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Chapter Eight: Project Management
8-1
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
3. 4.
Paths: 2→5→7
10 + 4 + 2 = 16
Activity Slack (weeks) 2→4→6→7
1 0 10 + 5 + 3 + 2 = 20*
2 1 1→3→6→7
3 0 7 + 6 + 3 + 2 = 18
4 10 5.
5 1 Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack
6 0 1 7 0 7 2 9 2
7 9 2 10 0 10 0 10 0
8 0 3 6 7 13 9 15 2
9 11 4 5 10 15 10 15 0
5 4 10 14 14 18 4
6 3 15 18 15 18 0
7 2 18 20 18 20 0
Paths: 1→3→7
4 + 8 + 2 = 14
1→3→6→8
4 + 8 + 5 + 6 = 23*
1→4→8
4 + 3 + 6 = 13 Critical path activities have no slack
2→5→8 Critical path = 2 − 4 − 6 − 7 = 20
7 + 9 + 6 = 22
2→9
7 + 5 = 12
8-2
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
6.
8-3
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
8.
Critical path = 2 − 4 − 10 − 13 − 14 − 17
Project completion time = 78 wk.
8-4
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
10.
8-5
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
12.
13.
Activity a m b t ES EF LS LF Slack σ2
1 4 8 12 8.00 0 8.00 3.66 11.66 3.66 1.77
2 6 10 15 10.16 0 10.16 0 10.16 0 2.25
3 2 10 14 9.33 0 9.33 8.33 17.66 8.33 4.00
5 3 6 9 6.00 8.00 14.00 11.66 17.66 3.66 1.00
4 1 4 13 5.00 8.00 13.00 22.33 27.33 14.33 4.00
6 3 6 18 7.50 10.16 17.66 10.16 17.66 0 6.25
7 2 8 12 7.66 9.33 17.00 22.33 30.00 13.00 2.76
8 9 15 22 15.16 17.66 32.83 21.66 36.83 4.00 4.67
9 5 12 21 12.33 17.66 30.00 17.66 30.00 0 7.08
10 7 20 25 18.66 13.00 31.66 27.33 46.00 14.33 9.00
11 5 6 12 6.83 30.00 36.83 30.00 36.83 0 1.35
12 3 8 20 9.16 36.83 46.00 36.83 46.00 0 8.01
8-6
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
e. Critical path = 2 − 6 − 9 − 11 − 12
f. Expected project completion time = 46 mo
σ2 = 25 mo
14.
8-7
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
15.
8-8
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
16.
Activity a m b t ES EF LS LF Slack σ2
1 1 2 6 2.50 0 2.50 0 2.50 0 0.694
2 1 3 5 3.00 2.50 5.50 7.50 10.50 5.00 0.436
3 3 5 10 5.50 2.50 8.00 2.50 8.00 0 1.35
4 3 6 14 6.83 2.50 9.33 2.66 9.50 0.16 3.35
7 1 1.5 2 1.50 8.00 9.50 8.00 9.50 0 0.026
6 2 3 7 3.50 8.00 11.50 9.00 12.50 1.00 0.689
5 2 4 9 4.50 8.00 12.50 10.50 15.00 2.50 1.35
8 1 3 5 3.00 9.50 12.50 9.50 12.50 0 0.436
9 1 1 5 1.66 12.50 14.16 15.33 17.00 2.83 0.436
10 2 4 9 4.50 12.50 17.00 12.50 17.00 0 1.35
11 1 2 3 2.00 12.50 14.50 15.00 17.00 2.50 0.109
12 1 1 1 1.00 17.00 18.00 17.00 18.00 0 0
e. Critical path = 1 − 3 − 7 − 8 − 10 − 12
f. Expected project completion time = 18 Mo
σ = 1.97 Mo
17.
18.
8-9
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Standard
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Deviation
Project 23 1.70
a 3 0 3 0 3 0 0.667
b 3.167 0 3.167 7.667 10.833 7.667 0.5
c 4.167 0 4.167 6.667 10.833 6.667 0.833
d 2.833 3 5.833 3 5.833 0 0.5
e 5 5.833 10.833 5.8333 10.833 0 1
f 1.833 10.833 12.667 15.167 17 4.333 0.167
g 5.833 10.833 16.667 10.833 16.667 0 0.833
h 3.833 12.667 16.5 17 20.833 4.333 0.5
i 4.167 16.667 20.833 16.667 20.833 0 0.5
j 2.167 20.833 23 20.833 23 0 0.5
Critical path = a − d − e − g − i − j = 23 days
What is the probability for the project to be completed in 21 days?
x−μ
Z=
σ
21 − 23
Z= = −1.18
1.7
P(x ≤ 21) = .119
19.
8-10
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Standard
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Deviation
Project 160.833 8.54
a 24.833 0 24.833 45.5 70.333 45.5 2.167
b 22.833 0 22.833 47.5 70.333 47.5 2.5
c 40.167 0 40.167 0 40.167 0 5.167
d 30.833 40.167 71 40.167 71 0 4.167
e 21 24.833 45.833 70.333 91.3333 45.5 3
f 17.167 71 88.167 71 88.167 0 2.5
g 11.833 88.167 100 88.167 100 0 2.167
h 19.167 45.833 65 91.333 110.5 45.5 2.5
i 15.167 45.833 61 95.333 110.5 49.5 2.167
j 10.5 100 110.5 100 110.5 0 1.167
k 28 110.5 138.5 110.5 138.5 0 3.333
l 10.167 110.5 120.667 128.333 138.5 17.8333 1.5
m 7 138.5 145.5 148 155 9.5 1
n 14.333 138.5 152.833 146.5 160.833 8 1.667
o 14.5 138.5 153 138.5 153 0 2.167
p 4.167 138.5 142.667 156.667 160.833 18.1667 0.5
q 5.833 145.5 151.333 155 160.833 9.5 0.5
r 7.833 153 160.833 153 160.833 0 0.833
Critical path: c − d − f − g − j − k − o − r
Project duration = 160.83
x−μ 180 − 160.83
Z= = = 2.24
σ 8.54
P(x ≤ 180 minutes) = .5000 + .4875 = .9875
20.
8-11
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Activity a m b t ES EF LS LF Slack σ2
a 1 2 3 2.00 0 2.00 7.33 9.33 7.33 1.09
b 2 5 8 5.00 0 5.00 0 5.00 0 1.00
c 1 3 5 3.00 0 3.00 8.66 11.66 8.66 0.436
d 4 10 25 11.50 2.00 13.50 9.33 20.83 7.33 12.25
e 3 7 12 7.16 2.00 9.16 13.66 20.83 11.66 2.25
f 10 15 25 15.83 5.00 20.83 5.00 20.83 0 6.25
g 5 9 14 9.16 3.00 12.16 11.66 20.83 8.66 2.25
h 2 3 7 3.50 13.50 17.00 22.66 26.16 9.16 0.689
i 1 4 6 3.83 20.83 24.66 22.33 26.16 1.50 .689
j 2 5 10 5.33 20.83 26.16 20.83 26.16 0 1.77
k 2 2 2 2 26.16 28.16 26.16 28.16 0 0
c. Critical path = b − f − j − k 21.
d. Expected project completion time
= 28.17 weeks.
σ = 3.00
e.
8-12
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
22.
8-13
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
23.
Activity a m b t ES EF LS LF Slack σ2
1 1 3 5 3.00 0 3.00 7.50 10.50 7.50 0.436
2 4 6 10 6.33 0 6.33 14.66 21.00 14.66 1.00
3 20 35 50 35.00 0 35.00 0 35.00 0 25.00
4 4 7 12 7.33 3.00 10.33 10.50 17.83 7.50 1.77
5 2 3 5 3.16 10.33 13.50 17.83 21.00 7.50 0.25
6 8 12 25 13.50 13.50 27.00 23.33 36.83 9.83 8.01
7 10 16 21 15.83 13.50 29.33 21.00 36.83 7.50 3.35
8 5 9 15 9.33 13.50 22.83 27.50 36.83 14.00 2.76
10 6 8 14 8.66 10.33 19.00 41.16 49.83 30.83 1.77
9 1 2 2 1.83 35.00 36.83 35.00 36.83 0 0.029
11 5 8 12 8.16 35.00 43.16 49.16 57.83 14.16 1.36
12 5 10 15 10.00 36.83 46.83 44.00 54.00 7.16 2.77
13 4 7 10 7.00 36.83 43.83 36.83 43.83 0 1.00
14 5 7 12 7.50 19.00 26.50 49.83 57.33 30.83 1.36
15 5 9 20 10.16 43.83 54.00 43.83 54.00 0 6.25
16 1 3 7 3.33 54.00 57.33 54.00 57.33 0 1.00
Critical path = 3 − 9 − 13 − 15 − 16
Expected project completion time = 57.33 days
σ2 = 33.279
σ = 5.77
x−μ 67 − 57.33
Z= =
σ 5.77
P(x ≤ 67) = 0.9535
24.
8-14
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack Variance
a 0 5.33 0 5.33 0 1
b 5.33 10.33 15 20 9.67 1
c 5.33 9.17 13.67 17.5 8.33 0.69
d 5.33 11.67 5.33 11.67 0 1
e 10.33 17.83 27.5 35 17.17 2.25
f 10.33 19.83 20 29.5 9.67 3.36
g 9.17 21.17 17.5 29.5 8.33 7.11
h 9.17 18.33 22.33 31.5 13.17 1.36
i 11.67 19.17 24 31.5 12.33 3.36
j 11.67 26 11.67 26 0 5.44
k 21.17 34 29.5 42.33 8.33 3.36
l 19.17 30 31.6 42.33 12.33 2.25
m 17.83 25.17 35 42.33 17.17 1.78
n 26 34.5 26 34.5 0 4.69
o 34.5 42.33 34.5 42.33 0 4.69
Critical path = a − d − j − n − o
Expected project completion time = 42.3 weeks
σ = 4.10
Since probability is 0.90, Z = 1.29
x − 42.3
129 =
4.10
x − 42.3 = 5.29
x = 47.59
To be 90 percent certain of delivering the part on time, RusTech should probably specify at least 47.59
or 48 weeks in the contract bid.
25.
8-15
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Activity Time Early Start Early Finish Late Start Late Finish Slack
a 15 0 15 0.0 15 0
b 8.83 0 8.83 64.5 73.33 64.5
c 24.16 15 39.16 15 39.16 0
d 19.5 39.16 58.66 39.16 58.66 0
e 8.16 39.16 47.33 51.5 59.66 12.33
f 13.66 47.33 61 59.66 73.33 12.33
g 20.16 61 81.16 73.33 93.5 12.33
h 25 58.66 83.66 58.66 83.66 0
i 14.66 58.66 73.33 78.16 92.83 19.5
j 23 58.66 81.66 61.83 84.83 3.16
k 8.66 81.66 90.33 84.83 93.5 3.16
l 7.16 83.66 90.83 83.66 90.83 0
m 5 73.33 78.33 92.83 97.83 19.5
n 4.33 90.83 94.66 93.5 97.83 3.16
o 7 90.83 97.83 90.83 97.83 0
p 5.5 90.83 95.83 113.16 118.66 22.83
q 20.833 97.83 118.66 97.83 118.66 0
8-16
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
26.
Paths: a−b−d−f
3 + 3 + 4 + 2 = 12
a−c−d−f
3 − 5 + 4 + 2 = 14*
a−c−e−f=
3 + 5 + 3 + 2 = 13
27.
8-17
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Activity Activity Early Early Late Late Standard
Number Time Start Finish Start Finish Slack Deviation
1 11.17 0.00 11.17 4.00 15.17 4.00 2.83
2 34.83 0.00 34.83 0.00 34.83 0.00 6.17
3 17.83 11.17 29.00 15.17 33.00 4.00 4.50
4 9.00 11.17 20.17 19.83 28.83 8.67 3.00
5 9.83 34.83 44.67 34.83 44.67 0.00 0.83
6 11.67 29.00 40.67 33.00 44.67 4.00 1.67
7 15.83 20.17 36.00 28.83 44.67 8.67 3.50
8 26.00 34.83 60.83 37.33 63.33 2.50 3.67
9 6.33 44.67 51.00 44.67 51.00 0.00 1.00
10 10.17 20.17 30.33 38.83 49.00 18.67 1.83
11 8.83 51.00 59.83 51.00 59.83 0.00 1.17
12 10.83 30.33 41.17 49.00 59.83 18.67 3.17
13 13.67 60.83 74.50 63.33 77.00 2.50 0.67
14 15.33 59.83 75.17 61.67 77.00 1.83 1.33
15 17.17 59.83 77.00 59.83 77.00 0.00 1.83
16 3.17 77.0 80.17 77.00 80.17 0.00 0.50
Critical path = 2 − 5 − 9 −11 − 15 − 16
Project duration = 80.17 months
Standard deviation = 6.69 months
P(x < 96) = .8315
28.
8-18
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Variance
a 7.17 0 7.17 0 7.17 0 0.69
b 18.00 0 18 0 33.67 15.67 7.11
c 10.17 0 10.17 27 37.17 27 1.36
d 22.17 0 22.17 15 37.17 15 12.25
e 30.00 7.17 37.17 7.17 37.17 0 0
f 8.67 37.17 45.83 37.17 45.83 0 1.78
g 7.00 45.83 52.83 45.83 52.83 0 1
h 21.33 18 39.33 37 58.33 19 7.11
i 20.17 18 38.17 33.67 53.83 15.67 3.36
j 13.33 52.83 66.17 52.83 66.17 0 4
k 7.83 39.33 47.17 58.33 66.17 19 0.69
l 12.33 38.17 50.5 53.83 66.17 15.67 1.78
m 10.17 37.17 47.33 55.83 66 18.67 1.36
n 7.33 45.83 53.17 58.83 66.17 13 1.78
o 18.33 66.17 84.5 66.17 84.5 0 2.78
p 7.17 84.5 91.67 84.5 91.67 0 0.69
q 8.17 66.17 74.33 83.5 91.67 17.33 1.36
r 7.00 66.17 73.17 84.67 91.67 18.5 1
s 27.83 45.83 73.67 63.83 91.67 18 6.25
t 17.50 47.33 64.83 66 83.5 18.67 4.69
u 8.17 64.83 73 83.5 91.67 18.67 1.36
The critical path is: a − e − f − g − j − o − p Activity “n,” send out acceptance letters,
Project duration = 91.667 days has ES = 45.83 (March 6) and LF = 66.17
(March 26), so it appears the club would
σ = 3.3082 meet the deadline of March 30 to send out
From January 20 to April 29 is 101 days. acceptance letters.
x−μ Activity “q,” send out schedules, has ES =
P ( x ≤ 101) =
Z 66.16 (March 26) and LS = 83.50 (April 14)
101 − 91.667 and LF = 91.67, so it seems likely the club
=
3.3082 would meet the deadline of April 15 for
= 2.82 sending out game schedules.
P ( x ≤ 101) = .9976
8-19
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
29.
Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack Variance
a 8.17 0 8.17 0.67 8.83 0.67 1.36
b 5.83 0 5.83 3.00 8.83 3.00 0.69
c 21.50 0 21.50 6.33 27.83 6.33 6.25
d 31.00 0 31.00 0.00 31.00 0 13.44
e 7.00 8.17 15.17 8.83 15.83 0.67 1.00
f 17.33 15.17 32.50 15.83 33.17 0.67 4.00
g 5.33 21.50 26.83 27.83 33.17 6.33 1.00
h 2.17 31.00 33.17 31.00 33.17 0 0.25
i 35.83 33.17 69.00 33.17 69.00 0 17.36
j 6.33 69.00 75.33 69.00 75.33 0 1.00
k 15.17 15.17 30.33 60.17 75.33 45.00 3.36
l 6.83 75.33 82.17 75.33 82.17 0 0.69
m 6.17 82.17 88.33 82.17 88.33 0 1.36
n 4.00 88.33 92.33 88.33 92.33 0 1.00
The “suggested” network is as follows:
Critical path = d − h − i − j − l − m − n
Expected project completion time = 92.33 days
σ = 5.93 days
90 − 92.33
P ( x ≤ 90 ) =
5.93
= −.39
P ( x ≤ 90 ) = .5000 − .1517
= .348
8-20
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
30.
8-21
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Critical path = a − h − l − m − n − o − s − w
Expected project duration (μ) = 126.67 days
σ = 8.14 days
x−μ
P ( x ≤ 150 days ) : Z =
σ
150 − 126.67
Z=
8.14
Z = 2.87
P ( x ≤ 150 ) = .5000 − .4979
= .9979
31. a)
8-22
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Crashing: f) Minimize Z = 40y12 + 50y14 + 70y13 +
80y24
1. Crash a 5 weeks; c − e becomes critical;
+ 30y34
cost = $200
subject to
2. Crash a and e 1 week; cost = $70
y12 ≤ 12
3. Crash a, b and e 4 weeks; cost = $480
y14 ≤ 4
d) Critical paths: a − d, b and c − e = 20 weeks y13 ≤ 7
Total crash cost = $750 y24 ≤ 4
e) Minimize Z = x4 y34 ≤ 6
subject to
x1 + 20 − y12 ≤ x2
x2 − x1 ≥ 20
x1 + 14 − y13 ≤ x3
x3 − x1 ≥ 14
x1 + 24 − y14 ≤ x4
x4 − x1 ≥ 24
x2 + 10 − y24 ≤ x4
x4 − x2 ≥ 10
x3 + 11 − y34 ≤ x4
x4 − x3 ≥ 11
x4 ≤ 20
xi , xj ≥ 0
xi,xj,yij ≥ 0
32. a)
8-23
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
33. Minimize Z = x6
Total crash cost = $3,200
subject to
1. Crash a 3 wks; $900
x2 − x1 ≥ 10
2. Crash a and b 5 wks; $2,300 x3 − x1 ≥ 7
Critical paths: a − d − h and b − e − h = 28 wks. x4 − x2 ≥ 6
c) Minimize Z = x6 x4 − x3 ≥ 5
subject to x5 − x3 ≥ 4
x2 − x1 ≥ 16 x5 − x4 ≥ 3
x3 − x1 ≥ 14 x6 − x5 ≥ 2
x4 − x2 ≥ 8 xi, xj ≥ 0
x5 − x2 ≥ 5 The solution is x1 = 0, x2 = 7, x3 = 10,
x5 − x3 ≥ 4 x4 = 15, x5 = 18, x6 = 20.
x6 − x3 ≥ 6 34. Minimize Z = x9
x6 − x4 ≥ 10 subject to
x6 − x5 ≥ 15 x2 − x1 ≥ 8
xi, xj ≥ 0 x3 − x1 ≥ 6
d) The minimum project duration is x4 − x1 ≥ 3
22 weeks. x5 − x2 ≥ 0
Minimize Z = 300y12 + 160y13 + 100y24
+ 700y25 + 750y35 + 400y36 x6 − x2 ≥ 5
+ 500y46 + 600y56
x5 − x3 ≥ 3
subject to
x5 − x4 ≥ 4
y12 ≤ 8
x7 − x5 ≥ 7
y13 ≤ 5
x7 − x8 ≥ 0
y24 ≤ 2
x8 − x5 ≥ 4
y25 ≤ 1
x8 − x4 ≥ 2
y35 ≤ 2
x9 − x6 ≥ 4
y36 ≤ 2
x9 − x7 ≥ 9
y46 ≤ 3
xi, xj ≥ 0
y56 ≤ 5
The solution is x1 = 0, x2 = 9, x3 = 6, x4 =
x1 + 16 − y12 ≤ x2 3, x5 = 9, x6 = 14, x7 = 16, x8 = 16, x9 = 25.
x1 + 14 − y13 ≤ x3
35. a) Minimize Z = x5
x2 + 8 − y24 ≤ x4
subject to
x2 + 5 − y25 ≤ x5
x2 − x1 ≥ 8
x3 + 4 − y35 ≤ x5 x3 − x1 ≥ 10
x3 + 6 − y36 ≤ x6 x3 − x2 ≥ 5
x4 + 10 − y46 ≤ x6 x4 − x2 ≥ 3
x5 + 15 − y56 ≤ x6 x4 − x3 ≥ 6
x6 ≤ 22 x5 − x3 ≥ 3
xi,xj,yij ≥ 0 x5 − x4 ≥ 4
xi, xj ≥ 0
The solution is x1 = 0, x2 = 8, x3 = 13,
x4 = 19, x5 = 23.
8-24
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
b) y34 ≤ 2
Total Allowable y35 ≤ 0
Crash Time Crash cost y45 ≤ 1
Activity (i–j) (weeks) per week ($)
x1 + 8 − y12 ≤ x2
1 1–2 3 100
x1 + 10 − y13 ≤ x3
2 1–3 3 50
x2 + 5 − y23 ≤ x3
3 2–3 2 200
x2 + 3 − y24 ≤ x4
4 2–4 2 100
x3 + 6 − y34 ≤ x4
5 3–4 2 75
x3 + 3 − y35 ≤ x5
6 3–5 0 0
x4 + 4 − y45 ≤ x5
7 4–5 1 200
x5 ≤ 15
c) Minimize Z = 100y12 + 50y13 + 200y23 xi,xj,yij ≥ 0
+ 100y24 + 75y34 + 0y35
+ 200y45
subject to
y12 ≤ 3
y13 ≤ 3
y23 ≤ 2
y24 ≤ 2
The solution is Z = $1,150, y12 = 3, y13 = 2,
y23 = 2, y24 = 0, y34 = 2, y45 = 1, y35 = 0, x1 = 0,
x2 = 5, x3 = 8, x4 = 12, x5 = 15.
8-25
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
36.
Normal Crash Normal Crash Normal Crash Crashing
Activity time time cost cost cost/day by cost
a 9 7 4,800 6,300 750 2 1,500
b 11 9 9,100 15,500 3,200 0 0
c 7 5 3,000 4,000 500 0 0
d 10 8 3,600 5,000 700 2 1,400
e 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
f 5 3 1,500 2,000 250 0 0
g 6 5 1,800 2,000 200 1 200
h 3 3 0 0 0 0 0
i 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
j 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
k 8 6 5,000 7,000 1,000 2 2,000
Project completion time = 33
Normal cost = 28,800
Minimum project completion time = 26
Crash cost = 33,900
Critical path: a − d − g − k.
Crashing cost = $5,100
Total network cost = $33,900
37. 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12
Cost of crashing = $2,633,333
8-26
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Activity a m b t ES EF LS LF Slack Std. dev.
1 2 4 7 4.16 0 4.16 0 4.16 0 0.83
2 4 5 8 5.33 0 5.33 3.50 8.83 3.50 0.66
5 1 2 4 2.16 4.16 6.33 6.66 8.83 2.50 0.50
3 3 5 10 5.50 4.16 9.66 6.66 12.16 2.50 1.16
4 1 3 8 3.50 4.16 7.66 4.16 7.66 0 1.16
6 2 4 7 4.16 7.66 11.83 7.66 11.83 0 0.83
7 1 3 5 3.00 7.66 10.66 10.16 13.16 2.50 0.66
8 2 3 4 3.00 9.66 12.66 12.16 15.16 2.50 0.33
10 2 3 6 3.33 11.83 15.16 11.83 15.16 0 0.66
11 1 2 3 2.00 10.66 12.66 13.16 15.16 2.50 0.33
9 2 6 12 6.33 6.33 12.66 8.83 15.16 2.50 1.66
12 1 5 12 5.5 6.33 11.83 9.66 15.16 3.33 1.83
Critical path = 1 − 4 − 6 − 10
Expected project completion time = 15.17 days
σ = 1.79
x−μ 18 − 15.17
Z= = = 1.58
σ 1.79
P(x ≤ 18) = 0.9429
8-27
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Early Early Late Late
Activity Time Start Finish Start Finish Slack Std. dev.
a 4.16 0 4.16 0.0 4.16 0.0 0.5
b 3.16 4.16 7.33 4.16 7.33 0.0 0.5
c 3.83 7.33 11.16 7.83 11.66 0.5 0.5
d 2.16 7.33 9.5 33.83 36 26.5 0.5
e 2 7.33 9.33 7.33 9.33 0.0 0.33
f 3.83 11.16 15 11.66 15.5 0.5 0.5
g 3.16 9.33 12.5 9.33 12.5 0.0 0.5
h 4.16 9.33 13.5 13.5 17.66 4.16 0.83
i 2.83 15 17.83 21 23.83 6 0.5
j 2.16 15 17.16 15.5 17.66 0.5 0.5
k 5.16 12.5 17.66 12.5 17.66 0.0 0.83
l 6.5 17.83 24.33 23.83 30.33 6 0.83
m 8.33 17.66 26 17.66 26 0.0 1
n 3.33 24.33 27.66 30.33 33.66 6 0.66
o 2.33 27.66 30 33.66 36 6 0.66
p 3.5 30 33.5 36 39.5 6 0.83
q 4.16 26 30.16 26 30.16 0 0.5
r 6.33 33.5 39.83 39.5 45.83 6 1
s 5.83 30.16 36 35 40.83 4.83 1.5
t 4.33 30.16 34.5 30.16 34.5 0 1
u 3.33 30.16 33.5 31.17 34.5 1 0.66
v 6.33 34.5 40.83 34.5 40.83 0 1
w 5 40.83 45.83 40.83 45.83 0 1
x 2.83 40.83 43.66 43 45.83 2.16 0.5
Project completion time = 45.83
Project standard deviation = 2.40
Critical Path for Moore Contractors
Critical path: a − b − e − g − k − m − q − t − v − w
Notice that the expected completion time is 45.83 days which is very close to the realtor’s due date
for completion.
The probability of finishing in 45 days is 0.3647
36.47% is not a very high probability that the contractor will complete a house within 45 days; thus
the Moores should probably inflate their bid.
8-28
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observance is in the spirit, and not in the letter; in the direction of
our thoughts and desires without hindrance from the work-day world
to God; in the feeling of rest—of Sabbath calm—of holy peace and
joy—which has possessed us, and made our Sabbath more a thing
to be measured by the Spirit’s instruments, and registered in the
Spirit’s record, than by the clock. And if a man has no homage to
render, no spiritual good to gain, because he desires none, what
does he gain, what does the Church gain, what does the world gain,
if he be compelled in some sort to recognize it, by being debarred
from a pursuit which would at any other time be beneficial to him;
provided always that his liberty be no detriment to those who have
better ways of spending the day? Bring him to church to hear the
Gospel! By all means. I would that all places of pleasure were shut
up on Sabbaths, because men felt that they had better work on
hand than to visit them. But if the man says, “I will not enter your
churches—I hate them;”—we ask, where is the gain to him, to any
one, in saying, “There are the ale-houses, there are the tea-gardens
—you are a sinner for going, but there they are; there is, moreover,
a train specially provided by Government for you to travel; but this
Crystal Palace, so grand and beautiful, we can and will debar you
from. Whatever good it has to offer you, you shall not get it on
Sabbath days!” It seems very foolish to confess that all attempts to
make the masses devote the hours of the Sabbath to devotion are
futile—that no serious limit can be set successfully to the efforts of
private speculators to tempt men to demoralizing Sabbath
desecration—and yet, when a scheme is set on foot which aims at
remedying in some sort the mischief, by elevating instead of
degrading men, because it is so good and so complete as to be of
national importance, its progress is barred at once.
This is the true secret of much serious opposition. The national
character of this act is felt by many to be the chief objection to it.
Now let us understand what the word “national” implies. There is,
no doubt, a very true sense in which a Government represents a
nation. But it may represent truly or falsely; if falsely, does God
regard it as the representative of the national mind and will? If the
nation is bent on not keeping the Sabbath in the highest manner,
would the dictum of the Government against all other ways of
spending it, constitute a national Sabbath observance? All that we
could gain in that case would be an appearance—an appearance
how awfully contradicted in Clerkenwell, Rag-fair, Lambeth, Chelsea,
Greenwich, and in every place of dense population or public resort.
And does God care for this appearance? Is it a cloak that hides any
thing from his eye? Think you, that it seems to Him a thing for the
sake of which it is worth while to sacrifice one instrument which may
help man out of the pit of brutal degradation which the Sabbaths of
this metropolis disclose to us, yawning in the very heart of the
wisest, the greatest, the richest, the most godly city in the world?
Many remember fondly what Sabbaths once were, and willingly shut
their eyes to the change. In spite of the decent appearance of our
streets—and God forbid that we should ever lose it!—the reality is
too decisively the other way, for us to hope that a Government Act
can give to us a character before man or before God. The national
thought and feeling utters itself every year more loudly. It will not
help us, while the fire is raging, to batten down the hatches, and
step the deck as trimly as if the cry of alarm had never been heard.
We may shut the Crystal Palace and be no nearer a national Sabbath
keeping, nay, farther from it,—as plagues pent up in the kilns of
their own corruption but taint the air more widely, and cover with
their black shadow a broader surface of the land.
Some fear that the act of the Legislature will add a sanction to
Sabbath breaking by which many will be emboldened. Alas! the
balance is not so tremulous that the weight of Government in either
scale will make it kick the beam. It is to be feared that many will
frequent the Crystal Palace on Sunday, who otherwise would be in
the House of God. This is, no doubt, a very serious matter, but a
simply preventive legislation will not remedy the moral mischief out
of which the evil springs. For such, no system of safeguards can be
successful. Men are beyond the reach of protection, who would use
the term “national sanction” as the cloak of sin.
Thus much on the opposition arising from views of the nature of
Sabbath observance and its claims. We must now pass on to notice
a class of objections founded on the nature of the Exhibition itself,
and its probable influence on the heart, mind, and manners of men.
Many expect that men will get more harm from the accessories than
good from the thing itself. Here, again, much is to be said on either
side. There will, doubtless, be beer-houses, tea-gardens, skittle-
grounds, and all the apparatus of demoralization (though the
licensing magistrates may do much to prevent it); but may we not
fairly expect that large numbers will spend, on their travelling and
admission, money which, if they stayed at home, would be drunk or
played away; that many will take their families with them, which is
always an elevating thing to the poor; that some, at any rate, who
go for pleasure, may find deeper thoughts awakened, and turn with
disgust from grosser amusements which, in other states of mind,
would delight them; and that, on the whole, an immense amount of
vice and sensuality will be spared, though, alas, there will be enough
to waken sorrow in all good men. There will just be a battle
between the interest which the Crystal Palace will awaken, and
meaner, grosser things. Will the baser triumph, when both are fairly
brought to bear on men? There is enough in the history of public
exhibitions, during the last twenty years, to rebuke our faithlessness
and teach us hope. My whole argument rests on the fact of existing
and increasing neglect of worship and church ordinances on the
Sabbath day. For how much of the existing disaffection the Church
is responsible, God only knoweth; but, certainly, obstruction and
prevention come from us with singularly bad grace. Attraction is our
one great power. What we can attract and win, we keep. What we
constrain we cannot attach, and our chains are but ropes of sand.
One fruitful source of Sabbath desecration is the unnatural condition
in which men and women are compelled to live, in the heart of our
great cities. Every thing around them blights the gentlest and most
gracious thoughts and feelings of our nature. They live from hand
to mouth—they snatch at each day’s existence—they have no rest,
no sense of possession in the present, no hope for the future. They
are out of reach of true rest on the Sabbath. It is mere mockery to
talk about it. Keep them at home, and the Sabbath cannot be a
delight, except when an enthusiastic spirit can wholly emancipate
itself from circumstances. God’s ordinance seems to them a
delusion and a snare. Picture the miserable houses, the foul air, the
dirty, damp, mouldy walls, the reeking smoke, the pestilential
exhalations from the open sewer, the cries of drunkenness, and the
curses of blasphemy, amidst which we expect half a million of men
in our metropolis to pass the Sabbath. No wonder that they fly from
it, fly to the ale-house, and drown there their disgust and despair.
They are hardly within reach of our Christian instructions,—alas, for
the seed sown in such stony ground! The circumstances of their life
expose it to fearful peril; a broad change must pass over the moral
and mental condition of these people before, as a class, they can be
expected to receive gladly the Gospel and bring forth its fruits. Let
them get out to something they will care for—something that will
teach them—God’s clear air and sunshine, the violet odour, balmy to
them as the breath of Paradise, the bird song, the breeze among the
boughs, the fresh clean meadows, the sparkling wreathing river, and
they are at once within reach of better and holier thoughts. Or if no
thoughts come to them, for impressions shape themselves into
thoughts but slowly in minds inept, yet a genial refreshing dew has
passed over their spirits—they feel that the city life, with its squalor
and misery, is man’s work not God’s,—and at last, though the
thought may be long in ripening, they may come to think that it may
be true after all, as the Bible says, that in God the poor man has a
defender and keeper, and a remedy for all the ills which sin and
selfishness have entailed upon the world.
Those who see much of this class will be deeply convinced that we
have no means of reaching them at present as a class, though the
direct and earnest attention of the Church, in all its branches, to
their condition and needs, is a most hopeful symptom; but looking at
this great class, and their relation to society—so benighted, so
withered in soul, as to resist sternly the Divinest influences—I
confess it seems to me a terrible responsibility to keep them away,
on any day, from anything which would do them even a little good.
It is but little that we can hope, and that little will be slowly
realized. With sorrow we open the way for them—sorrow, that they
will not choose a more excellent way. We believe in God’s high
purpose in the institution of the Sabbath day, and fling wide the
gates of our sanctuaries. But if men pass scornfully or scowlingly,
let us at least be thankful, tearfully thankful, if they are not passing
by our doors to dens of vice and crime. Let us not tell them, If you
do not come here, the Lord does not care where you go. Let us tell
them that He follows them everywhere with His care,—that He has
spread abroad the expanse of nature for them,—that He has given
art, science, commerce, and history to man;—it may chance that
many, hearing this, may desire to know more of Him, and learn from
himself what He means by a Sabbath day.
It may be said, and with justice, that the majority of the frequenters
of the Crystal Palace will hardly be of the class which has been
described. Not the poorest, but the class above the poorest—the
well-paid artizans, the shopmen and shopwomen, the mercantile
clerks and the kindred classes will furnish at any rate a large
proportion of the visitors to this Exhibition. It is worth one’s while to
consider thoughtfully whether we are prepared to apply the same
rigid rule, as regards the measure of time to be devoted to public
services on the Lord’s day, to the poor workman and shopman
confined to the hot dense air of the factory or shop during all the
disposable hours of the week, and living probably in a home but
sparely visited by the light and air of heaven,—between which home
and the sanctuary he ought, according to the present theory, to
divide his time on the Sabbath,—and to the rich man who, in the
afternoon or evening, can walk in his own garden, pluck the fruit of
his own vine and fig-tree, ventilate his lungs in the purest and
balmiest air, and, being refreshed in body, can go down to God’s
house in comfort and refresh his soul. We must beware, lest we
make the lot of the poor more bitter by the yoke of our law of
ordinances which are in themselves beautiful and benignant, lest he
take the name of his God in vain. Many hold forth a rest day in the
week as the remedy. This simply means, in most cases, the sacrifice
of four or five shillings a week. Six days’ labour can hardly supply
the needs of a poor man’s family, especially its higher needs. The
loss of some shillings is certainly the loss of some books, some
schooling, some innocent amusements for his children, and is, not
seldom, the loss of bread.
The last, and in the estimation of a large number of religious men,
the most serious aspect of the question which I will refer to is this:
—“The opening of the Crystal Palace,” it is said, “is but the door to
the opening of the national institutions, the theatres, and, finally, the
factories and shops on the Sabbath.”
But there is evidently a limiting principle at work, recognized by the
public, and expressed by the Government. The limitation of the
hours, the clause against the sale of spirituous liquors, and the close
of that portion of the building which would involve actual handiwork,
are recognized by the public at once as right and seemly. There is a
public feeling in England which will care for these things, which are
supposed to be imperilled; a public feeling which, during the next
years, it will be the office of the Church to nurture and unfold. If
that public feeling fail us, then, unquestionably, our condition will be
most serious; and the question must be argued, how far a
Government may maintain, in the face of public feeling, a system of
preventions and prohibitions? That it has the right, up to a certain
point, most people feel; that there is a point beyond which it is most
unsafe, all are agreed. But that point will never be reached in
England, while the Church is faithful to her country and to her Lord.
If that point ever be reached, on us will be the sin. Ministers of the
Church of Christ! there has been too long a schism in the army. The
shepherds have been battling for precedence and prerogative, and
the sheep have strayed. The call to us now is for work; work—not
by platform crudities, vanities, and falsities; not by protests,
preventions, petitions, and bills of spiritual rights;—but by earnest,
manful, godly, spiritual effort to make the Gospel known and felt as
the power of God unto salvation. The power of the Gospel is not felt
as it once was. Admirable sermons are preached, and with
admirable emphasis and theatric art, but power does not go forth
from them. Men look at us, hear us, admire us, but our prehensile
power is gone. We do not lay hold on men. We have dealt too
much in a religion of exclusions and negations. We need to take
hold on men, and say,—“We have good news—good news of God.”
The cry, “Good news! light! bread! life!” should be heard more loudly
from our pulpits. We should not lack hearers, if we could make
them feel that we had good news to tell. Were our Master among
us at this crisis, He would not work by protests and prohibitions.
Wherever the people were, there would He be, vehement against
organized hypocritic wickedness, but patient, gentle, merciful to the
souls gone astray in their darkness and misery. Oh, that our hearts
could catch that tone of touching human tenderness wherewith He
would address this weary and burdened generation, “Come unto me,
all ye that are weary and heavy laden, and I will give you rest.” But
He is with us alway, and, by ways that we little discern and
sympathize with, He may be leading this generation to himself. Let
us be humble-hearted and full of charity; let us work, work harder
and more lovingly, with more oneness of heart and voice, to make
men feel that it is God’s good news to them which we have in
charge, and then will our Sabbaths return to us, fresh and pure,
beautiful and blest, as that George Herbert wrote of.
“SUNDAY.
“O day most calm, most bright,
The fruit of this, the next world’s bud,
Th’ indorsement of supreme delight,
Writ by a friend, and with his blood;
The couch of time; care’s balm and bay:
The week were dark, but for thy light:
Thy torch doth show the way.
“Man had straight forward gone
To endless death: but thou dost pull
And turn us round to look on one,
Whom, if we were not very dull,
We could not choose but look on still;
Since there is no place so alone,
The which he doth not fill.
“The Sundays of man’s life,
Threaded together on time’s string,
Make bracelets to adorn the wife
Of the eternal glorious King.
On Sunday heaven’s gate stands ope;
Blessings are plentiful and rife,
More plentiful than hope.
“The rest of our creation
Our great Redeemer did remove
With the same shake, which at his passion
Did th’ earth and all things with it move.
As Samson bore the doors away,
Christ’s hands, though nail’d, wrought our salvation,
And did unhinge that day.
“The brightness of that day
We sullied by our foul offence:
Wherefore that robe we cast away,
Having a new at his expense,
Whose drops of blood paid the full price,
That was requir’d to make us gay,
And fit for Paradise.
“Thou art a day of mirth:
And where the week-days trail on ground,
Thy flight is higher, as thy birth.
O let me take thee at the bound,
Leaping with thee from sev’n to seven,
Till that we both, being toss’d from earth,
Fly hand in hand to heaven!”
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