Gen AI Unit 2
Gen AI Unit 2
• Stochastic decoder
Autoregressive models
• An autoregressive model is a statistical model that describes a sequence of
observations where each observation depends on its preceding values. In
other words, the model predicts the next value in a sequence based on the
previous values. Autoregressive models are commonly used in time series
analysis, signal processing, and various other fields.
• The term "autoregressive" is derived from the idea that the model
regresses a variable onto itself. The mathematical representation of an
autoregressive model of order p, often denoted as AR(p), is given by the
following equation:
• Xt=ϕ1Xt−1+ϕ2Xt−2+…+ϕpXt−p+ϵt
• Xt is the value at time t, ϕ1,ϕ2,…,ϕp are the parameters of the model
representing the weights,
• Xt−1,Xt−2,…,Xt−p are the lagged values of the series (past observations),
ϵt is a white noise term representing the error or randomness at time
t.
• The order p indicates how many past observations are considered in
predicting the current value. If p=1, it's an AR(1) model, and if p=2, it's
an AR(2) model, and so on.
Types of Autoregressive Models
• Autoregressive models are used in various domains and have
different formulations:
• 2.1 Traditional Autoregressive Models
• These models are used in time series forecasting. The two most
common ones are:
• AR (Autoregressive) Model
• The AR model predicts the future value of a variable based on a weighted
sum of its past values.
• Example: AR(1) (first-order AR model)
• ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) Model
• Combines AR and MA (Moving Average) models.
• ARMA(p, q) includes both autoregressive terms and past error terms:
parameters.
Some conditionals are too complex. So FVSBN assume:
𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥3 𝑥4 𝜎(𝛼 =7i 𝑝+
= 𝑥4 1
𝛼𝑥 i=𝑥11 𝑥+ ⋯𝑥 +…
𝛼(i)𝑥 𝑥i–1)= 𝑓 𝑥 , 𝑥 , … , 𝑥 ; 𝛼i
i i i–1 1, 2, i–1 i 1 $ i–1
Gan Z , Henao R , Carlson D , et al. Learning Deep Sigmoid Belief Networks with Data Augmentation[C]// Artificial Intelligence and Statistics
(AISTATS). 2015.
FVSBN Example
• Suppose we have a dataset D of handwritten digits (binarised
MNIST)
• Each image has n = 28×28x1 = pixels. Each pixel can either be black (0)
or white (1).
• We want to learn a probability distribution 𝑝 𝑥= 𝑝(𝑥1, … , 𝑥784) over 𝑥 ∈
0,1 784such that when 𝑥~𝑝(𝑥), 𝑥 looks like a digit.
• Idea: define a FVSBN model , then pick a good one based on training data
D.
FVSBN Example
• We can pick an ordering, i.e., order variables (pixels) from top-left (𝑥1)
to bottom-right (𝑥)*+).
• Use product rule factorisation without loss of generality:
= 𝜎(𝛼 - & +
1 𝛼
&
𝑥1 + ⋯ + 𝛼(&) 𝑥)

modelling assumption
• Note: This is a . We are using a logistic regression
to predict next pixel distribution based on the previous ones. Called
autoregressive.
FVSBN Example
Neural Autoregressive Density Estimation (NADE)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLVo6KtWk2
Masked Autoencoder Density Estimation
(MADE)
Thank you