CHAPTER 3

3. MEASURES OF CENTERAL TENDENCY

The Summation Notation:

PROPERTIES OF SUMMATION
n
∑ k=nk
1. i=1 where k is any constant
n n
∑ kX i= k ∑ X i
2. i=1 i=1 where k is any constant
n n
∑ ( a+bX i )= na+b ∑ X i
3. i=1 i =1 where a and b are any constant
n n n
∑ ( X i +Y i )=∑ X i + ∑ Y i
4. i=1 i=1 i =1

Example: considering the following data determine

X Y
5 6
7 7
7 8
6 7
8 8
5 5
∑ Xi ∑ ( X i −Y i )
a) i=1 33 e) i=1

-3
5 5
∑Yi ∑ Xi Y i
b) i=1 36 f) i=1

241
5 5
∑ 10 ∑ X i2
c) i=1 50. g) i=1

223
 5 5 5
∑ ( X i +Y i ) ( ∑ X i )( ∑ Y i )
d) i=1 h) i=1 i=1

69 1188

Types of measures of central tendency

 The Mean (Arithmetic, Geometric and Harmonic)
 The Mode
 The Median
 Quantiles (Quartiles, Deciles and Percentiles)

The Arithmetic Mean

 given by:
X + X 2 +. . .+ X n
X̄ = 1
n
n
∑ Xi
⇒ X̄=i =1
n
 If X1 occurs f1 times, if X2occurs f2 times, … , if Xn occurs fn times
k
∑ f i Xi
X̄ = i=1k k

∑ fi ∑ f i =n
Then the mean will be i =1 , where k is the number of classes and i=1
Example: Obtain the mean of the following number
2, 7, 8, 2, 7, 3, 7
Solution:
Xi fi Xifi
2 2 4
3 1 3
7 3 21
8 1 8
Total 7 36

4
∑ f i Xi
i=1 36
X̄ = 4
= =5 . 15
7
∑ fi
i =1
Arithmetic Mean for Grouped Data
k
∑ f i Xi
X̄ = i=1k , Where
∑ fi
i =1 Xi =the class mark of the ith class and fi = the frequency of the ith class
Example: calculate the mean for the following age distribution.
Class Frequency
 6- 10 35
11- 15 23
16- 20 15
21- 25 12
26- 30 9
31- 35 6
Solutions:
 First find the class marks
 Find the product of frequency and class marks
 Find mean using the formula.

Class fi Xi Xifi
6- 10 35 8 280
11- 15 23 13 299
16- 20 15 18 270
21- 25 12 23 276
26- 30 9 28 252
31- 35 6 33 198
Total 100 1575

6
∑ f i Xi
1575
X̄ = i=16 = =15 . 75
100
∑ fi
i =1
Special properties of Arithmetic mean
n
∑ ( X i − X̄ )=0 .
1. i=1
n n
∑ ( Xi− X̄ )2 < ∑ ( X i − A )2 , A≠ X̄
2. i=1 i =1
3. combined mean
k

X̄ 1 n1 + X̄ 2 n 2 +. .. .+ X̄ k nk
∑ X̄ i ni
i =1
X̄ c= =
n1 +n 2 +.. . nk k
∑ ni
i=1

Example: In a class there are 30 females and 70 males. If females averaged 60 in an

examination and boys averaged 72, find the mean for the entire class.
Solutions:

Females Males
X̄ 1 =60 X̄ 2=72
2
n1 =30 n2 =70
X̄ 1 n1 + X̄ 2 n2 i =1
∑ X̄ i ni
X̄ c= = 2
n 1 +n2
∑ ni
i =1
30( 60 )+70 ( 72) 6840
⇒ X̄ c = = =68 . 40
30+70 100
 4. correct mean
( CorrectValue−WrongValue )
CorrectMean=WrongMean +
n
Where n is total number of observations.

Example: An average weight of 10 students was calculated to be 65.Latter it was discovered

that one weight was misread as 40 instead of 80 kg. Calculate the correct average weight.

Solutions:
( CorrectValue−WrongValue)
CorrectMean=WrongMean +
n
( 80−40 )
CorrectMean=65+ =65+ 4=69 k . g .
10

5. The effect of transforming original series on the mean.

a) If a constant k is added/ subtracted to/from every observation then the new mean
will be the old mean± k respectively.
b) If every observations are multiplied by a constant k then the new mean will be
k*old mean

Weighted Mean
n
∑ Xi W i
i=1
X̄ w = n
∑ Wi
i −1
Example:
A student obtained the following percentage in an examination:
English 60, Biology 75, Mathematics 63, Physics 59, and chemistry 55.Find the students
weighted arithmetic mean if weights 1, 2, 1, 3, 3 respectively are allotted to the subjects.
Solutions:
5
∑ Xi W i
i=1 60∗1+75∗2+ 63∗1+59∗3+55∗3 615
X̄ w = 5
= = =61. 5
1+ 2+ 1+ 3+3 10
∑ Wi
i −1

Merits and Demerits of Arithmetic Mean

Merits:
 It is based on all observation.
 It is suitable for further mathematical treatment.
 It is stable average, i.e. it is not affected by fluctuations of sampling to some extent.
 It is easy to calculate and simple to understand.
 Demerits:
 It is affected by extreme observations.
 It can not be used in the case of open end classes.
 It can not be determined by the method of inspection.
 It can not be used when dealing with qualitative characteristics
The Mode
- Mode is a value which occurs most frequently in a set of values
- The mode may not exist and even if it does exist, it may not be unique.
Examples:
1. Find the mode of 5, 3, 5, 8, 9
Mode =5
2. Find the mode of 8, 9, 9, 7, 8, 2, and 5.
It is a bimodal Data: 8 and 9
3. Find the mode of 4, 12, 3, 6, and 7.
No mode for this data.
- The mode of a set of numbers X1, X2, …Xn is usually denoted by X
^
.

Mode for Grouped data

If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the mode is defined as:

( )
Δ1
^ =L + w
X mo
Δ1+ Δ2
Where:
X^ =the mod e of the distribution
w=the size of the mod al class
Δ 1=f mo −f 1
Δ 2 =f mo −f 2
f mo=frequency of the mod al class
f 1=frequency of the class preceeding the mod al class
f 2=frequency of the class following the mod al class
Note: The modal class is a class with the highest frequency.
Example: Following is the distribution of the size of certain farms selected at random from a
district. Calculate the mode of the distribution.
Size of farms No. of farms
5-15 8
15-25 12
25-35 17
35-45 29
45-55 31
55-65 5
 65-75 3
Solutions:
45−55 is the mod al class , sin ce it is a class with the highest frequency .
Lmo =45
w=10
Δ 1=f mo −f 1=2
Δ 2 =f mo −f 2=26
f mo=31
f 1=29
f 2=5
^
⇒ X=45+10
2
(
2+26 )
= 45 . 71

Merits and Demerits of Mode

Merits:
 It is not affected by extreme observations.
 Easy to calculate and simple to understand.
 It can be calculated for distribution with open end class
Demerits:
 It is not rigidly defined.
 It is not based on all observations
 It is not suitable for further mathematical treatment.
 It is not stable average
 Often its value is not unique.
The Median
-Median is denoted by X .
^
Median for ungrouped data

{
X [(n+1) /2 ] , If n is odd .
~
X= 1
( X [ n /2 ] + X [ ( n/ 2)+1] ) , If n is even
2

Example: Find the median of the following numbers.

a) 6, 5, 2, 8, 9, 4.
b) 2, 1, 8, 3, 5, 8.

Solutions:
a) First order the data: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
Here n=6
 ~ 1
X = ( X n +X n )
2 [ 2 ] [ 2 +1 ]
1
= ( X [3 ] +X [4 ] )
2
1
= (5+6 )=5 .5
2
b) Order the data :1, 2, 3, 5, 8
Here n=5
~
X = X n+1
[ ]
2
= X [3 ]
=3
Median for grouped data
If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the median is defined as:
~ w n
X =Lmed + ( −c )
f med 2
Where :
Lmed =lower class boundary of the median class .
w = the size of the median class
n = total number of observations.
c = the cumulative frequency (less than type) preceeding the median class .
f med = thefrequency of the median class .

Remark:
The median class is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency (less than type) greater than or
n
equal to 2 .
Example: Find the median of the following distribution.

Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3
 Solutions:
 First find the less than cumulative frequency.
 Identify the median class.
 Find median using formula.

Class Frequency Cumu.Freq(less

than type)
40-44 7 7
45-49 10 17
50-54 22 39
55-59 15 54
60-64 12 66
65-69 6 72
70-74 3 75

n 75
= =37 . 5
2 2
39 is the first cumulative frequency to be greater than or equal to 37 . 5
⇒ 50−54 is the median class .

Lmed =49 .5, w =5

n = 75 , c = 17 , f med = 22

~ w n
⇒ X =Lmed + ( −c )
f med 2
5
=49 .5+ (37 .5−17 )
22
=54 . 16

Merits and Demerits of Median

Merits:
 Median is a positional average.
 Not influenced by extreme observations.
 Can be calculated in the case of open end intervals.
 Median can be located even if the data are incomplete.

Demerits:
 It is not a good representative of data if the number of items is small.
 It is not applicable for further algebraic treatment.
 It is susceptible to sampling fluctuations.
Quantiles
Quartiles:
- Quartiles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to four equal parts.
- Q1 is a value which has 25% items which are less than or equal to it. Similarly Q 2 has
50%items with value less than or equal to it and Q 3 has 75% items whose values are less than
or equal to it.
iN
- To find Qi (i=1, 2, 3) we count 4 of the classes beginning from the lowest class.
- For grouped data: we have the following formula
w iN
Q =LQ + ( −c ) , i=1 , 2 ,3
i i fQ 4
i

Where :
LQ =lower class boundary of the quartile class .
i

w = the size of the quartile class

N = total number of observations .
c = the cumulative frequency (less than type) preceeding the quartile class .
f Q = thefrequency of the quartile class .
i

Remark:
The quartile class (class containing Q i ) is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency (less
iN
than type) greater than or equal to 4 .
Deciles:
- Deciles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to ten equal parts.
iN
- To find Di (i=1, 2,..9) we count 10 of the classes beginning from the lowest class.

- For grouped data: we have the following formula

 w iN
Di =LD + ( −c) , i=1 ,2 , .. . , 9
i f D 10
i

Where :
L D =lower class boundary of the decile class .
i

w = the size of the decileclass

N = total number of observations .
c = the cumulative frequency (less than type) preceeding the decile class .
f Di = thefrequency of the decile class .

Remark:
The deciles class (class containing Di) is the class with the smallest cumulative frequency (less than
iN
type) greater than or equal to10 .

Percentiles:
- Percentiles are measures that divide the frequency distribution in to hundred equal parts.
- The values of the variables corresponding to these divisions are denoted P 1, P2,.. P99 often
called the first, the second,…, the ninety-ninth percentile respectively.
iN
- To find Pi (i=1, 2,..99) we count 100 of the classes beginning from the lowest class.

- For grouped data: we have the following formula

w iN
Pi=L P + ( −c) ,i=1,2,...,99
f P 100 i
i

Where:
LP =lower class boundary of the percentile class.
i

w = the size of the percentile class

N = total number of observations .
c = the cumulative frequency (less than type) preceeding the percentile class.
f P = thefrequency of the percentile class.
i

Remark:
 The percentile class (class containing Pi) is the class with the small cumulative frequency
iN
(less than type) greater than or equal to100 .
Example: Considering the following distribution

Calculate:
a) All quartiles.
b) The 7th decile.
c) The 90th percentile.

Values Frequency
140- 150 17
150- 160 29
160- 170 42
170- 180 72
180- 190 84
190- 200 107
200- 210 49
210- 220 34
220- 230 31
230- 240 16
240- 250 12

Solutions:
 First find the less than cumulative frequency.
 Use the formula to calculate the required quantile.
Values Frequency Cum.Freq(less
than type)
140- 150 17 17
150- 160 29 46
160- 170 42 88
170- 180 72 160
180- 190 84 244
190- 200 107 351
200- 210 49 400
210- 220 34 434
220- 230 31 465
230- 240 16 481
240- 250 12 493

a) Quartiles:
i. Q1
- determine the class containing the first quartile.
 N
=123. 25
4
⇒ 170−180 is the class containing the first quartile.

w N
⇒Q 1=LQ + ( −c )
1 fQ 4
1

10
LQ =170 , w = 10 =170+ (123 . 25−88 )
1 72
N = 493 , c = 88 , f Q = 72 =174 . 90
1

ii. Q2
- determine the class containing the second quartile.
2∗N
=246 . 5
4
⇒ 190−200 is the class containing the sec ond quartile.
LQ =190 , w = 10
2

N = 493 , c = 244 , f Q = 107

2

w 2∗N
⇒Q 2=LQ + ( −c )
2 f Q2 4
10
=170+ (246 . 5−244 )
72
=190 . 23

iii. Q3
- determine the class containing the third quartile.
3∗N
=369 . 75
4
⇒ 200−210 is the class containing the third quartile.

LQ =200 , w = 10
3

N = 493 , c = 351 , f Q = 49
3
b) D7
- determine the class containing the 7th decile.
7∗N
=345. 1
10
⇒ 190−200 is the class containing the seventh decile .
L D =190 , w = 10
7

N = 493 , c = 244 , f D = 107

7

w 7∗N
⇒ D 7 =LD + ( −c )
7 f D7 10
10
=190+ (345 . 1−244 )
107
=199 . 45

c) P90
- determine the class containing the 90th percentile.
90∗N
=443 . 7
100
⇒ 220−230 is the class containing the 90th percentile .
L P =220 , w = 10
90

N = 493 , c = 434 , f P = 31
90

w 90∗N
⇒ P 90 =L P + ( −c )
90 f P90 100
10
=220+ ( 443 .7−434 )
31
=223 . 13
 CHAPTER 4
4. Measures of Dispersion (Variation)

 Dispersion or variation is the scatter or spread of items of a distribution

Types of Measures of Dispersion
1) Range and relative range
2) Quartile deviation and coefficient of Quartile deviation
3) Mean deviation and coefficient of Mean deviation
4) Standard deviation and coefficient of variation.

The Range (R)

The range is the largest score minus the smallest score.

It is a quick and dirty measure of variability.

R=L−S , L=larg est observation

Range is greatly affected by extreme scores. S=smallest observation
The following two distributions have the same range, 13, yet appear to differ greatly in the
amount of variability.

Distribution 1: 32 35 36 36 37 38 40 42 42 43 43 45
Distribution 2: 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 35 45

For this reason, among others, the range is not the most important measure of variability.

Range for grouped data:

If data are given in the shape of continuous frequency distribution, the range is computed as:
R=UCLk −LCL1 , UCL k is upperclass lim it of the last class.
UCL1 is lower class lim it of the first class .
Merits and Demerits of range
Merits:
 It is rigidly defined.
 It is easy to calculate and simple to understand.
Demerits:
 It is not based on all observation.
 It can not be computed in the case of open end distribution.
 It is very sensitive to the size of the sample.
Relative Range (RR)
It is also some times called coefficient of range and given by:
 L−S R
RR= =
L+S L+S
Example:
1. Find the relative range of the above two distribution. (Exercise!)
2. If the range and relative range of a series are 4 and 0.25 respectively. Then what is the value
of: a) Smallest observation b) Largest observation
Solution: (2)
R=4 ⇒ L−S=4 _________________ (1)
RR=0.25⇒ L+S=16_____________ (2)
Solving (1) and(2) at the same time ,one can obtain the following value
L=10 and S=6

The Quartile Deviation (Semi-inter quartile range), Q.D

The inter quartile range is the difference between the third and the first quartiles of a set of
items and semi-inter quartile range is half of the inter quartile range.
Q3 −Q1
Q. D=
2
Coefficient of Quartile Deviation (C.Q.D)

( Q 3 −Q 1 / 2 2∗Q . D Q 3 −Q 1
C . Q . D= = =
( Q 3 +Q 1 )/ 2 Q 3 +Q 1 Q 3 +Q 1

 It gives the average amount by which the two quartiles differ from the median.

Example: Compute Q.D and its coefficient for the following distribution.

Values Freq. Solutions:

140- 150 17
150- 160 29 In the previous chapter we have obtained the values of
160- 170 42 all quartiles as:
170- 180 72 Q1= 174.90, Q2= 190.23, Q3=203.83
180- 190 84
190- 200 107 Q3 −Q1 203 . 83−174 . 90
200- 210 49 ⇒ Q. D= = =14 . 47
210- 220 34 2 2
220- 230 31 2∗Q. D 2∗14 . 47
C .Q . D= = =0 . 076
230- 240 16 Q3 +Q1 203. 83+174 .90
240- 250 12
Remark: Q.D or C.Q.D includes only the middle 50% of the observation.

The Mean Deviation (M.D):

 The mean deviation of a set of items is defined as the arithmetic mean of the values of the
absolute deviations from a given average.
Depending up on the type of averages used we have different mean deviations.

a) Mean Deviation about the mean

 Denoted by M.D( X̄ ) and given by

n
∑ |X i − X̄|
M . D ( X̄ )=i =1
n
 For the case of frequency distribution it is given as:

k
∑ f i|X i− X̄|
M . D ( X̄ )=i =1
n

Steps to calculate M.D ( X̄ ):

1. Find the arithmetic mean, X̄
2. Find the deviations of each reading from X̄ .
3. Find the arithmetic mean of the deviations, ignoring sign.

b) Mean Deviation about the median.

~
 Denoted by M.D( X ) and given by

n
∑ |X i −~
X|
M . D(~
X )=i =1
n
 For the case of frequency distribution it is given as:

k
∑ f i|X i−~
X|
M . D(~
X )=i =1
n

c) Mean Deviation about the mode.


^
Denoted by M.D( X ) and given by
n
∑|X i − X|
^
M . D ( X^ )=
i =1
n
  For the case of frequency distribution it is given as:

k
∑ f i|X i− X|
^
^ )=i =1
M . D( X
n
Examples:
1. The following are the number of visit made by ten mothers to the local doctor’s surgery. 8, 6, 5,
5, 7, 4, 5, 9, 7, 4
Find mean deviation about mean, median and mode.
Solutions:
First calculate the three averages
X̄=6 , ~ ^
X =5. 5 , X=5
Then take the deviations of each observation from these averages.
Xi 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 total
|X −6|i
2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 14

|X i−5 . 5| 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 14

|X i−5| 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 14

10
∑ |X i −6 )|
14
⇒ M . D ( X̄ )=i=1 = =1. 4
10 10
10
∑ |X i −5. 5|
~ i =1 14
M . D ( X )= = =1 . 4
10 10
10
∑ |X i −5)|
^ )=i =1 14
M . D( X = =1 . 4
10 10

Coefficient of Mean Deviation (C.M.D)

M .D
C . M . D=
Average about which deviations are taken
 M . D( X̄ )
⇒C . M . D( X̄ )=
X̄
~
~ M . D( X )
C . M . D ( X )= ~
X
^ M . D( X^ )
C . M . D ( X )=
X^
Example: calculate the C.M.D about the mean, median and mode for the data in example 1
above.

Solutions:
M .D
C . M . D=
Average about which deviations are taken
~
M . D( X̄ ) 1 . 4 ~ M . D( X ) 1. 4
⇒C . M . D( X̄ )= = =0 .233 C . M . D ( X )= ~ = =0 .255
X̄ 6 X 5 .5
M . D( X^ ) 1. 4
C . M . D ( X^ )= = =0 .28
^X 5
Exercise: Identify the merits and demerits of Mean Deviation

The Variance
1
Population Varince=σ 2=
N
∑ ( X i −μ)2 , i=1 , 2 ,. .. . . N

For the case of frequency distribution it is expressed as:

1
Population Varince=σ 2=
N ∑ f i ( X i−μ )2 , i=1 ,2 , .. . .. k

1
Sample Varince= S 2=
n−1 ∑ ( X i− X̄ )2 , i=1 , 2, . .. .. , n

For the case of frequency distribution it is expressed as:

1
Sample Varince= S 2=
n−1
∑ f i ( X i − X̄ )2 , i=1, 2 ,. . .. . k

We usually use the following short cut formula.

 n
∑ X i2 −n X̄ 2
S2 = i=1 , for raw data .
n−1
k
∑ f i X i2 −n X̄ 2
S 2= i =1 , for frequency distribution.
n−1

Standard Deviation

Population stan dard deviation=σ =√ σ 2

Sample stan dard deviation=s= √ S 2
Examples: Find the variance and standard deviation of the following sample data
1. 5, 17, 12, 10.
2. The data is given in the form of frequency distribution.
Class Frequency
40-44 7
45-49 10
50-54 22
55-59 15
60-64 12
65-69 6
70-74 3

Solutions:
1. X̄ =11

Xi 5 10 12 17 Total
(Xi- X̄ ) 2 36 1 1 36 74

n
∑ ( X i − X̄ )2
74
⇒ S 2= i=1 = =24 . 67 .
n−1 3
⇒ S=√ S =√ 24 .67=4 . 97 .
2

2. X̄ =55
 Xi(C.M) 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 Total
fi(Xi- X̄ ) 2 1183 640 198 60 588 864 867 4400

n
∑ f i ( X i− X̄ )2
4400
⇒ S 2= i=1 = =59 . 46 .
n−1 74
⇒ S=√ S 2 =√ 59 . 46=7 . 71.
Special properties of Standard deviations

1. √ n−1 √
∑ ( X i − X̄ )2 < ∑ ( X i −A )2
n−1
, A≠ X̄

2. If the standard deviation of

X 1 , X 2 , .. . .. X n is S , then the standard deviation of
a)
X 1 +k , X 2 + k , . . .. . X n + k will also be S

b)
kX 1 , kX 2 , .....kX n would be |k| S
c)
a+kX 1 , a+kX 2 , .. .. . a+kX n would be|k| S
Examples:
1. The mean and standard deviation of n Tetracycline Capsules 1
X , X , .. . .. X
2 n are known
to be 12 gm and 3 gm respectively. New set of capsules of another drug are obtained by the
linear transformation Yi = 2Xi – 0.5 ( i = 1, 2, …, n ) then what will be the standard deviation
of the new set of capsules.
Solutions:

1. Using c) above the new standard deviation =

|k|S=2∗3=6
Coefficient of Variation (C.V)

 Is defined as the ratio of standard deviation to the mean usually expressed as percents.
S
C . V = ∗100
X̄
 The distribution having less C.V is said to be less variable or more consistent.

Standard Scores (Z-scores)

 X− X̄
Z= , for sample
S
 Z gives the number of standard deviation a particular observation lie above or below
the mean.
 It is used to compare two observations coming from different groups.

Examples:
1. Two groups of people were trained to perform a certain task and tested to find out which
group is faster to learn the task. For the two groups the following information was given:
Value Group one Group two

Mean 10.4 min 11.9 min

Stan.dev. 1.2 min 1.3 min

Relatively speaking:
a) Which group is more consistent in its performance
b) Suppose a person A from group one take 9.2 minutes while person B
from Group two take 9.3 minutes, who was faster in performing the
task? Why?
Solutions:

a) Use coefficient of variation.

S1 1 .2
C . V 1= ∗100= ∗100=11. 54 %
X̄ 1 10 . 4
S 1 .3
C . V 2 = 2 ∗100= ∗100=10 . 92%
X̄ 2 11. 9
Since C.V2 < C.V1, group 2 is more consistent.

b) Calculate the standard score of A and B

X A− X̄ 1 9. 2−10 . 4
Z A= = =−1
S1 1.2
X − X̄ 2 9 .3−11. 9
Z B= B = =−2
S2 1. 3
Child B is faster because the time taken by child B is two standard deviations shorter
than the average time taken by group 2, while the time taken by child A is only one
standard deviation shorter than the average time taken by group 1.
Moments
If X is a variable that assume the values X1, X2,…..,Xn then

1. The rth moment is defined as:

 X r + X r +. ..+ X r
r 1 2 n
X̄ =
n
n
∑ Xir
=i=1
n
- For the case of frequency distribution this is expressed as:
k
∑ f i Xir
X̄ r = i=1
n
- If r =1 , it is the simple arithmetic mean, this is called the first moment.
2. The rth moment about the mean ( the rth central moment)

- Denoted by Mr and defined as:

n n
∑ ( X i− X̄ ) r
( n−1) i =1
∑ ( X i− X̄ )r
i =1
Mr = =
n n n−1
- For the case of frequency distribution this is expressed as:
k
∑ f i ( X i − X̄ )r
M r = i =1
n
- If r =2 , it is population variance, this is called the second central moment. If we assume
n−1≈n , it is also the sample variance.

3. The rth moment about any number A is defined as:

M
- Denoted by r ' and
n n
∑ ( X i− A )r ( n−1) i =1
∑ ( X i− A )r
M ' = i =1 =
r n n n−1
- For the case of frequency distribution this is expressed as:
k
∑ f i ( X i −A )r
M ' = i =1
r n
Example:
1. Find the first two moments for the following set of numbers 2, 3, 7
2. Find the first three central moments of the numbers in problem 1
3. Find the third moment about the number 3 of the numbers in problem 1.

Solutions:
1. Use the rth moment formula.
n
∑ Xir
X̄ r =i =1
n
2+ 3+7
⇒ X̄ 1 = =4= X̄
3
2 2 2
2 2 +3 +7
X̄ = =20 . 67
3
2. Use the rth central moment formula.
n
∑ ( X i − X̄ )r
i=1
Mr =
n
( 2−4 )+( 3−4 )+( 7−4 )
⇒ M 1= =0
3
( 2−4 )2 +( 3−4 )2 +(7−4 )2
M 2= =4 . 67
3
( 2−4 )3 +( 3−4 )3 +( 7−4 )3
M 3= =6
3
3. Use the rth moment about A.

n
∑ ( X i − A )r
i=1
Mr =
n
( 2−3 )3 +( 3−3 )3 +( 7−3 )3
⇒ M '= =21
3 3
Skewness
- Skewness is the degree of asymmetry or departure from symmetry of a distribution.
- Is not symmetrical.
- Is concerned with the shape of the curve not size.
 Longer tail to the right of the central maximum than to the left- skewed to the right-
positive skewness. Mode, median and mean. The majority of the observations have a
value below an average.
- Longer tail to the left of the central maximum than to the right- skewed to the left- negative
skewness. Mean, median and mode. The majority of the observations have a value above an
average.
- Mean−Mode=3∗( Mean−Median )
- Denoted by α 3
- There are various measures of skewness.
Mean−Mode X̄− X^
α 3= =
S tan dard deviation S
( Q3 −Q 2 )−( Q2 −Q 1 ) Q 3 +Q1 −2Q 2
α 3= =
Q3 −Q 1 Q 3 −Q 1
M3 M3 M3
α 3= = = , Where σ is the population s tan dard deviation .
M ( σ 2 )3/ 2 σ 3
23 /2 The
shape of the curve is determined by the value of
α3

If α 3 >0 then the distribution is positively skewed .

If α 3 =0 then the distribution is symmetric .

If α 3 <0 then the distribution is negatively skewed .
Examples:
1. Suppose the mean, the mode, and the standard deviation of a certain distribution are 32,
30.5 and 10 respectively. What is the shape of the curve representing the distribution?

Solutions:

Mean−Mode 32−30 . 5
α 3= = =0. 15
S tan dard deviation 10
α 3 >0 ⇒ The distribution is positively skewed .
2. In a frequency distribution, the coefficient of skewness based on the quartiles is given to
be 0.5. If the sum of the upper and lower quartile is 28 and the median is 11, find the
values of the upper and lower quartiles.

Solutions:

α 3=0. 5 , ~
X =Q2=11
Given:
Q1 +Q3 =28 . .. .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. ..(∗) Q ,
Required: 1
Q3

(Q −Q )−(Q2−Q1 ) Q3 +Q1 −2 Q2
α 3= 3 2 = =0 .5
Q3 −Q1 Q3 −Q1
Substituting the given values , one can obtain the following
Q3 −Q1=12 . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . ..(** )
Solving (∗) and (**) at the same time we obtain the following values
Q1 =8 and Q3 =20
 Kurtosis
Kurtosis is the degree of peakdness of a distribution,
A distribution having relatively high peak is called leptokurtic.
If a curve representing a distribution is flat topped, it is called platykurtic.
The normal distribution which is not very high peaked or flat topped is called mesokurtic.
 Denoted by
α4 and given by
M4 M4
α 4= =
M σ4
22
Where : M 4 is the fourth moment about the mean.
M 2 is the sec ond moment about the mean .
σ is the population s tan dard deviation.
α
The peakdness depends on the value of 4 .

If α 4 >3 then the curve is leptokurtic.

If α 4 =3 then the curve is mesokurtic .

If α 4 <3 then the curve is platykurtic.

Examples:

1. If the first four central moments of a distribution are:

M 1 =0 , M 2 =16 , M 3 =−60 , M 4 =162
a) Compute a measure of skewness
b) Compute a measure of kurtosis and give your interpretation.
Solutions:
M3 −60
α 3= = 3/2 =−0 . 94<0
M 3/2 16
2

a) ⇒T he distribution is negatively skewed .

M4 162
α 4= = 2
=0 . 6 <3
M 16
22
b) ⇒ The curve is platykurtic .

CHAPTER 5
5. ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY
  Probability is the chance of an outcome of an experiment. It is the measure of how likely
an outcome is to occur.
Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
Example: .What is the sample space for the following experiment
a) Toss a die one time.
b) Toss a coin two times.
c) A light bulb is manufactured. It is tested for its life length by time.
Solution
a) S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) S={(HH),(HT),(TH),(TT)}
c) S={t /t≥0}
 Sample space can be
 Countable ( finite or infinite)
 Uncountable.
Counting Rules
In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several rules of counting.
- The addition rule
- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule
Addition rule
Example: A student goes to the nearest snack to have a breakfast. He can take tea, coffee, or milk
with bread, cake and sandwich. How many possibilities does he have?
Solutions:
Tea
Bread
Cake
Sandwich
Coeffee
Bread
Cake
Milk Sandwich

Bread
Cake

Sandwich
 There are nine possibilities.
The Multiplication Rule:
If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in n1 ways, the second can be made in n2
ways, …, the kth can be made in nk ways, then the whole choice can be made in
(n1∗n 2∗. . .. .. ..∗n k ) ways.
Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in 4 digit identification card. How many different
cards are possible if a) Repetitions are permitted.
b) Repetitions are not permitted.
Solutions
a)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 5 5 5

⇒5∗5∗5∗5=625 different cards are possible.

b)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 4 3 2

⇒5∗4∗3∗2=120 different cards are possible.

Permutation
An arrangement of n objects in a specified order.
Permutation Rules:
1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together is n!
Where n !=n∗(n−1)∗(n−2)∗.. .. .∗3∗2∗1
2. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r objects at a time is called the
permutation of n objects taken r objects at a time. It is written as n
Pr and the formula is
n!
=
n Pr ( n−r )!
3. The number of permutations of n objects in which k1 are alike k2 are alike etc is
n!
=
k 1 !* k 2∗.. .∗k n
Example:
1. Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?
b) How many permutations are there if two letters are used at a time?
2. How many different permutations can be made from the letters in the word
“CORRECTION”?
Solutions: 1. a)
Here n=4 , there are four disnict object
⇒ There are 4 !=24 permutations .
Here n=4 , r=2
4! 24
⇒ There are 4 P2 = = =12 permutations .
b) ( 4−2)! 2

2.
 Here n=10
Of which 2 are C , 2 are O , 2 are R , 1 E, 1T , 1 I , 1 N
⇒ K 1=2, k 2=2, k 3=2, k 4=k 5=k 6=k 7=1
U sin g the 3rd rule of permutation , there are
10!
=453600 permutations.
2!*2!*2!*1!*1!*1!*1!
Combination
A selection of objects with out regard to order is called combination.
Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation and combination for selecting two
letters.
Solutions:
Permutation Combination
AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC
Note that in permutation AB is different from BA. But in combination AB is the same as BA.
Combination Rule

The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted by

n C r or ()
n
r and
is given by the formula:

()n
=
n!
r (n−r )!* r!
Examples:
1. In how many ways a committee of 5 people is chosen out of 9 people?
Solutions:
n=9 , r=5

()
n n!
= =
9!
r (n−r)!*r! 4!*5!
=126 ways
Solutions: n=15 of which 2 are defective and 13 are non-defective; and r=3
a) If there is no restriction select three clocks from 15 clocks and this can be done in :
n=15 , r=3

()
n n!
= =
15 !
r (n−r)!*r! 12 !*3!
=455 ways
Approaches to measuring Probability
There are four different conceptual approaches to the study of probability theory. These are:
  The classical approach.
 The frequentist approach.
 The axiomatic approach.
 The subjective approach.
The classical approach
This approach is used when:
- All outcomes are equally likely.
- Total number of outcome is finite, say N.
Definition: If a random experiment with N equally likely outcomes is conducted and out of these
NA outcomes are favorable to the event A, then the probability that event A occur denoted
P( A ) is defined as:

N A No . of outcomes favourable to A n( A )
P( A )= = =
N Total number of outcomes n (S )
Examples:

1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting

a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solutions:
First identify the sample space, say S
S={ 1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 }
⇒N =n( S)=6
a) Let A be the event of number 4 c) Let A be the event of even numbers
A={ 4 } A={ 2 , 4 , 6 }
⇒ N A =n ( A )=1 ⇒ N A =n ( A )=3
n( A ) n( A )
P( A )= =1/6 P( A )= =3 /6=0 . 5
n( S ) n( S )
b) Let A be the event of odd numbers d) Let A be the event of number 8
A={ 1 ,3 , 5 } A={}
⇒ N A =n ( A )=3 ⇒ N A =n ( A )=0
n( A ) n( A )
P( A )= =3 /6=0 . 5 P( A )= =0 /6=0
n( S ) n( S )
The Frequentist Approach
This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging to an event.
 NA
P( A )= lim
N →∞ N
Example: If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced are defective. What is the
probability of a newly produced bulb to be defective?

Solution: Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.
N A 60
P( A )= lim = =0 . 0006
N →∞ N 100 , 000
Axiomatic Approach:

Let E be a random experiment

S be a sample space associated with E.
Event A a real number called the probability of A satisfies the following properties called axioms of
probability or postulates of probability.
1. P( A )≥0
2. P( S )=1 , S is the sure event .
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability that one or the other occur equals

the sum of the two probabilities. i.e. P( A∪ B)=P ( A )+P( B)

4. If A and B are independent events, the probability that both will occur is the product of the
two probabilities. i.e. P(A ∩ B) = P(A)*P(B)

5. P( A' )=1−P( A )
6. 0≤P( A )≤1
7. P(ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.
In general p( A∪B )= p( A )+ p( B)−p ( A∩B )
Conditional probability and Independency
Conditional Events: If the occurrence of one event has an effect on the next occurrence of the
other event then the two events are conditional or dependant events.
Example: Suppose we have two red and three white balls in a bag
1. Draw a ball with replacement
Since the first drawn ball is replaced for a second draw it doesn’t affect the second draw.
For this reason A and B are independent. Then if we let
2
p( A )=
A= the event that the first draw is red 5
2
p( B)=
B= the event that the second draw is red  5
2. Draw a ball with out replacement
 This is conditional b/c the first drawn ball is not to be replaced for a second draw
in that it does affect the second draw. If we let
2
p( A )=
A= the event that the first draw is red 5
B= the event that the second draw is red  p( B)=?
Let B= the event that the second draw is red given that the first draw is red P(B) = 1/4
Conditional probability of an event
The conditional probability of an event A given that B has already occurred, denoted by
p( A /B ) is
p ( A∩B )
, p ( B )≠0
p( A /B ) = p ( B )
Remark: (1) p( A' /B )=1− p( A /B )
(2) p( B' / A )=1− p( B/ A )
Examples
1. For a student enrolling at freshman at certain university the probability is 0.25 that he/she
will get scholarship and 0.75 that he/she will graduate. If the probability is 0.2 that he/she
will get scholarship and will also graduate. What is the probability that a student who get
a scholarship graduate?

Solution: Let A= the event that a student will get a scholarship

B= the event that a student will graduate
given p ( A )=0 .25 , p( B )=0 .75 , p ( A∩B )=0 . 20
Re quired p ( B/ A )
p ( A∩B ) 0 . 20
p ( B / A )= = =0. 80
p ( A) 0 . 25
Note: for any two events A and B the following relation holds.
p ( B )= p ( B / A ) . p ( A ) + p ( B / A ) . p ( A )
' '

Probability of Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if and only if p ( A∩B ) =p ( A ) . p ( B )
Here p ( A / B )= p ( A ) , P ( B / A )= p ( B )
Example; A box contains four black and six white balls. What is the probability of getting two
black balls in drawing one after the other under the following conditions?
a. The first ball drawn is not replaced
b. The first ball drawn is replaced
Solution; Let A= first drawn ball is black
B= second drawn is black
 Required p ( A∩B )
a. p ( A∩B ) =p ( B/ A ) . p ( A )=( 3/9 ) ( 4 /10 )=2/15
b. p ( A∩B ) =p ( A ) . p ( B )=( 4 /10 ) ( 4 /10 )=4 /25

CHAPTER 6
RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
A random variable is a numerical description of the outcomes of the experiment or a numerical valued
function defined on sample space.
A random variable takes a possible outcome and assigns a number to it.
Example: Flip a coin three times, let X be the number of heads in three tosses.
⇒ S={ ( HHH ) , ( HHT ) , ( HTH ) , ( HTT ) , (THH ) , (THT ) , ( TTH ) , (TTT ) }
⇒ X ( HHH ) =3 ,
X ( HHT )= X ( HTH )=X ( THH )=2 ,
X ( HTT ) =X ( THT )=X ( TTH )=1
X ( TTT )=0
X = {0, 1, 2, 3}
Random variables are of two types:
1. Discrete random variable: are variables which can assume only a specific number of values.
They have values that can be counted
Examples:
 Toss coin n times and count the number of heads.
 Number of children in a family.
 Number of car accidents per week.
2. Continuous random variable: are variables that can assume all values between any two give
values.
Examples:
 Height of students at certain college.
 Mark of a student.
 Life time of light bulbs.
Probability Distribution
Definition: a probability distribution consists of value that a random variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values.
 Example: Consider the experiment of tossing a coin three times. Let X is the number of heads.
Construct the probability distribution of X.
Solution:
 Calculate the probability of each possible distinct value of X and express X in the form of
frequency distribution.

X =x 0 1 2 3

P ( X=x ) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

 Probability distribution is denoted by P for discrete and by f for continuous random variable.
Properties of Probability Distribution:
1.

P( x)≥0 , if X is discrete .
f ( x)≥0 , if X is continuous.
2.

∑ P ( X =x ) =1 , if X is discrete .
x

∫ f ( x ) dx =1 , if is continuous .
x

Note:
1. If X is a continuous random variable then
b
P( a< X <b )=∫ f ( x ) dx
a

2. Probability of a fixed value of a continuous random variable is zero.

⇒ P ( a< X < b )=P( a≤X <b )=P ( a< X ≤b )=P( a≤X ≤b )

3. If X is discrete random variable then
 b−1
P ( a< X < b )= ∑ P( x )
x =a+1
b−1
P ( a≤ X <b )= ∑ p( x )
x=a
b
P ( a< X ≤b )= ∑ P (x )
x=a+1
b
P( a≤X ≤b )= ∑ P ( x )
x =a

4. Probability means area for continuous random variable.

Introduction to expectation
Definition:
1. Let a discrete random variable X assume the values X 1, X2, ….,Xn with the probabilities
P(X1), P(X2), ….,P(Xn) respectively. Then the expected value of X, denoted as E(X) is
defined as:
E( X )= X 1 P( X 1 )+ X 2 P( X 2 )+. . ..+ X n P( X n )
n
=∑ X i P( X i )
i=1

2. Let X be a continuous random variable assuming the values in the interval (a, b) such that
b b
∫ f ( x )dx=1 E( X )=∫ x f ( x )dx
a a
,then
Examples:
1. What is the expected value of a random variable X obtained by tossing a coin three times
where X is the number of heads?
Solution:
First construct the probability distribution of X

X =x 0 1 2 3

P ( X=x ) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

⇒ E ( X )=X 1 P( X 1 )+ X 2 P( X 2 )+.. . .+ X n P( X n )
= 0∗1/8+1∗3 /8+.. . ..+2∗1/8
=1. 5
 2. Suppose a charity organization is mailing printed return-address stickers to over one
million homes in Ethiopia. Each recipient is asked to donate either $1, $2, $5, $10, $15,
or $20. Based on past experience, the amount a person donates is believed to follow the
following probability distribution:

X =x $1 $2 $5 $10 $15 $20

P ( X=x ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.15 0.05

What is expected that an

average donor to contribute?

Solution:

X =x $1 $2 $5 $10 $15 $20 Total

P ( X=x ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.15 0.05 1

xP( X=x ) 0.1 0.4 1.5 2 2.25 1 7.25

6
⇒ E ( X ) =∑ x i P( X=x i ) =$ 7 .25
i=1

Mean and Variance of a random variable

Let X is given random variable.
1. The expected value of X is its mean

⇒ Mean of X =E( X )
2. The variance of X is given by:

Variance of X=var( X )=E( X 2 )−[ E( X )]2

Where:
 n
E( X )=∑ x 2 P( X =x i ) , if X is discrete
2

i =1 i

=∫ x f ( x ) dx ,
2
if X is continuous .
x

Examples:
1. Find the mean and the variance of a random variable X in example 2 above.
Solution:

X =x $1 $2 $5 $10 $15 $20 Total

P ( X=x ) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.15 0.05 1

xP( X=x ) 0.1 0.4 1.5 2 2.25 1 7.25

0.1 0.8 7.5 20 33.75 20 82.15

x 2 P( X =x )

⇒ E( X )=7 . 25
Var ( X )=E ( X 2 )−[ E( X )]2 =82 .15−7 .25 2=29 . 59
Let X and Y are random variables and k is a constant.

E( k )=k
RULE 1:
Var (k )=0
RULE 2:

E( kX )=kE( X )
RULE 3:

Var(kX )=k 2 Var( X )

RULE 4:

E( X +Y )=E ( X )+ E(Y )
RULE 5:
Common Discrete Probability Distributions
1. Binomial Distribution
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
 2. Each trial has only one of the two possible mutually exclusive outcomes, success or a
failure.
3. The probability of each outcome does not change from trial to trial, and
4. The trials are independent, thus we must sample with replacement.
Examples of binomial experiments
 Tossing a coin 20 times to see how many tails occur.
 Asking 200 people if they watch BBC news.
 Registering a newly produced product as defective or non defective.
 Rolling a die to see if a 5 appears.
Definition: The outcomes of the binomial experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these
outcomes are called Binomial Distribution.

Let P=the probability of success

q=1− p=the probability of failure on any given trial
x n
Then the probability of getting successes in trials becomes:

P( X =x )= ()
n x n− x
x
p q , x =0 ,1 , 2 ,. . .. , n

X ~ Bin (n , p )
And this is some times written as:
Examples:
1. What is the probability of getting three heads by tossing a fair coin four times?
Solution: Let X be the number of heads in tossing a fair coin four times
X ~ Bin (n=4 , p=0 .50 )
 ()
⇒ P ( X=x)= n p x q n− x , x=0 , 1, 2 , 3 , 4
x

()
= 4 0 . 5x 0 . 54− x
x

()
= 4 0 . 54
x

()
⇒ P ( X=3 )= 4 0 .5 4 =0 . 25
3
Remark: If X is a binomial random variable with parameters n and p then

E( X )=np Var ( X )=npq

,
2. Poisson Distribution
A random variable X is said to have a Poisson distribution if its probability distribution is given
by:

λ x e−λ
P( X =x )= , x=0 ,1 , 2 ,. .. . ..
x!
Where λ=the average number .
Depend only on the average number of occurrences per unit time of space.
The Poisson distribution is used as a distribution of rare events.
Example: Arrivals, Accidents, Number of misprints, Natural disasters like earth quake
Example: If 1.6 accidents can be expected an intersection on any given day, what is the
probability that there will be 3 accidents on any given day?
λ=1 .6
Solution: Let X =the number of accidents,

1 . 6 x e−1 . 6
X = poisson ( 1 .6 ) ⇒ p ( X=x )=
x!
3 −1. 6
1 .6 e
p ( X=3 )= =0 . 1380
3!
λ
If X is a Poisson random variable with parameter then
 E( X )= λ Var ( X )=λ
,

Common Continuous Probability Distributions

1. Normal Distribution
A random variable X is said to have a normal distribution if its probability density function is

f ( x )=
1 −
1 x −μ 2
2 σ
e
( ), −∞< x <∞ , −∞< μ<∞ , σ > 0
σ √2 π
2
Where μ=E( X ), σ =Variance( X )
2
μ and σ are the Parameters of the Normal Distribution .
Properties of Normal Distribution:
1. It is bell shaped and is symmetrical about its mean and it is mesokurtic.
1
f ( x )=
σ √2 π
2. Is given by
3. It is asymptotic to the axis, i.e., it extends indefinitely in either direction from the mean.
4. It is a continuous distribution.
5. It is a family of curves,
∞
∫
−∞
f ( x)dx=1
6. Total area under the curve sums to 1.
7. It is unimodal.

Mean=Median=mod e=μ
8.
9. The probability that a random variable will have a value between any two points is equal to the
area under the curve between those points.
 Standard normal distribution was derived by using the transformation
1 2
X−μ 1 − z
Z= ⇒ f ( z )= e 2
σ √2 π
Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution:
- Same as a normal distribution, but mean is zero, variance is one, standard Deviation is one
- Areas under the standard normal distribution curve have been tabulated in various ways. The most
Z=0 and a positive value of Z .
common ones are the areas between
μ and s tan dard deviation σ
- Given normal distributed random variable X with mean
a−μ X−μ b−μ
P(a< X <b )=P( < < )
σ σ σ
a−μ b−μ
P(a< X <b )=P( <Z< )
⇒ σ σ
Note:

P(a< X <b )=P( a≤ X <b )

=P (a< X ≤b )
=P (a≤ X≤b )
Examples:
1. Find the area under the standard normal distribution which lies

Z=0 and Z=0. 96

a) Between
Solution:

Area=P(0< Z< 0 . 96)=0 .3315

Z=−1 . 45 and Z=0

b) Between
Solution:

Area=P(−1 . 45<Z <0 )

=P (0<Z <1 . 45 )
=0. 4265
Z=−0 . 35
c) To the right of
Solution:
Area=P(Z >−0. 35 )
=P (−0 . 35<Z<0)+P( Z >0 )
=P (0<Z <0. 35 )+P (Z >0 )
=0. 1368+0 . 50=0 . 6368