1.
The arrival rate of customers at a banking counter follows a poisson distibution with a mean
of 30 per hours. The service rate of the counter clerk also follows poisson distribution with
mean of 45 per hour. a) What is the probability of having zero customer in the system ? b)
What is the probability of having 8 customer in the system ? c) What is the probability of
having 12 customer in the system ? d) Find Ls, Lq, Ws and Wq
Solution Given arrival rate follows poisson distribution with mean =30 = 30 per hour Given service
rate follows poisson distribution with mean = 45 = 45 Per hour Utilization factor = / =
30/45 = 2/3 = 0.67
a) The probability of having zero customer in the system P0 = 0 (1- ) = 1- = 1-0.67
= 0.33
b) The probability of having 8 customers in the system P8 = 8 (1- ) = (0.67)8 (1-0.67) = 0.0406 x
0.33 = 0.0134 Probability of having 12 customers in the system is P12 = 12 (1- ) = (0.67)12 (1-0.67)
= 0.0082 x 0.33 = 0.002706 Ls = = 0.67 1 - 1-0.67 = 0.67 = 2.03 0.33 = 2 customers Lq = 2 =
(0.67)2 = 0.4489 1- 1-0.67 0.33 = 1.36 = 1 Customer Ws = 1 = 1 = 1 - 45-30 15 = 0.0666 hour Wq
= = 0.67 = 0.67 - 45-30 15 = 0.4467 hour= 0.33
2. Vehicles are passing through a toll gate at the rate of 70 per hour. The average time to pass
through the gate is 45 seconds. The arrival rate and service rate follow poisson distibution.
There is a complaint that the vehicles wait for a long duration. The authorities are willing to
install one more gate to reduce the average time to pass through the toll gate to 35 seconds
if the idle time of the toll gate is less than 9% and the average queue length at the gate is
more than 8 vehicle, check whether the installation of the second gate is justified?
Solutions:- Arrival rate of vehicles at the toll gate = 70 per hour Time taken to pass through the
gate= 45 Seconds Service rate = 1 hours 45 seconds = 3600/45 = 80 = 80 Vehicles per hour
Utilization factor = / = 70 / 80 = 0.875 (a) Waiting no. of vehicles in the queue is Lq Lq = 2 / 1 -
= (0.875)2 1-0.875 = 0.7656 0.125 = 6.125 = 6 Vehicles (b) Revised time taken to pass through the
gate =30 seconds The new service rate after installation of an additional gate = 1 hour/35 Seconds
= 3600/35 = 102.68 Vehicles / hour Utilization factor = / = 70 / 102.86 = 0.681 Percentage of
idle time of the gate = (1-)% = (1-0.681)% = 0.319% = 31.9 = 32% This idle time is not less than 9%
which is expected. Therefore the installation of the second gate is not justified since the average
waiting number of vehicles in the queue is more than 8 but the idle time is not less than 32%. Hence
idle time is far greater than the number. of vehicles waiting in the queue.
3. The daily demand for bread loaves in the city can assume one of the following values: 3400,
3600, 3800 or 4000 with probabilities 0.18, 0.12, 0.20 or 0.5 respectively. If the stockist
stocks more than the requirement, he has a salvage value of ₹17 per bread loaf. Assuming
that a loaf of bread coast him ₹18, which he can sell at ₹20, find the optimum stock level
using the decision tree. There is no opportunity loss cost.
Example 16.18 of OR Oxford publication
1. A MNC has installed a beverages vending machine in its premises. This imported machine
requires costly spare parts during repairs and maintenance. The spare parts cost ₹4000each
but are available only when the machine is ordered. In case the vending machine has a
breakdown and the spares are not available, it will cost at least ₹20,000 for repairs, including
downtime, and for alternate arrangements. The vending machine has an estimated life of
five years and the probability distribution of failures every year over the five years period is
given in the table
No of failures per year Probability of failure
0 0.1
1 0.2
2 0.3
3 0.25
4 0.10
5 0.05
Determine the following
a) Decision on the basis of the ENV method
b) The regret table and the optimal choice on the basis of the lowest expected regret
criterion (EOL matrix)
Example 16.6 of OR Oxford publication
