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ix
x Preface
almost half of the text, and along with Sects. 2.1–2.3 they could be the basis for a
special topics course in design.
This book does not by any means cover all topics of interest in linear models and
statistical design. My intention is to give the reader enough background to read more
advanced literature intelligently and critically. A major goal of the text is to provide
complete treatments of topics covered. Numerous references to the literature are
provided for students interested in pursuing a topic further.
A particular concern of mine in this field is terminology. I have addressed this
by (a) using common, consistent mathematical terminology and (b) explaining, in
numerous remarks and in passages such as Sects. 1.2.1 and 6.7, the terminology
that one may find in the literature. Hopefully, this book gives the student a helpful
lexicon.
Aside from its unusual combination of topics, this text presents the material in a
manner that differs in essential ways from other expositions. I want to flag some of
these differences now.
• Recall that a linear model is defined by an equation
E(Y) = Xβ,
1 We view vectors as columns, and denotes transpose, so c β is the dot product of c and β.
Preface xi
the utility of this approach will become clear in later chapters. The subspaces U
and W , together with their images under X, are our main focus of study beginning
in Chap. 4. They are the unifying theme of the book, uniting the two main topics
of the title.
• In factorial models, the subspaces U will consist of contrast vectors (Defini-
tion 1.30). Among these are the spaces UB where B is a partition (or blocking)
of the set T of treatment combinations. We define these block effects and develop
their basic properties in Sect. 5.2. They are fundamental in defining main effects
and interaction, and they allow us to express the notion of confounding in a very
general setting (Definition 5.40).
• Partially ordered sets, and in particular lattices, pervade the text. They arise
rather naturally with regard to linear hypotheses in both regression and factorial
models—see Sect. 4.3—and are necessary in any careful discussion of adjusted
and sequential sums of squares.
The lattice of partitions of a finite set (for us, the set of treatment combina-
tions) is of central interest. The ordering on partitions that we use is actually the
opposite of the more common ordering, but more natural; see Theorem 5.5 and
Remark A.8.
Theorem 5.5 introduces one of two lattice maps that play a crucial role. The
other map is induced by the linear transformation X; see Proposition 4.15.
• When it comes to factorial models, we follow a cell-means approach fairly
strictly. This means that rather than writing models such as E(Yij k ) = μ + αi +
βj +γij (which we call a factor-effects parametrization), we formulate everything
in terms of the cell means μij = E(Yij k ) (μij is the mean for cell ij ). Bose [22]
defined main effects and interactions in exactly this way, and the approach we
use is essentially his.
Factor-effects models are discussed in Sect. 2.5 and the cell-means approach
in Sect. 2.6. The factor-effects parametrization is very common, and this
exposition should give students facility in toggling between that and the cell-
means approach.
• If T is the set of cells (treatment combinations) in a factorial experiment, we
may denote the mean response in cell t by μt (as above) or by μ(t). Thus,
the set of mean responses can be represented as a vector μ with components
indexed by T or as a function μ defined on T . Section 5.1 leads the reader
to this functional point of view and replaces the parameter space Rp by the
space RT consisting of real-valued functions on T . This risks adding a layer
of unfamiliarity to the material, but I have found that it is a more natural way to
deal with factorial experiments. Each approach has its advantages, and students
should feel comfortable with both.
(This approach is of course necessary in extending linear model theory to
functional data, but that is beyond the scope of this book.)
• There are two distinct views of aliasing and resolution in the literature. One
common view defines these concepts in terms of estimability and bias. We
emphatically do not follow this view, which we discuss extensively in Sect. 6.7.
The approach we follow springs essentially from Rao’s seminal 1947 paper
xii Preface
I have paid some attention throughout the text to the history of certain ideas,
notably the discovery by Barnard of a useful group structure in so-called 2k
experiments. Her 1936 paper [10] led to generalizations over the next decade using
either geometry [23] or group theory [58, 59] and sparked an interest in applications
of algebra to design that continues to this day. The beginning of Chap. 5 includes
some biographical information about her, and I hope this book helps to spotlight the
significance of her contribution.
There are quite a few topics not covered in this text, including robustness,
nonnormality, dummy variables, and various designs (BIB and PBIB, split plot,
crossover, . . . ). On the other hand, I have included some topics that are less usual:
Identifiability and its relation to estimability. We include a careful discussion of
linear functions of a parameter.
Choice of weights in a two-factor design (Sect. 2.5.2). This analyzes Scheffé’s
discussion of the factor-effects model [121, pages 93–94].
Three elementary hypotheses (Sect. 2.2.1). These are used to build the usual
contrasts that define main effects in a two-factor experiment.
Associated hypotheses (Sect. 4.5.2). These were coined by Searle in [124] in his
critique of sequential sums of squares. We prove a general theorem showing that
these always exist and giving a method to find them.
The linear parametric function most responsible for rejecting H0 (Sect. 4.8.2).
Scheffé gives a form of this in [121, page 72].
Complex contrast vectors (Sect. 5.6.5). The components of these vectors are sth
roots of unity, and yield a generalization of Barnard’s original result to pk
factorial designs when s = p, a prime. They are studied here primarily to
2Box and Hunter include Rao’s paper in their bibliography but make no mention of it in their
exposition.
Preface xiii
Notation
We write vectors and matrices in boldface. As mentioned above, vectors are
assumed to be column vectors except where explicitly stated otherwise, and
indicates transpose. The notation | | means determinant if the argument is a matrix,
and cardinality if the argument is a set. The complement of the set E is denoted
by E c .
notation” is used to indicate summation: xij · =
“Dot k xij k , xi·· =
j k x ij k , and so on. If the indices
have ranges 1 ≤ i ≤ j ≤ J, 1 ≤
I, 1 ≤
k ≤ K, then we write x̄ij · = (1/K) k xij k , x̄i·· = (1/J K) j k xij k , etc., for
averages.
We sometimes use the abbreviation iff for “if and only if.” We assume the reader
is familiar with the quantifiers ∀ (“for all”) and ∃ (“there exists”).
Other notation is introduced in the text, and is referenced in the index.
Acknowledgments
I thank George Seber for a number of helpful discussions over the years concerning
the Wald statistic and other topics. This book was partly inspired by his text [128].
I also thank Angela Dean and Dan Voss for sharing their insights. Aside from their
publications, Voss’s thesis [144] provides a very readable guide to various methods
of confounding.
Thanks to Rahul Mukerjee and Boxin Tang for helpful discussions regarding
fractional designs. The recent book [98] by Mukerjee and Wu is an excellent intro-
duction to regular designs (and especially to minimum aberration), and influenced
some of my presentation of that material.
I am grateful to Terry Speed for alerting me to the survey article [53] containing
biographical information about Mildred M. Barnard.
Thanks to John Aldrich and Jeff Miller for help with historical information about
identifiability and the Gauss-Markov Theorem. A website on “Earliest Uses of Some
Words of Mathematics,” originally developed by Jeff, is now maintained at https://
mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Miller/mathword/.
I am indebted to the staff at Springer Nature, and especially to my editor,
Dr. Eva Hiripi, for their thoughtful handling of this book as they moved it from
xiv Preface
1 Linear Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Random Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Some Statistical Concepts .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.1 Identifiability .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.2 Estimation .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2.3 Testing: Confidence Sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.3 Linear Models.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.4 Regression Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.5 Factorial (ANOVA) Models .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.6 Linear Parametric Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.6.1 Identifiability .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.6.2 Contrasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.7 Linear Constraints and Hypotheses .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2 Effects in a Factorial Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.1 One-Factor Designs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.2 Two-Factor Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.2.1 Three Elementary Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.2.2 The Main Effects Hypotheses .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.2.3 Effects in a Two-Factor Design . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.3 Multifactor Designs.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.4 Quantitative Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.5 The Factor-Effects Parametrization .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.5.1 The One-Factor Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
2.5.2 Models with Two Factors.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
2.5.3 Models with Three or More Factors . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.5.4 The Different Systems of Weights . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.6 The Cell-Means Philosophy .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.7 Random Effects: Components of Variance . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
2.8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
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3 Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.1 The Method of Least Squares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.2 Properties of Least Squares Estimators . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.2.1 Estimability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.2.2 The Moore-Penrose Inverse of X . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.3 Estimating σ 2 : Sum of Squares, Mean Square .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
3.4 t-Tests, t-Intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
3.5 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
4 Testing . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
4.1 Testing a Linear Hypothesis .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
4.1.1 Testing in Constrained Models .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4.1.2 Replication. Lack of Fit and Pure Error .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4.2 The Wald Statistic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
4.3 The Lattice of Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
4.3.1 The Two-Predictor Regression Model . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4.3.2 The Three-Predictor Regression Model .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4.3.3 The Two-Factor Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.3.4 The Hypothesis of No Model Effect .. . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.3.5 The Lattice in the Observation Space . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.4 Adjusted SS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.5 Nested Hypotheses. Sequential SS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
4.5.1 Adjusted or Sequential? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
4.5.2 Associated Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
4.6 Orthogonal Hypotheses.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.6.1 Application: Factorial Designs .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
4.6.2 Application: Regression Models . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
4.7 Affine Hypotheses. Confidence Sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
4.8 Simultaneous Inference.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
4.8.1 The Bonferroni Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
4.8.2 The Scheffé Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
4.9 Inference for Variance Components Models . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
4.9.1 The One-Factor Design .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
4.9.2 The Two-Factor Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
4.9.3 Some Challenges.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
4.10 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
5 Multifactor Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
5.1 Vectors and Functions: Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
5.2 The General Theory of Block Effects.. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
5.3 The Multifactor Design: Reprise .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
5.4 The Kurkjian-Zelen Construction .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
5.4.1 Multilinear Algebra .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
5.4.2 Application to Factorial Designs . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
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