the FINAL final [198 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 34] EXM.3.AHL.TZ0.8

This question explores methods to analyse the scores in an exam.

A random sample of 149 scores for a university exam are given in the table.

(a.i) Find unbiased estimates for the population mean. [1]

Markscheme

52.8 A1

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find unbiased estimates for the population Variance. [2]

Markscheme

s
2
n−1
= 23.7
2
= 562 M1A1

[2 marks]

The university wants to know if the scores follow a normal distribution, with the mean
and variance found in part (a).

(b) Show that the expected frequency for 20 < x ≤ 4 is 31.5 correct to 1
decimal place. [3]

Markscheme

P (20 < x ⩽ 40) = 0.211 M1A1

0.211 × 149 M1
 = 31.5 AG

[3 marks]

The expected frequencies are given in the table.

(c) Perform a suitable test, at the 5% significance level, to determine if the

scores follow a normal distribution, with the mean and variance found
in part (a). You should clearly state your hypotheses, the degrees of
freedom, the p-value and your conclusion. [8]

Markscheme

use of a χ 2 goodness of fit test M1

H 0 : x ∼ N (52.8, 562) and A1A1

υ = 5 − 1 − 2 = 2 A1

p-value = 0.569 A2

Since 0.569 > 0.05 R1

Insufficient evidence to reject H 0 . The scores follow a normal distribution. A1

[8 marks]

The university assigns a pass grade to students whose scores are in the top 80%.

(d) Use the normal distribution model to find the score required to pass. [2]

Markscheme

Φ
−1
(0.2) = 32.8 M1A1
 [2 marks]

The university also wants to know if the exam is gender neutral. They obtain random
samples of scores for male and female students. The mean, sample variance and sample
size are shown in the table.

(e) Perform a suitable test, at the 5% significance level, to determine if there

is a difference between the mean scores of males and females. You
should clearly state your hypotheses, the p-value and your conclusion. [6]

Markscheme

use of a t-test M1

H0 : μm = μf and H 1 : μ m ≠ μf A1

p-value = 0.180 A2

Since 0.180 > 0.05 R1

Insufficient evidence to reject H 0 . There is no difference between males and

females. A1

[6 marks]

The university awards a distinction to students who achieve high scores in the exam.
Typically, 15% of students achieve a distinction. A new exam is trialed with a random
selection of students on the course. 5 out of 20 students achieve a distinction.

(f ) Perform a suitable test, at the 5% significance level, to determine if it is

easier to achieve a distinction on the new exam. You should clearly state
your hypotheses, the critical region and your conclusion. [6]

Markscheme
 use of test for proportion using Binomial distribution M1

H 0 : p = 0.15 and H 1 : p > 0.15 A1

P (X ⩾ 6) = 0.0673 and P (X ⩾ 7) = 0.0219 M1

So the critical region is X ⩾ 7 A1

Since 5 < 7 R1

Insufficient evidence to reject H 0 . It is not easier to achieve a distinction on the

new exam. A1

[6 marks]

A different exam is trialed with 16 students. Let p be the percentage of students

achieving a distinction. It is desired to test the hypotheses

H 0 : p = 0.15 against H 1 : p > 0.15

It is decided to reject the null hypothesis if the number of students achieving a

distinction is greater than 3.

(g.i) Find the probability of making a Type I error. [3]

Markscheme

using H 0 , X ∼ B (16, 0.15) M1

P (X > 3) = 0.210 M1A1

[3 marks]

(g.ii) Given that p = 0.2 find the probability of making a Type II error. [3]

Markscheme

using H 1 , X ∼ B (16, 0.2) M1

P (X ⩽ 3) = 0.598 M1A1
 [3 marks]

2. [Maximum mark: 28] 22M.3.AHL.TZ1.1

This question is about modelling the spread of a computer virus to predict the
number of computers in a city which will be infected by the virus.

A systems analyst defines the following variables in a model:

t is the number of days since the first computer was infected by the virus.
Q(t) is the total number of computers that have been infected up to and including
day t.

The following data were collected:

(a.i) Find the equation of the regression line of Q(t) on t. [2]

Markscheme

Q(t) = 3090t − 54000 (3094. 27 … t − 54042. 3 …) A1A1

Note: Award at most A1A0 if answer is not an equation. Award A1A0 for an answer
including either x or y.

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Write down the value of r, Pearson’s product-moment correlation

coefficient. [1]

Markscheme
 0. 755 (0. 754741 …) A1

[1 mark]

(a.iii) Explain why it would not be appropriate to conduct a hypothesis test

on the value of r found in (a)(ii). [1]

Markscheme

t is not a random variable OR it is not a (bivariate) normal distribution

OR data is not a sample from a population

OR data appears nonlinear

OR r only measures linear correlation R1

Note: Do not accept “r is not large enough”.

[1 mark]

A model for the early stage of the spread of the computer virus suggests that

Q′(t) = βN Q(t)

where N is the total number of computers in a city and β is a measure of how easily the
virus is spreading between computers. Both N and β are assumed to be constant.

(b.i) Find the general solution of the differential equation

Q′(t) = βN Q(t). [4]

Markscheme

attempt to separate variables (M1)

 1
∫ d Q = ∫ βN d t
Q

ln|Q| = βN t + c A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for LHS, A1 for βN t, and A1 for +c.

Award full marks for Q = e

βN t+c
OR Q = Ae
βN t
.

Award M1A1A1A0 for Q = e

βN t

[4 marks]

(b.ii) Using the data in the table write down the equation for an
appropriate non-linear regression model. [2]

Markscheme

attempt at exponential regression (M1)

A1
0.292t 0.292055…t
Q = 1. 15e (Q = 1. 14864 … e )

OR

attempt at exponential regression (M1)

A1
t t
Q = 1. 15 × 1. 34 (1. 14864 … × 1. 33917 … )

Note: Condone answers involving y or x. Condone absence of “Q =” Award M1A0

for an incorrect answer in correct format.

[2 marks]

(b.iii) Write down the value of R 2 for this model. [1]

 Markscheme

0. 999 (0. 999431 …) A1

[1 mark]

(b.iv) Hence comment on the suitability of the model from (b)(ii) in

comparison with the linear model found in part (a). [2]

Markscheme

comparing something to do with R 2 and something to do with r M1

Note: Examples of where the M1 should be awarded:

2
R > r

R > r

0. 999 > 0. 755

2
0. 999 > 0. 755 (= 0. 563)

The “correlation coefficient” in the exponential model is larger.

Model B has a larger R 2

Examples of where the M1 should not be awarded:

The exponential model shows better correlation (since not clear how it is being
measured)
Model 2 has a better fit
Model 2 is more correlated

an unambiguous comparison between R 2 and r 2 or R and r leading to the

conclusion that the model in part (b) is more suitable / better A1
 Note: Condone candidates claiming that R is the “correlation coefficient” for the
non-linear model.

[2 marks]

(b.v) By considering large values of t write down one criticism of the model
found in (b)(ii). [1]

Markscheme

it suggests that there will be more infected computers than the entire population
R1

Note: Accept any response that recognizes unlimited growth.

[1 mark]

(c) Use your answer from part (b)(ii) to estimate the time taken for the
number of infected computers to double. [2]

Markscheme

OR OR OR using the
0.292t t ln 2
1. 15e = 2. 3 1. 15 × 1. 34 = 2. 3 t =
0.292

model to find two specific times with values of Q(t) which double M1

t = 2. 37 (days) A1

Note: Do not FT from a model which is not exponential. Award M0A0 for an answer of
2. 13 which comes from using (10, 20) from the data or any other answer which
finds a doubling time from figures given in the table.
 [2 marks]

The data above are taken from city X which is estimated to have 2. 6 million computers.
The analyst looks at data for another city, Y. These data indicate a value of
β = 9. 64 × 10
−8
.

(d) Find in which city, X or Y, the computer virus is spreading more easily.
Justify your answer using your results from part (b). [3]

Markscheme

an attempt to calculate β for city X (M1)

OR
0.292055… ln 1.33917…
β = 6
β = 6
2.6×10 2.6×10

= 1. 12328 … × 10
−7
A1

−8
this is larger than 9. 64 × 10 so the virus spreads more easily in city X R1

Note: It is possible to award M1A0R1.

Condone “so the virus spreads faster in city X” for the final R1.

[3 marks]

An estimate for Q′(t), t ≥ 5, can be found by using the formula:

Q(t+5)−Q(t−5)
Q′(t) ≈
10
.

The following table shows estimates of Q′(t) for city X at different values of t.
(e) Determine the value of a and of b. Give your answers correct to one
decimal place. [2]

Markscheme

a = 38. 3, b = 3086. 1 A1A1

Note: Award A1A0 if values are correct but not to 1 dp.

[2 marks]

An improved model for Q(t), which is valid for large values of t, is the
logistic differential equation

Q(t)
Q′(t) = kQ(t)(1 − )
L

where k and L are constants.

Q′(t)
Based on this differential equation, the graph of Q(t)
against Q(t) is predicted to be a
straight line.

(f.i) Use linear regression to estimate the value of k and of L. [5]

Markscheme

Q′
(A1)(A1)
−6
= 0. 42228 − 2. 5561 × 10 Q
Q

Note: Award A1 for each coefficient seen – not necessarily in the equation. Do not
penalize seeing in the context of y and x.

identifying that the constant is k OR that the gradient is − L (M1)

k

therefore k = 0. 422 (0. 422228 …) A1

 k −6
= 2. 5561 × 10
L

L = 165000 (165205) A1

Note: Accept a value of L of 164843 from use of 3 sf value of k, or any other

value from plausible pre-rounding.
Allow follow-through within the question part, from the equation of their line to
the final two A1 marks.

[5 marks]

(f.ii) The solution to the differential equation is given by

L
Q(t) = −kt
1+Ce

where C is a constant.

Using your answer to part (f )(i), estimate the percentage of computers

in city X that are expected to have been infected by the virus over a
long period of time. [2]

Markscheme

recognizing that their L is the eventual number of infected (M1)

165205…

2600000
= 6. 35% (6. 35403 … %) A1

Note: Accept any final answer consistent with their answer to part (f )(i) unless their
L is less than 120146 in which case award at most M1A0.

[2 marks]

3. [Maximum mark: 7] 19N.3.AHL.TZ0.Hsp_1

Peter, the Principal of a college, believes that there is an association between the score in
a Mathematics test, X , and the time taken to run 500 m, Y seconds, of his students. The
following paired data are collected.

It can be assumed that (X, Y ) follow a bivariate normal distribution with product
moment correlation coefficient ρ.

(a.i) State suitable hypotheses H 0 and H 1 to test Peter’s claim, using a two-
tailed test. [1]

Markscheme

H0 : ρ = 0 H1 : ρ ≠ 0 A1

Note: It must be ρ.

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Carry out a suitable test at the 5 % significance level. With reference to
the p-value, state your conclusion in the context of Peter’s claim. [4]

Markscheme

p = 0.649 A2

Note: Accept anything that rounds to 0.65

0.649 > 0.05 R1

hence, we accept H 0 and conclude that Peter’s claim is wrong A1

Note: The A mark depends on the R mark and the answer must be given in context.
Follow through the p-value in part (b).

[4 marks]
 (b) Peter uses the regression line of y on x as y = 0.248x + 83.0 and
calculates that a student with a Mathematics test score of 73 will have a
running time of 101 seconds. Comment on the validity of his
calculation. [2]

Markscheme

a statement along along the lines of ‘(we have accepted that) the two variables are
independent’ or ‘the two variables are weakly correlated’ R1

a statement along the lines of ‘the use of the regression line is invalid’ or ‘it would
give an inaccurate result’ R1

Note: Award the second R1 only if the first R1 is awarded.

Note: FT the conclusion in(a)(ii). If a candidate concludes that the claim is correct,
mark as follows: (as we have accepted H1) the 2 variables are dependent and 73 lies
in the range of x values R1, hence the use of the regression line is valid R1.

[2 marks]

4. [Maximum mark: 27] 22M.3.AHL.TZ2.1

This question uses statistical tests to investigate whether advertising leads to
increased profits for a grocery store.

Aimmika is the manager of a grocery store in Nong Khai. She is carrying out a statistical
analysis on the number of bags of rice that are sold in the store each day. She collects the
following sample data by recording how many bags of rice the store sells each day over
a period of 90 days.

She believes that her data follows a Poisson distribution.

(a.i) Find the mean and variance for the sample data given in the table. [2]
 Markscheme

mean = 4. 23 (4. 23333 …) A1

variance = 4. 27 (4. 26777 …) A1

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Hence state why Aimmika believes her data follows a Poisson
distribution. [1]

Markscheme

mean is close to the variance A1

[1 mark]

(b) State one assumption that Aimmika needs to make about the sales of
bags of rice to support her belief that it follows a Poisson distribution. [1]

Markscheme

One of the following:

the number of bags sold each day is independent of any other day

the sale of one bag is independent of any other bag sold

the sales of bags of rice (each day) occur at a constant mean rate A1

Note: Award A1 for a correct answer in context. Any statement referring to

independence must refer to either the independence of each bag sold or the
independence of the number of bags sold each day. If the third option is seen, the
 statement must refer to a “constant mean” or “constant average”. Do not accept “the
number of bags sold each day is constant”.

[1 mark]

Aimmika knows from her historic sales records that the store sells an average of 4. 2
bags of rice each day. The following table shows the expected frequency of bags of rice
sold each day during the 90 day period, assuming a Poisson distribution with mean 4. 2
.

(c) Find the value of a, of b, and of c. Give your answers to 3 decimal

places. [5]

Markscheme

attempt to find Poisson probabilities and multiply by 90 (M1)

a = 7. 018 A1

b = 17. 498 A1

EITHER

90 × P(X ≥ 8) = 90 × (1 − P(X ≤ 7)) (M1)

c = 5. 755 A1

OR

90 − 7. 018 − 11. 903 − 16. 665 − 17. 498 − 14. 698 − 10. 289 − 6. 173

(M1)
 c = 5. 756 A1

Note: Do not penalize the omission of clear a, b and c labelling as this will be
penalized later if correct values are interchanged.

[5 marks]

Aimmika decides to carry out a χ 2 goodness of fit test at the 5% significance level to
see whether the data follows a Poisson distribution with mean 4. 2.

(d.i) Write down the number of degrees of freedom for her test. [1]

Markscheme

7 A1

[1 mark]

(d.ii) Perform the χ 2 goodness of fit test and state, with reason, a conclusion. [7]

Markscheme

H 0 : The number of bags of rice sold each day follows a Poisson distribution with
mean 4. 2. A1

H 1 : The number of bags of rice sold each day does not follow a Poisson
distribution with mean 4. 2. A1

Note: Award A1A1 for both hypotheses correctly stated and in correct order. Award
A1A0 if reference to the data and/or “mean 4. 2” is not included in the hypotheses,
but otherwise correct.
 evidence of attempting to group data to obtain the observed frequencies for ≤ 1

and ≥ 8 (M1)

p-value = 0. 728 (0. 728100 …) A2

0. 728 (0. 728100 …) > 0. 05 R1

the result is not significant so there is no reason to reject H 0 (the number of bags
sold each day follows a Poisson distribution) A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. The conclusion MUST follow through from their
hypotheses. If no hypotheses are stated, the final A1 can still be awarded for a
correct conclusion as long as it is in context (e.g. therefore the data follows a
Poisson distribution).

[7 marks]

Aimmika claims that advertising in a local newspaper for 300 Thai Baht (THB) per
day will increase the number of bags of rice sold. However, Nichakarn, the owner of the
store, claims that the advertising will not increase the store’s overall profit.

Nichakarn agrees to advertise in the newspaper for the next 60 days. During that
time, Aimmika records that the store sells 282 bags of rice with a profit of 495 THB
on each bag sold.

Aimmika wants to carry out an appropriate hypothesis test to determine whether

the number of bags of rice sold during the 60 days increased when compared with
the historic sales records.

(e.i) By finding a critical value, perform this test at a 5 % significance level. [6]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

evidence of multiplying 4. 2 × 60 (seen anywhere) M1

H 0 : μ = 252

H 1 : μ > 252 A1

Note: Accept H 0 : μ = 4. 2 and H 1 : μ > 4. 2 for the A1.

evidence of finding probabilities around critical region (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for any of these values seen:

P(X ≥ 277) = 0. 0630518 … OR P(X ≤ 276) = 0. 936948 …

P(X ≥ 278) = 0. 0558415 … OR P(X ≤ 277) = 0. 944158 …

P(X ≥ 279) = 0. 0493055 … OR P(X ≤ 278) = 0. 950694 …

critical value = 279 A1

282 ≥ 279 , R1

the null hypothesis is rejected A1

(the advertising increased the number of bags sold during the 60 days)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept statements referring to the advertising being
effective for A1 as long as the R mark is satisfied. For the R1A1, follow through within
the part from their critical value.

METHOD 2

evidence of dividing 282 by 60 (or 4. 7 seen anywhere) M1

H 0 : μ = 4. 2

H 1 : μ > 4. 2 A1

attempt to find critical value using central limit theorem (M1)

 4.2 4.2
(e.g. sample standard deviation = √
60
, X ~N (4. 2, √
60
), etc.)

Note: Award (M1) for a p-value of 0. 0293907 … seen.

critical value = 4. 63518 … A1

4. 7 > 4. 63518 … R1

the null hypothesis is rejected A1

(the advertising increased the number of bags sold during the 60 days)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept statements referring to the advertising being
effective for A1 as long as the R mark is satisfied. For the R1A1, follow through within
the part from their critical value.

[6 marks]

(e.ii) Hence state the probability of a Type I error for this test. [1]

Markscheme

(P(X ≥ 279 μ = 252) =) 0. 0493 (0. 0493055 …) A1

Note: If a candidate uses METHOD 2 in part (e)(i), allow an FT answer of 0. 05 for

this part but only if the candidate has attempted to find a p-value.

[1 mark]

(f ) By considering the claims of both Aimmika and Nichakarn, explain

whether the advertising was beneficial to the store. [3]
Markscheme

attempt to compare profit difference with cost of advertising (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for evidence of candidate mathematically comparing a profit

difference with the cost of the advertising.

EITHER

(comparing profit from 30 extra bags of rice with cost of advertising)

14850 < 18000 A1

OR

(comparing total profit with and without advertising)

121590 < 124740 A1

OR

(comparing increase of average daily profit with daily advertising cost)

247. 50 < 300 A1

THEN

EITHER

Even though the number of bags of rice increased, the advertising is not worth it as
the overall profit did not increase. R1

OR

The advertising is worth it even though the cost is less than the increased profit,
since the number of customers increased (possibly buying other products and/or
returning in the future after advertising stops) R1
 Note: Follow through within the part for correct reasoning consistent with their
comparison.

[3 marks]

5. [Maximum mark: 27] SPM.3.AHL.TZ0.1

Two IB schools, A and B, follow the IB Diploma Programme but have different teaching
methods. A research group tested whether the different teaching methods lead to a
similar final result.

For the test, a group of eight students were randomly selected from each school. Both
samples were given a standardized test at the start of the course and a prediction for
total IB points was made based on that test; this was then compared to their points total
at the end of the course.

Previous results indicate that both the predictions from the standardized tests and the
final IB points can be modelled by a normal distribution.

It can be assumed that:

the standardized test is a valid method for predicting the final IB points
that variations from the prediction can be explained through the circumstances
of the student or school.

(a) Identify a test that might have been used to verify the null hypothesis
that the predictions from the standardized test can be modelled by a
normal distribution. [1]

Markscheme

χ
2
(goodness of fit) A1

[1 mark]
(b) State why comparing only the final IB points of the students from the
two schools would not be a valid test for the effectiveness of the two
different teaching methods. [1]

Markscheme

EITHER

because aim is to measure improvement

OR

because the students may be of different ability in the two schools R1

[1 mark]

The data for school A is shown in the following table.

For each student, the change from the predicted points to the final points (f − p) was

calculated.

(c.i) Find the mean change. [1]

 Markscheme

0.1875 (accept 0.188, 0.19) A1

[1 mark]

(c.ii) Find the standard deviation of the changes. [2]

Markscheme

2.46 (M1)A1

Note: Award (M1)A0 for 2.63.

[2 marks]

(d) Use a paired t-test to determine whether there is significant evidence

that the students in school A have improved their IB points since the
start of the course. [4]

Markscheme

H0 : there has been no improvement

H1 : there has been an improvement A1

attempt at a one-tailed paired t-test (M1)

p-value = 0.423 A1

there is no significant evidence that the students have improved R1

Note: If the hypotheses are not stated award a maximum of A0M1A1R0.

[4 marks]

The data for school B is shown in the following table.

(e.i) Use an appropriate test to determine whether there is evidence, at the 5
% significance level, that the students in school B have improved more
than those in school A. [5]

Markscheme

H0 : there is no difference between the schools

H1 : school B did better than school A A1

one-tailed 2 sample t-test (M1)

p-value = 0.0984 A1

0.0984 > 0.05 (not significant at the 5 % level) so do not reject the null hypothesis
R1A1

Note: The final A1 cannot be awarded following an incorrect reason. The final R1A1
can follow through from their incorrect p-value. Award a maximum of A1(M1)A0R1A1
for p-value = 0.0993.

[5 marks]
(e.ii) State why it was important to test that both sets of points were normally
distributed. [1]

Markscheme

sample too small for the central limit theorem to apply (and t-tests assume normal
distribution) R1

[1 mark]

School A also gives each student a score for effort in each subject. This effort score is
based on a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is regarded as outstanding effort.

It is claimed that the effort put in by a student is an important factor in improving upon
their predicted IB points.

(f.i) Perform a test on the data from school A to show it is reasonable to

assume a linear relationship between effort scores and improvements in
IB points. You may assume effort scores follow a normal distribution. [3]

Markscheme

H0 : ρ = 0

H0 : ρ > 0 A1
 Note: Allow hypotheses to be expressed in words.

p-value = 0.00157 A1

(0.00157 < 0.01) there is a significant evidence of a (linear) correlation between

effort and improvement (so it is reasonable to assume a linear relationship) R1

[3 marks]

(f.ii) Hence, find the expected improvement between predicted and final
points for an increase of one unit in effort grades, giving your answer to
one decimal place. [1]

Markscheme

(gradient of line of regression =) 6.6 A1

[1 mark]

A mathematics teacher in school A claims that the comparison between the two schools
is not valid because the sample for school B contained mainly girls and that for school A,
mainly boys. She believes that girls are likely to show a greater improvement from their
predicted points to their final points.

She collects more data from other schools, asking them to class their results into four
categories as shown in the following table.

(g) Use an appropriate test to determine whether showing an

improvement is independent of gender. [6]

Markscheme
 H0 : improvement and gender are independent

H1 : improvement and gender are not independent A1

choice of χ 2 test for independence (M1)

groups first two columns as expected values in first column less than 5 M1

new observed table

(A1)

p-value = 0.581 A1

no significant evidence that gender and improvement are dependent R1

[6 marks]

(h) If you were to repeat the test performed in part (e) intending to
compare the quality of the teaching between the two schools, suggest
two ways in which you might choose your sample to improve the
validity of the test. [2]

Markscheme

For example:

larger samples / include data from whole school

take equal numbers of boys and girls in each sample

have a similar range of abilities in each sample

(if possible) have similar ranges of effort R1R1

Note: Award R1 for each reasonable suggestion to improve the validity of the test.
 [2 marks]

6. [Maximum mark: 26] 24M.3.AHL.TZ1.1

The purpose of this question is to help a company decide whether or not they should
use a new technique to make a component.

A factory produces components for a tractor. They have designed a new technique to
produce one of their components that they hope will increase its useful lifespan.

They test 120 components made with the new technique and 240 with the technique
they currently use. At the end of 250 hours of use, they check the components, and
record whether they have no cracks, minor cracks or major cracks.

The data from the trial are given in the table.

In total 141 components had no cracks.

(a.i) Show that the value of a is 53. [1]

Markscheme

141 − 88 A1

= 53 AG

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find the value of b. [1]

Markscheme
 (120 − 53 − 54 =) 13 A1

[1 mark]

One of the components from the trial is selected at random.

(b) Given that this component had minor cracks find the probability that it
was produced by the new technique. [2]

Markscheme

Restricting the size of the sample space to 150 (54 + 96) (M1)

= 0. 36 (
54

150
,
9

25
) A1

[2 marks]

(c) A χ 2 test for independence is performed at the 5% significance level

to determine whether a component having no cracks, minor cracks or
major cracks is independent of the production technique used.

(c.i) State the null and alternative hypotheses. [1]

Markscheme

H 0 : The development of cracks and the technique used are independent

H 1 : The development of cracks and the technique used are not independent A1

Note: Condone equivalent statements such as ‘not dependent’ but do not accept
“uncorrelated” or “not related” in place of “independent”.

[1 mark]

(c.ii) Find the p-value. [2]

Markscheme
 (p − value =) 0. 0170 (0. 0169864 …) (M1)A1

[2 marks]

(c.iii) State the conclusion of the test in context, justifying your answer. [2]

Markscheme

0. 0170 < 0. 05 R1

hence there is sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the
development of cracks and the technique used are independent. A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

[2 marks]

(d) For the components in the trial that were made with the current
technique, show that the proportion which developed cracks is 19

30
.

[1]

Markscheme

96+56

240
(=
152

240
) A1

19

30
AG

[1 mark]

As an alternative measure, the researchers decide to let p be the probability that a

component, made with the new technique, develops cracks. They then test the following
hypotheses

H0 : p =
19

30
'

H1 : p <
19

30
.
In a randomly selected sample of 120 components made with the new technique let X
be the number which developed cracks. The researchers assume that, under the null
hypothesis, X~B(120, 19

30
).

(e) State one additional assumption that the researchers are making in
choosing this distribution. [1]

Markscheme

EITHER

the probability of each component developing cracks is independent of all the

other components in the sample. R1

Note: Do not accept the word “independence” on its own. Appropriate context
must be seen.

OR

the development of cracks can be partitioned into two clear groups R1

Note: Do not accept ‘the samples are representative of the population’.

[1 mark]

(f ) Use appropriate data from the trial to perform the test proposed by the
researchers, at the 5% significance level. State the conclusion of the
test, justifying your answer. [5]

Markscheme

67 seen (A1)

EITHER

attempt to find a probability ≤ 67 (condone strict inequality for (M1)) (M1)

(P(X ≤ 67) =) 0. 0549 (0. 0549093 …) A1
 Note: Award (A1)(M1)A0 for an unsupported p = 0. 0372, from use of strict
inequality.

0. 0549 > 0. 05 R1

OR

attempt to find the critical region (M1)

critical region is X ≤ 66 A1

66 < 67 or '67 is not in the critical region’ R1

THEN

EITHER
do not reject the null hypothesis (as there is insufficient evidence that the new
technique reduces the number of cracks). A1

OR
do not accept the alternative hypothesis (as there is insufficient evidence that the
new technique reduces the number of cracks). A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

Only follow through within part (f ) for final R1A1 if the (M1) has been awarded.
Do not condone “accept the null hypothesis”.

[5 marks]

(g) In comparison with the test in part (c), state one mathematical reason
why

(g.i) the test in part (f ) might be preferred [1]

Markscheme
 the test for a proportion is directional and so considers whether the new treatment
reduces the number of components developing cracks. R1

[1 mark]

(g.ii) the test in part (f ) might not be preferred. [1]

Markscheme

EITHER

there could be variation in the value of p chosen for the null hypothesis /
the value of p from the sample might not be a representative of the current
technique R1

OR
the test in (f ) does not treat minor and major cracks as different attributes /
the test in (c) does treat minor and major cracks as different attributes R1

OR
the test in (f ) has to make an additional assumption (for example ‘independence’)
R1

[1 mark]

For these components, the researchers also consider the mean time taken until cracks
develop. It is hoped that using the new technique will increase this value. A second trial
is carried out and the times, in hours, taken for cracks to appear is recorded.

The mean time taken for cracks to appear ( t̄ ) and the value of s n−1 for each technique
are given in the following table.
(h) Perform an appropriate test at the 5% significance level to determine
whether the new technique increases the mean time taken for cracks to
appear. [7]

Markscheme

EITHER
let μ 1 be the mean length of time before cracks appear with the new technique
and μ 2 be the mean length with the current technique
H0 : μ1 = μ2 A1
H1 : μ1 > μ2 A1

Note: Award A1A0 for correct hypotheses in which the two population means are
not clearly defined (e.g. unsupported μ 1 and μ 2 ).

OR
H 0 : the POPULATION mean length of time before cracks appear is the same for
both groups A1
H 1 :the new technique increases the POPULATION mean length of time before

cracks appear. A1

OR
H 0 : the mean length of time before cracks appear in ALL components made with
the new technique is the same as for ALL components made with the current
technique. A1
H 1 : the mean length of time before cracks appear in ALL components made with

the new technique is greater than the mean for ALL components made with the
current technique. A1

Note: Award A1A0 if “population” (or equivalent, such as “all”) is omitted from an
otherwise correct answer.

THEN

recognition of the need to use of a two-sample test (M1)

p-value = 0. 0162 (0. 0162328 …) A2

 Note: If not pooled, answer is 0. 0164368 … award (M1)A2.

0. 0162 < 0. 05 R1

reject the null hypothesis (OR accept the alternative hypothesis) A1

(there is sufficient evidence to that the new technique increases the mean length of
time before the cracks appear)

Note: Do not award R0A1.

Follow through within part (h) for the last R1A1, provided their p-value is between 0
and 1 inclusive.

[7 marks]

The company decides to go ahead with the new technique and publishes the following
statement: “statistical tests show the new technique will significantly increase the time
before components crack and need to be replaced”.

(i) Comment on this statement. [1]

Markscheme

EITHER

(though statistically significant) the new technique only seems to increase the time
before cracks appear by 1 hour out of 250, so it is not a significant increase (i.e. the
effect size is small) R1

OR

the minimum time (not mean time) before cracks appear should be considered
given the context / An appropriate confidence interval should be considered, and
not simply the mean. R1
 Note: If a not significant p-value was seen in part (h), do not award R1 for an answer
of “the result is not significant” in part (i).

[1 mark]

7. [Maximum mark: 6] EXN.1.SL.TZ0.3

The weights of apples on a tree can be modelled by a normal distribution with a mean
of 85 grams and a standard deviation of 7. 5 grams.

(a) Find the probability that an apple from the tree has a weight greater
than 90 grams. [2]

Markscheme

* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior

examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new MAA
course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to formal exam
papers.

Let the weight of an apple be X

P(X > 90) = 0. 252 (0. 252492 …) (M1)A1

[2 marks]

A sample of apples are taken from 2 trees, A and B, in different parts of the orchard.

The data is shown in the table below.

The owner of the orchard wants to know whether the mean weight of the apples from
tree A(μ A ) is greater than the mean weight of the apples from tree B(μ B ) so sets up
 the following test:

H0 : μA = μB and H 1 : μ A > μ B
(b.i) Find the p-value for the owner’s test. [2]

Markscheme

p-value = 0. 0189 (0. 018947 …) (M1)A1

[2 marks]

(b.ii) The test is performed at the 5% significance level.

State the conclusion of the test, giving a reason for your answer. [2]

Markscheme

0. 0189 < 0. 05 R1

Sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis (that the weights of apples from
the two trees are equal) A1

[2 marks]

8. [Maximum mark: 28] 21M.3.AHL.TZ1.2

A firm wishes to review its recruitment processes. This question considers the
validity and reliability of the methods used.

Every year an accountancy firm recruits new employees for a trial period of one year
from a large group of applicants.

At the start, all applicants are interviewed and given a rating. Those with a rating of
either Excellent, Very good or Good are recruited for the trial period. At the end of this
period, some of the new employees will stay with the firm.
It is decided to test how valid the interview rating is as a way of predicting which of the
new employees will stay with the firm.

Data is collected and recorded in a contingency table.

(a) Use an appropriate test, at the 5% significance level, to determine

whether a new employee staying with the firm is independent of their
interview rating. State the null and alternative hypotheses, the p-value
and the conclusion of the test. [6]

Markscheme

Use of χ 2 test for independence (M1)

H 0 : Staying (or leaving) the firm and interview rating are independent.
H1 : Staying (or leaving) the firm and interview rating are not independent

A1

Note: For H 1 accept ‘…are dependent’ in place of ‘…not independent’.

p-value = 0. 487 (0. 487221 …) A2

Note: Award A1 for χ 2 = 1. 438 … if p-value is omitted or incorrect.

0. 487 > 0. 05 R1

(the result is not significant at the 5% level)

insufficient evidence to reject the H 0 (or “accept H 0 ”) A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. The final R1A1 can follow through from their incorrect p-
 value

[6 marks]

The next year’s group of applicants are asked to complete a written assessment which is
then analysed. From those recruited as new employees, a random sample of size 18 is
selected.

The sample is stratified by department. Of the 91 new employees recruited that year, 55
were placed in the national department and 36 in the international department.

(b) Show that 11 employees are selected for the sample from the national
department. [2]

Markscheme

55

91
× 18 = 10. 9 (10. 8791 …) M1A1

Note: Award A1 for anything that rounds to 10. 9.

≈ 11 AG

[2 marks]

At the end of their first year, the level of performance of each of the 18 employees in
the sample is assessed by their department manager. They are awarded a score between
1 (low performance) and 10 (high performance).

The marks in the written assessment and the scores given by the managers are shown
in both the table and the scatter diagram.
The firm decides to find a Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, r s , for this data.
(c.i) Without calculation, explain why it might not be appropriate to
calculate a correlation coefficient for the whole sample of 18
employees. [2]

Markscheme

there seems to be a difference between the two departments (A1)

the international department manager seems to be less generous than the national
department manager R1

Note: The A1 is for commenting there is a difference between the two departments
and the R1 is for correctly commenting on the direction of the difference
 [2 marks]

(c.ii) Find r s for the seven employees working in the international

department. [4]

Markscheme

(M1)(A1)

Note: Award (M1) for an attempt to rank the data, and (A1) for correct ranks for both
variables. Accept either set of rankings in reverse.

r s = 0. 909 (0. 909241 …) (M1)(A1)

Note: The (M1) is for calculating the PMCC for their ranks.

Note: If a final answer of 0. 9107 is seen, from use of 1 − , award (M1)

6Σd
2
n(n −1)

(A1)A1.
Accept −0. 909 if one set of ranks has been ordered in reverse.

[4 marks]

(c.iii) Hence comment on the validity of the written assessment as a measure

of the level of performance of employees in this department. Justify
your answer. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER
 there is a (strong) association between the written assessment mark and the
manager scores. A1

OR

there is a (strong) agreement in the rank order of the written assessment marks and
the rank order of the manager scores. A1

OR

there is a (strong linear) correlation between the rank order of the written
assessment marks and the rank order of the manager scores. A1

Note: Follow through on a value for their value of r s in c(ii).

THEN

the written assessment is likely to be a valid measure (of the level of employee
performance) R1

[2 marks]

The same seven employees are given the written assessment a second time, at the end
of the first year, to measure its reliability. Their marks are shown in the table below.

(d.i) State the name of this type of test for reliability. [1]

Markscheme
 test-retest A1

[1 mark]

(d.ii) For the data in this table, test the null hypothesis, H 0 : ρ = 0, against

the alternative hypothesis, H 1 : ρ > 0, at the 5% significance level.

You may assume that all the requirements for carrying out the test have
been met. [4]

Markscheme

p-value = 0. 00209 (0. 0020939 …) A2

0. 00209 < 0. 05 R1

(the result is significant at the 5% level)

(there is sufficient evidence to) reject H 0 A1

Note: Do not award R0A1. Accept “accept H 1 ”. The final R1A1 can follow through
from their incorrect p-value.

[4 marks]

(d.iii) Hence comment on the reliability of the written assessment. [1]

Markscheme

the test seems reliable A1

Note: Follow through from their answer in part (d)(ii). Do not award if there is no
conclusion in d(ii).

[1 mark]
The written assessment is in five sections, numbered 1 to 5. At the end of the year, the
employees are also given a score for each of five professional attributes: V, W, X, Y

and Z.

The firm decides to test the hypothesis that there is a correlation between the mark in a
section and the score for an attribute.

They compare marks in each of the sections with scores for each of the attributes.

(e.i) Write down the number of tests they carry out. [1]

Markscheme

25 A1

[1 mark]

(e.ii) The tests are performed at the 5% significance level.

Assuming that:

there is no correlation between the marks in any of the sections

and scores in any of the attributes,
the outcome of each hypothesis test is independent of the
outcome of the other hypothesis tests,

find the probability that at least one of the tests will be significant. [4]

Markscheme

probability of significant result given no correlation is 0. 05 (M1)

probability of at least one significant result in 25 tests is

1 − 0. 95
25
(M1)(A1)

Note: Award (M1) for use of 1 − P(0) or the binomial distribution with any value
of p.
 = 0. 723 (0. 722610 …) A1

[4 marks]

(e.iii) The firm obtains a significant result when comparing section 2 of the
written assessment and attribute X. Interpret this result. [1]

Markscheme

(though the result is significant) it is very likely that one significant result would be
achieved by chance, so it should be disregarded or further evidence sought R1

[1 mark]

9. [Maximum mark: 15] 20N.3.AHL.TZ0.Hsp_3

A shop sells carrots and broccoli. The weights of carrots can be modelled by a
normal distribution with variance 25 grams
2
and the weights of broccoli can be
modelled by a normal distribution with variance 80 grams
2
. The shopkeeper claims
that the mean weight of carrots is 130 grams and the mean weight of broccoli is
400 grams.

(a) Assuming that the shopkeeper’s claim is correct, find the probability
that the weight of six randomly chosen carrots is more than two times
the weight of one randomly chosen broccoli. [6]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor
differences in marking or structure.

Let X = Σ C i − 2B M1
i=1
 E(X) = 6 × 130 − 2 × 400 = −20 (M1)(A1)

Var(X) = 6 × 25 + 4 × 80 = 470 (M1)(A1)

P(X > 0) = 0. 178 A1

Note: Condone the notation 6C − 2B only if the (M1) is awarded for the variance.

[6 marks]

Dong Wook decides to investigate the shopkeeper’s claim that the mean weight of
carrots is 130 grams. He plans to take a random sample of n carrots in order to
calculate a 98 % confidence interval for the population mean weight.

(b) Find the least value of n required to ensure that the width of the
confidence interval is less than 2 grams. [3]

Markscheme

z = 2. 326 … (A1)

2zσ
< 2 M1
√n

√n > 11. 6 …

n > 135. 2 …

n = 136 A1

Note: Condone the use of equal signs.

[3 marks]

Anjali thinks the mean weight, μ grams , of the broccoli is less than 400 grams. She
decides to perform a hypothesis test, using a random sample of size 8. Her hypotheses
are
 H0 : μ = 400 ; H1 : μ < 400.

She decides to reject H 0 if the sample mean is less than 395 grams.

(c) Find the significance level for this test. [3]

Markscheme

variance = 80

8
= 10 (A1)

under H 0 , B ~ N(400, 10)

¯

significance level = P(B < 395) (M1)

¯

= 0. 0569 or 5. 69% A1

Note: Accept any answer that rounds to 0. 057 or 5. 7%.

[3 marks]

(d) Given that the weights of the broccoli actually follow a normal
distribution with mean 392 grams and variance 80 grams
2
, find
the probability of Anjali making a Type II error. [3]

Markscheme

Type II error probability = P(Accept H 0 H 1 true) (M1)

¯
¯
= P(B >395 B ≈ N (392, 10)) (A1)

= 0. 171 A1

Note: Accept any answer that rounds to 0. 17.

[3 marks]
© International Baccalaureate Organization, 2025