Addis Ababa University

School of public health

Group assignment on biostatics

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1. Among 200 patients at a Tikur Anbessa hospital. 40 of them are cardiac patients, 100 of them
are cancer patients and 60 of them are diabetic patients. The hospital wants to give free medical
service for some patients.

A) What is the probability that 5 cardiac and 10 cancer patients are given free medical treatment?

B) What is the probability that 2 cardiac, 5 cancer patients and 4 diabetic patients are given free
medical treat

Solutions: we use combinations rule of counting to find the probabilities since there is no matter
about order.

A). Given

n = 200, r =5+10=15, n1=40, r1 =10, n2=100, r2=10, n3=60, r3=0

P = C(n1,r1) *C(n2,r2)*C(n3,r3)/ C(n,r)= =0.000778

B). Given;

n=200, r=11, n1=40, r1=2, n2=100, r2=5, n3=60, r3=4

P=C(n1,r1) *C(n2,r2)*C(n3,r3)/C(n,r) = =0.0738

3. Let A and B be two events associated with an experiment and suppose that P (A) =0.4 while P
(AUB) =0.7. Let P (B) =P

a) For what choice of P are A and B mutually exclusive?

Solution: Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if and only they satisfy:

 A ꓵ B =( )
 P(A ꓴ B)=P(A) +P(B)
 So ,p(A U B) = P(A) +P(B) =0.7
=P=0.3

4. It is known that 20% of all persons given a certain sedative drug get very drowsy within 2
minutes. Find the probabilities that among 14 persons given this drug,

a) At most 2

b) At least 5
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c) 2, 3 or 4 will get very drowsy within 2 minutes.

Solution: To solve the given problem, we can use the binomial distribution formula,
because the situation involves a fixed number of independent trials (n=14 persons), each with
two possible outcomes of drowsy or not drowsy. The probability of success (getting drowsy) is p
= 0.20 and the probability of failure is q = 1 - p = 0.80.

The binomial distribution formula:

P(X) = , where q=1-p

a) At most 2 persons get very drowsy within 2 minutes:

To find the probability that at most 2 persons get very drowsy, we need to calculate:

P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2), and we should calculate for each variable:

 P(X=0)= 14C0 × (0.2)^0 × (0.8)^14 = 1 × 1 × 0.04398 = 0.044

 P(X=1)= 14C1 × (0.2)^1 × (0.8)^13 = 14 × 0.2 × 0.05497 = 0.154
 P(X=2)= 14C2 × (0.2)^2 × (0.8)^12 = 91× 0.04 × 0.06872 = 0.250

P(X ≤ 2) = 0.044 + 0.154 + 0.250 = 0.448

ANSWER: The probability of at most 2 people getting drowsy within 2 minutes is 0.448

b) At least 5 persons get very drowsy within 2 minutes:

To find the probability that at least 5 persons get very drowsy, we need to calculate:

P(X ≥ 5) = 1 - P(X < 5) = 1 - P(X ≤ 4),

P(X ≤ 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)

Since we already have the values of P(X=0), P(X=1) and P(X=2), now we should calculate for
P(X=3) and P(X=4)

 P(X=3)= 14C3 × (0.2)^3 × (0.8)^11 = 364 × 0.008 × 0.08590 = 0.25

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 P(X=4)= 14C4 × (0.2)^4 × (0.8)^10 = 1001 × 0.0016 × 0.10737 = 0.172

P(X ≥ 5) = 1 - P(X < 5)

= 1 - P(X ≤ 4),

=1 ‐ (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4))

= 1 ‐ (0.044 + 0.154 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.172) = 1-(0.87)

P(X ≥ 5) = 0.13

ANSWER: The probability of at least 5 people getting drowsy within 2 minutes is 0.13

c) 2, 3 or 4 will get very drowsy within 2 minutes:

This means that P(X = 2 or X = 3 or X = 4)

Simply: P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4), and from previous calculation result, we can substitute
the values and get the final result:

P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) = 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.172 = 0.672

ANSWER: The probability of 2, 3 or 4 will get very drowsy within 2 minutes is 0.672

5. An allergist claims that 50% of the patients she tests are allergic to some type of weed. What
is the probability that

a. Exactly 3 of her next 4 patients are allergic to weeds?

b. None of her next 4 patients are allergic to weeds?

a) This is a binomial probability problem, where:

n = (number of trials) = 4 (patients)

x = (number of successes) = 3 (allergic patients)

p = (probability of success) = 0.5 (50% allergy rate)

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q = ( probability of failure) = 1 - p = 0.5

The binomial probability formula is: P(X = x) = C(n, x) * p^x * q^(n-x)

Where C(n, x) is the number of combinations of n items taken x at a time, calculated as n! /

(x!(n-x)!)

Calculation:

C(4, 3) = 4! / (3!1!) = 4

P(X = 3) = 4 * (0.5)^3 * (0.5)^(4-3) = 4 * 0.125 * 0.5 = 0.25.

Answer=0.25

Therefore, the probability of exactly 3 out of 4 patients being allergic is 25%.

b) Probability of none of the 4 patients being allergic:

Here, x = 0 (no allergic patients)

Calculation:

C(4, 0) = 4! / (0!4!) = 1

P(X = 0) = 1 * (0.5)^0 * (0.5)^(4-0) = 1 * 1 * 0.0625 = 0.0625

Answer=0.0625

Therefore, the probability of none of the 4 patients being allergic is 6.25%.

6. In three rural area projects, 30 percent of children under six years of age were found with
severe forms of under nutrition. If only 3 children were selected at random from the three rural
areas, what is the probability of 3, 2, 1 and none (0) being severely undernourished?

Answer

Given

The probability of a child being severely undernourished

P (un)=0.3
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The number of children selected is

n=3

Required

The probability of selecting 3, 2, 1 and none (0) being severely undernourished children

Solution

This is a binomial probability problem.

The binomial probability formula is

P(x)=(n,x)p^x(1−p)^n-x

𝑝 is the probability of success on a single trial.

𝑛 is the number of trials.

𝑥 is the number of successes.

We can find the combination of (n, x) using the formula

C(n, x) = n!/ (n-x)!x!

Using the binomial probability formula

Step 1. Calculate the probability of 3 undernourished children.

P(3)=(3, 3)(0.3)^3(1−0.3)^3−3

P(3)=1⋅(0.3)^3⋅(0.7)^0

(3)=0.027

Step 2. Calculate the probability of 2 undernourished children.

P(2)=(3, 2)(0.3)^2(1−0.3)^3−2

(2)=3⋅(0.3)^2⋅(0.7)^1
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(2)=0.189

Step 3. Calculate the probability of 1 undernourished child.

P(1)=(3, 1)(0.3)^1(1−0.3)^3−1

(1)=3⋅(0.3)^1⋅(0.7)^2

(1)=0.441

Step 4. Calculate the probability of 0 undernourished children.

P(0)=(3, 0)(0.3)^0(1−0.3)^3−0

P(0)=1⋅(0.3)^0⋅(0.7)^3

(0)=0.343

In summary, the probability of finding 3, 2, 1 or 0 severely undernourished children is

P(x=3) = 0.027

P(x=2) = 0.441

P((x=1) = 0.189

P(x=0) = 0.343

Verification

As a check, these probabilities must add to 1.

0.027+0.189+0.441+0.343=1

This confirms that all the results are calculated true.

7. Suppose that in a certain malarias area past experience indicates that the probability of a
person with a higher fever will be positive for malaria is 0.7. Consider 3 randomly selected
patients (with high fever) in that same area.

a. What is the probability that no patient will be positive for malaria?

b. What is the probability that exactly one patient will be positive for malaria?
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d. What is the probability that exactly two patient will be positive for malaria?

e. What is the probability that all patients will be positive for malaria?

Solutions: this about binomial distributions

Given: p=0.7, q=0.3 and n=3

𝑛! 3!
a) P(x=0) = (𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 ) = (3−0)!∗0! (0.70∗ 0.33 ) = 0.027
(𝑛−𝑥)!𝑥!

𝑛! 3!
b) P(x=1) = (𝑛−𝑥)!𝑥! (𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 ) = (3−1)!∗1! (0.71∗ 0.32 ) = 0.189

𝑛! 3!
d) P(x=2) = (𝑛−𝑥)!𝑥! (𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 ) = (3−2)!∗2! (0.72∗ 0.31 ) = 0.441

𝑛! 3!
e) P(x=3) = (pxqn-x) = (𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 ) = (0.73∗ 0.30 ) = 0.343
(𝑛−𝑥)!𝑥! (3−3)!∗3!

8. The daily number of new registrations of Nobel Corona Virus is 2.2 on average, what is the
probability of

A) Getting no new case B) Getting 1 case

C) Getting 2 cases D) Getting 3 cases E) Getting 4 cases

Solutions: This is about Poisson distribution which is often used for counting the number of
events that happen within a fixed interval, given that the events occur with a known constant
mean rate and independently of each other.

 So probability is given by: p(x) =

Where: λ = 2.2(the average number of cases)

 X is the number of cases (what we want to find)

 e is Euler's number (≈2.71828)

 P(X) is probability of case any X

A) X= 0, p(x) = = =0.1108
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 Probability of getting no new cases is 0.111

B) X=1, p(x) = = =0.2434

 Probability of getting one new cases is 0.243

C) X=2, p(x) = = =0.2677

 Probability of getting two new cases is 0.268

D) X=3, p(x) = = =0.1964

 Probability of getting three new cases is 0.196

E) X=4, p(x) = = =0.1080

 Probability of getting four new cases is 0.108

9. It is known that bacteria of a certain kind occur in water at a rate 2 bacteria per cubic
centimeter of water. Assuming that the phenomenon obeys a Poisson probability law, what is the
probability that a sample of two cube centimeters of water will contain

a. No bacteria?

b. At least one bacteria?

 First, let’s find the expected number of bacteria in the sample, which is Poisson’s
parameter λ.
λ=2 bacteria/cm3×2 cm3=4
 Then, we use Poisson probability mass function.
Pr (X=x)=
a. Probability of no bacteria.
x=0
𝑒 −4 ∗40
Pr(X=0) = = 0.0183
0!
Thus, the probability of finding no bacteria in a sample of two cube centimeter of water is
approximately 0.0183

b. Probability of at least one bacteria.

X ≥1
This can be done by finding the complement of having zero bacteria.
Pr(X ≥1) = 1-Pr(X=0)
= 1-0.0183
=0.9817
Therefore, the probability of finding at least one bacteria is approximately 0.9817.
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10. The number of monthly breakdowns of a microscope is a random variable having a Poisson
distribution withl = 1.8 . Find the probabilities that this microscope will function for a month

a. Without a breakdown

b) With only one breakdown.

Given λ=1.8 Required a) p(x=o) b) p(x=1)

e=2.71828
x=0 (a)
x=1(b)

Solutions: use Poisson distribution with λ = 1.8 .

a) x=0 , p (x=0) = = ≈0.1653

b) x=1 , p (x=1) = = ≈ 0.2975

11. The number of telephone calls that arrive at a phone exchange in need of Ambulance is often
modelled as a Poisson distribution. Assuming that there are 10 calls per hour, find the
probabilities that there will be

a) Fewer than 3 calls per hour

b) 15 calls in two hours

c) 5 calls in 30 minutes.

Solutions: use Poisson distribution withl = 10 call/hour.

𝑒 −10 ∗100 𝑒 −10 ∗101 𝑒 −10 ∗102

a) X <3 , l = 10 call: p (x<3) = + + = 0.0027
0! 1! 2!

𝑒 −20 ∗2015
b) x=15 , l = 10 call/hr * 2hr = 20 call: p (x=20) = = = 0.052
15!

𝑒 −5 ∗55
c) x=5 , l = 10 call/hr * 0.5hr = 5call : p (x=5) = = = 0.175
5!