Time Variability 2024
Time Variability 2024
ABSTRACT
Travel Time estimation is largely caused by the stochastic process of arrivals and
departures of vehicles and its reliability measurements considering important issues for
improving operational efficiency and safety for traffic road networks. The exploration of
travel time variability and spatio-temporal analysis of urban streets using the Global
Positioning System (GPS) concluded that the mixed land uses and travel congestions caused
higher travel times and delays. The accessibility indices were increased by increasing access
points and decreasing traffic volumes. The Geographic Information System (GIS) networks
can produce a model that overcomes some restrictions of accessibility indices. Different
prediction models were developed to capture the main parameters related to travel time. It
concluded that delay at signalized intersections in terms of stopping delay was the major
parameter affecting the total travel time and total delay time of major urban streets. Travel
time estimation algorithms based on speed data loop detectors induced insignificant
differences when the study route was a relatively short and slow transition from free state
to congestion state. Travel time results are affected by the location of sensors and their
sparseness, hence estimation errors increase as detector spacing increases.
1. INTRODUCTION
The performance of urban streets and their level of service are affected by the variability of
travel time due to recurrent and noncurrent daily congestions that induce various travel
patterns; and changes in traffic volumes and traffic compositions. The main objective of the
transportation system is to move people and goods in the least possible travel time and
minimum cost, so thinking about travel time rather than traffic volume is more meaningful
to all users to evaluate the efficiency of urban networks and transportation systems. Based
on the above, travel time estimates and develops models for its variability and the prediction
*Corresponding author
Peer review under the responsibility of University of Baghdad.
https://doi.org/10.31026/j.eng.2025.01.10
This is an open access article under the CC BY 4 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Article received: 12/05/2024
Article revised: 05/08/2024
Article accepted: 11/08/2024
Article published: 01/01/2025
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of its reliability indices have been an important study topic since decades besides its benefits
to engage with Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS); Advanced Traveler Information
Systems (ATIS) and Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS).
Different techniques of estimation methods using sensors have been developed to collect
field traffic data of various parameters; travel time; traffic speed; traffic volume; occupancy;
traffic density; headway time and vehicle trajectory collected from vehicle equipment with
Global Positioning System (GPS) device. To describe the state of traffic conditions in urban
streets, travel time is one of the most important measurements that can be used and
generally varied with space and time which results in the complexity of traffic flow
interaction and propagation. Therefore, travel time estimation is challenging because of the
high cost of equipment and sensors to collect accurate field data as well as the choice of
better decisions for the best model to describe the state conditions of traffic driver behavior.
Traffic data variability makes difficult in travel time conclusions. Analyses of the cost-benefit
have to take into consideration travel time variability (Fosgerau, 2016). The route travel
times can alter significantly because of the traffic congestion spread in urban streets and
environmental conditions disproportionately (Li and Gunopulos, 2017). In terms of
accessibility and mobility, traffic congestion is a significant factor relating to travel time
volume in urban streets (Yazici et al., 2017). Urban transportation is affected by traffic
congestions that are happened whenever the travel request overrides the capacity of the
road (Jiang et al., 2024). (Ayob and Alkaissi, 2021) concluded that the use of public
transportation, legal parking, and activities distribution across regions, all contribute to
minimizing traffic congestion. The three most essential factors employed in traffic
management are travel time, delay, and speed (Faghri and Hamad, 2002). Travel time data
are significant in transportation, planning, management, and private travel (Rahmani,
2015). (Li et al., 2024) mentioned that there is a need to take into account the variety of
vehicle categories in the determination of travel times. Most currently available prediction
models of travel times are intended for vehicles and failure use in truck data (Wang et al.,
2016). (Mahdi et al., 2023) proposed that route networks must be improved to achieve
better interconnection especially beyond city center areas because of the land use changes.
(Ali et al., 2023) stated that the roundabout improves traffic safety by reducing stop-and-
go movement, accidents, congestion, and delays.
GPS provides huge spatio-temporal data for traffic mobility (Li et al., 2015; Nguyen et al.,
2020). The essential exponent in a broad range of accessibility measurements is the travel
time (Liao et al., 2020). Latitudes, longitudes, dates, and times measured by GPS provide
vehicle information (travel times, speeds, and distances) between origin and destination
(Jiménez-Meza et al., 2013). GPS devices are used to restore travel times and delays at peak
hours that are then analyzed providing reliable measurements for origin-destination
optimal route selection (Mallem et al., 2009; Macababbad and Regidor, 2011). (Wu et
al., 2016) argued GPS mobile data gathering for travel surveying and stated their benefits
and drawbacks. There are many factors impacting travel times in urban areas. (Hadachi,
2013) condensed the geometry of the road network for correcting raw GPS data and map-
matching operations. Obstacles (buildings, tunnels, and dense trees) cause GPS signal losses,
so in these cases, manual data collection is necessary (Belliss, 2004; Faghri et al., 2015).
One of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) applications is the use of cellular
phones to determine the user position. In addition, GNSS has been efficiently applied in
transportation, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), mapping, and monitoring
(Alhamadani and Saeed, 2018).
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The study aims to investigate and describe all previous field tests and theoretical analyses
that capture the main parameters affecting travel time on urban streets. Different traffic
conditions are considered; reliability index of travel time, mixed land uses, and travel
behavior.
(Gallotti et al., 2015) presented a duration model that permits depicting travel time costs
using accessibility and budget between twenty-four cities in Italy assembled from vehicle
GPS data. (Chawuthai et al., 2022) predicted the vehicle travel times using GPS trucking
(every minute) on route segments in Thailand resulting in (12.15) minutes per (100)
kilometers mean absolute error. (Puangprakhon and Narupiti, 2017) collected data using
GPS vehicles in Bangkok and proposed a procedure for travel time allocation relating to
positions, times, and instant speeds.
The Bluetooth techniques are considered a promising technology for the direct
measurement of travel times. Several studies from homogenous traffic conditions utilized
these techniques. (Haghani et al., 2010) used the Bluetooth sensors as a new method and
effective for data collection of travel time for the freeway segment. The resulting data were
compared with floating car techniques and stated the average sampling rate of Bluetooth
sensors. They showed the suitability of new technology and promising methods for
measured travel time and usable for intelligent transportation system applications.
(Carrese et al., 2020) acquired urban traffic data by Bluetooth technology and inspected
various statistical models for best forecasting travel times. (Vo, 2011) deduced that
Bluetooth technology is capable of recording travel times as that obtained from GPS probes.
(Martchouk et al., 2011) observed travel time data from Bluetooth complementing with
microwave sensors. Also, statistics are employed to find the relation between travel times
and traffic factors indicating the possibility of agreeable prediction accuracy for travel time
averaging and variability. (Jedwanna and Boonsiripant, 2022) mentioned the influences
of Bluetooth penetration rates on travel time prediction on roads with tolls in Bangkok
(Thailand).
The estimation of travel time algorithms based on speed data loop detectors showed
insignificant differences when the travel route was relatively short and the transition from
free flow condition to congestion condition was slow hence the instantaneous measurement
of travel time could be adopted for its simplicity. On the other hand, the use of speed data
from different lanes caused significant differences in travel time results, so speed data from
the middle lane only were used during the free flow condition, and for recurrent congestion
periods, speed data were used for all lanes. The performance of travel time evaluation with
different spacing of detectors induced that, relative error increased as detector spacing
increased and the travel time results became more sensitive to finer resolution data, sparse
and locations of sensors (Xuegang et al., 2010). (Yildirimoglu and Geroliminis, 2013)
developed stochastic congestion maps for clustered data that combined the historical
analysis and real-time data (based on detector data) on freeways to predict travel times at
the starting time of a trip. The obtained results stated that the proposed method is suitable
for promising travel time predictions under different traffic conditions. Also, (Erkan and
Hastemoglu, 2016) stated that Bluetooth techniques were a cost-effective technology
promising for the estimation of travel time for heterogeneous traffic conditions. (Ding et al.,
2019) applied the Wi-Fi signal data to acquire traffic data information and the evaluation
confirmed the feasibility of applying Wi-Fi signal data to acquire traffic information and
could be used as a supplementary data source for monitoring real-time traffic states.
Focusing on the fusion of different data sources to achieve an accurate estimate of travel
time was done using a large data set and probe vehicle data to develop vehicle trajectories
(Bock et al., 2020; Genser et al., 2022) utilized different methods of data sources in Zurich,
Switzerland including thermal camera sensors; processed video data with automated license
plate recognition (ALPR) and Google Distance Matrix data from the particular area for travel
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time estimation. The obtained results of post-processed data sources were compared to the
empirical ground truth measurements and found the traffic measurement with thermal
camera and Google Distance Matrix API allowed the compilation of data set with true travel
time values and indicated a mean absolute percentage of error between 18% -58% and a
mean percentage of error for ALPR of 8%. The removable of outliers is difficult in cameras,
sensors, and Bluetooth scanners. Traffic videos allow more event images. GPS travel time
measurement and cumulative counts consistency seem more confident (Jie et al., 2011).
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(Alkaissi and Hussain, 2020) extended the study of (Alkaissi, 2017) research to analyze
the spatio-temporal travel time for Palestine arterial streets from Al-Mawal to Maysaloon
Square intersection in Baghdad city. Using the GPS for 60 test runs in the north and south
directions at peak period (12:00-3:00) p.m. The trajectories and travel time for the study
area are presented as figures (Alkaissi and Hussain, 2020) for both north and south
directions. The obtained results of travel time were 17.3 min. and 14.4 min. for the north and
south directions, respectively. (Alkaissi, 2022) developed a simulation traffic model to
predict the capacity of the urban street of heterogeneous traffic characteristics. A good
convergence with a maximum error of 8% and below 10% induced a successful traffic
simulation model utilizing VISSIM software. This technique helps reduce the team of
observers in the collection field data method. Also, it captures the travel time and speed of
the whole traffic journey.
Different predicted models developed by (Alkaissi, 2017; Alkaissi and Hussain, 2020) for
studying Palestine Urban Street have been made based on the obtained field data as shown
in Table 3 and Eq. (1) .
The control delay model at signalized intersections was represented by Eq. (1) with R2
equals to 0.909 (Alkaissi and Hussain, 2020).
It concluded that delay at signalized intersections in terms of stopping delay was the major
parameter affecting the total travel time and delay time of major urban streets.
(Zheng et al., 2017) developed the travel time distribution model for urban signalized
roads. The main factors were the effect on travel time distribution; arrival; departure; traffic
control schemes (cycle time, green split, and offsets), and variability of delay and running
time. The proposed model was dependent on GPS field data and was not significantly
different from field travel time distributions.
(Ahmed et al., 2021) estimated the arterial travel times comprising the speeds, stops, and
delays using Wenk GPS. The traffic data were collected for 45 days for private vehicles. Two
routes were selected in Baghdad city: the highway Route 1 (Bayaa intersection-Bab Al
Moatham intersection) and the downtown Route 2 (Bayaa intersection-Bab Al Moatham
intersection). Average travel times for these routes were observed at (a.m.) and (p.m.) peak
hours in January and February 2021. Route 1 had higher travel times and delays due to
mixed land uses and traffic congestion. The travel speeds for selected routes were below the
speed limit (70 kilometers per hour). From the data analysis, it was found that the maximum
travel times were (71 and 37 minutes) for Route 1 and Route 2, respectively. On the other
hand, the traffic congestion led to (45 and 20 minutes) delay times for Routes 1 and 2,
respectively.
Statistical measures can directly be used to estimate travel time variability. (Banik et al.,
2022) studied different statistical measurements and improved a capacity buffer index to
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assess the reliability of travel times gained from GPS probes and Wi-Fi. (Alattar et al., 2021)
employed Teltonika Wenk 122 GPS device to collect traffic data in three selected urban
streets in Baghdad city. The study used buffer and travel time indices for travel time
reliability assessment. (Singh et al., 2019) studied Wi-Fi detection traffic data and noted
that the index of buffer time shows travel time variations better than other reliability factors
like the indices of planning time and travel time in urban streets (Chennai).
(Osei et al., 2022) used multiple linear regressions to develop a model for predicting the
travel time of arterial urban streets. Data were collected by My Trucks GPS android
application mounted in the vehicle. The study found that traffic and access point density,
weekday trips, on street parking represent the main factors effectively increasing travel
times while multiple travel lanes decrease travel time. (Choi and Chung, 2002) introduced
the merged algorithm depending upon voting, regression, and Bayesian methods for travel
time prediction in congestion trajectories. The validation of this algorithm is made by GPS
and detector data in urban streets. (Bauer et al., 2019) described a model for errors in
estimating the full distribution of path travel times in a street network. Although model
errors of neighboring links are strongly correlated, the correlations dissolve with the
distance increasing. (Torrisi et al., 2017) analyzed various statistical measures like
standard deviation, congestion index, and variation coefficient force observing travel time
reliability in Catania, Italy urban area. The study found experimental relationships between
the variation coefficient and congestion index. (Carrion and Levinson, 2013) evaluated the
reliability of GPS travel times by integrating three measures (standard deviation, shortened
right range, and interquartile range) for model estimation. However, based on how the
reliability is defined, it is statistically considerable. (Kajalić et al., 2018) gathered travel
time data by GPS in urban streets and calculated root mean square error (RMSE) compared
with some models such as the Highway Capacity Manual, Akcelik, Singapore, and
Skabardonis Dowling models.
(Zhan et al., 2013) suggested a model that evaluated urban travel times in New York City
using taxi GPS information and recommended dividing the whole area into small parts such
as (1.5 × 1.5) kilometers to apply the proposed model. Trucks traveling long distances have
less credible travel times than trucks traveling short distances (Zhao and Li, 2022).
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results showed that the average accessibility indices were 0.67, 0.58, and 0.59 for routes 1,
2, and 3, respectively. The accessibility indices are increased by increasing the access points
and decreasing traffic volumes. The obtained model from GIS networks overcomes some
limitations of accessibility indices. The study produced a map of accessibility indices of
selected routes.
Route 1 Route 1
Average Travel Time at a.m. Average Travel Time at p.m.
Tuesday Tuesday
20%
24%
Wednesday
19% Wednesday
25%
Thursday Thursday
15%
22%
(a) Average Travel Time for Route 1 at a.m. (b) Average Travel Time for Route 1 at p.m.
Route 2 Route 2
Average Travel Time at a.m. Average Travel Time at p.m.
(c) Average Travel Time for Route 2 at a.m. (d) Average Travel Time for Route 2 at p.m.
Route 3 Route 3
Average Travel Time at a.m. Average Travel Time at p.m.
15% 19%
23% Sunday 22% Sunday
Monday Monday
18% Tuesday Tuesday
16%
Wednesday 24% Wednesday
24%
Thursday Thursday
20% 19%
(e) Average Travel Time for Route 3 at a.m. (f) Average Travel Time for Route 3 at p.m.
Figure 1. Percentage of Average Travel Time for Routes 1, 2, and 3.
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200
150
100
50
0
Route 1 Route 2 Route 3
Route
Figure 2. Average of Travel Times and Running Times for Selected Routes.
1
Average Accessibility Indices
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Route 1 Route 2 Route 3
Route
Travel Time estimation is largely caused by the stochastic process of arrivals and
departures of vehicles and its reliability measurements considering important issues for
improving operation efficiency and safety of traffic roads networks; the following
concluding remarks are given below:
1. Mixed land uses and travel congestions cause higher travel times and delays.
2. Travel times and running times can be used to evaluate accessibility indices using the
gravity model equation. The accessibility indices are increased by increasing access
points and decreasing traffic volumes. GIS networks can produce a model that
overcomes some restrictions of accessibility indices.
3. Different prediction models were developed to capture the main parameters related to
travel time. It concluded that delay at signalized intersections in terms of stopping delay
was the major parameter affecting the total travel time and delay time of major urban
streets.
4. Travel time estimation algorithms based on speed data loop detectors induce
insignificant differences when the study route is a relatively short and slow transition
from free state to congestion state.
5. Travel time results are affected by the location of sensors and their sparseness, hence
estimation errors increase as detector spacing increases.
6. The employment of legal parking, activity allocation, and public transportation, all
contribute to reducing traffic congestion.
To overcome the difficulties of travel time field estimation, traffic microsimulation
techniques are recommended to be used and expanded for prediction models of urban
streets by reducing estimation errors. Also, the determination of spatio–temporal
transitions would be more significant to simulate the traffic dynamics. GPS is considered an
efficient tool available for transportation applications, and provides real-time spatial and
temporal measurements. Future work may be important to conduct more analysis including
different types of GPS and their applications in traffic engineering.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Mustansiriyah University (www.uomustansiriyah.edu.iq) in
Baghdad, Iraq, for its support of this work.
Zainab Ahmed Alkaissi: developed the concept, aim, and idea of the research, contributed to
the final manuscript, and supervised the editing of the final manuscript. Ruba Yousif
Hussain: collected previous studies, interpreted results, and contributed to the editing of the
final manuscript.
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal
relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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تباين زمن الرحلة والتحليل المكاني الزمني للشوارع الحضرية بإستخدام نظام المواقع العالمي:
مراجعة
قسم هندسة الطرق والنقل ،كلية الهندسة ،الجامعة المستنصرية ،بغداد ،العراق
الخالصة
يرجع تقدير زمن الرحلة الى حد كبير الى العملية العشوائية لوصول ومغادرة المركبات وقياسات موثوقيتها مع االخذ باإلعتبار
قضايا مهمة لتحسين كفاءة التشغيل وسالمة شبكات الطرق المرورية وخلص إستكشاف تغاير زمن الرحلة والتحليل المكاني
الزمني للشوارع الحضرية بإستخدام نظام المواقع العالمي ( )GPSالى إن اإلستخدامات المختلفة لألراضي وزحام النقل يؤدي
الى زيادة زمن الرحلة والتأخير ،وإن مؤشرات إمكانية الوصول تزداد بزيادة نقاط الوصول وتقليل الحجم المروري ،ويمكن لشبكات
نظام المعلومات الجغرافي ( )GISانتاج نموذج يتغلب على بعض القيود المفروضة على مؤشرات إمكانية الوصول .تم تطوير
نماذج تنبؤ مختلفة لتحديد المعامالت الرئيسية المتعلقة بزمن الرحلة .خلصت النتائج الى أن التأخير في التقاطعات المسيطر
عليها باإلشارات الضوئية كان من العوامل الرئيسية المؤثرة على إجمالي زمن الرحلة و إجمالي زمن التأخر في الشوارع الحضرية
الرئيسية .إ ن خوارزميات تقدير زمن الرحلة المستندة على الكاشفات الحلقية لبيانات السرعة تتسبب في حدوث إختالفات طفيفة
عندما يكون مسار الدراسة قصي ﴽر نسبياً واإل نتقال البطيء من الحالة الحرة الى حالة الزحام ،وتتأثر نتائج زمن الرحلة بموقع
المستشعرات وقلة جودتها وبالتالي تزداد أخطاء التقدير بزيادة التباعد بين الكاشفات.
الكلمات المفتاحية :ا لتأخير ،نظام المواقع العالمي ،التحليل المكاني الزمني ،زمن الرحلة ،الشوارع الحضرية.
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