MEP Pupil Text 5

5 Probability
5.1 Probabilities
Probabilities are used to describe how likely or unlikely it is that something will happen.
Weather forecasters often talk about how likely it is to rain, or perhaps snow, in particular
parts of the country.

Worked Example 1
(a) When you roll a dice, which number are you most likely to get?
(b) If you rolled a dice 600 times how my sixes would you expect to get?
(c) Would you expect to get the same number of ones?

Solution
(a) You are equally likely to get any of the six numbers.

(b) You would expect to get a six in about of the throws, so 100 sixes.
(c) Yes, in fact you would expect to get about 100 of each number.

Worked Example 2
Use one of the following to describe each one of the statements (a) to (d).
Certain
Very likely
Likely
Unlikely
Very unlikely
Impossible
(a) It will snow tomorrow.
(b) It will rain tomorrow.
(c) You win a car in a competition tomorrow.
(d) You are late for school tomorrow.

Solution
(a) Very unlikely for most places in Britain, especially in summer.
(b) Likely or Very likely in Britain in winter.

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(c) Very unlikely if you have entered the competition. Impossible if you have not
entered the competition.
(d) Very unlikely, unless the school bus breaks down.

Exercises
1. If you toss a coin 500 times, how many times would you expect to land:
(a) on its side,
(b) heads up, (c) tails up?

2. A tetrahedron is a shape with 4 faces. The faces are numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4. The
tetrahedron is rolled 200 times. How many times would you expect it to land on a
side numbered
(a) 4 (b) 2 (c) 5?

3. Describe each of the following events as: Impossible, Unlikely,

Likely,
Certain.

(a) You roll a normal dice and score 7.

(b) You fall off your bike on the way home from school.
(c) You complete all your maths homework correctly.
(d) Your favourite football team wins their next match.
(e) Your parents decide to double your pocket money next week.
(f) You have chips with your next school dinner.
(g) The school bus is on time tomorrow.

4. Describe two events that are:

(a) Certain,
(b) Impossible,
(c) Likely to happen,
(d) Unlikely to happen.

5. How many sixes would you expect to get if you rolled a dice:
(a) 60 times,
(b) 120 times,
(c) 6000 times,
(d) 3600 times?

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6. Nisha tossed a coin a large number of times and got 450 heads. How many times
do you think he tossed the coin?

7. Karen rolled a dice and got 250 twos.

(a) How many times do you think she rolled the dice?
(b) How many sixes do you think she got?

8. Stuart chooses a playing card from a full pack 100 times. How many times would
you expect him to get:
(a) a red card,
(b) a black card,
(c) a heart,
(d) a diamond?

5.2 Simple Probability

Probabilities are given values between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 means that the event is
impossible, while a probability of 1 means that it is certain. The closer the probability of
an event is to 1, the more likely it is to happen. The closer the probability of an event is
to 0, the less likely it is to happen.

Worked Example 1
When you toss a coin, what is the probability that it lands heads up?

Solution
When you toss a coin there are two possibilities, that it lands heads up or tails up. As one
of these must be obtained,
p(heads) + p(tails) = 1
But both are equally likely so

p(heads) = p(tails) = .

Worked Example 2
The probability that it rains tomorrow is .
What is the probability that is does not rain tomorrow?

Solution
Tomorrow it must either rain or not rain, so,

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p(rain) + p(no rain) = 1.

The probability it rains is , so

+ p(no rain) = 1

p(no rain) = 1 −

= .

So the probability that it does not rain is .

Exercises
1. What is the probability that it does not rain tomorrow, if the probability that it does
rain tomorrow is:

(a) 0.9, (b) (c) (d) ?

2. Ben plays snooker with his friends. The probability that he beats Gareth is 0.8 and
the probability that he beats Matthew is 0.6.
(a) What is the probability that Gareth beats Ben?
(b) What is the probability that Matthew beats Ben?

3. The probability that a train is late arriving at its destination is 0.02. What is the
probability that it is not late?

4. Joshua has bought a trick coin in a joke shop. When he tosses it the probability of

getting a head is . What is the probability of getting a tail?

5. A weather forecaster states that the probability that it will snow tomorrow is .
(a) Find the probability that it does not snow tomorrow.
(b) Is it more likely to snow or not to snow tomorrow?

6. The probability that it will snow during the winter in a certain city is 0.01. What is
the probability that it does not snow?

7. A school basketball team play 20 matches each year. The probability that they win

any match is .
(a) What is the probability that they lose a match?
(b) How many matches can they expect to win each year?
8. When Claire plays battle chess on her home computer the probability that she wins
depends on the level at which she plays the game.

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Level Probability Claire wins

Easy 0.9
Medium 0.4
Hard 0.1

What is the probability that the computer wins if the level is set to:
(a) Medium (b) Hard (c) Easy?

9. A child is selected at random from a school. The probability the child is a girl is

, the probability that the child is left handed is and the probability that the

child wears glasses is .

Find the probabilities that a child selected at random,
(a) is a boy (b) is right handed (c) does not wear glasses.

10. It has been estimated that the probability that a person has blue eyes is .

Is it true that the probability that a person has brown eyes is ?

11. A machine makes compact discs. The probability that a perfect compact disc will
be made by this machine is 0.85.
Work out the probability that a compact disc made by this machine will not be
perfect. (LON)

12. Here are three possible events

A A coin when tossed will come down heads.
B It will snow in August in London
C There will be a baby born tomorrow.

Which of the three events is

(a) most likely to happen?
(b) least likely to happen?
(LON)

13. H

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0 1

A probability line is shown above.

The arrow H on the line shows the probability that, when a coin is tossed, it will
come down 'heads'.

(a)
0 1
Copy the probability line and put an arrow S on the line to show the
probability that it will snow where you live tomorrow.
Explain why you put your arrow in that position.

(b) Put an arrow, L on the line to show the probability that the next lorry you
see travelling on the road will have a male driver.
Explain why you put your arrow in that position.
(MEG)

5.3 Outcome of Two Events

When dealing with probabilities for two events, it is important to be able to identify all
the possible outcomes. Here are examples to show the methods that can be used.

Method A : Systematic Listing

Worked Example 1
For a special meal customers at a pizza parlour can choose a pizza with one of the
following toppings.
Ham
Mushroom
Salami
Peperoni
Tuna
and a drink from the following list
Cola
Diet Cola
Orange
How many possible combinations of toppings and drinks are there?

Solution
Using the first letter of each drink and topping, it is easy to see that Cola (C)) could be
combined with any of the five toppings to give CH, CM, CS, CP, CT. Here 'CH' means
'Cola' drink and 'Ham' topping, etc.

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Similarly, for Diet Cola (D), you have

DH, DM, DS, DP, DT
and for Orange (O)
OH, OM, OS, OP, OT
You can see that there are 3 5 15× = possible outcomes.

This method of listing will always work but it might be slow, particularly if there are
more than 2 choices to be made.

Method B : 2-way Tables

Worked Example 2
A six-sided die and a coin are tossed. List all the possible outcomes.

Solution
The coin can land heads (denoted by H) or tails (T), whilst the die can show 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
or 6. So for heads on the coin, the possible outcomes are
H1, H2, H3, H4, H5 and H6
whilst for tails, they are
T1, T2, T3, T4, T5 and T6.

The listing method used here can be conveniently summarized in a 2-way table.
Die
1 2 3 4 5 6

Coin H H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6
T T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
This method works well but cannot be used if there are more than 2 choices to be made.

Method C : Tree Diagrams

Worked Example 3
A coin is tossed twice. List all the possible outcomes.

Solution
You can use a tree diagram to represent this solution.

1st toss 2nd toss Outcome

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T TT
T
H TH

T HT
H
H HH

Note that 'TH' is not the same as 'HT'.

This is an excellent method, but can lead to problems if you have too many branches.

Exercises
1. Two dice are rolled together. Complete the table below to show all the outcomes as
total scores.
Second die

1 2 3 4 5 6

3
First die

2. Three flavours of ice cream, vanilla (V), mint (M) and raspberry ripple (R), are available at a
shop. Each is served with a topping of either chocolate (C) or strawberry (S).
One possible order is for vanilla ice cream with chocolate topping (VC).
Write a list of all the other possibilities.
3. A bag contains two balls which are the same size. One is green and one is red. You
take a ball out of the bag, put it back, then take another.
Make a list of all the possible outcomes for the colours of the two balls.

4. Three boys, Ben, John and Nigel, decide to hold a competition in the gym. They
will do sit-ups and then press-ups.
If Ben wins the sit-ups and John wins the press-ups, the outcome would be
represented as BJ.
(a) What does NB represent?
(b) Make a list of all the 9 possible outcomes.

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(c) If only Ben and John take part in the competition there will be fewer
possible outcomes. List the outcomes in this case.
(d) If Timothy also takes part in the competition, list all the possible outcomes
for the four competitors.

5. Packets of cornflakes contain a free model dinosaur. There are four different
models, the Brontosaurus (B), the Stagosaurus (S), Tyrannosaurus-Rex (T) and
Diplodocus (D). A mother buys two packets of cornflakes for her children. List all
combinations of free gifts possible when the packets are opened.

6. At a school Christmas Fair three different sorts of prizes can be won in a lucky dip.
One is a cassette tape (C), one is a diary (D) and the other a book (B).
List all the possible outcomes for a girl who has two goes at the lucky dip.

7. For breakfast, Rachel will drink either fruit juice (F) or cold milk (M) and will eat
cornflakes (C), honey-crunch loops (H) or toast (T).
Complete a copy of the table below to show the possible outcomes for her choice
of breakfast.
Drinks

F M

Food T

8. List the possible outcomes when 3 coins are tossed.

9. (a) A bag contains 2 red marbles, 1 blue marble and 1 yellow marble.
A second bag contains 1 red marble, 2 blue marbles and 1 yellow marble.
A marble is drawn from each bag.
Complete the table showing all the possible pairs of colours.

Marble from second bag

R B B Y

R RR RB RB RY

R RR
Marble from
first bag
B BR

Y YR

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(b) 2 marbles are drawn from a third bag.

The probability that they are both of the same colour is .

What is the probability that they are of different colours?
(MEG)

5.4 Finding Probabilities Using Relative

Frequency
Sometimes it is possible to calculate values for the probability of an event by symmetry
arguments, like tossing a coin and getting a head. For other events probabilities can be
estimated by using results of experiments or records of past events.

Worked Example 1
In February 1995 it rained on 18 days. Use this information to estimate the probability
that it rains on a day in February.

Solution
It rained on 18 out of the 28 days, so the relative frequency of rain is
18 9 = .
28 14

So the probability that it rains can be estimated as .

Worked Example 2
Hitesh carries out an experiment with a piece of buttered toast. He drops it 50 times and
finds that 35 times it lands butter side down. Use these results to estimate the probability
that a piece of toast lands butter side down when dropped.

Solution
The toast landed butter side down 35 of the 50 times, so the relative
35 7
frequency is = .
50 10

So the probability that the toast lands butter side down can be estimated as .

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Exercises
1. (a) Conduct an experiment with a drawing pin, by dropping it in the same way a
large number of times. You could drop it 100 times and record whether it lands
point up or point down.
(b) Use your results to estimate the probability that a drawing pin lands point up.

2. (a) Obtain a short stick, such as a cocktail stick. On a sheet of A4 paper draw
parallel lines that are 6 cm apart. Drop the stick onto the sheet of paper a large
number of times and record whether or not it lands on a line.
(b) Use your results to estimate the probability that the stick lands on a line.

3. When you toss a coin you would expect to get a head half of the time.
(a) Toss a coin 20 times and record the results. How well do they compare with
your expectation?
(b) Toss the coin another 30 times, so that you have 50 results. How well do
they compare with your expectation now?

4. Andrew observed that the school bus was late on 6 of the 24 school days in March.
Estimate the probability that the bus was late on any one day.

5. A football team plays on average 40 matches each season and wins 32 of them.
(a) Estimate the probability that this team wins a match.
(b) Give a reason why this probability could change.
6. Six children play regularly in a chess club. The number of games that each child
has won is recorded in the table below.
Player Games Won Games
Lost
Timothy 4 10

Andrew 7 3
Daniella 3 9
Rachel 4 16
Charles 6 12
Maria 12 6
(a) Use this data to find the probability that each child wins a match.
(b) Which child is the best player?
(c) Which child is the worst player?
(d) If Charles played Timothy, who do you think would be most likely to win?

7. A garage records the number of cars that they sell each week over a 24 week
period. The numbers for each week are given below.

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3, 4, 8, 6, 5, 7, 4, 3, 6, 5, 2, 4,
5, 7, 6, 9, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 4, 3, 5.
Use this data to establish the probability that in any week;
(a) more than 5 cars are sold, (b) fewer than 5 cars are sold, (c) exactly 5
cars are sold.

8. A gardener plants 40 seeds and 32 of them produce healthy plants.

(a) Estimate the probability that a seed produces a healthy plant.
(b) If 120 seeds were planted, how many healthy plants can the gardener expect
to obtain?

Investigation
A girl types 3 different letters and 3 different addresses on 3 envelopes. She puts the
letters into the envelopes randomly and sends then to 3 of her friends, A, B and C.
What is the probability that
(a) only one of her friends will receive the correct letter, (b)
only two of them will receive the correct letters?

5.5 Determining Probabilities

When the outcomes of an event are all equally likely, then probabilities can be found
by considering all the possible outcomes.
For example, when you toss a coin there are two possible outcomes, either heads or
tails.

So p(head) =

p(tail) =

The probability of an outcome is given by

number of ways of obtaining outcome

number of possible outcomes

provided all the outcomes are equally likely.

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Worked Example 1
A card is taken at random from a full pack of playing cards with no jokers. What is the
probability that the card:
(a) is an ace, (b) is black,
(c) is a heart, (d) has an even number on it?

Solution
First note that each card is equally likely to be selected, and that there are 52 possible
outcomes.

(a) There are 4 aces, so

p(ace) =

= .
(b) There are 26 black cards, so

p(black) =

= .
(c) There are 13 hearts in the pack, so;

p(heart) =

= .
(d) There are 20 cards with even numbers on them, so;

p(even number) =

= .

Worked Example 2
In a class of 30 children, 16 are girls, 4 wear glasses and 3 are left handed.
A child is chosen at random from the class. What is the probability that this child is:
(a) a girl, (b) right-handed, (c) wearing glasses.

Solution
All the children in the class are equally likely to be selected, when the choice is made at
random.
(a) In the class there are 16 girls, so

p(girl) =

= .

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(b) There are 3 left handed children and so the other 27 must be right handed. So,

p(right handed) =

= .

(c) There are 4 children wearing glasses so,

p(wears glasses) =

= .

Exercises
1. Richard takes a card at random from a full pack of playing cards. What is the
probability that his card:
(a) is a diamond, (b) is a spade, (c) is a seven, (d) is a king,
(e) has a prime number on it?

2. Repeat question 1, for a pack of playing cards containing 2 jokers (a total of 54

cards).
3. When you roll an ordinary die, what is the probability of obtaining:
(a) a six, (b) a five,
(c) an even number, (d) a prime number?
4. A new game includes an octagonal roller with faces numbered from 1 to 8. When
the roller is rolled, what is the probability of obtaining:
(a) a number 8, (b) a number 1,
(c) an odd number, (d) a number greater than 3,
(e) a number less than 3?

5. In a class of 32 children, 20 have school lunches and the rest bring sandwiches.
What is the probability that a child chosen at random from the class brings
sandwiches?

6. In a lucky dip at a school fair, a tub contains 50 prizes at the start of the fair. There
are 20 superballs, 10 pens, 10 toy cars and 10 packets of sweets. What is the
probability that the first person to visit the lucky dip:
(a) wins a superball, (b) does not win a pen,
(c) wins a packet of sweets, (d) does not win a toy car.

If the first person wins a pen, what is the probability that the second person:
(e) wins a pen, (f) does not win a toy car,
(g) wins a packet of sweets?

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7. A coach sets off from Plymouth with 18 passengers. It stops at Exeter, where
another 12 passengers join the coach. At Taunton it stops again and 20 more
passengers get on board. When the coach arrives at its destination all the
passengers get off and one is chosen at random to be interviewed about the journey.
Find the probabilities that this passenger:
(a) was on the coach for the whole journey,
(b) got on the coach at Exeter,
(c) got on the coach at Exeter or Plymouth, (d) got on the coach at Exeter or
Taunton.

8. Liam has the following coins in his pocket:

£1, 50p, 20p, 10p, 2p.
He selects one coin at random to put in a charity collection box.
What is the probability that he:
(a) gives more than 20p,
(b) has less than £1 left in his pocket,
(c) has more than 70p left in his pocket,
(d) gives away less than half the money in his pocket?
9. Five different types of model dinosaurs are being given away in cornflakes packets.
A model dinosaur is put into each packet at random and five dinosaurs are needed
for a complete set.
(a) Ben already has 3 of the 5 models. What is the probability he gets a different
one in the next packet he opens?
(b) Adam only needs one more dinosaur to complete his set. What is the
probability that he gets this dinosaur in the next packet he opens?
(c) Ian has only one dinosaur in his collection. What is the probability that he
gets the same one in his next packet?

10. A bag contains 5 red counters, 3 green counters and 2 blue counters. Counters are
taken out of the bag at random, but are not put back into the bag.
(a) What is the probability that the first counter taken out is green?
(b) If the first counter is green, what is the probability that the second counter is
green?
(c) If the first two counters are green, what is the probability that the third
counter is green?
(d) If a red counter is followed by a blue counter, what is the probability that the
third counter is green?

11. Graham has a bag of 30 marbles. There are 7 red marbles in the bag. He chooses a
marble at random from the bag.

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What is the probability that

(a) he gets a red marble? (b) he gets a marble which is not red?
(NEAB)

12. (a) Make a copy of the line below and mark with an H the probability of getting a
head when one coin is tossed.
(b) On the same line, mark with an S the probability of getting a 5 when a six
sided dice is thrown.

1
0 2 1
2
(LON)
13. In a raffle 200 tickets are sold.
(a) Helen buys one ticket. What is the probability that she wins first prize?

There are lots of prizes.

(b) The probability that Helen wins a prize is . How many prizes are there?
(SEG)

14. Shara is shown a selection of ski-holiday brochures. There are three for Italy, two
for Austria and five for Switzerland.
Shara takes one of these brochures at random.
(a) What is the probability that it is for Italy?
(b) What is the probability that it is not for Austria?
(SEG)

15. To play a game you spin the pointer. MINT

MINT
You win the prize on which the pointer stops. TOFFEE
PEN
Richard has one spin.
MINT MINT
(a) Which prize is Richard most likely to win?
(b) Explain your answer to part (a) MINT MINT
TOFFEE
TOFFEE
Donna has one spin. MINT
MINT
(c) Make a copy of the line shown below and
mark with a P the probability that Donna
will win a pen.

(d) On the line mark with a W the probability that Donna will win a watch.

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0 1
(LON)

Just For Fun

Arron, Paul and Mary repeatedly take turns tossing a die. Arron begins; Paul always
follows Arron; Mary always follows Paul; and Arron always follows Mary. What is the
probability that Mary will be the first one to toss a six?

Investigations
1. How many pupils must you gather together so as to ensure that at least two pupils
have birthdays falling in the same month?

2. A secondary school has an enrolment of 1100. Is it possible that there will be four
pupils in the school whose birthdays fall on the same day of the year? Explain your
answers.

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