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QAB Tutorial

The document is a tutorial on various probability distributions including binomial, Poisson, uniform, exponential, and normal distributions. It contains multiple problems related to these distributions, along with their solutions, covering scenarios such as hitting targets, college acceptance probabilities, defective components, and expected profits. The document serves as a comprehensive guide for understanding and applying probability concepts in different contexts.

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Santanu Sinha
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19 views4 pages

QAB Tutorial

The document is a tutorial on various probability distributions including binomial, Poisson, uniform, exponential, and normal distributions. It contains multiple problems related to these distributions, along with their solutions, covering scenarios such as hitting targets, college acceptance probabilities, defective components, and expected profits. The document serves as a comprehensive guide for understanding and applying probability concepts in different contexts.

Uploaded by

Santanu Sinha
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability Distributions

Tutorial

(Binomial distribution, Poisson distribution, Uniform distribution, Exponential distribution,


Normal distribution)

1) The probability of a man hitting a target is 1/4.


i. If he fires 7 times, what is the probability of his hitting the target at least twice?
ii. How many times must he fire so that the probability of his hitting the target at
least once is greater than 2/3.

2) The probability that a student is accepted to a prestigious college is 0.3. If 5 students from
the same school apply, what is the probability that at most 2 are accepted?

3) An XYZ cell phone is made from 55 components. Each component has a 0.002
probability of being defective. What is the probability that an XYZ cell phone will not
work perfectly?

4) There is a small hotel at Lansdowne, a small hill station in Uttarakhand, having 10 rooms.
The hotel has no facility for room heating in winters. Many guests coming in winters ask
the hotel management to provide room heaters. The hotel management plans to provide
room heaters to the room occupants on extra payment of Rs. 200 for a room. Based on
feedback forms filled by old customers, the management calculates that about 40% of his
customers would be willing to rent a room heater. The management buys four room
heaters. The cost to the hotel per room heater is Rs. 20 per day if the heater is not rented
and Rs. 120 (including electricity charges) if the heater in rented. Assuming 100%
occupancy, obtain the expected profit to the hotel through room heaters per day during
winters.

5) The lifetime of TVs produced by a company are normally distributed with a mean of 75
months and a standard deviation of 8 months. If the manufacturer wants to have to replace
only 1% of the TVs, what should its warranty be?

6) Incoming phone calls generally are thought to be Poisson distributed. If an operator


averages 2.2 phone calls every 30 seconds, what is the expected amount of time between
calls? What is the probability that two minutes or more elapse between incoming calls?

7) Suppose inter-arrival times at a hospital emergency room during a weekday are


exponentially distributed, with an average inter-arrival time of 9 minutes. What would the
average number of arrivals per hour be? What is the probability that less than 5 minutes
will elapse between any two arrivals?

8) One-hundred-year records of earthquakes in a region show that there were 10 earthquakes


of intensity 6 or more. Calculate the following: (i) the probability that such earthquakes
will occur in the next 3 years; (ii) the probability that no such earthquake will occur in the
next 10 years.
9) An HDTV is made from 100 components. The TV works properly when all the
components work. Each component has a .005 probability of being defective. What is the
probability that an HDTV will not work perfectly?

10) The ABC Company manufactures toy robots. About 1 toy robot per 100 does not work.
You purchase 35 ABC toy robots. What is the probability that exactly 4 do not work?

11) An automobile manufacturer introduces a new model that averages 27 miles per gallon in
the city. A person who plans to purchase one of these new cars wrote the manufacturer
for the details of the tests, and found out that the standard deviation is 3 miles per gallon.
Assume that in-city mileage is approximately normally distributed
i. What is the probability that the person will purchase a car that averages less than 20
miles per gallon for in-city driving?
ii. What is the probability that the person will purchase a car that averages between 25
and 29 miles per gallon for in-city driving?

12) Suppose that the time X required to perform a certain job (in minutes) is uniformly
distributed on the interval (15, 60).
i. Find the probability that the job requires more than 30 minutes.
ii. Given that the job is not finished within 30 minutes, find the probability that the job
will require more than 15 additional minutes.

13) Every day a bakery prepares its famous cup-cakes. The daily demand for cakes is
normally distributed with a mean of 850 and a standard deviation of 90. How many cup-
cakes should the bakery make so that the chances of running short on any day are not
more than 20%.

14) The chance of having an extra fortune in a fortune cookie is about 3%. Given a bag of
144 fortune cookies, we are interested in the number of cookies with an extra fortune.

a) In words, define the random variable X.


b) How many cookies do we expect to have an extra fortune?
c) Find the probability that none of the cookies have an extra fortune.
d) Find the probability that more than three have an extra fortune.

15) It is known from historical data that the time that a postal clerk spends with a customer is
exponentially distributed with an average of four minutes. Find the probability that a clerk
spends four to five minutes with a randomly selected customer.
Solutions
1)
i. 0.5551
ii. At least 4

2) 0.8369

3) 0.1043

4) Let Y be number of demands for room heater. Clearly, Y~B(10, 0.4).


Let X be the number of room heaters rented. Then,
P(X=0) = P(Y=0) = 10C0 (0.4)0(1-0.4)10-0 = 0.0060
P(X=1) = P(Y=1) = 10C1 (0.4)1(1-0.4)10-1 = 0.0403
P(X=2) = P(Y=2) = 10C2 (0.4)2(1-0.4)10-2 = 0.1210
P(X=3) = P(Y=3) = 10C3 (0.4)3(1-0.4)10-3 = 0.2150
P(X=4) = P(Y ≥4) = 1 – P(Y ≤3) = 1- [0.0060+0.0403+0.1210+0.2150] = 0.6177

Let gain to the hotel be given by Z, then


Heaters p(x) Gain to the hotel (z) p(z) = p(x) z*p(z)
Rented (x)
0 0.0060 0*200 – (0*120+4*20)= -80 0.0060 -0.48
1 0.0403 1*200 – (1*120+3*20)= 20 0.0403 0.81
2 0.1210 2*200 – (2*120+2*20)= 120 0.1210 14.52
3 0.2150 3*200 – (3*120+1*20)= 220 0.2150 47.30
4 0.6177 4*200 – (4*120+0*20)= 320 0.6177 197.66
Total 1 1 259.81

Expected profit to the hotel through room heaters per day during winters = E(Z) = 259.81 Rs.

5) P(X< ?)=.01; P(Z< -2.3263) = 0.01; Approximately 56 months,

6)  = 2.2 calls30 secs.

Expected time between calls = µ = 1/ = 30 sec /(2.2) = 13.64 sec.

P(X > 2 min.  = 2.2 calls per 30 secs.): Since Lambda and x are for different
intervals, Change Lambda to:  = 4.4 calls/1 min.
Use Exponential distribution
P(X > 2 min.  = 4.4 calls/1 min.)= e-x = e-4.4(2) = .0002

7) µ = 9 minutes
 = 1/µ = .1111/minute = .1111(60)/hour = 6.67/hour

P(X< 5 minutes  = .1111/minute) = 1 - P(X > 5 minutes  =.1111/minute)= 1- e-x

= 1- e-.1111(5) = .4262
8) (i) λ = 0.3, 1 - P(X=0) = 0.2592; (ii) λ=1, P(X=0)=0.3679

9) Probability that it will work (0 defective components) = .606


Probability that it will not work perfectly is 1 - .606 = .394 or 39.40%

10) .00038

11)
i. 0.009815
ii. 0.495015
12)

i. 2/3
ii. 1/2

13) 926 or more, Find x such that P(X< x)= .8 i.e Find Z1 such that P(Z< Z1) = 0.8
Z= 0.8416, use transformation rule to find x.

Alternately use Norm.inv (.8,850,90) in Excel.

14) a. X = the number of fortune cookies that have an extra fortune

b. 4.32
c. 0.0133
d. 0.6264

15)  =1/ 4 per min

Find P(4 < x < 5).

P(x < 5) = 1 – e(–0.25)(5) = 0.7135 and P(x < 4) = 1 – e(–0.25)(4) = 0.6321

P(4 < x < 5)= 0.7135 – 0.6321 = 0.0814

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