BITS-PILANI, HYDERABAD CAMPUS

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS (MATH F113)

Confidence Interval:
1. The article “Distributions of Compressive Strength Obtained from Various Diameter
Cores” (ACI Materials J., 2012: 597–606) described a study in which compressive
strengths were determined for concrete specimens of various types, core diameters,
and length-to-diameter ratios. For one particular type, diameter, and l/d ratio,
the 18 tested specimens resulted in a sample mean compressive strength of 64.41
MPa and a sample standard deviation of 10.32 MPa. Normality of the compressive
strength distribution was judged to be quite plausible.
Calculate a confidence interval with confidence level 98 % for the true average com-
pressive strength under these circumstances.
2. A journal article reports that a sample of size 5 was used as a basis for calculating a
95% CI for the true average natural frequency (Hz) of delaminated beams of a certain
type. The resulting interval was (229.764, 233.504). You decide that a confidence
level of 99% is more appropriate than the 99% level used. What are the limits of
the 99% interval? [Hint: Use the center of the interval and its width to determine x
and s.]
3. Unexplained respiratory symptoms reported by athletes are often incorrectly con-
sidered secondary to exercise-induced asthma. The article “High Prevalence of
Exercise-Induced Laryngeal Obstruction in Athletes” (Medicine and Science in Sports
and Exercise, 2013: 2030–2035) suggested that many such cases could instead be
explained by obstruction of the larynx. In a sample of 88 athletes referred for an
asthma workup, 31 were found to have the EILO condition.
(a) Calculate and interpret a confidence interval using a 95% confidence level for
the true proportion of all athletes found to have the EILO condition under
these circumstances.
(b) What sample size is required if the desired width of the 95% CI is to be at most
.04, irrespective of the sample results?
(c) Does the upper limit of the interval in (a) specify a 95% upper confidence bound
for the proportion being estimated? Explain.
4. It is important that face masks used by firefighters be able to withstand high tem-
peratures because firefighters commonly work in temperatures of 200–500°F. In a
test of one type of mask, 11 of 55 masks had lenses pop out at 250°. Construct a
90% upper confidence bound for the true proportion of masks of this type whose
lenses would pop out at 250°.
5. A manufacturer of college textbooks is interested in estimating the strength of the
bindings produced by a particular binding machine. Strength can be measured by
recording the force required to pull the pages from the binding. If this force is
measured in pounds, how many books should be tested to estimate the average
force required to break the binding to within .1 lb with 95% confidence? Assume
that s is known to be 0.8.
Testing of Hypothesis
1. A sample of 50 lenses used in eyeglasses yields a sample mean thickness of 3.05 mm
and a sample standard deviation of .34 mm. The desired true average thickness
of such lenses is 3.20 mm. Does the data strongly suggest that the true average
thickness of such lenses is something other than what is desired? Test using α = .05.

2. Two different companies have applied to provide cable television service in a certain
region. Let p denote the proportion of all potential subscribers who favor the first
company over the second. Consider testing H0 : p = .5 versus Ha : p ̸= 0.5 based
on a random sample of 25 individuals. Let X denote the number in the sample who
favor the first company and x represent the observed value of X.
(a) Which of the following rejection regions is most appropriate?
R1 = {x : x ≤ 7 or x ≥ 18}, R2 {x : x ≤ 8}, R3 = {x : x ≥ 17}
(b) In the context of this problem situation, describe what the type I and type II
errors are.
(c) What is the probability distribution of the test statistic X when H0 is true?
Use it to compute the probability of a type I error.
(d) Compute the probability of a type II error for the selected region when p = 0.3.
(e) Using the selected region, what would you conclude if 6 of the 25 queried favored
company 1?

3. One method for straightening wire before coiling it to make a spring is called “roller
straightening.” The article “The Effect of Roller and Spinner Wire Straightening
on Coiling Performance and Wire Properties” (Springs, 1987: 27–28) reports on the
tensile properties of wire. Suppose a sample of 16 wires is selected and each is tested
to determine tensile strength (N/mm2 ). The resulting sample mean and standard
deviation are 2160 and 30, respectively.
(a) The mean tensile strength for springs made using spinner straightening is 2150
N/mm2 . What hypotheses should be tested to determine whether the mean
tensile strength for the roller method exceeds 2150?
(b) Assuming that the tensile strength distribution is approximately normal, what
test statistic would you use to test the hypotheses in part (a)?
(c) What is the value of the test statistic for this data?
(d) For a level .05 test, find the critical region and derive a conclusion based on the
value of the statistic?
(e) What is the P-value for the value of the test statistic computed?

4. The article “Orchard Floor Management Utilizing Soil-Applied Coal Dust for Frost
Protection” (Agri. and Forest Meteorology, 1988: 71–82) reports the following values
for soil heat flux of eight plots covered with coal dust.
34.7 35.4 34.7 37.7 32.5 28.0 18.4 24.9
The mean soil heat flux for plots covered only with grass is 29.0. Assuming that
the heat-flux distribution is approximately normal, does the data suggest that the
coal dust is effective in increasing the mean heat flux over that for grass? Test the
appropriate hypotheses using a α = 0.05.

5. The true average breaking strength of ceramic insulators of a certain type is supposed
to be at least 10 psi. They will be used for a particular application unless sample data

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 indicates conclusively that this specification has not been met. A test of hypotheses
using a α = 0.01 is to be based on a random sample of ten insulators. Assume that
the breaking-strength distribution is normal with unknown standard deviation.
If the true standard deviation is .80, how likely is it that insulators will be judged
satisfactory when true average breaking strength is actually only 9.5? Only 9.0?

6. The incidence of a certain type of chromosome defect in the U.S. adult male popu-
lation is believed to be 1 in 75. A random sample of 800 individuals in U.S. penal
institutions reveals 16 who have such defects. Can it be concluded that the incidence
rate of this defect among prisoners differs from the presumed rate for the entire adult
male population?
(a) State and test the relevant hypotheses using α = .05. What type of error might
you have made in reaching a conclusion?
(b) Could H0 be rejected at significance level .20?

7. The article “Heavy Drinking and Polydrug Use Among College Students” (J. of
Drug Issues, 2008: 445–466) stated that 51 of the 462 college students in a sample
had a lifetime abstinence from alcohol. Does this provide strong evidence for con-
cluding that more than 10% of the population sampled had completely abstained
from alcohol use? Test the appropriate hypotheses.

Linear Regression
1. The article “Characterization of Highway Runoff in Austin, Texas, Area” (J. of
Envir. Engr., 1998: 131 − 137) gave a scatterplot, along with the least squares line,
of x = rainfull volume (m3 ) and y = runoff volume (m3 ) for a particular location.
The accompanying values were read from the plot.

x 5 12 14 17 23 30 40 47 55 67 72 81 96 112 127
y 4 10 13 15 15 25 27 46 38 46 53 70 82 99 100

(a) Calculate point estimates of the slope and intercept of the population regression
line.
(b) Calculate a point estimate of the true average runoff volume when rainfall
volume is 50.

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