Guidelines on the Definition and

Characterization of Extreme Weather and

Climate Events

2023 edition
WEATHER CLIMATE WATER

WMO-No. 1310
Guidelines on the Definition and
Characterization of Extreme Weather and
Climate Events

2023 edition

WMO-No. 1310
WMO-No. 1310

© World Meteorological Organization, 2023

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CONTENTS
Page

PREFACE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  v

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  vi

PURPOSE OF THE GUIDELINES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1

INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2

DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME EVENTS ASSOCIATED

WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4
Temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Heatwave  5
Cold wave  5
Precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Extreme precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Drought  8

MONITORING EXTREME EVENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  10

The role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
The role of WMO Regional Climate Centres. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Database of extreme events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  12

ANNEX 1. RESULTS FROM THE WMO MEMBERS SURVEY ON EXTREME EVENTS . . . . . . . .  14

ANNEX 2. EXAMPLE REPORTS ON EXTREME EVENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  16

PREFACE

The climate is how the atmosphere behaves over a long period of time (typically defined as at
least a 30-year period). Descriptions of the climate inform us about the average weather, as well
as other aspects of weather patterns and distribution of meteorological parameters – including
anomalous, rare and extreme events.

WMO plays a critical role in understanding and monitoring climate variability and change
and related extreme events. It is therefore crucial for the Commission for Weather, Climate,
Water and Related Environmental Services and Applications (SERCOM) to continuously assist
WMO Members by providing guidance on various aspects of extreme events, so that efficient
monitoring, forecasting and early warning systems are adequately deployed. This constitutes
part of the WMO contribution to building resilient societies able to cope with climate variability
and adapt to climate change.

The guidance provided in the present document focuses on generic definitions and
methodologies for the characterization of extreme weather and climate events. This guidance
has become timely for ensuring consistent exchange of information that underpins the contents
of the WMO State of the Climate reports, climate watches, climate change studies and other
emerging applications.

Ian Lisk
President, WMO Commission for Weather, Climate, Water and
Related Environmental Services and Applications (SERCOM)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors

Fumin Ren, China Meteorological Administration, China

Dsuhmanta Pattanaik, India Meteorological Department, India
Randall Cerveny, Arizona State University, United States of America
Blair Trewin, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Andreas Walter, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany
José Luis Stella, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina
Boris Sherstyukov, Roshydromet, Russian Federation
Kouakou Bernard Dje, Côte d’Ivoire
Panmao Zhai, China
Maria de los Milagros Skansi, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina
Ahira Sánchez-Lugo, USA
Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Indonesia
Mirjana Ivanov, Montenegro
Manola Brunet, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain
Fatima Driouech, Morocco
Maya Körber, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany
Kiyotoshi Takahashi, Japan
John Kennedy, Met Office, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Jessica Blunden, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – National Centers for
Environmental Information, USA
Freja Vamborg, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK
Atsushi Goto, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan
Stefan Rösner, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany
Peter Bissoli, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany

Reviewers

Omar Baddour (WMO)

Atsushi Goto (WMO)
Peer Hechler (WMO)
Claire Ransom (WMO)
Nirina Ravalitera (WMO)
PURPOSE OF THE GUIDELINES

Monitoring and warning of extreme weather and climate events is one of the highest priorities of
WMO and its Members. At the national level, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
(NMHSs) design and operate monitoring systems for extreme events, based on local conditions
and sectoral applications. The varying needs and the heterogeneous climate from country to
country means that the design of these systems, and the underlying definitions and thresholds of
events, differ significantly.

At the regional scale, Regional Climate Centres also have a mandate to monitor climate
conditions and to issue advisories, such as climate watches, about extreme weather and
climate events at timescales beyond weather forecasting. It is therefore very important to use a
consistent approach including common generic definitions and characterization of these events.

The purpose of the present guidelines is not to change the practice at the national level. Instead,
it provides guidance for generic definitions, which are useful in contributing to WMO State of
the Climate reports, climate watches, climate change studies and other emerging applications,
including the recently adopted methodology for cataloguing hazardous events (WMO-CHE)
(see World Meteorological Congress: Abridged Final Report of the Eighteenth Session (WMO-No. 1236),
Resolution 12 (Cg-18) – WMO Methodology for Cataloguing Hazardous Weather, Climate,
Water and Space Events). These applications require regional and/or international exchange of
information on extreme events.

The focus of the present guidelines is on extreme events related to temperature and
precipitation, for several reasons:

• They form some of the most challenging events for operational monitoring at the
global scale, in all regions. This is due to the varying contexts and needs, making the
characterization of these event dependent on local conditions. Many of these extreme
events refer to heat and cold waves, heavy precipitation with flooding, and drought.

• Other events such as tropical storms and cyclones already have well-established common
definitions, characterization and infrastructure to monitor them at regional scales. It should
be highlighted that wider observation and data collection would be required to define
other types of weather/climate events, such as hail, lightning, sandstorms and others.

• As temperature and precipitation are the best-observed elements historically in most

countries, extreme events related to temperature and precipitation benefit from the best
available current and historical data, which allows use of robust statistical methodologies
for characterizing these events in a consistent manner.

• Extremes in temperature and precipitation occur in most regions and countries, and as
such, monitoring them is of use across all WMO regional centres. Members that have
the data and capability to monitor other extremes may still wish to use the concepts and
structure promoted in the present guidelines for those extremes.
INTRODUCTION

Examples of extreme weather and climate events include, but are not limited to, heatwaves, cold
waves, floods, extreme precipitation, drought, tornadoes and tropical cyclones. Human-induced
climate change beyond natural climate variability, including more frequent and intense extreme
events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and
people (IPCC, 2022).

It is essential for meteorological communities to improve the understanding and characterization

of extreme weather and climate events in time and space with regionally and globally consistent
methodologies. Such improvement is based upon their definition and the computation of
their thresholds, so that efficient systems for monitoring or even forecasting these events can
be deployed as part of building resilient societies able to cope with climate variability and to
adapt to climate change. In line with such a concept, the United Nations Office for Disaster
Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and International Science Council (ISC) have published the report
entitled Hazard Definition and Classification Review – Technical Report (UNDRR/ISC, 2020), and
its supplement Hazard Information Profiles (UNDRR/ISC, 2021). Although the report and its
supplement cover wider areas beyond the meteorological and climatological areas, they
are useful for risk reduction and resilience-building against the increasingly interconnected,
cascading and complex nature of natural and human-induced hazards.

Since climate varies regionally, the definition of an extreme weather or climate event and
its threshold will differ from location to location. The definition is also dependent on the
infrastructure of individual countries and, in most countries, on the seasonal cycle. In other
words, an extreme value of a particular climate element in one location may be within the
normal range in a different location. For example, hundreds of people died in northern India
due to the shortage of shelters during a cold wave in the northern hemisphere winter of
2011/2012 (WCDMP-No. 80), with temperatures which are considered ”normal” spring or
autumn conditions in northern Europe. There are also practical reasons, in addition to natural
and geographic reasons, for the varying definitions, such as a particular societal sector requiring
specific thresholds to take action. This is the case, for example, in defining heatwaves in a heat–
health warning system, for which a heatwave is defined specifically according to the potential
impacts on human health.

To provide consistent and authoritative guidance to Members on best practices in the domain
of weather and climate extremes, the former WMO Commission for Climatology (CCl) Task
Team on the Definition of Extreme Weather and Climate Events (TT-DEWCE) reviewed the
existing literature on the subject. Initial draft guidelines were produced by the team, providing
an approach for defining, characterizing and reporting data on extreme events. In 2019, this
work was taken on board by the new Commission for Weather, Climate, Water and Related
Environmental Services and Applications (SERCOM), which took over duties undertaken by the
CCl, among others.

WMO has adopted Resolution 12 (Cg-18) – WMO Methodology for Cataloguing Hazardous
Weather, Climate, Water and Space Weather Events, which is referred to, for simplicity, as the
WMO Cataloguing Hazardous Events (WMO-CHE) (World Meteorological Congress: Abridged Final
Report of the Eighteenth Session (WMO-No. 1236)).

The methodology provides an approach for cataloguing hazardous events using attributes such
as Event identifier, Originator, Event start, Event end and Event type. Other attributes provide
additional information such as Hazard specification and Description of event. The current
guidelines build on the work started by the WMO TT-DEWCE and consider new developments
and emerging needs.
 INTRODUCTION 3

The guidelines also provide a template in Annex 2 for providing data required for monitoring
extreme events, such as for use in the WMO State of the Climate reports, at both global and
regional levels. It is expected that adherence to these guidelines will facilitate attribution of
extreme weather and climate events and verification of forecasting and prediction systems.
DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME EVENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

The former WMO Commission for Climatology Task Team on the Definition of Extreme Weather
and Climate Events (TT-DEWCE) issued a survey to WMO Members on existing practices for
the definition of heatwave, cold wave, drought and extreme precipitation (hereafter, the WMO
Members survey on extreme events). From the results of the survey (see Annex 1), the Task
Team concluded that a single standard definition for an extreme event may not be useful for all
purposes, and that NMHSs might use different definitions depending on the purpose served at
the national level; in some cases, the definition might also vary at sub-national scales for large
national territories.

As a general principle, the monitoring of an extreme event should consider the intensity and the
temporal and spatial characteristics of the event. Its definition should be impact-independent,
with the aim of developing a system that can report consistently on the nature, occurrence and
evolution of the event. As a general guidance for characterizing an extreme event, the following
properties can be used:

Magnitude. This measures the departure from a baseline or a predefined threshold. It reflects
the extremity of the event. The baselines and thresholds should be defined by NMHSs at the
national and sub-national scale, according to the local climate conditions and applications.
The baselines and thresholds should be maintained in an official database and available for
consultation by users.

Duration. At an individual location, the duration is defined as the difference between the time
at which the event began (meaning when the threshold is exceeded for the first time) and the
time it ended. The overall duration of the event at a wider scale including several locations is
defined as the difference between the time at which the event began at a station where it was
first recorded and the time it ended at the station where it was last recorded.

Extent. This is defined as the geographical area where stations recorded the event from the
start to the end. It can be in the form of a percentage of the number of stations where the event
was recorded relative to the whole observing network. However, this method can be considered
a reasonable estimate only if the station density is well-distributed in the country or territory. If
this is not the case, and the density is poorly distributed, the computation should make use of a
suitable gridding method.

Examples of the characterization of extreme events using these properties are

provided in Annex 2.

Members may wish to consider using indices in their assessment of extreme events. A set of
standard indices for monitoring extreme climate and weather events at the station level has been
defined by the former Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), and can
be used where appropriate. Further details on the use of the ETCCDI indices are available in the
Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation
(WMO/TD-No. 1500). The definition of the indices, and the software to use in their calculation,
can be found, for instance, online (https://​etccdi​.pacificclimate​.org/​) as well as via Climpact
(https://​climpact​-sci​.org/​), which is software developed by WMO experts and which calculates
climate indices for use by stakeholders in various socioeconomic sectors.

It is also useful to report information such as the impact associated with the occurrence of an
extreme event. In addition to the socioeconomic dimension of extreme events, the collection of
impact information in a systematic manner provides crucial data for several applications, such
as in impact-based forecasting systems, vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategies, and
many others. Therefore, although impact information is not included in the definition of extreme
events, it should be part of any extreme event monitoring, to the extent that the information
is available.
 DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPERATURE AND 5
PRECIPITATION

Temperature

Heatwave

Definition

A heatwave is a pervasive meteorological phenomenon resulting in an increase in many risks,

such as health-related or economic risks, including increased human mortality, agricultural
losses, wildfires and power shortages, among others. NMHSs are mandated to provide heatwave
advisories to help decision makers to minimize these risks and potential damages. Currently,
there is no universally accepted definition of heatwave. However, many Members have adopted
local criteria for issuing heatwave advisories.

According to the International Meteorological Vocabulary (WMO-No. 182), a heatwave is: “Marked
warming of the air, or the invasion of very warm air, over a large area; it usually lasts from a
few days to a few weeks”. The publication Heatwaves and Health: Guidance on Warning-System
Development (WMO-No. 1142) developed jointly by WMO and the World Health Organization
(WHO) provides practical guidance for addressing human health impacts and warnings
associated with heatwaves. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change glossary (IPCC,
2021a), a heatwave is “a period of abnormally hot weather, often defined with reference to a
relative temperature threshold, lasting from two days to months”.

Even though the WMO and IPCC definitions broadly describe the event, the definitions are
not sufficient in guiding NMHSs to develop practical methodologies and tools for a heatwave
monitoring system that would allow comparisons across borders. Based on the above literature,
the TT-DEWCE recognized that for international exchange of information on heatwaves, it
is particularly useful to adopt a simple approach allowing consistent analysis of heatwave
information at regional and global levels.

Therefore, a heatwave can be defined as a period of marked and unusually hot weather
persisting for at least two consecutive days.

A warm spell, in contrast, refers to a persistent period of abnormally warm weather for the time
of year. A warm spell can occur at any time of the year, whereas a heatwave is defined with
respect to the highest values observed during the year and is therefore most likely to occur
during the warm season in most climates.

Characterization

It is recommended that indices, based on local climatological conditions, be used to objectively

characterize a heatwave. The indices can be based simply on one meteorological element
(such as minimum temperature (Tmin) or maximum temperature (Tmax)) or computed using
a combination of multiple variables such as temperature, humidity and even wind speed.
Thresholds can also be defined, departure from which can reflect the abnormally hot conditions
and extremity of the event. Examples of metrics and additional information are available in the
WMO/WHO joint guidance (Heatwaves and Health: Guidance on Warning-System Development
(WMO-No. 1142)) and on the Global Heat Health Information Network (GHHIN) website
(https://​ghhin​.org), maintained by the WHO/WMO Joint Office for Climate and Health.

Cold wave

Definition

A cold wave is a meteorological event generally characterized by a sharp drop in air temperature
near the Earth’s surface, leading to extremely low values that can be associated with hazardous
weather, such as frost and icing. A cold wave often causes severe impacts on human health and
agriculture, leads to high heating costs, and can even result in mortality for human beings and
6 GUIDELINES ON THE DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE
EVENTS

livestock. IPCC (2007) noted that cold waves continue to be a problem in northern latitudes,
where very low temperatures can be reached in a few hours and extend over long periods.
However, there is still a lack of a clear and consistent definition for cold wave events globally.
Thus, after reviewing the existing definitions in publications and some countries' operational
activities, the TT-DEWCE developed the following guidelines for WMO Members for defining
and characterizing cold waves.

Typically, a cold wave is associated with invasion of very cold air caused by a polar or high-
latitude air mass displacement to lower latitudes. In some cases it is associated with or
reinforced by long-wave radiative cooling under a blocking high or other clear sky atmospheric
circulation pattern.

According to the International Meteorological Vocabulary (WMO-No. 182), a cold wave is “a marked
cooling of the air, or the invasion of very cold air, over a large area”. The National Weather Service
in the United States of America defines a cold wave as “a rapid fall in temperature within 24 hours
to temperatures requiring substantially increased protection to agriculture, industry, commerce
and social activities” (AMS, 2022). In China a cold wave is defined as a dramatic cooling weather
process, with large-scale cold air from the high latitudes invading the middle and lower latitude
regions. Cold waves are also simply defined as persistent extreme low temperature events,
sustaining specified temperatures below certain thresholds over a certain minimum number of
days (Radinović and Ćurić, 2012; Peterson et al., 2013). The existing terminology helps provide
a broad scope for understanding the subject matter of the phenomenon and its underlying
physical factors.

The impacts of cold weather may vary by region or by season. As an example, a temperature
below 0 °C may have little impact if it occurs in winter but could have very large impacts if it
occurs at a critical stage of crop development in spring. Members should consider the impacts of
events in deciding which metrics to use for monitoring cold events.

Therefore, a cold wave can be defined as marked and unusually cold weather, which can be
associated with a sharp and significant drop of air temperatures near the Earth’s surface and persisting for
at least two consecutive days.

A cold spell, in contrast, refers to a persistent period of abnormally cold weather. A cold spell
occurs at any time of the year, whereas use of the term “cold wave” is normally reserved for
events occurring during the cold season.

Characterization

It is recommended that indices based on local climatological conditions be used to objectively

characterize a cold wave. Such indices can be based simply on one meteorological element (such
as Tmin or Tmax) or computed using a combination of variables including temperature, wind
speed, rate at which temperature has fallen in the last 24 hours, and so forth. Thresholds can
also be defined, departure from which can reflect the abnormally cold conditions and extremity
of the event.

Precipitation

Extreme precipitation

Definition

Extreme precipitation events often result, either directly or through associated floods,
landslides and other phenomena, in fatalities, infrastructure damage and major agricultural
and socioeconomic losses. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2021b) reported that the
frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have likely increased over a majority of
land regions with good observational coverage. Heavy precipitation is also expected to become
 DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPERATURE AND 7
PRECIPITATION

generally more intense and more frequent with additional global warming. Since precipitation
patterns differ widely throughout the world, it is not possible to use a single definition of the
term “extreme precipitation event” that is suitable for all regions. Extreme precipitation events
are also of interest on a wide range of timescales; for example, flash flooding is often driven
by rainfall at very short timescales (minutes to hours), while large rivers and reservoirs often
respond to rainfall at longer timescales of the order of several days.

It is generally recognized that when a precipitation event is considered extreme, it relates to one
of the following two contexts: (1) it exceeds a certain threshold, that is, a fixed threshold, that has
a certain associated impact; or (2) it is considered to be extreme due to its rarity, based on either
a percentile threshold or its return period. In the case of a percentile-based threshold, the rarity
of occurrence tends to take the form of the upper 90th, 95th and 99th percentile of precipitation.
Such percentile-based thresholds can be derived from statistical cumulative density functions
generated from the observed data or some conceptual distributions for precipitation extremes
(such as generalized extreme value (GEV)). When considering the most extreme precipitation
events, return period information on the extremely rare events (100 years or more) is important
for many engineering applications.

The definition of extreme precipitation from the WMO Members survey on extreme events
reflects the key finding that the majority of NMHSs define extreme precipitation with a certain
threshold on varying timescales, ranging from 1 hour to several days, taking into account
seasonality. In some cases, percentile-based thresholds are also used by Members. Having
considered these, the present guidelines propose using a definition of extreme precipitation
event that corresponds to the need for the reporting of extreme precipitation at regional and
global levels, where data are most consistently available at daily timescales.

Therefore, an extreme precipitation event can be defined as a marked and unusual

precipitation event occurring during a period of hours to a longer period of several days, with total
precipitation largely exceeding local average conditions of that period.

For reporting extreme precipitation events, hourly totals, daily totals, or totals over the period of
the event are recommended.

Characterization

It is recommended that indices, based on local climatological conditions, be used to objectively

characterize an extreme precipitation event. Thresholds can also be defined, departure from
which can reflect the abnormal precipitation conditions and extremity of the precipitation event.

While fixed thresholds are more easily applicable for many purposes, percentile-based thresholds
are more evenly distributed in space and are arguably more meaningful and applicable when
sufficient observational data exist. Precipitation can also vary by large amounts over short
distances, particularly in complex topography, so percentile-based thresholds are more likely
to produce spatially coherent results than absolute thresholds do. The flexibility to define
the percentile level for extreme precipitation events also allows the analysis to address very
rare events, for instance, those exceeding the 99th percentile. Statistical modelling based on
probability distribution of daily or multi-day rainfall could be used for assessing the return period
of an extreme precipitation event, which is useful in some applications such as in water resource
management and hydrology, as well as in research for assessing the change in extreme event
return periods.

On the other hand, the use of percentiles can be of limited value in dry regions in particular (for
example, in some arid regions, even the 99th percentile can be zero or close to zero, at least at
certain times of the year).
8 GUIDELINES ON THE DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE
EVENTS

Drought

Definition

Drought, as a natural climatological phenomenon that occurs in all climates, can differ greatly
from other extreme events.

Unlike other extreme events that are immediately detectable, droughts typically develop
slowly, making it difficult to determine the onset and end in real time. The impacts of drought
can be devastating and costly, affecting society, agriculture, infrastructure, the economy
and ecosystems. To facilitate communication, management and response, drought can be
categorized into four general types: (1) meteorological; (2) agricultural; (3) hydrological; and
(4) socioeconomic. Meteorological drought is driven by the atmospheric conditions resulting in
the absence or reduction of precipitation over a period of time. Meteorological drought can lead
to agricultural drought, identified by precipitation shortages, higher evapotranspiration and soil
moisture deficits. Meteorological drought can also lead to hydrological drought, which develops
from depleted surface or subsurface water supplies. Socioeconomic drought is the imbalance
in supply and demand of water, or the effect of water shortages on the economy (such as crop
losses) and society (such as impacts on health). These different types of droughts have one thing
in common: they all begin with a deficiency of precipitation (meteorological drought).

While there are substantial regional variations, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2021b)
found increases in agricultural drought in a number of regions and decreases only in one region
(northern Australia). It is expected that the land area affected by increasing drought frequency
and intensity will grow with additional global warming.

Because of the complexity of drought and how it affects many aspects of life and a wide variety
of sectors, it is not possible to develop a single definition of drought that can be applied in
all circumstances, particularly when data required to support more complex drought indices
may not be available in many countries. In order to take initial steps in defining drought for
the purpose of the present document, the focus here is solely on meteorological drought and
its indices.

From a meteorological perspective, drought is defined in the International Meteorological

Vocabulary (WMO-No. 182) as a “prolonged absence or marked deficiency of precipitation”. For
international exchange of information on drought, it is particularly useful to adopt a common
approach that allows consistent analysis of drought at regional and global levels and that aligns
with the WMO International Drought Management Programme (IDMP) and the Global Water
Programme (GWP).

Therefore, according to the IDMP Glossary (https://​w ww​.droughtmanagement​.info/​find/​

glossary), a drought can be defined as a: (1) Prolonged absence or marked deficiency of precipitation.
(2) Period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of precipitation to cause a serious
hydrological imbalance.

Drought should not be confused with aridity, which is a climate characteristic relating to
insufficient or inadequate precipitation to maintain vegetation, according to the International
Meteorological Vocabulary (WMO-No. 182). In other words, drought is a temporary climate
phenomenon, while aridity is a permanent climate feature in areas that typically experience low
precipitation throughout the year. An example of an arid place is the Sahara, a desert region
where the annual precipitation total is often below 25 mm per year. The IDMP recently published
Drought and Water Scarcity (WMO-No. 1284), which highlights the difference between these
phenomena, and the increasing difficulty of separating them, due to climate change.
 DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPERATURE AND 9
PRECIPITATION

Characterization

Drought can be numerically characterized using indices that rely on precipitation deficits, often
integrated with temperature and other variables that affect evapotranspiration and soil moisture.
Several indices in different countries assess drought using solely precipitation deficits in various
ways, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Other indices make use of additional
variables. For instance, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (developed in the 1960s and still in
use today) uses precipitation, temperature and local available water content data to assess soil
moisture (Palmer, 1965). From a hydrological perspective, drought is defined as “a period of
abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged to give rise to a shortage of water as evidenced by
below-normal streamflow and lake levels and/or the depletion of soil moisture and a lowering of
groundwater levels” (Technical Regulations (WMO-No. 49), Volume III).

In December 2009, 44 drought experts from 22 countries met in Lincoln, USA, to discuss
the development of standards for drought indices and guidelines for drought early warning
systems. One of their recommendations was to encourage the use of the SPI to characterize
meteorological droughts, and to provide this information on NMHS websites, in addition to the
indices currently used. Another outcome of this meeting was the creation of a comprehensive
user manual for the SPI, which provides a description of the index, the computation methods,
examples of where it is currently used, its strengths and limitations, mapping capabilities, and
how it can be applied. For additional information on the recommendations from the meeting,
see The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal Meteorological Drought Index Recommended
(Hayes et al., 2011).

The suggestion to use the SPI as a drought index is mainly due to its simplicity, as precipitation is
the only variable it considers. The SPI helps quantify the precipitation deficit, since it is based on
the probability of precipitation for any timescale. The probabilities are standardized, where zero
represents the median precipitation amount, a negative index represents dry conditions (less
than median precipitation), and a positive index represents wet conditions (greater than median
precipitation).

When using the SPI, drought is considered to have started when the SPI value is ≤ −1.0 and
to have ended when the SPI value becomes positive. Soil moisture conditions respond to
precipitation anomalies on a relatively short timescale. Groundwater, streamflow and reservoir
storage reflect the longer-term precipitation anomalies. Therefore, for example, when reporting
drought for climate monitoring (monitoring meteorological drought) it may be useful to
look at a 1- or 2-month SPI. For agriculture applications (monitoring agricultural drought),
anywhere from a 1-month to 6-month SPI may be useful; and for hydrological analyses and
applications (monitoring hydrological drought), an SPI in the range of 6 to 24 months or longer
may be useful.

For more information on how to compute the SPI, see the Standardized Precipitation Index User
Guide (WMO-No. 1090), and the Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices (WMO-No. 1173).

Some modifications to the SPI have been developed in recent years to overcome some
shortcomings. For WMO Regional Association (RA) VI, a modified version was published by
Pietzsch and Bissolli (2011), which applies some corrections to monthly SPI especially in arid
regions, where the precipitation distribution differs greatly from a normal distribution. Vicente-
Serrano et al. (2009) extended the SPI concept by including evaporation (which requires
additional data, especially temperature), resulting in a modified index called SPEI (Standardized
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). This is also used operationally, for example, in the Global
Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) drought index (Ziese et al., 2014).
MONITORING EXTREME EVENTS

The role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

A consistent and systematic approach to monitoring extreme events is needed for

characterization and reporting. This is particularly important when the monitoring information
feeds into regional or international analysis systems. This is the case for monitoring information
that supports global assessment of the climate, the WMO annual State of the Climate reports
(global and regional) and any climate products on extremes that rely on input from countries
and regions. The approach should enable NMHSs to identify and report extreme events
routinely, albeit having different operational definitions of the extreme events for local use.
Generally speaking, it is beneficial to use gridded data to compute the fundamental physical
properties of extreme events, including magnitude, duration and extent. For international
exchange, however, station-based data sets may be needed when there is a lack of gridded
data. In such cases, the areal extent of an event could be provided in the form of a percentage of
stations reporting the event out of the total observing network.

It is also important to report on the geographical location where an event has been recorded. To
the extent possible, the reported location should include the geographical position of the centre
of the event (such as where the maximum and minimum values were observed, or where the
centre of the damage is located), the longitude and latitude of the area affected by the event,
and the name of the affected city, region, district, river basin or other geographical area.

In many cases, NMHSs have additional data and information, which are not necessarily available
internationally. This can include data and information from additional national station networks,
but also from other sources, such as from radars or regional limited-area models with higher
resolution, or impact data from local authorities or local media. Therefore, it is highly valuable
and desirable that each NMHS set up a regular national extreme event monitoring system, with
appropriate documentation, either in national reports or in a database.

The role of WMO Regional Climate Centres

In general, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) are mandated to provide data, monitoring and
forecasting products to enable WMO Members to provide better climate services (Bissolli et al.,
WMO Bulletin, 65 (1); Bissolli et al., 2020).

At the regional level, RCCs also have a mandate to monitor climate anomalies and extremes
occurring in their regions. The role of RCCs in monitoring extremes is critically important, as it
provides the larger geographical context necessary to understand the dynamic mechanisms that
trigger the extremes, such as the large-scale climate variability modes, including atmospheric
and oceanic variation patterns and oscillations. RCCs therefore rely on access to as many high-
quality observational data as possible, including long time series, in order to be in a position to
apply region-wide approaches for identifying and mapping extremes. In this regard, calculating
gridded data for anomalies on common reference time frames and percentiles allows for
comparable information across the area under consideration. Such monitoring information is
provided on daily up to annual timescales.

Sub-monthly to seasonal information is a critical starting point for issuing climate watch
advisories. Combined with (objective) information from sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts, areas
can be identified for which extremes may be expected in a period beyond weather forecasts,
typically a couple of weeks to a season ahead. The WMO Guidelines on Climate Watches (WMO/
TD-No. 1269) are currently under review.

In addition to monitoring current climate conditions, RCCs also provide information for
monitoring longer-term climate change.
 MONITORING EXTREME EVENTS 11

Another important task of RCCs in extreme event monitoring is collecting national information
from NMHSs and other available sources, and summarizing and evaluating the information
in relation to large-scale, cross-border phenomena, usually in the form of RCC reports such as
monthly, seasonal or annual bulletins, monthly summaries of extreme events or other specialized
reports. The operation and maintenance of a regional event database is also highly desirable (see
following section).

Database of extreme events

It is important that extreme events information is recorded in a consistent and systematic way so
that integration of information from national databases to regional databases (and vice versa) is
made with the least transformation and interface software as possible, as these could potentially
lead to transmission and conversion errors.

At the NMHS level, such databases can be built as part of a single integrated and administered
climate data management system (see Climate Data Management System Specifications (WMO-
No. 1131)). This would allow optimization of IT equipment and staff resources, with the
additional benefit of a single governance and system administration, which are critical for
efficient upgrades, security and maintenance of the database.

In addition, there are specific needs for data collection in the context of WMO State of the
Climate reports. For the purpose of the present guidelines it is desirable that databases of
extreme events contain an appropriate machine readable identifier of the event (for example,
Universally Unique Identifiers (UUID)), categories (for example, heatwave, flood, and so forth),
start and end date, linkage to large-scale patterns (for example, high-/low-pressure systems), a
short description of the event and its related impact, measurement data of the extreme values,
ranking in a long-term series, affected area (at least country or subregion, county/province), and
the source of information.
REFERENCES

American Meteorological Society (AMS). Cold wave. In Glossary of Meteorology; AMS, 2022. https://​glossary​
.ametsoc​.org/​wiki/​Cold​_wave.
Bissolli, P.; Cacic, I.; Mächel, H. et al. Climate Risk Early Warning Systems in Europe. WMO Bulletin, 65 (1)
– Hotter, Drier, Wetter: Face the Future, 28–31; World Meteorological Organization (WMO):
Geneva, 2016.
Bissolli, P.; Mächel, H.; Körber, M. et al. The WMO Regional Climate Centre – Provider of Climate Services
for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Europe. Meteorologische Zeitschrift
2020, 29 (5), 349–353. https://​doi​.org/​10​.1127/​metz/​2020/​0938.
Hayes, M.; Svoboda, M.; Wall, N. et al. The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal
Meteorological Drought Index Recommended. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
2011, 92 (4), 485–488. https://​doi​.org/​10​.1175/​2010BAMS3103​.1.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change; Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M. et al., Eds.; Cambridge University Press:
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 2007. https://​www​.ipcc​.ch/​report/​ar4/​wg1/​.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Annex VII: Glossary; Matthews, J. B. R.; Möller, V.; van
Diemen, R. et al., Eds. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Masson-
Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A. et al., Eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, USA, 2021a. https://​www​.ipcc​.ch/​report/​ar6/​wg1/​.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A. et al., Eds.; Cambridge University
Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 2021b. https://​www​.ipcc​.ch/​report/​
sixth​-assessment​-report​-working​- group ​-i/​.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change; Portner, H.-O.; Roberts, D. C.; Tignor, M. et al., Eds.; Cambridge
University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 2022. https://​www​.ipcc​.ch/​
report/​ar6/​wg2/​.
Palmer, W. C. Meteorological Drought; Research Paper No. 45; U.S. Weather Bureau: Washington, USA, 1965.
https://​www​.droughtmanagement​.info/​literature/​USWB​_ Meteorological​_ Drought​_1965​.pdf.
Peterson, T. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Stott, P. A. et al. (Eds.). Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate
Perspective [Special supplement]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2013, 94 (9),
S1–S74. https://​www​.jstor​.org/​stable/​26218715.
Pietzsch, S.; Bissolli, P. A. Modified Drought Index for WMO RA VI. Advances in Science and Research 2011,
6 (1), 275–279. https://​doi​.org/​10​. 5194/​asr​- 6 ​-275 ​-2011.
Radinović, D.; Ćurić, M. Measuring Scales for Daily Temperature Extremes, Precipitation and Wind Velocity.
Meteorological Applications 2014, 21 (3), 461–465. https://​doi​.org/​10​.1002/​met​.1356.
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)/International Science Council (ISC). Hazard
Definition and Classification Review – Technical Report; UNDRR: Geneva, 2020. https://​www​.undrr​
.org/​publication/​hazard​- definition​-and​- classification​-review​-technical​-report.
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)/International Science Council (ISC). Hazard
Information Profiles: Supplement to Hazard Definition and Classification Review – Technical Report;
UNDRR: Geneva, 2021. https://​www​.undrr​.org/​publication/​hazard​-information​-profiles​-hips.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Beguería, S.; López-Moreno, J. I. A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global
Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate 2009,
23 (7), 1696-1718. https://​doi​.org/​10​.1175/​2009JCLI2909​.1.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). International Meteorological Vocabulary (WMO-No. 182).
Geneva, 1992.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Guidelines on Climate Watches (WMO/TD-No. 1269).
Geneva, 2005.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in
Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation (WMO/TD-No. 1500). Climate Data and Monitoring
WCDMP-No. 72. Geneva, 2009.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide (WMO-No. 1090).
Geneva, 2012.
 REFERENCES 13

World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Assessment of the Observed Extreme Conditions During Late Boreal
Winter 2011/2012 (WCDMP-No. 80); WMO: Geneva, 2013.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Climate Data Management System Specifications (WMO-
No. 1131). Geneva, 2014.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). World Meteorological Congress: Abridged Final Report of the
Eighteenth Session (WMO-No. 1236). Geneva, 2019.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Technical Regulations (WMO-No. 49), Volume III.
Geneva, 2022.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/World Health Organization (WHO). Heatwaves and Health:
Guidance on Warning-System Development. (WMO-No. 1142). Geneva, 2015.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/Global Water Partnership (GWP). Handbook of Drought
Indicators and Indices (WMO-No. 1173). Geneva, 2016.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/Global Water Partnership (GWP). Drought and Water Scarcity
(WMO-No. 1284). Geneva, 2022.
Ziese, M.; Schneider, U.; Meyer-Christoffer, A. et al. The GPCC Drought Index – A New, Combined and
Gridded Global Drought Index. Earth System Science Data 2014, 6 (2), 285–295. https://​essd​
.copernicus​.org/​articles/​6/​285/​2014/​.
ANNEX 1. RESULTS FROM THE WMO MEMBERS SURVEY ON EXTREME
EVENTS

The former WMO Commission for Climatology Task Team on the Definition of Extreme Weather
and Climate Events (TT-DEWCE) disseminated a survey to WMO Members, requesting
information on the definitions and criteria of extreme weather and climate events that are used
operationally in their National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). The survey
mainly focused on four types of high-impact extreme events, namely heatwave, cold wave,
extreme precipitation and drought. A total of 53 Members responded to the survey. There was
very good geographical representation, sampling the major climate zones, including Members
with tropical wet and dry climates, arid and semi-arid climates, continental climates and
subarctic climates. The number of Members responding to the survey, based on membership
of the Regional Associations (RAs), are: 11 from RA I (Africa), 9 from RA II (Asia), 5 from RA III
(South America), 5 from RA IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean), 5 from RA V
(South-West Pacific) and 18 from RA VI (Europe).

Among the 53 Members that responded, 7 of them had no criteria to define any of the extreme
events. Some Members only had official definitions for a subset of the events. The figure
summarizes the number of Members with and without definitions for each extreme event.

45
40
35
30
25 Members without
definitions
20
Members with
15
definitions
10
5
0
Heat wave Cold wave Extreme Drought
rainfall

Figure. Number of Members responding to the WMO Members survey on extreme events
that have definitions for four types of extreme events

For heatwave and cold wave events, almost all Members having tropical climates responded that
they have no definition or criteria for those events, presumably owing to the low seasonal and
interannual variability in temperatures in such climates, as well as the limited impacts from those
events which do occur. Members located in the higher latitudes or in the Middle East generally
have the following criteria for heatwaves: the temperature exceeds a certain threshold (based
on absolute value or percentiles) and persists longer than a certain number of consecutive days.
Conversely, for cold wave events, the criteria are that the temperature drops to or is less than
a certain threshold and persists longer than a certain number of consecutive days. Roughly
65% of the responding Members have criteria for heatwaves, and around 50% have criteria
for cold waves. Around 60% of Members that responded as having criteria for heatwaves use
 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FROM THE WMO MEMBERS SURVEY ON EXTREME EVENTS 15

absolute values for the threshold and around 30% use percentile-based thresholds. Around 60%
of Members having criteria for cold wave events use an absolute value for the threshold while
around 25% use a percentile-based threshold.

For drought, around 80% of responding Members indicated that they have criteria and indices
for drought. Among those Members that have indices for drought, the majority (around 70%)
follow the drought index recommended by WMO: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).
Several Members reported using various indices or combinations besides the SPI, such as the
Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Palmer Drought Severity
Index (PDSI) and expert assessments; some also reported using hydrological criteria for drought.

For extreme precipitation, around 60% of responding Members indicated that they have criteria
and indices for extreme precipitation. Around 70% of those use criteria with an absolute value
threshold within a given time interval (hourly, 3 hours, 6 hours or daily). The other criterion
commonly used, by roughly 30% of Members, is a percentile-based threshold, for instance the
95th or the 99th percentile. A small number of Members (around 10%) use the return period
criterion or base their criteria on other aspects of rainfall distribution for each station.

More details on the types of extreme weather and climate indices used by Members are
summarized in the table below.

Table. Summary of the results of the WMO Members survey on extreme events

Event Heatwave Cold wave Extreme Drought

precipitation
Number of Members with definitions 34 27 32 42
Absolute value threshold 20 16 23 1
Percentile-based threshold 11 7 9 10
Excess Heat Index (EHI) 5
Heat–health index 3
Temperature drop 4
Return period/distribution-based 3
criteria
SPI 29
SPEI 5
PDSI 3
Water balance and agriculture related 18

Note: Some Members use multiple indicators for a given extreme event type such that the total number of metrics used
exceeds the number of respondents for some categories.
The survey asked whether NMHSs require or would benefit from any additional support
from WMO on extreme weather and climate events. Members’ responses can generally be
categorized into two requirements: (1) the need for guidelines for defining extreme events;
and (2) the need for capacity building to improve climate monitoring and predictions on
extreme events.
ANNEX 2. EXAMPLE REPORTS ON EXTREME EVENTS

A. Example of reporting a heatwave event at the regional scale

Summary: A heatwave occurred in June 2017 in western Europe, making this month about
3 °C warmer than the 1981–2010 long-term average. Due to the heatwave, national heat–health
plans across the region were set in motion. During the heatwave, night-time temperatures in
France reached an all-time record high on 21 June, with the average reaching 26.4 °C. In Paris,
the high temperatures triggered a level three response in France’s four-level heatwave plan, as
temperatures in the French capital peaked at 37 °C during the week of 19 June. The average
monthly June temperature in France was the second warmest on record (after June 2003).
In the Netherlands, June 2017 was equal with 1976 as the hottest months of June on record;
in Switzerland, June 2017 was the second warmest since 1864, when observations began. In
northern areas, the minimum night-time temperatures reached record highs of 24 °C–25 °C.
In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the UK Met Office reported that
21 June was the hottest June day in more than 40 years, when temperatures reached 34.5 °C
at Heathrow airport. In Spain and Portugal, wildfires forced evacuations, displacing over
1 500 people in Spain and more than 500 people in Portugal, where a forest fire killed at least
64 people and injured 204.
Type of event: Heatwave
Data used: Gridded daily maximum temperature data set
Source of data: In situ observations
Methodology for characterization of the event: Not provided
Description:

Quantitative description
Thermal index Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI)
Threshold Relative value thresholds in the WSDI are used. The WSDI is defined as the annual
or seasonal count of days in a span of 6 consecutive days or longer where the daily
maximum temperature exceeds the calendar day 90th percentile of daily maximum
temperature, calculated for a 5-day window centred on each calendar day in the
1961–1990 period. This follows the definition in the Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes
in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation (WMO/TD-
No. 1500).
Temporal The heatwave event occurred in June 2017 and lasted 6 days or more in the
information southern UK, the Netherlands and Belgium, increasing in duration to over 20 days
in parts of the Iberian Peninsula.

Event characterization
Magnitude The magnitude of the event is illustrated in Figure 1, where the area-averaged daily
maximum temperature for the affected area (shown in Figure 2) is calculated and
compared against climatological values (based on the 1981–2010 period). Figure 1
shows the heatwave in June, when the area-averaged temperature exceeded
31 °C and was over 6 °C warmer than climatological values. Note: the June 2017
heatwave was preceded by a warm period starting at the end of May.
Duration The duration of a heatwave is the number of days where temperature values
exceed the WSDI threshold. The duration must, according to the WSDI definition,
be at least 6 days. The duration of the June 2017 heatwave is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 3 shows that the June 2017 heatwave for the area has been the most severe
on record, passing the previous record value in June 2003.
Extent The area impacted by the June 2017 heatwave event is indicated in Figure 2
and relates to the area where the WSDI temperature threshold was exceeded
for 6 consecutive days. It includes nearly all of Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium
and Switzerland, and parts of many other countries reaching to the Black Sea.
 ANNEX 2. EXAMPLE REPORTS ON EXTREME EVENTS 17

Data requirements
Data used E-OBS gridded data set is used (Haylock et al., 2008) based on validated data
supplied by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in
Europe to the Climate Data node of the WMO Regional Climate Centre (RCC) for
Regional Association (RA) VI. The spatial and temporal resolution of this data set
are, respectively, 0.25° and daily. Data are available from 1950 and are updated
monthly.

Figure 1. Daily maximum temperature (in degrees Celsius), averaged over the area affected
by the heatwave of June 2017 in Europe, characterized as either warmer or colder than
average compared to 1981–2010 climatological values. The heatwave in June, with area-
averaged temperature exceeding 31 °C (> 6 °C warmer than climatological values from the
reference period), stretched from southern Spain to southern UK and the Netherlands, and
eastward to the Black Sea.
18 GUIDELINES ON THE DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE
EVENTS

Figure 2. Duration of the June 2017 heatwave event in days, as calculated

according to the WSDI
 ANNEX 2. EXAMPLE REPORTS ON EXTREME EVENTS 19

Figure 3. June WSDI values averaged over the countries Portugal, Spain, France, Switzerland
and Belgium for 1950 through 2017

Bibliography:

Haylock, M. R.; Hofstra, N.; Klein Tank, A. M. G. et al. A European Daily High-resolution Gridded Data
Set of Surface Temperature and Precipitation for 1950–2006. Journal of Geophysical Research:
Atmospheres 2008, 113 (D20). https://​doi​.org/​10​.1029/​2008JD010201.
Otto, F.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Vautard, R. et al. Record June Temperatures in Western Europe; World
Weather Attribution, 29 June 2017. https://​www​.worldweatherattribution​.org/​european​-heat​
-june​-2017/​.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in
Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation (WMO/TD-No. 1500). Climate Data and Monitoring
WCDMP-No. 72. Geneva, 2009.
20 GUIDELINES ON THE DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE
EVENTS

B. Example of reporting a cold wave event at the national scale

Summary: A cold wave event occurred from the middle of December 2005 to the beginning of
January 2006 over eastern and western Japan. During that period, there was a cold air invasion
from the north-west over Japan on several occasions. This was a result of the strong pressure
gradient between the Siberian High and Aleutian Lows. This pattern is typically seen in East Asia
during the northern hemisphere winter, and once the gradient becomes strong, it causes cold
waves in and around Japan. In addition to the low temperatures, the cold wave events brought
heavy snowfall on the Sea of Japan side of the islands.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is routinely monitoring extreme events around the
world, including in Japan. Extremely cold events are also monitored with temperature anomaly
(TA), based on SYNOP/CLIMAT reports. The monitoring results are reported weekly, monthly,
seasonally and annually through the Tokyo Climate Center web page (http://​ds​.data​.jma​.go​.jp/​
tcc/​tcc/​products/​climate/​index​.html). In the case of winter 2005/2006, three consecutive weeks
in December and one week in January were identified as a cold wave event in weekly monitoring.

Besides monitoring reports, JMA issues warning information on extremely cold temperatures
brought about by cold wave events. Forecasts and expected socioeconomic impacts associated
with the cold wave are taken into account when making decisions about issuance of warning
information. Early warning information on cold conditions is also issued in advance when cold
wave events are predicted with medium-range numerical model forecasts.
Type of event: Cold wave
Data used: Conventional surface observation data
Source of data: Surface observation data obtained at SYNOP/CLIMAT stations over Japan
Methodology for characterization of the event: TA is used for monitoring cold wave events
based on SYNOP reports. Cold wave events are identified when the criteria are satisfied at
observation stations across a wide range of the country, in terms of weekly- to seasonal-average
temperature anomalies. The duration of cold events is evaluated as the number of consecutive
weeks or months with cold event conditions. The severity is measured simply depending on
whether criteria for cold wave events are met or not.
Description:

Quantitative description
Cold wave index Temperature anomaly (TA)
A cold wave is defined generally in the JMA glossary as a temperature
decrease to some extent for a period longer than a few days, due to a cold
air invasion. In the monitoring process, averaged TA for each week, month
and season is evaluated in terms of statistically derived criteria based on
monthly average.
Threshold For a week: Absolute TA > 3 times the 30-day standard deviation
For a month and season: Absolute TA > 1.83 times the monthly standard
deviation
The 30-day standard deviation is calculated by interpolating the
climatological monthly standard deviation. Thresholds that would pick up
rare events (defined as once per 30 years) are calculated and adopted.
Temporal information The cold wave event continued for a total of five weeks, from the middle of
December 2005 to the beginning of January 2006, as show in Figure 1.

Event characterization
Magnitude The measure of magnitude is related to whether temperature anomalies
exceed the threshold or not. The TA value is provided as supplemental
information about the magnitude of the event.
Duration Duration of cold wave events is expressed as the number of consecutive
weeks or months that cold wave event conditions persist. The duration of
this cold wave is shown in Figure 1.
 ANNEX 2. EXAMPLE REPORTS ON EXTREME EVENTS 21

Extent The total extent is assessed as the continuous geographical regions where
observation data collected at stations meet the criteria for a cold wave event
for the duration of the event.
Figure 2 illustrates the TA distribution on a map for the duration of the cold
wave event. The total extent is estimated at approximately 279 000 km2 for
this event.

Data requirements
Data used Surface observation data obtained at SYNOP stations over Japan

°C °C
(a) +3 +3 (b)
+2 +2
+1 +1
Northern Japan 0 0
–1 –1
–2 –2
–1 –1

+3 +3
+2 +2
+1 +1
Eastern Japan 0 0
–1 –1
–2 –2
–1 –1

+3 +3
+2 +2
+1 +1
Western Japan 0 0
–1 –1
–2 –2
–1 –1

+3 +3
+2 +2
+1 +1
Okinawa/Amami 0 0
Western Japan –1 –1
–2 –2
–1 –1

Figure 1. (a) Progression of the cold wave event in the 2005/2006 winter, showing time series
of area-averaged TA for each of Japan’s four districts (pictured in (b))
22 GUIDELINES ON THE DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE
EVENTS

Figure 2. Distributions of TA in two selected periods during the cold wave event, that is,
(a) 07–27 December 2005 and (b) 04–10 January 2006

Bibliography:

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Climate Change Monitoring Report 2006; JMA: Tokyo, 2007. https://​
www​.jma​.go​.jp/​jma/​en/​NMHS/​ccmr/​CCMR2006​.pdf.
 ANNEX 2. EXAMPLE REPORTS ON EXTREME EVENTS 23

C. Example of reporting an extreme precipitation event at the national scale

Summary: A persistent extreme precipitation event occurred from 1 to 11 July 1991 in central-
eastern China. This extreme precipitation event caused damage to an area of 112 600 km2,
with a death toll of 1 800. Approximately 3 million houses were damaged or destroyed, and the
economic losses totalled 70 billion Yuan Renminbi (11 billion US dollars).
Type of event: Extreme precipitation
Data used: Station precipitation data set
Source of data: In situ observations
Methodology for characterization of the event: Daily precipitation equal to or greater
than 50 mm: (i) is observed by at least three neighbouring stations; and (ii) persists for at least
three days at each of those stations. There is at least one overlapping day between neighbouring
stations in the duration of the event. The event comes to an end when the above conditions are
not satisfied for two consecutive days.
Description:

Quantitative description
Precipitation index PI: total precipitation measured for 24 h
Threshold More than three consecutive days, with daily amount ≥ 50 mm
Temporal information This extreme precipitation event lasted 11 days, from 1 to 11 July 1991

Event characterization
Magnitude PI: Maximum amount of 24 h total precipitation over 50 mm
Duration Duration (D) of extreme precipitation is the number of consecutive days
when daily precipitation exceeds 50 mm in at least three neighbouring
stations for a minimum of three consecutive days. The extreme precipitation
is allowed to break for at most one day before continuing.
Extent The area impacted by this persistent extreme precipitation event is
112 600 km2, as shown in the figure below.

Data requirements
Data used Daily precipitation amounts at 756 stations, with detailed metadata provided
by the Climate Data Center (CDC) of the National Meteorological Information
Center, China Meteorological Administration. The data set provides
geographical coverage of China during the period 1951−2010.
24 GUIDELINES ON THE DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE
EVENTS

Figure. Persistent precipitation extremes, which occurred from 1 to 11 July 1991. Shadings
indicate accumulated precipitation (mm), and red triangles label the stations which
experienced at least three consecutive days with extreme precipitation of at least
50 mm per day.

Bibliography:

Chen, Y.; Zhai, P. M. Persistent Extreme Precipitation Events in China During 1951–2010. Climate Research
2013, 57 (2), 143–155. https://​doi​.org/​10​.3354/​cr01171.
Ren, F.; Cui, D.; Gong, Z. et al. An Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events. Journal of
Climate 2012, 25 (2), 7015–7027. https://​www​.jstor​.org/​stable/​26191652.
 ANNEX 2. EXAMPLE REPORTS ON EXTREME EVENTS 25

D. Example of reporting a drought event at the national scale

Summary: A drought event occurred early in 2014 along the eastern coast of Sumatra,
Indonesia, which was initiated by a cold surge episode bringing a cold and dry airmass from
Siberia. The drought lasted three months, causing problems in the agricultural sector and
initiating forest fires.
Type of event: Drought
Data used: Gridded precipitation data set
Source of data: Satellite and in situ observations
Methodology for characterization of the event: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
values were calculated based on monthly precipitation data. (The SPI value is the difference
between the normalized precipitation value and its median value.) The drought condition was
based on an absolute value threshold, and the duration was simply calculated as the number of
months with SPI values less than the threshold. The severity was defined as the average of the SPI
values over the duration period.
Description:

Quantitative description
Drought index Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Threshold Absolute value threshold, SPI < −1, as defined by McKee et al. (1993)
Temporal information The drought event lasted three months, from January 2014 through
March 2014.

Event characterization
Magnitude The categorization of SPI values is based on the definition given by McKee
et al. (1993), as follows:
2.00 ≤ SPI: extremely wet
1.5 < SPI < 2: severely wet
1 < SPI < 1.5: moderately wet
−1 < SPI < 1: near normal
−1.5 < SPI < −1: moderately dry
−2 < SPI < −1.5: severely dry
SPI ≤ −2: extremely dry
The progression of the drought event is shown in Figure 1 from December
2013 (before the onset) until April 2014 (after cessation), and the colour
scheme follows the SPI categorization.
Duration The duration (D) of a drought in a location is the number of consecutive
months with SPI values less than −1.
The duration of the drought event is shown in Figure 2.
Extent The area impacted by the drought event is 291 000 km2, as shown in
Figure 3.

Data requirements
Data used Operational gridded precipitation data set, obtained by merging in situ
and satellite observation data. Temporal resolution in 10-day and monthly
timescales, and 0.25° spatial resolution. Data is available for 1998 to the
present.
26 GUIDELINES ON THE DEFINITION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE
EVENTS

Figure 1. Progression of the drought event from January 2014 through March 2014 on
Sumatra Island, Indonesia. The month before the drought (December 2013) and after (April
2014) are also shown. The colour shading represents the SPI categorization according to
McKee et al. (1993).

Figure 2. Duration of the event (in months)

Figure 3. Extent of the event (the impacted area)

Bibliography:

McKee, T. B.; Doeskin, N. J.; Kleist, J. The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales.
In Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California, 17–22 January
1993. https://​www​.droughtmanagement​.info/​literature/​AMS​_ Relationship​_ Drought​
_Frequency​_ Duration​_Time​_ Scales ​_1993​.pdf.
Mirabbasi, R.; Fakheri-Fard, A.; Dinpashoh, Y. Bivariate Drought Frequency Analysis Using the Copula
Method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2012, 108, 191–206. https://​link​.springer​.com/​
article/​10​.1007/​s00704​- 011​- 0524​-7.
 ANNEX 2. EXAMPLE REPORTS ON EXTREME EVENTS 27

Shiau, J. T.; Modarres, R. Copula-based Drought Severity Duration Frequency Analysis in Iran.
Meteorological Applications 2009, 16 (4), 481–489. https://​doi​.org/​10​.1002/​met​.145.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide (WMO-No. 1090).
Geneva, 2012.
 For more information, please contact:

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