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Chapter 8
EXPERIMENTS, MODELS AND
PROBABILITY PROBABILITY
 Chapter 8
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EXPERIMENTS, MODELS AND PROBABILITY

8.1 Sample Spaces & Events
8.2 Interpretations of Probability
8.3 Addition Rules
8.4 Conditional Probability
8.5 Multiplication and Total Probability Rules
8.6 Independence
8.7 Bayes’ Theorem
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SECTION 8.1
SAMPLE SPACES & EVENTS
(Cont..)
Counting Techniques

Multiplication Rules

If an operation can be described as a ________ of k steps, and if the

number of ways of completing step 1 is n1, and if the number of ways of
completing step 2 is n2 for each way of completing step 1, and if the
number of ways of completing step 3 is n3 for each way of completing
step 2, and so forth, the ____ number of ways of completing the
operation is 𝑛1 × 𝑛2 × ⋯ × 𝑛𝑘

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 Multiplication Rules

Example 8.4 John is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has

the choice of ordering chips from two brands, a hard drive
from four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle
from five local stores. How many different ways can Sam
order the parts?

Solutions Since 𝑛1 = 2, 𝑛2 = 4, 𝑛3 = 3, and 𝑛4 = 5, there are

𝑛1 × 𝑛2 × 𝑛3 × 𝑛4 = 2 × 4 × 3 × 5 = 120

different ways to order the parts.

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Ordered Samples & Permutation

Permutation is the arrangement of objects that takes order into account.

This means that in a permutation, the _________ or order of each object is important.

Example: If we have the letters A, B, and C, the possible arrangements are ABC, ACB, BAC,
BCA, CAB, and CBA. Each of these arrangements is a different ___________.

The formula for calculating permutations of n objects taken r at a time is:

The formula for calculating permutations of ___________ objects taken r at a time is:

Permutation: Order matters (e.g., ABC ____ BAC).

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Ordered Samples & Permutation

Suppose we have items numbered 1, 2, …, n and are drawing an ordered sample of size r.

If we do not replace each “number” after it is drawn, then choices for second draw depend on
first draw but regardless there are (n – 1) choices.

Also, whatever the first two draws, there are (n – 2) ways to draw the third number, etc.

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Ordered Samples & Permutation

E.g: A 100-meters race event of 10 participants is conducted and 3 winners will be

selected for the 1st , 2nd and 3rd place. How many selections to choose 3 winners
from 10 participants?
In this case, n= 10 and r =3 and a sequence outcome is needed for winners (________ outcome).

Before the 1st place identified, how many possible outcome would be the 1st place?

Once 1st place identified, how many possible outcome would be the 2nd place?

Then how many possible outcome for the 3rd place?

How many ways to get 1st, 2nd and 3rd place?

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Ordered Samples & Permutation

There are:
𝑛 × 𝑛 − 1 × 𝑛 − 2 × ⋯ × (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1) = 𝑃𝑟𝑛

10 × 9 × 8 = 720

ways to choose an ordered sample of size without replacement from { 1,2, . . ., n }. This is called a
permutation 𝑟≤𝑛

𝑛!
𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑛 × 𝑛 − 1 × 𝑛 − 2 × ⋯ × 𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1 =
𝑛−𝑟 !

P, from n, choose r

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 Ordered Samples & Permutation

Example 8.5
In one year, three awards (research, teaching and service)
will be given for a class of 25 graduate students in
engineering department. If each student can receive at most
one award, how many possible selections are there?

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 Ordered Samples & Permutation

Solution
Is the award distinguishable and without replacement?

If yes, it is a permutation without replacement problem. The

total number of samples:
25! 25!
𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑃325 = = = 25 24 23 = 13,800 ways
25 − 3 ! 22!

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Ordered Samples & Permutation

Permutation with Similar Objects

The number of permutation of 𝑛 = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 objects of which n1

are of one type, n2 are of the second type, …, and nr are of r-th type is
𝑛!
𝑃𝑟𝑛 =
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! … 𝑛𝑟 !

Example 8.6
How many ways to arrange word M I S S I S S I P P I ?

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 Ordered Samples & Permutation

Permutation with Similar Objects

Solution
Check the number for each type =
- M=1
- I =4
- S=4
- P=2

Ways to arrange
𝑛! 11!
Number of ways = = = the letters of MISSISSIPPI
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! … 𝑛𝑟 ! 1! 4! 4! 2!

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 Ordered Samples & Permutation

Permutation with Similar Objects

Example 8.7 In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs to
have 10 players standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there are 1
freshman, 2 sophomores, 4 juniors, and 3 seniors respectively. How many
different ways can they be arranged in a row if only their class level will be
distinguish?

Solution The total number of arrangement is

10! 12,600
=
1! 2! 4! 3!

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Unordered Samples & Combination

Consider sampling ________ replacement. A combination is the _______ of objects where order does not matter.

In a combination, we are only concerned with the group of selected objects, not their order. Now, suppose we are
interested in the number of ways of selecting r objects from n without regard to order.

Example:
If we have the letters A, B, and C, and we want to choose two letters at a time, the possible selections are AB, AC,
and BC. Here, AB and BA are considered the same combination because order does not matter..

This selections are called ____________. It is denoted as 𝐶𝑟𝑛 and the number of combinations is:

𝑛 𝑛!
𝐶𝑟𝑛 = =
𝑟 𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !

C, from n, choose r
Combination: Order does not matter (e.g., AB ______BA).
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Unordered Samples & Combination

E.g: A 100-meters race event of 10 participants is conducted and 3 winners will be

selected. How many selections to choose 3 winners from 10 participants?

Solution
In this case, n= 10 and r =3 and no sequence outcome is needed for winners (unordered outcome).
𝑛 10
𝐶𝑟𝑛 = =
𝑟 3
𝑛!
= 𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !
10!
= 3! 7 !

= 120

Calc: 10 nCr 3

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 Combinations
Example 8.8 A young boy asks his mother to get five Game-BoxTM cartridges from his
collection of 10 arcade and 5 sport games. How many ways are there that his
mother will get 3 arcade and 2 sport games, respectively?

The number of ways of selecting 3 cartridges from 10 is

10 10!
Solution = = 120
3 3! 10 − 3 !

The number of ways of selecting 2 cartridges from 5 is

5 5!
= = 10
2 2! 5 − 2 !

Using the multiplication rule 𝑛1 × 𝑛2 = 120 10 = 1200 ways.

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End of
Chapter 8.1 - Part 2