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TOAE201-Slides-Chapter 2. Probability

This document covers fundamental concepts of probability and mathematical statistics, including definitions of events, sample spaces, and various counting rules. It explains the principles of random experiments, mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events, as well as unions, intersections, and complementary events. The content aims to provide a foundational understanding of probability theory and its applications.

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huyenbtm2003
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28 views19 pages

TOAE201-Slides-Chapter 2. Probability

This document covers fundamental concepts of probability and mathematical statistics, including definitions of events, sample spaces, and various counting rules. It explains the principles of random experiments, mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events, as well as unions, intersections, and complementary events. The content aims to provide a foundational understanding of probability theory and its applications.

Uploaded by

huyenbtm2003
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY

AND MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS

Events and their probabilities

Dr. Vuong Thi Thao Binh


[email protected]
0983466899
Learning Objectives

In this chapter, you learn:

◼ Basic probability concepts and definitions


◼ Basic Rules for Finding Probabilities
◼ Conditional probability
◼ To use Bayes’ Theorem to revise probabilities
◼ Various counting rules
Some Additional Counting Rules

Multiplicative Rule: n = n1n2…nk


Draw one element from A B C
each of k sets, sized n1, n2, n3, … nk

n!
A =
k

(n − k )!
n
k-permutations of n, partial permutation
Draw k elements, arranged in a distinct order, from a set of n elements

Permutations P(n) = n!

Combination Rule
n! n(n − 1)...(n − k + 1)
C =
k
=
k! (n − k )!
n
k!
Random Experiment

◼ A random experiment is a process leading to


two or more possible outcomes, without
knowing exactly which outcome will occur.

◼ In each of the random experiments listed, we


can specify the possible outcomes, defined as
basic outcomes.
Sample Space

◼ Sample Space
The possible outcomes from a random experiment
are called the basic outcomes, and the set of all
basic outcomes is called the sample space. We
use the symbol S to denote the sample space.

We must define the basic outcomes in such a way that no two


outcomes can occur simultaneously. In addition, the random
experiment must necessarily lead to the occurrence of one of the basic
outcomes.
Random Experiment

◼ A coin is tossed and the outcome is either a


head or a tail.

◼ S = {head, tail}

Chap 4-9
Random Experiment

◼ Tossing a balanced die

◼ S = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6} = All 6 faces of a die

Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 4-10


Random Experiment
◼ An experiment consists of drawing one card
from a standard 52-card deck
4 suits: Hearts (♥), Diamonds (♦),
Clubs (♣), Spades (♠)

13 ranks in each suit:


A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K

◼ S={A♥, 2♥, ..., K♥, A♦, 2♦, ..., K♦, A♣, 2♣, ..., K♣
, A♠, 2♠, ..., K♠} = All 52 cards of a bridge deck

Chap 4-11
Events
◼ An event is a specific collection of basic
outcomes

An Ace
A four
A Head
Mutually Exclusive Events

◼ Mutually exclusive events


◼ Events that cannot occur together

example:

A = queen of diamonds; B = queen of clubs

◼ Events A and B are mutually exclusive


Collectively Exhaustive Events

◼ Collectively exhaustive events


◼ One of the events must occur
◼ The set of events covers the entire sample space

example:
A = aces; B = black cards;
C = diamonds; D = hearts

◼ Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive


(but not mutually exclusive – an ace may also be
a heart)
◼ Events B, C and D are collectively exhaustive and
also mutually exclusive
Unions and Intersections
Compound Events
Made of two or
more other events

Union Intersection
A  B or A+B A  B or A.B
Either A or B, Both A and B
or both, occur occur
Unions and Intersections
Unions and Intersections

AB AC

ABC

B BC C
Complementary Events
◼ The complement of any event A is the event
that A does not occur, AC or A
A: {Toss an even number}
AC: {Toss an odd number}

B: {Toss a number ≤ 3}
BC: {Toss a number ≥ 4}
A  B = {1,2,3,4,6}
[A  B]C = {5}
(Neither A nor B occur)
Complementary Events

( A + B ) = A .B
C C C

( A.B) = A + B
C C C

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