Intermediate Microeconomics - II Research Project The Economics of Streaming: An Empirical Study On Netflix's Global Subscriber Growth
Intermediate Microeconomics - II Research Project The Economics of Streaming: An Empirical Study On Netflix's Global Subscriber Growth
Research Project
The Economics of Streaming: An Empirical Study on
Netflix’s Global Subscriber Growth
1. ABSTRACT
This study investigates the key factors influencing Netflix’s global subscriber growth, focusing on
three major variables: income levels (GDP per capita), internet accessibility, and market
competition. Using cross-country data and multiple regression analysis, the study examines how
macroeconomic and technological factors shape consumer demand for streaming services. The
findings reveal that higher income levels and greater internet penetration are strongly associated
with increased Netflix subscriptions, while the presence of major competitors significantly
moderates growth. These results highlight the interplay between economic development, digital
infrastructure, and competitive dynamics in the global streaming market. The study offers
important insights for streaming platform’s expansion strategies and informs policymakers about
the critical role of digital inclusion in the entertainment economy.
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. The Global Rise of Netflix and Streaming Services
Over the past decade, Netflix has played a pivotal role in reshaping the global entertainment
landscape, transforming how audiences consume media content. By pioneering a subscription-
based streaming model, Netflix introduced flexible, user-centric viewing options that disrupted
traditional cable and broadcast television industries. Instead of adhering to rigid broadcast
schedules, subscribers gained the freedom to watch their preferred content anytime, anywhere, and
on multiple devices. Netflix's investment in diverse and high-quality original programming shows
strengthened its global appeal and differentiated it from competitors.
Given these observations, this study is centred around a key research question: What factors best
explain Netflix’s global subscriber growth - national income levels (GDP per capita), internet
penetration rates, or the intensity of competition from rival streaming platforms. By systematically
exploring this question, we aim to shed light on broader patterns in digital market development
and evolving consumer behaviour in the global entertainment industry. The insights generated will
not only benefit corporate strategists at Netflix and similar firms but also policymakers aiming to
foster inclusive digital economies.
Technological access encompasses not only internet availability but also factors such as
smartphone penetration, broadband speed, and data affordability. In emerging markets,
government initiatives to improve digital infrastructure, such as India’s "Digital India" campaign,
have significantly boosted internet access, contributing to the rapid expansion of Netflix’s
subscriber base in recent years.
However, disparities persist. In regions with poor digital infrastructure, such as rural parts of
Africa and South Asia, low internet penetration severely limits Netflix’s market potential,
regardless of latent consumer demand.
For instance, in India, platforms like Disney+ Hotstar, Amazon Prime Video, and SonyLIV
provide strong competition, offering localized content and affordable subscription packages.
Similarly, in Japan, domestic players like U-Next and Hulu Japan challenge Netflix’s market
share.
To capture these dynamics, a competition dummy variable is included in the study, coded as '1' if
significant rival streaming services exist in a market, and '0' otherwise. This approach allows us
to quantitatively assess how competitive intensity affects Netflix’s growth trajectory.
Ultimately, the findings of this analysis will contribute to broader discussions about digital
consumption trends, international market strategies for digital platforms, and the socio-economic
barriers to accessing global entertainment services
3. LITERATURE REVIEW
3.1. Theoretical Foundations and Market Context
The meteoric rise of streaming platforms represents a paradigmatic shift in media consumption
that has attracted substantial scholarly attention from microeconomics researchers. This review
synthesizes key theoretical frameworks and empirical findings from ten seminal studies that
illuminate the complex interplay of economic factors driving streaming adoption. The analysis
reveals three fundamental pillars of understanding: (1) income-demand relationships, (2)
technological infrastructure requirements, and (3) competitive market dynamics, each
contributing distinct insights to our comprehension of this digital transformation.
Complementing this work, Chakravarty and Siva's (2022) focused examination of emerging
markets uncovers even more pronounced sensitivity, where a mere 1% increase in relative
subscription costs reduces demand by 1.2%. Their innovative methodological approach,
combining household survey data with experimental pricing variations across Indian and
Southeast Asian markets, demonstrates how income thresholds create adoption barriers. Perhaps
most significantly, they identify a critical "inflection point" at approximately $3,000 annual GDP
per capita, below which streaming adoption rates remain stubbornly low regardless of other
factors.
Jenner's (2018) longitudinal case study of Netflix's strategic evolution provides rich qualitative
insights that complement these quantitative findings. Through meticulous analysis of pricing
changes, content investments, and market positioning over Netflix's first decade of streaming
operations, Jenner documents how the platform deliberately shifted from a "content aggregator"
to "original producer" model in response to competitive pressures. This transition, while costly,
appears to have successfully differentiated Netflix's offering and reduced cross-platform elasticity
of demand.
4. METHODOLOGICAL OVERIVIEW
This study investigates the determinants of worldwide subscriber growth (measured in millions)
over the period 2011–2024. To achieve this, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model
was employed, with the dependent variable being Subscribers worldwide in million.
Dependent Variable:
1. Subscribers worldwide in million: Total global subscribers measured in millions.
Independent Variables:
1. Worldwide GDP per capita: The global GDP per capita (constant USD).
2. Individuals using Internet: Number of individuals using the internet (in millions or as a
percentage).
3. Dummy Disney: A binary (dummy) variable representing the post-Disney+ launch period (1
if Disney+ existed during that year, 0 otherwise).
All variables are used in their original form except for Dummy Disney, which is constructed for
the purpose of this study. This data is used to explore and analyse the impact of economic growth,
internet accessibility, and major industry changes on global subscriber trends of NETFLIX over
time. The period was selected based on the availability of consistent annual data from the World
Bank to ensure reliability and comparability across variables.
R-squared 0.9915
Adjusted R-squared 0.9889
Standard Error of Regression 9.8812
F-statistic 390.2295 (p-value: 1.18e-10)
The very high R-squared value (0.9915) suggests that approximately 99% of the variation in
the number of worldwide subscribers is explained by the independent variables: Worldwide
GDP per capita, Individuals Using the Internet, and Dummy Disney+.
5.3.4. ANOVA
The analysis of variance (ANOVA) conducted on the regression model indicates a highly
significant result. The model explains approximately 99.15% of the total variance in the
dependent variable, as reflected by the coefficient of determination (R² = 0.9915). The F-statistic
value is 390.23 with degrees of freedom (3, 10), and the associated p-value is 1.18 × 10⁻¹⁰. Since
the p-value is far below the standard significance level of 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis,
concluding that at least one of the independent variables significantly predicts the dependent
variable. These results suggest that the regression model provides an excellent fit to the data and
that the predictors included in the model collectively have a statistically significant impact.
5.3.5. Multicollinearity
The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) results indicate that none of the variables show serious
multicollinearity, as all VIF values are below the critical threshold of 10. Specifically,
"Worldwide GDP per capita" has a VIF of 4.270, "Individuals using the Internet" has a VIF of
6.486, and "Dummy Disney" has a VIF of 4.698. While "Individuals using the Internet" shows
moderate multicollinearity with a VIF slightly above 5, it is not severe enough to require
immediate corrective action. Overall, the model does not face a major multicollinearity problem.
5.3.6. Heteroskedasticity
The results from White’s test for heteroskedasticity show that the test statistic (TR²) is 9.605202
with a p-value of 0.293836. Since the p-value is greater than the standard significance level of
0.05, this indicates that there is no evidence of heteroskedasticity in the model, meaning the
variance of the residuals appears to be constant across observations. Therefore, the assumption of
homoskedasticity holds, and the regression results are considered reliable with respect to this
issue.
Internet penetration has an even more pronounced effect. For every 1% increase in the share of
the population using the internet, Netflix gains approximately 5.82 million subscribers. This
highlights the pivotal role of digital accessibility in facilitating the adoption of streaming
platforms. Without widespread internet access, even higher income levels may not translate into
significant subscription growth.
The introduction of Disney+ in 2019, represented by a dummy variable, does not show a
statistically significant impact on Netflix’s overall subscriber numbers. This could imply that the
streaming market is not a zero-sum game; instead, the entry of new competitors may expand the
market overall rather than cannibalizing Netflix’s user base. Alternatively, the effect of
competition might manifest over a longer timeframe than captured in this study.
The model’s high R-squared value of 0.9915 indicates that nearly all the variation in Netflix’s
subscriber numbers can be explained by these three factors—GDP per capita, internet penetration,
and the presence of Disney+. This strong explanatory power underscores the importance of
macroeconomic and technological conditions in shaping the streaming industry’s growth.
Autocorrelation was detected in the residuals, suggesting that subscriber growth in one year may
depend on growth in previous years. While this does not invalidate the model, it indicates that
future research could benefit from dynamic modelling techniques to account for temporal
dependencies.
The RESET test flagged potential specification errors, hinting that additional variable—such as
local content investments or marketing expenditures—might further explain subscriber growth.
However, the current model’s robustness and high explanatory power suggest that these
omissions do not critically undermine the findings.
7. DISCUSSION
7.1. Key Findings
The analysis demonstrates that income levels and internet accessibility are the primary drivers of
Netflix’s global subscriber growth. The strong positive relationship between GDPs per capita and
subscriptions aligns with microeconomic theory, which posits that demand for non-essential
goods, like streaming services, increases as incomes rise. Meanwhile, the outsized effect of
internet penetration underscores the foundational role of digital infrastructure. Without
widespread and affordable internet access, the potential market for streaming platforms remains
constrained, regardless of income levels.
The negligible impact of Disney+ on Netflix’s subscriber numbers is surprising but not
inexplicable. It may reflect the market’s capacity to accommodate multiple players, with each
platform carving out its niche. Alternatively, Disney+’s effect might be lagged or more
pronounced in specific regions, which aggregate global data could mask.
The lack of a significant competition effect challenges the traditional view of markets as zero-
sum environments. Instead, it suggests that the streaming industry may exhibit characteristics of
a "shared market," where new entrants stimulate overall demand rather than merely redistributing
existing subscribers. This aligns with theories of market expansion in digital economies, where
platform diversity can attract new user segments.
Policymakers play a crucial role in this ecosystem. Investments in broadband infrastructure and
policies promoting digital inclusion can unlock significant economic opportunities, not just for
streaming services but for the broader digital economy. Additionally, fostering competitive
markets—while ensuring they do not become overly fragmented—can drive innovation and
consumer choice without stifling industry growth.
8. CONCLUSION
This study has systematically examined the microeconomic foundations of Netflix's global
subscriber growth, revealing fundamental insights about digital platform expansion in the modern
entertainment economy. Through rigorous empirical analysis, we've established three core pillars
that explain streaming service adoption: income effects, technological infrastructure, and
competitive dynamics. These findings not only validate established microeconomic principles in
a new digital context but also challenge conventional wisdom about platform competition and
market saturation.
The implications of this finding are profound for market entry strategies. Streaming platforms
should view economic development trajectories as leading indicators for market readiness,
potentially adjusting their expansion roadmaps to align with IMF or World Bank growth
projections. Our research suggests that countries approaching this income threshold represent
particularly strategic opportunities for early market development efforts, even before full
infrastructure maturity is achieved.
The policy implications are equally significant. Our models indicate that digital inclusion
initiatives generate compounding economic returns by enabling not just entertainment platforms
but entire digital ecosystems encompassing education, healthcare, and e-commerce. Governments
should view broadband expansion through this multiplier lens, with targeted infrastructure
investments in secondary cities potentially yielding particularly high returns by bridging the
urban-rural digital divide.
1.Market Expansion Effect: Rather than cannibalizing Netflix's base, new entrants may be
expanding the overall streaming category, converting non-subscribers and increasing market
penetration.
2. Multi-homing Behaviour: Consumers appear willing to maintain multiple subscriptions,
treating streaming platforms as complementary rather than substitutable services.
3. Lagging Effects: Competitive impacts may require longer time horizons to manifest due
to annual subscription cycles and content discovery patterns.
This finding has crucial strategic implications, suggesting that streaming platforms might benefit
more from category growth strategies than zero-sum market share battles. The apparent stability
of Netflix's position despite intense competition suggests that first-mover advantages in streaming
may be more durable than previously assumed.
This study opens several avenues for future research. First, behavioural economics could deepen
our understanding of subscription decisions, particularly how cognitive biases like present bias or
loss aversion influence churn and pricing plan choices. Second, the role of content differentiation
merits further exploration—specifically, how consumers value original versus licensed content,
and how regional preferences shape platform competitiveness. Third, the long-term competitive
dynamics of streaming markets remain uncertain; future work could examine whether current
"coopetition" among platforms will evolve into winner-take-all markets or sustained oligopolistic
competition. Finally, the infrastructure-adoption relationship requires updated analysis as 5G and
satellite internet expand access, potentially reshaping demand patterns in emerging economies.
These directions would enrich both academic theory and industry practice in this rapidly evolving
sector.
9. REFERENCES
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2. Chakravarty, D., & Siva, K. (2022). Digital entertainment consumption in emerging markets:
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3. Czernich, N., Falck, O., Kretschmer, T., & Woessmann, L. (2011). Broadband infrastructure
and economic growth. The Economic Journal, 121(552), 505-532.
4. Bourreau, M., Cambini, C., & Dogan, P. (2010). Access pricing, competition, and incentives
to migrate from "old" to "new" technology. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 28(4),
358-367.
5. Lambrecht, A., & Tucker, C. (2015). Can big data protect a firm from competition?
Competition Policy International, 11(1), 45-62.
6. Jenner, M. (2018). Netflix and the re-invention of television. Palgrave Macmillan.
7. https://www.demandsage.com/netflix-subscribers/