Powering The Future of Electrical Load Forecasting Using A Regression Learner in Machine Learning
Powering The Future of Electrical Load Forecasting Using A Regression Learner in Machine Learning
Corresponding Author:
Sushama D. Wankhade
Department of Instrumentation Engineering, Bharati Vidyapeeth College of Engineering
CBD Belapur, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra 400614, India
Email: [email protected]
1. INTRODUCTION
Load forecasting is a crucial component of both the planning and operation of power systems.
Accurate load prediction is crucial for determining the scheduling of power units, planning for capacity,
improving the network, and managing demand from consumers [1]. Given the challenges associated with
storing large amounts of electrical energy and the fluctuations in power demand, it is necessary to ensure that
the power generation system is able to adapt to changes in load in real-time. Load forecasting is crucial in
power infrastructure planning and grid operation. Precise load forecasting helps reduce the discrepancy
between electricity supply and demand, thereby enhancing the stability of power systems.
The precision of the forecasting models is crucial in managing the emerging energy generation and
consumption. Artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods are being researched and used in a wide range of
applications around the world because they are better at handling complex input-output relationships. Machine
learning (ML) is revolutionizing electrical load forecasting, paving the way for a more efficient, reliable, and
sustainable future for the power grid [2], [3]. Traditionally, predicting electricity demand relied on statistical
models and historical trends. However, the rise of ML has revolutionized the field, offering more accurate and
flexible forecasting.
Here's how ML is changing the game:
- Capturing complexity: Electricity demand is influenced by a myriad of factors, like weather, time of day,
holidays, and even social events. ML algorithms can unravel these complex relationships and create models
that adapt to dynamic conditions [3].
- Increased accuracy: ML models have the ability to acquire knowledge from extensive datasets, which
encompass historical load patterns, weather forecasts, and real-time grid information. This leads to more
precise predictions, reducing the risk of energy shortages or overproduction [4].
- Enhanced scalability: ML models can handle large datasets efficiently, making them ideal for forecasting
at different levels, from individual buildings to entire power grids. This flexibility empowers tailored
solutions for diverse scenarios [4].
- Proactive planning: Accurate forecasts enable efficient resource allocation, optimizing power generation
and distribution. This translates to cost savings, reduced emissions, and improved grid reliability.
- Improved grid management: Predicting peak demand allows utilities to optimize generation and
distribution, reducing costs and enhancing reliability.
- Renewable energy integration: ML can help integrate the variable output of renewable sources like solar
and wind into the grid, maximizing their contribution.
- Demand-side management: Predicting peak demand allows utilities to optimize generation and distribution,
reducing costs and enhancing reliability. By understanding future load, utilities can incentivize consumers
to shift consumption patterns, smoothing demand peaks and reducing stress on the grid.
A diverse set of ML tools is at play, like regression models, which include models like random forests
and support vector machines (SVM). These models capture non-linear relationships between multiple input
features (weather, time of day) and the electricity load. Deep learning techniques like long short-term memory
(LSTM) networks excel at handling temporal data, effectively capturing day-to-day and seasonal patterns in
electricity consumption. Hybrid approaches, combining different ML algorithms can leverage their strengths,
boosting overall forecasting accuracy.
Regression refers to a set of statistical methods used to analyze the relationship between a dependent
variable and one or more independent variables. A regression model can determine if there is a relationship
between changes in the dependent variable and changes in one or more of the explanatory variables. Regression
methods are commonly employed in electrical load forecasting to predict future electricity usage
accurately [5]. Various studies have highlighted the effectiveness of regression models in this domain. For
instance, a study utilized linear regression equations to forecast electricity loads, achieving an average
forecasting error of 3.86% for active power and 3.77% for apparent power [6]. Additionally, another research
paper evaluated 24 regression model-based algorithms for half-hourly load forecasting, with Gaussian process
regression models demonstrating the best performance [7]. Furthermore, a meta-regression analysis identified
the LSTM approach and neural networks combined with other methods as effective forecasting techniques,
emphasizing the importance of model selection in load forecasting [8]. These findings underscore the
significance of regression methods in accurately predicting electrical loads, aiding in efficient energy
management and resource allocation. Utilized artificial intelligence, neural network, ARIMA models, Bayesian
models, and regression models for forecasting and proposed a solution to the problem of selecting three
parameters for the support vector regression (SVR) model using a chaotic algorithm to enhance global
optimization and prevent falling into local optimization [9], [10]. Gaussian process regression method is
recommended for load prediction [11].
This paper focuses on regression learners for electrical load prediction using ML, utilizing real time
hourly data from January 2019 and July, 2022 from the 33/11 kV substation at Wavi, India for analysis to
compare 14 regression models like linear regression, SVM, and neural networks. The main contributions of
the paper include: i) propose load forecasting approach for Wavi substation and ii) demonstrate probabilistic
forecasting models. Regression models' performance is evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean
squared error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. A conclusion is drawn by identifying intricate
patterns and relationships affecting electricity demand for accurate predictions. The optimized model shows a
high correlation between actual and forecasted load.
2. METHODOLOGY
The experimentation is done with regression learners using ML on MATLAB platform. Regression
learner is a MATLAB tool that can be used to train different regression models with supervised ML. Initially,
the real-time data is acquired from the substation, and, arranged on a daily basis for twenty-four hours. The
features selected for data arrangement are date, day of the week, hour of the week, and maximum and minimum
Powering the future of electrical load forecasting using a regression learner … (Sushama D. Wankhade)
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temperature. Data is then tested for different models. In this experiment total of fourteen models are tested.
After validating the scheme and parameter optimization of hyperparameters model performance is assessed
again. In all fourteen models from five regression families Table 1 are tested here and the results obtained are
tabulated as shown in Table 2. The optimized model is then tested for forecasting of the load. The different
models used for regression are discussed below. The complete process flow of the work is as
shown in Figure 1.
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method. The Kernel trick is the primary component of SVM that is renowned for its significance. A Kernel is
a method for calculating the dot product of two vectors, x, and y, in a feature space that is often of very high
dimensionality. This is why Kernel functions are occasionally referred to as "generalized dot products". The
SVM method can perform a Kernel trick that can overcome the non-linear distribution of data [15], [16].
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Here, W(l) and b(l) are the weight matrix and bias vector for the l-th layer, respectively, and σ is the activation
function.
3. MODEL EVALUATION
In order to assess the suitability of a model, it is essential to have a performance metric that measures
how well it fits the data. It is crucial to ascertain the adequacy of a regression model, which involves assessing
whether the model accurately predicts the target variables within an acceptable level of accuracy. These metrics
can be used for evaluation to measure the accuracy of a regression model. The following metrics are generally
employed for model performance evaluation.
- RMSE
This is a frequently employed metric for evaluating the accuracy of predictions by measuring the
Euclidean distance between predicted values and true values. It is frequently employed in supervised learning
applications due to its reliance on accurate measurements for each predicted data point. RMSE can be
represented as (1).
∑𝑁 ̂ 2
𝑖=1‖𝑦(𝑖)−𝑦(𝑖)‖
𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √ (1)
𝑁
The output of this method varies between 0 and 1, with a value of 1 indicating a perfect fit of the regression
line to the data. A value of 0.7 indicates that 70% of the data points are within the range of the regression line.
- MAE
In the domain of ML, absolute error denotes the magnitude of the disparity between the forecasted
value of an observation and its actual value. The mean absolute error quantifies the average size of errors in a
collection of forecasts, irrespective of their direction. It quantifies precision for variables that have a continuous
range of values. Typically, a lower MAE specifies better predictive performance of the model. Nonetheless,
the correlation between MAE values and the efficacy of a model is contingent upon the characteristics of the
data. It is calculated using (3).
∑𝑛 ̂|
𝑡=1|𝑌𝑡−𝑌𝑡
𝑀𝐴𝐸 = (3)
𝑛
1 2
𝐸= ∗ ∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑌𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑 − 𝑌) (4)
2𝑛
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Here, 𝐸 represents the model's error. The variable 𝑌𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑 represents the model's output for the given data, while
Y represents the expected output. 𝑛 denotes the quantity of data rows that we feed into the model. The purpose
of squaring the error is to eliminate any negative values. MSE applies a higher penalty to the error compared
to the MAE by squaring it.
(m) (n)
Figure 2. Response plots of various models: (a) linear, (b) fine tree, (c) medium tree, (d) coarse tree, (e) linear
SVM, (f) quadratic SVM, (g) cubic SVM, (h) medium Gaussian SVM, (i) coarse Gaussian SVM, (j) boosted
trees, (k) bagged trees, (l) narrow neural network, (m) medium neural network, and (n) wide neural network
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(m) (n)
Figure 3. Predictions by various models narrow neural network: (a) linear, (b) fine tree, (c) medium tree,
(d) coarse tree, (e) linear SVM, (f) quadratic SVM, (g) cubic SVM, (h) medium Gaussian SVM,
(i) coarse Gaussian SVM, (j) boosted trees, (k) bagged trees, (l) narrow neural network,
(m) medium neural network, and (n) wide neural network
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(m) (n)
Figure 4. Residual plots for various models: (a) linear, (b) fine tree, (c) medium tree, (d) coarse tree,
(e) linear SVM, (f) quadratic SVM, (g) cubic SVM, (h) medium Gaussian SVM, (i) coarse Gaussian SVM,
(j) boosted trees, (k) bagged trees, (l) narrow neural network, (m) medium neural network,
and (n) wide neural network
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Table 2 shows that the wide neural network model has the lowest RMSE value of 0.012576 during
validation, with the medium neural network model following closely behind. In both scenarios, the R-squared
value is 1. The narrow neural network model has the lowest MSE value of 0.00015816 and a MAE value of
0.0027143. Although this model can handle 35000 data points, it takes the longest training time of 1941.4
seconds. The training time for the coarse tree and medium tree models is significantly short, only 2.158 seconds
with a minimum leaf size of 36 and 2.2251 seconds with a minimum leaf size of 12. The quadratic SVM model
demonstrates the top performance among SVM models, with RMSE of 0.036556, MSE of 0.0013363, and
MAE of 0.030937. The duration of the training process is 41.118 seconds. After analyzing all the models, we
discovered that wide neural networks produced the most superior results with minimal effort. After calculating
RMSE and MSE values for all models, we concluded that the wide neural network produced the most optimal
result with the lowest value. Values for RMSE and MSE. Once the model is selected, it can be tuned for
optimized parameters. To avoid overfitting, five-fold cross-validation is performed in this work. The tuning
parameters are number of fully connected layers, and the regularization strength (ʎ) value. The higher value of
ʎ will result in underfitting of the plot and the lower value shows overfitting of the values. With three fully
connected layers, the first layer size, is 100 with the second-and-third-layer size 10. With these parameter
settings, the results obtained are shown in Table 3.
5. CONCLUSION
Electricity usage is influenced by a range of factors, including weather, time of day, holidays, and
social events. ML algorithms can comprehend complex relationships and create adaptable models that respond
to altering conditions. In this paper, an effective forecasting approach for the 33/11 kV substation at Wavi,
Nasik, India. 14 regression models are evaluated based on different performance indices initially. Among the
14 models studied, a wide neural network model is recommended based on RMSE, MSE, and MAE. Many
researchers have explored various regression models for forecasting. But the performance of neural network
models in regression remained unexplored many researchers have utilized SVM and GPR techniques.
The current study evaluates the precision of SVM, decision trees, and neural networks. The results show that
wide neural networks had the best performance, with a regression error of 0.01066, and an MSE of 0.00011363.
The study investigates the effectiveness of neural network models using the regression method. This implies
that wide neural networks have significant promise for precise electrical load forecasting. This implies that
wide neural networks have significant promise for precise electrical load forecasting. As research advances,
we expect to see the development of even more sophisticated ML models. Utilizing smart grids and
renewable energy sources will enhance forecasting accuracy and drive towards a more resilient and eco-
friendly energy future.
While neural networks offer significant advantages for tasks like electrical load forecasting, they also
come with several challenges. These challenges can impact their performance, usability, and integration into
real-world applications. Large and good quality data, high computational cost, are some of the challenges.
Overcoming challenges like Model complexity, interpretability, and training time requires a combination of
advanced techniques, robust infrastructure, and interdisciplinary expertise. Continuous research and
development in neural network methodologies, along with improvements in data management and computational
resources, are essential to mitigate these challenges and fully harness the potential of neural networks.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Authors thank Mr. S. S. Khandare, Chief Engineer MSEB Nasik Division India for his help in
acquiring site data and site visits for this research work.
FUNDING INFORMATION
No funding involved in this project.
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Name of Author C M So Va Fo I R D O E Vi Su P Fu
Sushama D. Wankhade ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Babasaheb R. Patil ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
DATA AVAILABILITY
Derived data supporting the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author [SDW],
on request.
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BIOGRAPHIES OF AUTHORS
Babasaheb R. Patil received the B.E. degree in Electrical Engineering from, Shivaji
University, India in 1989, the M.E. degree in Electrical Engineering (specialization in control
systems) from VJTI, University of Mumbai, India, in 1999 and, the Ph.D. degree in Electrical
Engineering from Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, University of Mumbai, India, in 2011.
Currently he is the Principal of Vishwaniketan’s Institute of Management Entrepreneurship and
Engineering Technology (ViMEET), Mumbai, India. He has more than 23 years of experience
in teaching engineering students and training industrial employees. His fields of interest are
biomedical engineering, electrical engineering, and nuclear instrumentation. He can be
contacted at email: [email protected].
Int J Appl Power Eng, Vol. 14, No. 2, June 2025: 264-274