Chapter 3

PERT AND CPM

SECTION 5
PERT AND CPM
• PERT/CPM is used to plan the scheduling and optimal staffing of
individual activities that make up a project.
• Projects may have as many as several thousand activities and may
have to be broken up into simpler sub-projects.
• Usually some activities depend on the completion of other activities
before they can be started.
PERT AND CPM
• PERT/CPM Project managers rely on PERT/CPM to help them answer
questions such as: –
• What is the total time to complete the project? –
• What are the scheduled start and finish dates for each specific activity?
• Which activities are critical and must be completed exactly as scheduled to
keep the project on schedule?
• How long can noncritical activities be delayed before they cause an
increase in the project completion time?
• If activity times are uncertain (i.e., they are random variables), what is the
probability that the project will be finished in any given time-frame?
PERT AND CPM
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
• PERT is a probabilistic project management tool used to analyze the time
required to complete each task and the entire project.
• It is useful for projects with uncertain activity durations
• Based on three time estimates for each activity:
o Optimistic time (O): The minimum possible time for an activity.
o Most likely time (M): The best estimate of time required under normal conditions.
o Pessimistic time (P): The maximum possible time under worst-case conditions.
o Expected time (TE) is calculated using the formula: TE= (O+4M+P)/6
CPM (Critical Path Method)
CPM is a deterministic technique used for scheduling project activities with
known fixed durations.
PERT AND CPM

Arcs indicate project activities

A D
1 3 4

B C

Nodes correspond to the beginning

and ending of activities
PERT AND CPM
• Dummy activities is used to identify precedence relationships
correctly and to eliminate possible confusion of two or more
activities having the same starting and ending nodes
A D
Activity Immediate 1 3 4
predecessors
A -
E
B - B
C B
C 5
D A, C
2
We need to introduce
E C a dummy activity
PERT AND CPM
Network concurrent activities
a a
2

1 2 1 Dummy

b 3
b
WRONG!!! RIGHT 

Activity c not WRONG !

required for e
a
a e
d
1
b 1 b
e
d
c
2
c
WRONG
RIGHT
!!!

RIGHT 
 PERT AND CPM
• We are interested in the longest path through the network, i.e., the critical path.

forward pass calculation

• Earliest start time rule: The earliest start time for an activity leaving a particular node is equal to the
largest of the earliest finish times for all activities entering the node.

• Earliest finish (EF) => EF = ES + t

To find the critical path we need a backward pass calculation.

• Latest finish time (LF)

• latest start (LS) = LF – t

Calc Slack Time (Float):Slack defines how long non-critical activities can be delayed without delaying the
project
• Slack = LS−ES or LF−EF.
• If slack = 0, the activity is critical.
PERT AND CPM
EF = earliest finish time

ES = earliest start time

Activity

2
LF = latest finish time
LS = latest start time
PERT AND CPM
Q 1:
Construction Project
A construction project has the following activities and dependencies
Activity Immediate Predecessors Completion Time (weeks)
A - 5
B - 6
C A 4
D A 3
E A 1
F E 4
G D, F 14
H B, C 12
I G, H 2

Tasks:
 Construct the network diagram.
 Perform Forward and Backward Pass to determine the Early Start (ES), Early Finish (EF), Late Start (LS), and
Late Finish (LF).
 Identify the Critical Path and Project Completion Time.
 Determine the Slack Time for each activity
PERT AND CPM
• Network with ES & EF time

D[5,8] 5
2 3

7
4
Activity Immediate Completion
1 6 Predecessors Time (weeks)
A - 5
B - 6
C A 4
D A 3
E A 1
3 F E 4
G D, F 14
H B, C 12
I G, H 2
PERT AND CPM
• Network with LS & LF time

D[5,8] 5
2 3[7,10]

7
4

1 6

3
PERT AND CPM
• Slack
2

D[5,8] 5
2 3[7,10]
0 0
0
0 7
4

1 6
3 0

6 3 3
 PERT AND CPM
• The critical path is one with Slack=0
2

D[5,8] 5
2 3[7,10]
0 0
0
0 7
4

1 6
3 0

6 3 3

• The critical path is AEFGI

• The duration time =26
PERT AND CPM
Activity schedule for our example
Activity Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Slack Critical
start (ES) start (LS) finish (EF) finish (LF) (LS-ES) path

A 0 0 5 5 0 Yes
B 0 6 6 12 6
C 5 8 9 12 3
D 5 7 8 10 2
E 5 5 6 6 0 Yes
F 6 6 10 10 0 Yes
G 10 10 24 24 0 Yes
H 9 12 21 24 3
I 24 24 26 26 0 Yes
PERT AND CPM
Q 2:
A software company is working on a new application. The project consists of the following activities
Activity Immediate Predecessor Optimistic Time Most Likely Time Pessimistic Time

a - 10 22 22
b - 20 20 20
c - 4 10 16
d a 2 14 32
e b, c 8 8 20
f b, c 8 14 20
g b, c 4 4 4
h c 2 12 16
i g, h 6 16 38
j d, e 2 8 14

Tasks
 Construct a network diagram and determine the dependencies.
 Compute the Expected Time (TE) for each activity using the PERT formula.
 Identify the Critical Path and the expected project duration.
 Assess the probability of completing the project within 50 days.
 PERT AND CPM
Activity Immediate Optimistic Time Most Likely Time Pessimistic Time Expected Value Variance
Predecessor

a - 10 22 22 (10+(4*22)+22)/6 ((22-10)/6)^2
m= most likely time estimate, mode.
=20 =4
o = optimistic time estimate,
b - 20 20 20 20 0
b = pessimistic time estimate, and
c - 4 10 16 10 4
Expected Value (TE) = (o + 4m + b) /6
Variance (V) = ( ( b –o) / 6 ) 2
d a 2 14 32 15 25
Std Deviation (δ) = SQRT (V)
e b, c 8 8 20 10 4

f b, c 8 14 20 14 4

g b, c 4 4 4 4 0

h c 2 12 16 11 5.4

i g, h 6 16 38 18 28.4

j d, e 2 8 14 8 4
PERT AND CPM
• Network with ES & EF time Activity Immediate Expected Value
Predecessor
a - 20
d[20,35] b - 20
2 6
15 c - 10
d a 15
e b, c 10
f b, c 14
g b, c 4
b[0,20] f[20,34] h c 11
1 3 7
20 14 i g, h 18
j d, e 8

4 h[10,21] 5
11
PERT AND CPM
• Network with LS & LF time Activity Immediate Expected Value
Predecessor
a - 20
d [20,35] b - 20
2 6
15[20,35] c - 10
d a 15
e b, c 10
f b, c 14
g b, c 4
B [0,20] F [20,34] h c 11
1 3 7
20[1,21] 14[29,43] i g, h 18
j d, e 8

4 H [10,21] 5
11[14,25]
PERT AND CPM
• Slack Activity Immediate Expected Value
Predecessor
0 a - 20
d [20,35] b - 20
2 6
15[20,35] c - 10
0
d a 15
e b, c 10
f b, c 14
1 9 g b, c 4
B [0,20] F [20,34] h c 11
1 3 7
20[1,21] 14[29,43] i g, h 18
j d, e 8

4
4 H [10,21] 5
11[14,25]
PERT AND CPM
• Slack
0
d [20,35] The critical path is one with Slack=0
2 6
15[20,35] The critical path is a,d,j
0
The duration time =43

1 9
B [0,20] F [20,34]
1 3 7
20[1,21] 14[29,43]

4
4 H [10,21] 5
11[14,25]
PERT AND CPM
PM promised to complete the project in the fifty days.
Calculate Z, where

Z= (T−TE) / σ
Example,
T = 50; TE =43; Var = (4+25+4) =33
Z = (50 – 43) / 5.745 = 1.22

The probability value of Z = 1.22, is 0.888

1.22