Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach

By COLIN CAMERER AND DAN LOVALLO *

Psychological studies show that most peo- ple, using plant-level data from the U.S. Cen-
ple are overconfident about their own relative sus of Manufacturers spanning 1963–1982,
abilities, and unreasonably optimistic about Timothy Dunne et al. (1988) estimated that
their futures (e.g., Neil D. Weinstein, 1980; 61.5 percent of all entrants exited within five
Shelly E. Taylor and J. D. Brown, 1988). years and 79.6 percent exited within ten years.
When assessing their position in a distribution Most of these exits are failures (see also Dan-
of peers on almost any positive trait—like iel Shapiro and R. S. Khemani, 1987; Dunne
driving ability (Ola Svenson, 1981), income et al., 1989a, b; Paul A. Geroski, 1991; John
prospects, or longevity—a vast majority of R. Baldwin, 1995).
people say they are above the average, al- Some possible explanations for the high rate
though of course, only half can be (if the trait of business failure are reviewed below. In this
is symmetrically distributed).1 paper we consider the hypothesis that business
This paper explores whether optimistic bi- failure is a result of managers acting on the op-
ases could plausibly and predictably influence timism about relative skill they exhibit in sur-
economic behavior in one particular setting— veys ( e.g., James March and Zur Shapira,
entry into competitive games or markets. 1987). This hypothesis is worth exploring be-
Many empirical studies show that most new cause it is consistent with so much psychological
businesses fail within a few years. For exam- evidence, and because optimistic overentry will
persist if the performance feedback necessary to
correct it is relatively noisy, infrequent, or slow.
* Camerer: Division of the Humanities and Social Sci- The idea that overconfidence causes business
ences 228-77, California Institute of Technology, Pasa- entry mistakes has, of course, been suggested
dena, CA 91125 ( e-mail: camerer @hss.caltech.edu ) ; before (e.g., Richard Roll, 1986) but has not
Lovallo: Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, been directly tested by measuring economic de-
Philadelphia, PA 19104. Help and comments were re-
ceived from Daniel Kahneman, Marc Knez, Matthew cisions and personal overconfidence simulta-
Rabin, David Teece, Dick Thaler, participants at the neously. To link the two we created an
MacArthur Foundation Preferences Group, the 1995 J/ experimental setting with basic features of busi-
DM Society, workshops at the Universities of Chicago ness entry situations. In the experiments, the suc-
and Colorado, UCLA, Harvard Business School, and cess of entering subjects depends on their
Wharton, and several anonymous referees. Gail Nash pro-
vided superb secretarial help and Roberto Weber provided relative skill (compared to other entrants). Most
research assistance. The research was funded by National subjects who enter think the total profit earned
Science Foundation Grant No. SBR 95-11001.
1
by all entrants will be negative, but their own
There are interesting exceptions—most people de- profit will be positive. The findings are consis-
murely say they are not in the very top decile or quintile,
but merely above average; for many traits, women are less tent with the prediction that overconfidence
optimistic than men (and even overly pessimistic; e.g., leads to excessive business entry.
Eleanor E. Maccoby and Carol N. Jacklin, 1974); and The experiments also develop a paradigm
clinically depressed patients are not optimistic ( e.g., in which business entry and other skill-based
Lauren B. Alloy and Anthony H. Ahrens, 1987). The lat- competitions ( e.g., labor-market tourn-
ter finding calls into question the common psychiatric pre-
sumption that ‘‘realistic’’ people are well adjusted and aments ) could be studied further. The
happy, and also raises the question of whether unrealistic paradigm extends typical economics exper-
optimism might be evolutionarily adaptive (e.g., Lionel iments by including a potentially potent
Tiger, 1979) or socially beneficial (Giovanni Dosi and psychological variable — relative skill per-
Lovallo, 1997). Michael Waldman (1994) shows how
such optimism could be evolutionarily stable, and men- ceptions — and also extends typical psychol-
tions conditions under which gender differences like those ogy experiments on overconfidence by
observed empirically could arise. adding financial incentives for judging one’s
306

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VOL. 89 NO. 1 CAMERER AND LOVALLO: OVERCONFIDENCE AND EXCESS ENTRY 307

skill accurately and a clear definition of the of occupational choice provide a clear life-
skill one is judging.2 cycle prediction based on this sampling motive
Of course, experimental data are hardly con- for entry, since people should bear the risk of
clusive evidence that overconfidence plays a failure early in their careers, but not later (e.g.,
role in actual entry decisions by firms. A big- Robert A. Miller, 1984).
ger scientific payoff comes when experimental The third explanation is that many entry
observations suggest a new phenomenon that decisions are mistakes, made by boundedly ra-
might be studied in the field. Our data suggest tional decision makers. Firms could mistak-
a new phenomenon we call ‘‘reference group enly enter too often for two different reasons—
neglect.’’ Excess entry is much larger when they know their own skills but fail to appre-
subjects volunteered to participate knowing ciate how many competitors there will be
that payoffs would depend on skill. These self- (they have ‘‘competitive blind spots’’), or
selected subjects seem to neglect the fact that they forecast competition accurately but over-
they are competing with a reference group of confidently think their firm will succeed while
subjects who all think they are skilled too. most others will fail.
(Neglecting the increased level of competition In a natural setting it is difficult to distin-
is like the neglect of adverse selection which guish between these three explanations for
leads to the ‘‘winner’s curse’’ in bidding.) high failure rates. The overconfidence expla-
nation is particularly hard to establish because
I. Possible Explanations for Entrant Failure it predicts that firms will enter even if they
expect negative industry profits. But even if
There are three primary explanations for the cumulative industry profits are actually nega-
frequency of entrant failure. The first expla- tive at some point in time, it is possible posi-
nation is that failures are frequent because en- tive returns will roll in later (or the industry
trants have only brief opportunities to make simply made a large unpredictable forecasting
money. In this view, failures are actually hit- mistake). So it is hard to imagine how to es-
and-run entries that are profitable but brief. tablish conclusively that expected industry re-
A second explanation is that business entries turns were negative.
are expensive lottery tickets with positively While more field research is surely worth-
skewed returns. In this view, although most while, some progress might be made in the
firms expect to lose money and fail, entry still laboratory. In an experiment, everything
maximizes expected profits because the pay- needed to distinguish the three theories —
offs to success are very large. There are two entry decisions, forecasts of industry profits,
variants of this argument: First, if small- and forecasts of the number of total entrants—
business owners are risk preferring or get psy- can be measured. If subjects forecast positive
chic income from running businesses, then the industry profits and enter, the rational-entry
expected utility from entering might be high theories appear correct. If subjects forecast
even if expected profit is low. Second, it is positive industry profits, but they underesti-
well known from multiarmed bandit problems mate the amount of entry and industry profit
that when sampling from unknown distribu- turns out to be negative, then the blind spots
tions of possible payoffs (such as career paths story appears correct. If subjects accurately
or profitable industries), it may pay to sample forecast negative industry profits, and enter
from ‘‘arms’’ with negative expected payoffs anyway, then the overconfidence explanation
if the possible payoffs from those arms is large appears correct.
(because sampling provides information about
which arms to choose in the future). Models II. Experimental Design

Our experiments extend a paradigm first

2
used by Daniel Kahneman ( 1988 ) , Jim
Earlier studies showed that overconfidence is larger
when traits are defined ambiguously—‘‘driving ability’’ is Brander, and Richard Thaler, then explored
more ambiguous than ‘‘ability to brake quickly to avoid an more throughly by Amnon Rapoport and
accident’’ (David Dunning et al., 1989; Lovallo, 1996). colleagues.

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308 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 1999

In their game, N players choose simulta- TABLE 1—RANK-BASED PAYOFFS

neously, and without communicating, whether
to enter a market or not. The market ‘‘capac- Payoff for successful entrants
as a function of ‘‘c’’
ity’’ is a preannounced number, c. If players
stay out they earn a payment K. If the total Rank 2 4 6 8
number of entrants is E , the entrants each earn 1 33 20 14 11
K / rK(c 0 E) (with rK ú 0). The optimal 2 17 15 12 10
behavior is simple: Players want to enter only 3 10 10 8
4 5 7 7
if the number of expected entrants (including 5 5 6
themselves) is less than the capacity c . If they 6 2 4
do enter, players prefer the number of entrants 7 3
to be as small as possible. The interesting 8 2
questions are whether the right number of
players enter (is E around c?), whether E
changes with c , and how players figure out
whether to enter or not. 1986). Besides being more realistic, differ-
Kahneman (1988) was surprised to see that ences in payoffs based on skill allow the pos-
the number of entrants, E, was typically in the sibility that overconfidence will lead to excess
range [c 0 2, c / 2] even though subjects entry.
could not communicate or coordinate their de- Table 1 shows how payoffs depend on a
cisions in any explicit way. ‘‘To a psycholo- subject’s rank and on the market capacity c.
gist,’’ he wrote, ‘‘it looks like magic.’’ The top c entrants share $50 proportionally,
Rapoport (1995) replicated the results using with higher-ranking entrants earning more. All
Ph.D. students playing for much larger stakes. entrants ranking below the top c lose $10. For
He also found that subjects entered a bit too example, if the market capacity c Å 2, then the
frequently at first, but gradually E converged highest-ranked entrant receives $33, the sec-
very close to c . E and c were highly correlated ond highest-ranked entrant receives $17, and
across trials. Extensions by James Sundali et any lower-ranked entrant loses $10. (Subjects
al. (1995) and Rapoport et al. (1998a) repli- are staked $10 initially.) Notice that if the
cated the earlier findings. Rapoport et al. number of entrants is exactly c / 5, then the
(1998b) introduced probabilistic payoffs and total payoff to all entering subjects (‘‘industry
showed that deviations from equilibrium entry profit’’) is zero; if there are more than c / 5
could be parsimoniously explained by nonlin- entrants, the average entrant loses money.
ear transformations of entry probabilities. Actual ranks are assigned in two different
Our experiments extend this paradigm in ways: Each subject is ranked by a random
four ways: Payoffs depend on a subject’s rank drawing, and also ranked according to his rel-
(relative to other entrants); ranks depend on ative performance on a skill or trivia task. Skill
either a chance device, or on a subject’s skill; ranks are determined by how many questions
subjects in some experiments are told in ad- subjects answer correctly on a sample of 10
vance that the experiment depends on skill logic puzzles (sessions 1–2) or trivia ques-
(and hence, more skilled subjects presumably tions about sports or current events (sessions
self-select into the experiment); and subjects 3–8). It is important to stress that subjects’
forecast the number of entrants in each period. ranks were not determined until the end of the
Skill-dependent payoffs are the crucial new experiment, after they made all their entry de-
design feature. The early experiments capture cisions in both the skill and random
an important aspect of entry—tacit coordina- conditions.
tion among potential entrants to avoid excess Here are the steps in each experimental
entry — but all entrants earned the same session:
amount. In naturally occurring settings, some
entrants win and others lose, due at least partly 1. Before the experiment, subjects were re-
to differences in managerial skill (see Kenneth cruited using either standard recruiting in-
R. MacCrimmon and Donald A. Wehrung, structions or ‘‘self-selection’’ instructions.

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TABLE 2—MARKET CAPACITY ‘‘c’’ VALUES

Rounds Experiment 1 Experiment 2 Experiments 3–6 Experiments 7 & 8

1 2 8 2 4
2 4 4 6 2
3 8 2 4 6
4 6 6 4 8
5 4 4 2 6
6 2 2 6 4
7 8 8 4 2
8 6 6 6 8
9 4 4 2 6
10 6 2 6 4
11 8 8 4 2
12 2 6 2 8

In the self-selection condition, subjects $0.25 for each forecast that was correct.
were asked if they would like to volunteer These forecasts distinguish the hypothesis
for an experiment in which performance on that too many subjects enter because they
sports or current events trivia would deter- underestimate the number of competitors
mine their payoff, and people who were (‘‘blind spots’’) from the hypothesis that
very good might earn a considerable sum subjects forecast entry accurately, but en-
of money. (They were also reminded in the trants all think they are above average.
experimental instructions that all subjects 5. Subjects made their entry decisions pri-
were recruited this way.) vately and simultaneously.3
2. Subjects were seated in a large classroom 6. Entry decisions were recorded and subjects
where they could not see each other’s ma- were told how many total entrants there
terials. The instructions were read aloud were in the round. Thus, the only feedback
and a comprehension test was given to that subjects received after each round is
guarantee understanding of the payoff ta- the total number of entrants for each period.
ble. The two types of ranking systems were 7. At the end of the experimental session, af-
explained and subjects were shown exam- ter all of the rounds in both conditions were
ples of the skill questions, along with sam- played, subjects either solved puzzles or
ple answers. Subjects were informed that took the trivia quiz, and their skill rank was
there would be two sequences of 12 rounds determined and announced. Then one of
for each condition—one for the random the subjects randomly chose one of the 24
rank and another for the skill rank. Subjects rounds and subjects’ earnings from that
were also informed that the decisions they round were computed and paid to them.
made for one of the rounds, chosen ran-
domly, would determine their payoff. It is important to reiterate that the only feed-
back subjects got throughout the session of 24
Individual rounds proceed as follows: rounds was the total number of entrants per

3. Subjects were told whether skill or random

ranks are being used in that round, and the 3
In one session, not reported here, we allowed deci-
capacity c. Table 2 shows the capacities sions to be made sequentially. This means that a subject
used in each round. The same sequence of moving after c / 5 entrants have already entered knows
capacities was used in the two consecutive for sure that the total payment to subjects will be negative;
conditions within a session. entering in that condition is the strongest possible evi-
dence that subjects are relatively overconfident. Roughly
4. Subjects privately forecasted how many en- the same number of subjects entered in that session, but
trants they expected would enter (including too few data are available from the single session to draw
themselves ) in the round. They earned firmer conclusions.

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310 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 1999

TABLE 3—DESCRIPTION OF EXPERIMENTS

Experiment # Sample n Selection procedure Rank order

1 Chicago, undergraduates 12 random R/S
2 Chicago, undergraduates 14 random S/R
3 Wharton, undergraduates 16 random R/S
4 Wharton, undergraduates 16 random S/R
5 Wharton, undergraduates 16 self-selection R/S
6 Wharton, undergraduates 16 self-selection S/R
7 Chicago, M.B.A.’s 14 self-selection R/S
8 Wharton, M.B.A.’s 14 self-selection S/R

round. This design was chosen to model initial see how they might arise without communi-
entry behavior by firms that do not learn much cation or some coordinating device, like his-
about their competitive advantage until after tory, sequential moves, or public labels
they incur substantial nonsalvageable fixed distinguishing subjects. There is also a unique
costs. The question of how post-entry feed- symmetric mixed-strategy equilibrium in
back about performance impacts subsequent which (risk-neutral) players enter with a prob-
behavior is interesting, of course—it is cer- ability close to (c / 5)/N (see Lovallo and
tainly likely that overconfidence would be di- Camerer, 1996).
minished if subjects were given a separate skill Relaxing the assumption of risk neutrality,
test and told their ranks after each round. But there is no way to determine the equilibrium
it is natural to begin by establishing whether number of entrants without measuring or mak-
overconfidence is present in the first place, be- ing specific assumptions about subjects’ risk
fore turning to the question of what forces preferences. 5 The random-rank condition
make it go away. gives an empirical estimate of observed equi-
The procedures described above were used librium without having to impose any a priori
in eight sessions. Table 3 summarizes differ- assumption about risk preferences. Since sub-
ences in treatment variables across sessions.4 jects participate in both random- and skill-rank
In half of the experimental sessions the conditions, their decisions in the random-rank
random-rank condition rounds were conducted condition act as a within-subject control for
first; in the other half the skill-rank rounds risk preferences. The difference in the number
were first. Four sessions involved self-selected of entrants in the random and skill conditions
subjects (who knew trivia skill would help) is the primary measure of interest.
and four sessions did not.
III. Results
A. Equilibrium Predictions
A. Does Overconfidence About Skill
Assuming risk neutrality, there are many Increase Entry?
pure-strategy Nash equilibria in which c / 4
or c / 5 subjects enter (the fifth subject is Table 4 lists the total amount of money
indifferent since he or she expects to earn zero earned by subjects (‘‘industry profit’’) per
from entering). Since the pure-strategy equi-
libria are necessarily asymmetric, it is hard to
5
An alternative is to try to induce risk neutrality (or
some other specific degree of risk aversion) by paying
subjects in units of probability (see Joyce E. Berg et al.,
4
Business students, especially M.B.A.’s, are an appro- 1986). We chose to use the random-rank condition be-
priate sample because many go on to start businesses or cause the probability procedure does not induce risk neu-
participate in corporate entry decisions (e.g., entrepre- trality reliably (see Reinhard Selten et al., 1995; cf., Vesna
neurship is the fifth most popular major among Wharton Prasnikar, 1996 ) , and the random-rank condition is
M.B.A.’s). equally theoretically valid, and simpler.

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TABLE 4—INDUSTRY PROFIT BY ROUND

Profit for random-rank condition

Rounds
Experiment # n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
1 12 50 50 20 30 40 30 20 50 30 40 20 40 420
2 14 0 010 10 20 010 10 20 10 0 0 30 20 100
3 16 10 50 20 40 10 20 30 40 20 40 30 20 330
4 16 0 10 10 20 10 010 0 10 20 10 0 20 100
5 16 20 10 10 10 0 0 30 20 010 0 0 0 90
6 16 30 20 10 0 010 30 20 10 10 30 10 20 180
7 14 10 20 40 20 30 40 030 40 10 0 0 20 200
8 14 20 10 0 30 30 0 10 10 20 10 20 40 200
Profit for skill-rank condition
Rounds
Experiment # n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
1 12 50 0 20 10 30 10 20 10 40 10 10 30 240
2 14 0 010 10 20 010 10 20 10 0 0 30 20 100
3 16 10 20 10 20 0 10 20 10 10 30 20 10 180
4 16 0 0 20 20 10 030 10 010 010 10 020 0 0
5 16 030 020 020 010 040 010 030 0 030 010 020 0 0220
6 16 10 040 020 030 010 030 010 020 020 010 0 0 0180
7 14 040 010 010 0 020 010 040 0 0 0 010 0 0140
8 14 10 010 010 010 020 020 020 0 020 10 020 020 0130

round in each experimental session, by rank ditions is $18.43, which is about two extra en-
condition. Recall that if c subjects enter, total trants per round in the skill conditions (about
industry profit is $50. If c / 5 enter, total prof- a third of the number expected to not enter).
its are 0. A powerful statistical test of significance ex-
The main question is whether there is more ploits the yoked design by comparing industry
entry (and lower industry profit) when people profit in each pair of skill-rank and random-
are betting on their own relative skill rather rank periods in exactly the same periods of
than on a random device. The answer is experimental sessions t and t / 1 (for t Å 1,
‘‘Yes’’: In the majority of the random-rank 3, 5, 7). In this comparison, each pair of pe-
rounds (74/96 or 77 percent) industry profit riods has exactly the same location in experi-
is strictly positive 6 and total profit is negative mental time and the same value of c , and differ
only six times (6 percent). Average industry only in whether ranks were due to skill or
profit across rounds is $16.87. In contrast, in chance. ( Fixed effects of periods, self-
the skill-rank rounds industry profit is strictly selection, and subject pool are all controlled
positive in only 37 rounds (40 percent) and for by this comparison.) A matched-pair t-test
negative in 41 (42 percent). Average profit using these comparisons yields t Å 07.43
across the skill-rank rounds is 0$1.56. The (dof Å 95, p õ 0.0001). Industry profits under
difference in average profits between the con- skill-based entry are clearly lower.
The next question is whether reference
group neglect produces a larger skill-random
6
entry differential in the experiments with self-
This is also consistent with tacit collusion among risk- selected subjects. The answer appears to be
neutral players, since having exactly c entrants is the col-
lusive solution (but is not a Nash equilibrium), or with ‘‘Yes.’’ In sessions without self-selection (1–
some degree of risk aversion or ( more likely ) loss 4), the average per-period industry profit is
aversion. $19.79 and $10.83 for the random and skill

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312 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 1999

TABLE 5—AVERAGE DIFFERENCE IN EXPECTED PROFITS PER ENTRANT BETWEEN RANDOM AND SKILL CONDITIONS

Experiment Experiment Experiment Experiment Experiment Experiment Experiment Experiment

Measure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total
Pr 0 Ps 1.635 0.477 01.19 0.24 1.62 2.49 3.16 1.80 1.31
(1.98) (1.41) (1.72) (2.41) (1.32) (1.27) (1.61) (1.20) (2.04)
# of S’s with 10/12 10/13 3/11 7/14 12/13 12/13 13/13 11/12 78/101
Pr 0 Ps õ 0 (83) (77) (27) (50) (92) (92) (100) (92) (77)
(percent)
# of S’s with 0/12 0/13 0/12 2/15 12/15 15/16 12/14 11/14 52/111
Ps õ 0 (0) (0) (0) (13) (80) (94) (86) (79) (47)
(percent)

conditions, respectively — a difference of players underforecasting how many others

$9.14, or about one extra entrant in the skill- will enter.
based rounds. In sessions with self-selection To test this hypothesis, we use subject j ’s
(5–8) profit is $13.96 in the random condition forecast Fijt to compute the profit that subject
and 0$13.13 in the skill condition, which re- j expects the average entrant to earn in round
sults in an entry differential of $27.10—about t of experiment i . If the capacity is cit in that
three times as large as in the sessions without particular period, then the ‘‘expected aver-
self-selection. Furthermore, in the experiments age profit’’ — the amount of profit subject j
with self-selection, industry profits are posi- thinks the average entrant will earn — is
tive in only 3 of the 48 skill-rank periods, com- ( 50 – 10 *( Fijt 0 cit ) ) / Fijt , which we denote
pared with 34 of 48 in the non-self-selected by Ej ( Pijt ) . This method effectively sepa-
sessions. A matched-pairs test comparing the rates the blind spots hypothesis from the
skill-random profit differentials for matched overconfidence hypothesis. Suppose, for ex-
periods between sessions 1 – 4 and 5 – 8 ample, that in skill conditions subjects are
strongly rejects the hypothesis that differen- more apt to enter because they think fewer
tials are the same in sessions with and without people will enter, not because they feel they
self-selection (t(94) Å 04.08, p õ 0.001). are more skilled. Then their Ej ( Pijt ) values
Reference group neglect clearly makes the will be larger in the skill condition. Includ-
overconfidence effect stronger. ing Ej ( Pijt ) in an entry regression will then
wipe out the effect spuriously attributed to
B. Expected Earnings Differences in Skill skill.
and Random Rounds If entering subjects are more overconfident
in the skill rounds, then their expected average
The matched-pairs tests illustrate the effect profits E( Pijt ) will be smaller than in random
of overconfidence on entry and demonstrate rounds because the skilled subjects expect to
that self-selection makes the effect stronger. earn more than the average entrant and, hence,
But these tests do not carefully control for all are willing to enter even when the expected
alternative explanations.7 For example, the average profit is low. To test this prediction,
blind spots hypothesis suggests that excessive Table 5 reports the difference between ex-
entry in the skill conditions may be due to pected average profits in random rounds (de-
noted Pr ) and the same statistic in skill rounds
( Ps ), using only the rounds in which a subject
entered. The table shows three different mea-
7
Gender could be confounded with self-selection, too, sures for each session: The mean difference
since women may be less likely to volunteer for tasks Pr 0 Ps averaged across entering subjects, the
which reward expertise in sports trivia (and are usually number and percentage of subjects who have
found to be less overconfident than men, in general). We
controlled for this by only recruiting male subjects in ses- a negative mean (i.e., who expect less average
sions 3–8. Thus, the logit analysis of sessions 3–8 effec- profit in skill periods), and the number and
tively controls for gender. percentage of subjects whose expected aver-

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VOL. 89 NO. 1 CAMERER AND LOVALLO: OVERCONFIDENCE AND EXCESS ENTRY 313

age profit is negative, on average, across skill positively but the MBA*Skill interaction does
periods. not.
In sessions without self-selection (1–4) the Most importantly, the effect of the Skill con-
mean difference Pr 0 Ps is generally positive dition variable is significantly positive (t Å
and modestly significant—60 percent of the 2.48) in the full model but the interaction
subjects expect to earn less in skill periods, but of self-selection and skill, RNG*Skill, is in-
only a few subjects (4 percent) actually expect significant. The middle column drops the un-
losses in skill periods. In the sessions with self- interesting variables MBA, MBA*Skill, and
selection (4–8) the statistics are more strik- the insignificant main effect of RNG. Then
ing : There are large, modestly significant RNG*Skill becomes significant (t Å 1.90),
average differences Pr 0 Ps in all four ses- confirming that self-selection significantly in-
sions (almost all subjects expect to earn less creases the tendency to enter more frequently
in skill periods than in random periods), and when payoffs depend on skill.10 The right col-
85 percent of the subjects have negative ex- umn excludes the RNG *Skill interaction,
pected average profits in skill periods. The which increases the estimated coefficient and
large majority of subjects in the self-selection significance of the pure skill effect (t Å 4.83).
sessions seem to be saying, ‘‘I expect the av- Comparing the log-likelihoods with and with-
erage entrant to lose money, but not me!’’ out RNG*Skill also shows that including it
improves fit significantly ( x 2 Å 3.6, p Å
C. Regression Estimates of the 0.05), corroborating the results of the t-test.
Overconfidence Effect
D. Additional Analyses: Forecasts and
Another way to see the size and significance Equilibrium Behavior
of all the variables’ effects at once is a logit
regression in which the dependent variable is Since subjects forecasted the number of en-
subject j’s 0-1 entry decision (enter Å 1) in trants in each period, we can test whether their
round t of experiment i, Dijt . The logit includes forecasts reflect rational use of available in-
controls for period-specific intercepts (to cap- formation (see Lovallo and Camerer [1996]
ture any period-by-period influences on en- for more details). Forecasts are slightly bi-
try), a subject pool dummy (MBA Å 1), a ased: In random conditions subjects forecast
self-selection condition dummy (RNG Å 1), about 0.30 entrants too high, and in skill con-
capacity c, and a skill-rank dummy (Skill Å ditions they forecast 0.50 entrants too low (the
1). latter bias is significantly negative at p õ
Table 6 shows the results of the logit re- 0.05). We have no explanation for these small
gression of entry decisions.8 Period-specific
dummy variables were never significant and
are not reported. Curiously, E( Pijt ) enters with
a negative sign, implying that when subjects and between E ( Pijt ) and c. None of these specifications
expect high average profit they enter less of- improved the fit substantially or eliminated the significant
ten. This odd result is robust to several speci- negative coefficient on E( Pijt ). We suspect the result oc-
curs because when subjects plan to enter, they also fore-
fications but it does not disrupt inferences cast a lot of entry, so the expected average profit E( Pijt )
about skill.9 The dummy variable MBA enters is lower when they enter. This could be due to a ‘‘false
consensus’’ in which subjects use their own decision as a
clue about what others will do (and, because of optimism,
they do not let their forecast inhibit their own entry).
10
Excluding the RNG*Skill interaction from the sec-
8
The regression uses only data from sessions 3–8 be- ond model raises the estimated coefficient and significance
cause sessions 1–2 used a different task (logic puzzles of the pure skill effect (0.450, t Å 4.83), which suggests
rather than trivia) and did not include self-selection as a that the precision of the estimates of skill and RNG*Skill
treatment, so including it does not give much extra power in the middle-column specification are a lot lower because
for estimating the effect of RNG. of the colinearity between skill and RNG*Skill. Compar-
9
We also included capacity c as a series of dummy ing the log-likelihoods with and without RNG*Skill also
variables (to capture nonlinearity in the effect of c on en- shows that including it improves fit significantly ( x 2 Å
try), and included interactions between E( Pijt ) and Skill, 3.6, p Å 0.05).

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314 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 1999

TABLE 6—LOGIT ESTIMATION OF ENTRY EQUATION (SESSIONS 3–8, n Å 2,204)

Dependent variable: Entry (Å1)

Variable Estimate (t-statistic) Estimate (t-statistic) Estimate (t-statistic)
Intercept 00.887 (03.28) 00.855 (03.40) 00.865 (03.21)
c 0.233 (6.93) 0.257 (7.99) 0.258 (8.06)
E(pijt) 00.129 (06.93) 00.126 (06.65) 00.144 (08.72)
Skill 0.375 (2.48) 0.286 (2.26) 0.450 (4.83)
MBA 0.283 (1.76)
RNG 0.011 (0.01)
MBA*Skill 0.196 (0.83)
RNG*Skill 0.078 (0.35) 0.299 (1.90)
Log-likelihood 01366.8 01372.5 01374.3
Percent correct 64.84 64.02 64.34

biases and do not attach much economic sig- models assume those deviations drop with the
nificance to them. For most subjects, forecasts reciprocal or reciprocal square root of the pe-
pass the standard rationality tests because fore- riod number. The three techniques yield esti-
cast errors are not predicted by observable in- mated differentials of 1.96, 1.79, and 1.34 (all
formation (i.e., by previous errors, or by the of which are highly significant).
current forecast level). When errors are pre- These numbers suggest that even if the ex-
dictable, they tend to flip in the opposite di- periment was repeated for a much longer time,
rection of previous errors, and errors are one or two more subjects would enter when
positively correlated with levels (i.e., when their payoffs depend on skill, relative to the
forecasts are high, they are too high so the number who enter than when payoffs are ran-
forecast error is positive). dom. Keep in mind that an average of five or
Compared to other economics experiments six subjects are predicted to stay out in each
in which paid forecasts have been gathered period (depending on the design). Two extra
(cf., Camerer, 1995 pp. 609–12), the infor- entrants means that more than a third of the
mational rationality of these forecasts is quite number who are predicted to stay out actually
good. This fact is important because it means enter.
subjects are not generally irrational in pro-
cessing information and they do not overenter IV. Discussion
because they underforecast the amount of
competition. They are just overconfident about Empirical studies show a high rate of busi-
their relative skill. ness failure. We explored whether overconfi-
The time series of matched-pair skill- dence about relative ability is part of the
random differentials in entry has a slight explanation for excessive failure by creating
downward trend across periods. This raises the experimental entry games in which entrants’
important question of whether the effect of payoffs depend on their skill.
overconfidence on entry would disappear if the When subjects’ post-entry payoffs are based
experiment were run longer. A helpful way to on their own abilities, individuals tend to over-
forecast the answer is to fit a time-series model estimate their chances of relative success and
which estimates the long-run differential by enter more frequently (compared to a condi-
extrapolating from 12 periods of data to what tion in which payoffs do not depend on skill).
would happen if the experiment were run for- The more surprising finding is that overconfi-
ever (see Camerer, 1987). Our working paper dence is even stronger when subjects self-
reports estimates from three different models. select into the experimental sessions, knowing
One model assumes partial adaptation of de- their success will depend partly on their skill
viations from long-run equilibrium. Two other (and that others have self-selected too). In

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VOL. 89 NO. 1 CAMERER AND LOVALLO: OVERCONFIDENCE AND EXCESS ENTRY 315

these sessions, there is so much entry that the professions where overconfidence is likely
average subject loses money in 34 out of 48 to be largest, industry profits or total wages
periods, and earns money in only four periods. ( including costs of training ) may be nega-
This result suggests a new phenomenon spe- tive. This brings us full circle to the empir-
cific to competition, ‘‘reference group ne- ical facts about business failure, and the
glect’’ — the tendency to underadjust to difficulty of clearly establishing negative in-
changes in the reference group one competes dustry profit. The key to empirical tests
with. which distinguish overconfidence from other
Reference group neglect is one byproduct of explanations is to find variables which pre-
a psychological phenomenon called the ‘‘in- dict levels of overconfidence and see if they
side view’’ (Kahneman and Lovallo, 1993). correlate with the tendency for overall profit
An inside view forecast is generated by focus- to be negative. For example, when the cri-
ing on the abilities and resources of a partic- terion for success is more vague, people or
ular group, constructing scenarios of future firms should be more likely to overcompete,
progress, and extrapolating current trends. In since ambiguity permits excess optimism.
contrast, an ‘‘outside view’’ ignores special This implies that in professions where suc-
details of the case at hand, constructs a class cess can be achieved by different types of
of cases similar to the current one, and guesses people, or industries with highly differenti-
where the current case lies in that class (cf., ated products, excess entry is more likely.
Kahneman and Tversky, 1979). The inside For example, the skills required to be a suc-
view tells a colorful story; the outside view cessful model seem to be narrower than the
recites statistics. In the inside view, there is no skills required to be a successful actor. If so,
special role for anticipation of the number of your waiter at a Los Angeles restaurant is
competitors or their abilities. In the outside more likely to be an aspiring actor than an
view, the fact that most entries fail cannot be aspiring model.
ignored. The overconfidence hypothesis also pre-
Reference group neglect was nicely ex- dicts that people will prefer performance-
pressed by Joe Roth, chairman of Walt based incentives schemes more often than
Disney Studios, when he was asked why so standard theory predicts. Standard theory
many expensive big-budget movies are re- predicts that as output variance rises, prin-
leased on the same weekends ( such as Me- cipals who can bear risk should offer less
morial Day and Independence Day ) . Roth output-sensitive contracts to agents ( who
replied: presumably dislike risk ) . Overconfidence
predicts that agents will be relatively insen-
Hubris. Hubris. If you only think about sitive to risk; indeed, when risk is high their
your own business, you think, ‘‘I’ve got overconfidence might lead them to prefer
a good story department, I’ve got a good riskier contracts because they think they can
marketing department, we’re going to go beat the odds. There is some evidence from
out and do this.’’ And you don’t think sharecropping that the standard prediction is
that everybody else is thinking the same
way. In a given weekend in a year you’ll wrong, and the overconfidence prediction
have five movies open, and there’s cer- may be right. Crops with larger yield varia-
tainly not enough people to go around. tion are more likely to be farmed with cash
( Emphasis ours; Los Angeles Times, leases, where farmers pay a fixed fee to lease
1996 p. F8.) the land and bear all the crop risk themselves
( e.g., Douglas W. Allen and Dean Lueck,
A. Some Testable Economic Implications 1995 ) . Other evidence from franchising and
mining show that risk variables play a small
Experimental results are especially useful role in contract determination; the existence
when they suggest implications which are of overconfidence may explain why.
testable with naturally occurring data. If Reference group neglect predicts that when
people are generally overconfident about agents compete based on skill, they will be
their relative abilities, then in industries or insufficiently sensitive to the quality of

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316 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 1999

competition. This has at least three testable to college) and the effect will get stronger if
implications. they go to graduate school. Promotion tracks
First, people will gather too little data about in businesses could produce the same pattern
the nature of their competitors when deciding of snowballing overconfidence: Perhaps as
whether to enter.11 cream rises to the top, hubris does too.
Second, reference group neglect predicts Reference group neglect predicts an oppo-
that people will be insensitive to whether their site bias when workers lose tournaments and
competitors are forced to compete or choose consider whether to enter ‘‘consolation’’ tour-
to compete. Empirical tests could compare a naments with other losers. Losing workers will
situation in which entry is dictated by regula- be underconfident if they neglect how easy the
tion or law, with a similar situation in which new competition is. For example, recently
people can opt in or out. Reference group ne- fired workers will have unusually long spells
glect predicts a higher failure rate in the latter of unemployment ( compared to the spell
cases.12 length predicted by optimal search theory), if
Third, in hierarchical tournaments where they lick their wounds rather than compete
‘‘winners’’ at one level advance to the next with other recently fired workers by searching.
level, reference group neglect predicts that In addition to reference group neglect and
overconfidence will get stronger and stronger its testable implications, an important impli-
as people advance.13 As workers win each cation of our study is methodological. In some
level of the tournament, their success is cer- settings with uncertainty, it is sensible to char-
tainly a positive signal of ability relative to the acterize economic agents as making decisions
tournament losers left behind, but every other about random events, and use chance devices
winner has received the same positive signal in the lab to mimic such events. However,
too. If winners neglect the fact that competi- when agents are betting on their own abilities,
tion increases at each level, they will become assuming that random luck and skill are the
more overconfident at each new level. Edu- same is a mistake (cf., Linda Babcock and
cational attainment might be an example. George Loewenstein, 1997). Indeed, we reach
Freshman students at a highly selective college different conclusions about equilibrium pre-
will be overconfident (neglecting the large in- dictions when we use skill-based payoffs in-
crease in competition from their high school stead of random payoffs—they enter more
when betting on their skill. This is not to say
that the subjects behave irrationally—indeed,
they forecast the number of competitors quite
11
For example, prospective doctoral students often do well, and most pass tests of expectational ra-
not ask about exam failure rates or what jobs all graduates tionality. They are simply overconfident; and
get, and academics are surprisingly unfamiliar with accep- the inside view which creates that confidence
tance rates of different journals they submit articles to.
These ‘‘outside view’’ statistics only make cameo ap- leads them to neglect the quality of their
pearances in the success stories people project for competition.
themselves.
12
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are grateful to Heitor Almeida, Nick Barberis, Zahi Ben-David, Espen Eckbo, Xavier Gabaix, Dirk
Hackbarth, Dirk Jenter, Augustin Landier, Alexander Ljungqvist, Ulrike Malmendier, Jay Ritter,
David Robinson, Hersh Shefrin, Andrei Shleifer, Meir Statman, Theo Vermaelen, Ivo Welch, and
Jeffrey Zweibel for helpful comments. Baker and Ruback gratefully acknowledge financial support
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1100. Rui Baptista, Murat Karaöz. 2007. Turbulence in High Growth and Declining Industries. SSRN
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1101. Giovanni Gavetti, Massimo Warglien. 2007. Recognizing the New: A Multi-Agent Model of Analogy
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1104. Francesca Gino, Don A. Moore, Samuel A. Swift, Zachariah S. Sharek. 2007. Correspondence Bias
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