model has
gradually achieved a good fit on the training data.
The validation loss decreases at a slower pace and stabilizes after the first 10 epochs. Compared to
Bidirectional LSTM, the validation loss curve for SimpleRNN shows some differences, with a slower
decline and slight fluctuations later on, which may indicate some instability on the validation set and
suggest the potential presence of slight overfitting.
Both models demonstrate a good downward trend in training and validation losses, indicating that
they are learning and optimizing over time. However, the Bidirectional LSTM model shows more stable
validation loss, while the SimpleRNN model's validation loss fluctuates somewhat in the later stages,
possibly indicating that Bidirectional LSTM has better generalization ability on this task compared to
SimpleRNN.

Figure 9. Bidirectional LSTM Model: True vs Predicted Values

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

Figure 9 shows a comparison between the predicted values and the actual values on the test set using
the Bidirectional LSTM model. The actual values are represented by the blue line while the model's
predictions by the orange line. As is displayed in the figure, the model's predictions generally follow
similar trends and patterns to the actual values in most cases. However, there are certain data points
where discrepancies exist between the predicted and actual values, particularly in regions with higher
or lower peaks. Overall, the Bidirectional LSTM model is able to track the trends in the data well, but
its prediction accuracy may decline in some extreme cases.

Figure 10. SimpleRNN Model: True vs Predicted Values

Figure 10 presents a comparison of the predicted and actual values on the test set using the
SimpleRNN model. The actual values are marked by the blue line while the model's predictions by the
orange line. Compared to the Bidirectional LSTM model, the SimpleRNN model also shows a good fit
between the predicted and actual values. The overall trends are consistent, but the SimpleRNN model
exhibits more noticeable discrepancies in some data points, especially in areas with rapid changes. This
suggests that the SimpleRNN model may be less stable than the Bidirectional LSTM model in capturing
complex data patterns.
Both models demonstrate a good fit between the predicted and actual values, but the Bidirectional
LSTM model has a slight advantage in capturing data trends. The SimpleRNN model, on the other hand,
may show larger discrepancies in certain cases, particularly when dealing with rapidly changing data.

3.4. Discussion
Through comparative analysis, this paper found that the Bidirectional LSTM performed exceptionally
well in movie box office prediction, particularly in handling complex time-series data. With an R²value
of 0.7364, higher than the other models, it demonstrated superior ability in capturing data trends and
patterns, showcasing strong predictive power.
Feature importance analysis revealed that budget, budget-year ratio, and inflation-adjusted budget
are key factors influencing box office revenue. These financial indicators have a direct impact on a
movie’s commercial success, further validating the Bidirectional LSTM’s capability in managing
complex financial and market data.
Compared to other models, the Bidirectional LSTM is better at capturing intricate patterns within the
data, particularly when dealing with time-series data related to movie box office performance. As a
result, the Bidirectional LSTM was selected as the best model for movie box office prediction.

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DOI: 10.54254/2755-2721/94/2024MELB0069

The findings of this study hold practical value for decision-making in the film industry, aiding in the
optimization of movie budgets and marketing strategies, and helping producers and distributors make
more accurate business decisions. Future research could explore the integration of additional data
sources, such as social media sentiment and audience reviews, to further enhance the model's predictive
accuracy and applicability.

4. Conclusion
The effectiveness of several machine learning and deep learning models in predicting movie box office
was methodically examined in this study whose results show that the Bidirectional LSTM model
performed the best in handling complex time-series data, with a high R²value, demonstrating strong
trend-capturing capabilities. The XGBoost model excelled in prediction accuracy and stability, making
it particularly suitable for dealing with complex data and outliers.
Feature importance analysis further confirmed that financial indicators such as budget, budget-year
ratio, and inflation-adjusted budget are critical factors influencing movie box office revenue. These
factors directly determine a movie's commercial success.
The conclusions of the study offer insightful information to help the film business make decisions.,
aiding producers and distributors in optimizing budgets and marketing strategies. Future research could
integrate additional dimensions of data, such as social media sentiment and audience reviews, to further
enhance prediction accuracy and model applicability. Additionally, exploring more advanced algorithms
could drive further advancements in the realm of predicting movie box office.

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