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CONTENTS
Preface viii
References 443
Author Index 465
Subject Index 473
vii
PREFACE
The first edition of this book appeared in late 1999. Since that time, the book
has been translated into Spanish, Japanese, and Chinese. It has been satisfying to hear
from students and teachers from around the world who have used the book. Comments
are a mixture of general opinions (mostly positive) and constructive suggestions. Overall,
it has been very gratifying to see one’s labors being appreciated and having some effect in
far corners of the globe.
The field of environmental economics has grown significantly since the manuscript
for the first edition of this text was finished in 1998. Over the past decade, the focus of
environmental policy has shifted, and new methods and applications have been devel-
oped in environmental economics. For those reasons alone, a second edition is warranted.
But almost from the day the first edition hit the streets, it has been clear that some sec-
tions of the book could be pedagogically improved, in part by smoothing out the uneven
level of difficulty in different sections of book.
As in the first edition, a real effort has been made to make the text read as if it were
written from a global perspective and for it not to be simply another U.S. text; environ-
mental economics is one of the most international of all fields of economics with active
practitioners in the developed and developing world. To what extent this internationaliza-
tion has been achieved is perhaps best judged by readers from around the world.
The book has been divided into four parts, with Parts II and III constituting the bulk
of the book. The first part (Chapters 1 and 2) serves as an introduction to the topic, pro-
viding some perspective on environmental policy in several regions of the world as well
as a discussion of the distinction between normative and positive problems in environ-
mental economics.
Part II (Chapters 3–10) is largely normative, asking the general question “How Much
Environmental Quality?” Environmental economics has a good deal to offer to help deci-
sion makers make decisions about how tight regulations should be. Cost-benefit analysis
is part of this, where the costs and benefits of a government action are toted up and bal-
anced. However, this is implicitly a normative question, subject to criticisms in terms of
value judgments that are implicit in any normative analysis.
Part III (Chapters 11–17) is largely positive, focusing on regulating firms and indi-
viduals. The basic questions are what does the menu of regulatory options look like and
how do firms and individuals tend to behave when confronted by such regulations?
Part IV (Chapters 18–20) is a set of miscellaneous additional topics. Undoubtedly the
list could be longer; however, most important questions are at least touched upon.
Problems are included at the end of each chapter. Some of the problems are particu-
larly challenging and these have been marked with an asterisk (*).
viii
There is more material in the book than can be covered in the typical one-term class.
When I teach from the book, I try to cover all chapters but pick and choose the subsec-
tions of each chapter. In this way, students are exposed to the important components of
the field of environmental economics.
As in the first edition of this book, a distinction is made between environmental eco-
nomics and environmental policy. As in the first edition, environmental policy receives
short shrift here, primarily because it is such a large topic and not the exclusive domain
of economics.
Furthermore, as in the first edition, a distinction is made between resource economics
and environmental economics, with the latter represented in this book. (At the University
of California, Santa Barbara, we teach environmental economics in one ten-week course
and resource economics in another ten-week course.) However, in the first edition, the
dividing line between resource and environmental economics was time: static problems
generally were considered the domain of environmental economics, whereas dynamic
problems were the domain of resource economics. In this edition, a somewhat different
division is made, using the concept of market failure. In the universe of environmental
and natural resources, when market failure is an issue, it will be considered the domain
of environmental economics. Thus externalities belong to environmental economics but
optimal management of a forest does not (unless an externality happens to be present).
Thus fisheries and other open access resources are also considered part of environmental
economics. From a practical point of view, this change simply implies a few more topics
are included that were not in the first edition.
The book remains targeted at students who have mastered intermediate micro-
economics (and ideally have some familiarity with calculus). In the U.S., these would be
undergraduate economics majors in the last year or two of their baccalaureate degree
program. The book may also be useful for master’s students, though the environmen-
tal policy content is perhaps too low to function as a stand-alone text for professional
master’s students.
As the book moves into the third millennium, so too does the technology supporting
it. A solutions manual is available for instructors adopting this text; please contact your
OUP sales representative for a copy. Also available for instructors and students, via the
book’s companion web site at www.oup.com/us/kolstad, are PowerPoint-based figures
from the text and errata, as they come available.
Acknowledgments
Many people have offered suggestions and comments and I have appreciated the feedback.
Even as minor a comment as a student coming up to me and saying he or she used my
book in a class means a great deal.
Certainly my own students have given me a great deal of useful feedback. I have
taught using this book at UC Santa Barbara, Stanford, MIT and Katholieke Universiteit
Leuven. I have received valuable feedback from the students enrolled in my classes as well
as from the teaching assistants (PhD students studying environmental economics) who
have helped with those classes.
Some of the people who have provided valuable feedback or input are: Ross Mohr
(UCSB), Matt Kotchen (Yale and UCSB), Sarani Saha (IIT Kanpur), Ian Sue Wing (Boston
University), Patricia Silva (University of Copenhagen), Gloria Helfand (Michigan), Rick
xPREFACE
ONE
INTRODUCTION
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1
THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMICS
Tell someone you study environmental economics and the usual response is
a look of puzzlement and the query “Just what is that?” A natural reaction, particularly
considering the common belief in some circles that economics is the root of the “environ-
mental problem.”
Environmental economics is concerned with the impact of the economy on the
environment, the significance of the environment to the economy, and the appropriate
way of regulating economic activity so that balance is achieved among environmental,
economic, and other social goals. What distinguishes a morally neutral chemical such as
sulfur dioxide from the pollutant sulfur dioxide is the economy. The polluters who emit
sulfur dioxide do so because it is a by-product of producing some good the public wants;
consumers want the good associated with sulfur dioxide but at the same time obtain
disutility (damage) from the sulfur dioxide pollution. The essence of the environmental
problem is the economy—producer behavior and consumer desires. Without the econ-
omy, most environmental issues are simply research questions of concern to chemists or
biologists with no policy significance.
There is no question that today environmental protection is recognized by societies
and governments around the world, in both developed and developing nations, as being
a top public policy and quality-of-life issue. Although people have been concerned about
environmental quality for decades, or even centuries, the widespread societal recognition
of the importance of environmental protection is a relatively recent phenomenon.
In this chapter we first consider the discipline of environmental economics, a sub-
field of economics. We then turn to a broad treatment of environmental problems and
policy approaches that have been taken to provide society with higher levels of environ-
mental quality.
For most goods and services in a modern economy, we rely on markets to match pro-
ducer costs with consumer demands to yield the “right” amount of production (and
3
4CHAPTER 1THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMICS
thus consumption). The problem with pollution is that markets do not work to yield the
socially desirable amount of pollution. This illustrates the breadth of problems that need
answers: What are the incentives for the generation of pollution? What are the costs of
cleaning up pollution? What are the societal gains from pollution control? What is the
right balance between costs of control and gains from control? What regulatory mecha-
nisms can be designed to ensure the right balance between costs and gains? Sometimes
these issues are straightforward; othertimes they are exceedingly complex.
Although the field of environmental economics probably dates to the late 1950s
and early 1960s with the important contributions emerging from the “think tank”
Resources for the Future,1 the field really took off in the 1970s and has been booming
ever since. In the 1990s the payoff began to be seen in terms of influence on environ-
mental policy. Marketable permits for pollution control are now widely embraced,
valuation methods are an integral part of environmental prevention, environmental
valuation is being used to make decisions concerning major public projects with
environmental impacts, and environmental economics is playing a major role in the
current climate change debate. Now, as the world works to develop regulatory means
to control climate change, a very large proportion of proposed regulatory approaches
involve markets for emission rights.
In the sections that follow we will more fully develop several of these dimensions
of environmental economics. We first consider how environmental economics relates
to environmental policy. Next, we examine how environmental economics meshes with
the larger discipline of economics. We then discuss two related terms that have emerged
in the academic and policy world—ecological economics and environmental economics.
How do they differ? Environmental economics is also closely related to resource eco-
nomics. What is the connection and what are the distinctions between them? Finally we
consider several important issues, currently the subject of much research and debate, that
confront the field of environmental economics.
two major issues—what is the right amount of pollution and how can we get polluters to
control their emissions?
Determining the right amount of pollution is not easy. Pollution is generated as a
by-product of producing goods. To determine the costs of pollution control it is necessary
to understand the structure of goods production and how costs will differ for different
levels of pollution. Contrary to what most people might think, this is not an engineering
question. Although it is easy to find out how much it would cost for a piece of equipment
that is placed on a smokestack to reduce pollutants in the smoke (a “scrubber”), to an
economist that is only the tip of the cost iceberg. Faced with the prospect of having to
reduce pollution levels, the firm has many options. These include end-of-pipe treatment,
modifying the production process, modifying the characteristics of the product, relocat-
ing the productive activity to reduce damage, and investing in research and development
to find new ways of controlling pollution. If a pollution permit market exists, the firm
has the additional choice of buying permits to emit, rather than reducing emissions.
Consumers can also reduce consumption of the polluting good. Thus characterizing costs
at a conceptual level, as well as measuring these costs empirically, is a complex question
without easy answers. It is also the domain of environmental economics.
Determining the right amount of pollution also involves determining damages
from pollution. The words “damages from pollution” deceptively suggest that this is a
natural science question, such as counting the dead fish on a polluted lake or determin-
ing the level of pollution at which people begin to get sick. This is an oversimplification
of the multitude of ways pollution affects people and the relative seriousness of these
effects to people. Air pollution in an urban area can cause physical irritation (itchy
eyes, running nose), reduced visibility, degraded visibility (a brown pale), soiled clothes,
decreased lung capacity, worry about adverse effects, increased susceptibility to illness,
and of course illness itself. Some of these effects are tangible, others are very intangible.
Economics is accustomed to condensing this variety of effects into a single measure—
the willingness to pay to reduce pollution. If pollution is bad, people are willing to
devote some of their resources to eliminating the pollution. Leaving aside the fact that
most people think the polluter should pay, one way of measuring the overall magnitude
or importance of pollution reduction to a person is through his or her willingness to
give up something valuable in exchange for improved personal environmental quality.
Measuring this willingness to pay is not easy and is the subject of much research in
environmental economics.
Having characterized the importance of pollution reduction to individuals (their
willingness to pay), it is possible to sum up individual preferences to obtain a societal
willingness to pay to reduce pollution. It is then easy to combine this with the cost of
pollution control to determine the socially optimal amount of pollution reduction. But
how to obtain this? The government could tell each polluter how much to emit, but this
would be analogous to central planning in the old Soviet Union—we know it works up
to a point but has severe problems, particularly when there are many firms and polluters
involved. It is difficult to determine the best way for the government to intervene in the
economy (“regulate”) to yield the right amount of pollution control without excessive
administrative costs or control costs while at the same time providing the right incentives
to undertake research to reduce costs for the future.
So the “simple” job of fixing the problem of pollution is not so easy at the policy
level and can involve hard-to-solve problems, many in the domain of environmental
6CHAPTER 1THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMICS
economics. The examples we have used are from developed economies but a very similar
analysis could apply to a developing country. Air pollution is a big problem in many cities
of the developing world. Water pollution is probably the most severe environmental prob-
lem in many developing countries: water contaminated by human waste kills millions of
people annually. The same issues of costs, demand for clean-up, and how to regulate apply
equally to this question.
Another important type of policy question is the preservation of natural environ-
ments, broadly defined. This could involve preserving wild and scenic areas from devel-
opment or protecting animal and plant species from extinction. Here the primary issue is
providing balance between the forces of development that threaten these environmental
resources and the social value of preservation. How can both sides of this equation be
quantified to help policymakers when they are confronted with very specific decisions
(such as whether to allow logging in a virgin forest)?
These examples could go on and on. The point is that environmental protection usu-
ally involves the intervention of governments in the economy and it is often difficult to
decide on the proper extent and nature of that intervention. Environmental economics
as it is applied to real environmental problems can be invaluable in helping make those
important decisions.
fields take quite different perspectives, but are ultimately concerned with helping make
social decisions about environmental problems. Unfortunately, in many non-English
speaking countries the distinction between the two fields is lost in the translation because
of the similarities between the words “environmental” and “ecological.”
A simple distinction between the two fields arises from the fact that environmental
economics tends to involve economists who have extended their discipline and paradigm
to consider the environment, whereas ecological economics tends to involve ecologists
who have extended their discipline and paradigm to consider humans and the economy.
Another distinction between the fields is that ecological economics is very multidisciplin-
ary. In contrast to environmental economics, which is a branch of economics, ecological
economics welcomes and embraces practitioners from a wide variety of fields who wish to
study the environment–society interface. But this is history; the appropriate question to
ask is how do the two fields approach environmental problems and how do they differ?
Ecological economics (as well as conventional economics) is difficult to succinctly
define. One of the leading ecological economists defines the subject as a “field of study
that addresses the relationships between ecosystems and economic systems in the broad-
est sense.”2 The emphasis is on the very long-term health of the ecosystem, broadly
defined (i.e., with humans as part of it). In a 2007 invited lecture to the European Society
of Ecological Economics, Malte Faber argues that an interest in “nature, justice and
time constitutes the defining characteristic of ecological economist.”3 He argues that the
economy must be considered a part of nature, that doing what is just must be a central
tenet of the field, and that the issue of time is oversimplified in conventional economics.
It follows that ecological economics tends to be normative, indicating what soci-
ety should do, rather than positive, describing what society actually does (as discussed
earlier). And one major distinction between the two fields is associated with value and
thus the way in which social decisions are made that depend on measures of value of the
environment. Conventional economists believe that value to society derives from the
individual values held by human members of society. Ecological economists take a more
biophysical view of value. For instance, some ecological economists measure value in
terms of embodied energy content. Thus in comparing a typewriter to a computer, the
appropriate question is which took more energy to create? Less energy is better. This is a
direct extension of ecological theories that ecosystems operate to minimize the through-
put of energy. To these researchers, minimizing the energy content of delivered goods and
services should drive public policy. The criticism leveled at this “energy theory of value”
by environmental economists is that there are many resources in short supply, including
land and skilled people. Reducing the value of a good to the embodied content of any fac-
tor is an oversimplification. Environmental economists believe the value of a good stems
from its embodied content of multiple scarce factors (including energy) as well as how
much value individual people place on the final good. In other words, value cannot be
reduced to a simple physical metric.
A recurring theme among some ecological economists (but not all) is the notion that
economic growth is undesirable. Further, these practitioners argue that a central tenet of
economics is that growth is desirable. To a large extent, this stems from a misunderstand-
ing of growth. Technological progress and education, as well as population growth, have
in fact led to economic growth. But it is not inevitable that this growth be at the expense of
the environment. Consumption can be of material goods (such as steel or motor vehicles)
or it can be of aesthetic goods (such as art or literature).
Environmental Economics as a Discipline9
However, the greatest distinction between the fields emerges when considering envi-
ronmental problems with very long-time horizons, such as global warming or disposal
of nuclear wastes. As some environmental economists will readily admit, economics has
a difficult time analyzing problems in which costs and benefits span long time horizons.
For instance, storing nuclear wastes can involve potential risks that extend for a quarter
of a million years. The benefits of the storage are reaped by the present consumers of
nuclear power; the costs, if any, are borne by future generations that must live with the
nuclear repositories. The conventional economic approach to this is to add up all of the
costs and benefits, whenever they may occur, but to apply a discount factor to reduce the
importance of future costs in the sum. Inevitably, this means that what happens a century
from now has very little effect on the decisions that are made today. To many people, this
is disquieting. Ecological economists have proposed other ways of dealing with the inter-
temporal decision problem, particularly the notion of sustainability. They argue that we
should never undertake any action that is not sustainable in the long run. In the nuclear
waste example, they would ask: Can we continue to bury waste forever and ever and be
satisfied with the world that results? If the answer is no, then the action is not sustainable.
It is not a matter of balancing costs and benefits. There is some intuitive appeal to such
a philosophy.
Over the past decade, the lines between environmental economics and ecologi-
cal economics have become more blurred, at least based on the content of the journal
Ecological Economics, where environmental economists (as well as ecological economists)
regularly publish. As a case in point, the first edition of this textbook cited no articles
from the journal, whereas the current edition of this textbook cites several. The distinc-
tions are clearly evolving.
How fast we extract an exhaustible resource will determine its scarcity in the future, and
thus its price in the future. It is time, rather than the failure of markets to operate prop-
erly, that is the essence of this logging example.
There are overlaps between environmental and resource economics. The manage-
ment of a fishery to deal with overfishing is a good example in which the failure of mar-
kets is important (the fact that fishers may freely enter the market) as well as dynamics
(growth and regeneration of the fishery is what makes it a renewable resource). Global
warming is an example of a pollution problem with a very long time frame. There are
other overlaps, primarily in the preservation of natural environments. These issues
involve time so they could be relegated to resource economics. On the other hand, dam-
age to natural environments is often the incidental result of economic activity with a
different primary purpose. Species loss is usually the result of conversion of habitat to
human use.
So we see that many environmental economics problems (but not all) are static,
whereas many resource economics problems are dynamic.4 Most environmental econom-
ics problems involve market failure, whereas many resource economics problems (but not
all) do not. In other words, there is overlap between the fields. For the most part, in this
book we are concerned with environmental problems involving market failure. As such,
we cover pollution problems but also discuss the management of fisheries.5
There are many comprehensive assessments of the state of the world’s environment.6 It
is unnecessary to offer another review here. What we would like to do is provide some
indication of the breadth of problems that are deemed environmental and to gain an
appreciation for what problems are being solved and what problems remain difficult to
solve and are likely to be a focus of attention in the coming decades.
Pollution problems are not new to mankind. There are records of the Romans com-
plaining about the “stink of smokey chimneys.” 7 Pollution control laws in other parts
of Europe date from the Middle Ages. It has always been the case that urban areas have
bad pollution problems, primarily because of the large concentrations of people. People
are associated with emissions as well as being the reason pollution is damaging. But
outside of cities, historically the earth’s size has been vast enough to dissipate even the
most serious environmental threat. What is new is the magnitude of the problem and
the fact that the world is no longer infinite compared to the ability of people to pollute
it. In the 1960s and 1970s many people around the world were galvanized into doing
something to curb environmental degradation. In most countries, significant move-
ments to protect the environment date from this period.8 To a very large extent, the
enormous size of our current world’s population and the high standard of living of por-
tions of the population are responsible for the pressures on the environment. A larger
economy generates more pollution, all other things being equal; richer citizens usually
demand higher levels of environmental quality. And as long as the world becomes more
populated and wealthier, the pressures will only increase. This is not to say environ-
mental problems cannot be solved, only that it will become increasingly difficult to
protect the earth’s environment.
The Quality of the Environment11
A. Air Pollution
Air pollution is primarily a by-product of energy consumption. Impurities in fuels lead
to emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter. It is a basic fact of chemistry that
burning carbon-based fuels leads to emissions of oxidized carbon—carbon dioxide,
a major greenhouse gas. Because our atmosphere contains significant amounts of
nitrogen in addition to oxygen, burning fuels inevitably leads to emissions of nitrogen
oxides. Tropo-spheric ozone is not directly emitted from fuel combustion but results
chemically from high concentrations of nitrogen oxides (from fuel combustion) and
organic vapors (from paint drying and gasoline evaporating, among other things), in
the presence of sunshine. It has proved to be very difficult to control ozone in many
urban areas of the world.
To a large extent, air pollutants are at their worst in urban areas, due to concentra-
tions of people, both as sources of the pollution (directly or indirectly) and as victims
of the pollution. Air pollution can lead to health problems, including sickness as well as
physical irritation and reduced human performance. The young and those weakened by
other illnesses may be particularly susceptible to the effects of urban air pollutants. Urban
air pollution also damages materials (such as buildings), increases the cost of mainte-
nance (such as increased cleaning requirements), and degrades aesthetics (no one likes to
live in a brown haze).
At a regional level, air pollutants may damage crops (though some sulfur and car-
bon pollution can help crops). Acid deposition is a regional problem in many parts of
the world. Deposition of sulfur and nitrogen-based acids can harm forest and aquatic
ecosystems. Regional haze from nitrogen and sulfur pollutants is also a problem in areas
with less rainfall. Carbon dioxide is a global pollutant in that overall levels in the earth’s
atmosphere lead to increases in the heat-trapping capacity of the atmosphere, which leads
to global warming. Controlling the precursors of climate change is the subject of intense
current international debate.
Some urban air pollutants have been curbed with some success, though not without
cost and not in all parts of the world. Sulfur dioxide emissions in Western Europe, North
America, and the rest of the developed world have been the subject of significant con-
trol over the past two decades. Aggregate emissions appear to have peaked and are now
declining. Table 1.1 shows a twenty-five-year time series for three pollutants for three
countries, one in transition from poor to middle-income (China), one rich (Japan), and
one in between (Iran). Note the dissimilarity among the three pollutants represented.
Carbon dioxide emissions, which lead to global warming, have been increasing over the
period and are higher in wealthier countries. Sulfur dioxide is almost the opposite. In
fact, sulfur dioxide seems to be particularly troubling for the middle-income country,
Iran. With money (income), the problem can be solved, as the Japan data demonstrate.
Suspended particulates (soot) are worse in lower income countries and tend to be less of a
problem as income levels rise. The story Table 1.1 tells is that not all air pollutants are the
same; nor are the same pollutants always the most problematic across countries.
12CHAPTER 1THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMICS
TABLE 1.1 Air Pollution Indicators for Selected Cities and Years
China
GDP per capita (2005 U.S.$)a 523 1,099 2,664 4,076
SO2 concentration (Beijing)b 66 107 71 50
Particulate concentration (Beijing)b 475 413 106 89
Per capita CO2 emissions (tonnes) 2 2 3 4
Iran
GDP per capita (2005 U.S.$)a 7,087 6,254 7,667 9,314
SO2 concentration (Tehran)b 130 165 209 NA
Particulate concentration (Tehran)b 226 261 71 58
Per capita CO2 emissions (tonnes) 3 4 5 7
Japan
GDP per capita (2005 U.S.$)a 18,652 25,953 28,613 30,310
SO2 concentration (Tokyo)b 42 24 19 NA
Particulate concentration (Tokyo)b 61 NA 43 40
Per capita CO2 emissions (tonnes) 8 9 9 10
a
GDP per capita from World Bank, computed using purchasing power parities, in constant
2005 International dollars.
b
Mean annual concentrations in city center (μg/m3). For reference, the U.S. primary ambient
standards are 80 μg/m3 for SO 2 and 50 μg/m3 for particulates (PM10), though in 1997 these were
revised to distinguish between fine and coarser particulates.
Source: World Bank, World Development Report (various issues); World Bank (1992); World
Bank World Development Indicators online database (World Bank, 2009); United Nations
Environment Program (2008); OECD (2006). In some cases, data unavailable for specific year;
adjacent year used.
B. Water Pollution
Water pollution has traditionally been the result of organic material deposited in water-
ways or lakes. Organic waste is problematic since it needs oxygen to decompose. Thus one
of the measures of the quantity of pollution is biologic oxygen demand (BOD). Oxygen is
of course needed for fish to survive. So if pollution has such a high BOD that the water
body becomes depleted of oxygen, the water body can no longer support much in the way
of life. In addition, with oxygen depleted, decomposition is now from anaerobic bacteria,
which do not require oxygen. Such decomposition tends to be very odiferous. A major
type of organic waste is of course human waste, which usually also involves significant
human pathogens.
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Language: English
ARCHIBALD HURD
AUTHOR (JOINT) OF "GERMAN SEA-POWER, ITS RISE, PROGRESS
AND ECONOMIC BASIS."
MCMXV
CONTENT
CHAPTER PAGE
INTRODUCTION 7
I. PAST ASCENDENCY 19
II. THE FIRST GERMAN FLEET 26
GERMANY'S FLEET IN THE LAST
III. CENTURY 51
BRITISH INFLUENCE ON THE
IV. GERMAN NAVY 80
V. THE GERMAN NAVY ACTS 93
GERMAN SHIPS, OFFICERS, AND
VI. MEN 142
WILLIAM II. AND HIS NAVAL
VII. MINISTER 155
APPENDIX
—GERMANY'S NAVAL POLICY
I. 183
APPENDIX —BRITISH AND GERMAN SHIP-
II. BUILDING PROGRAMMES 189
INTRODUCTION
In the history of nations there is probably no chapter more
fascinating and arresting than that which records the rise and fall
and subsequent resurrection of German sea-power.
In our insular pride, conscious of our glorious naval heritage, we are
apt to forget that Germany had a maritime past, and that long
before the German Empire existed the German people attained pre-
eminence in oversea commerce and created for its protection fleets
which exercised commanding influence in northern waters.
It is an error, therefore, to regard Germany as an up-start naval
Power. The creation of her modern navy represented the revival of
ancient hopes and aspirations. To those ambitions, in their
unaggressive form, her neighbours would have taken little
exception; Germany had become a great commercial Power with
colonies overseas, and it was natural that she should desire to
possess a navy corresponding to her growing maritime interests and
the place which she had already won for herself in the sun.
The more closely the history of German sea-power is studied the
more apparent it must become, that it was not so much Germany's
Navy Acts, as the propaganda by which they were supported and
the new and aggressive spirit which her naval organisation brought
into maritime affairs that caused uneasiness throughout the world
and eventually created that feeling of antagonism which found
expression after the opening of war in August, 1914.
In the early part of 1913 I wrote, in collaboration with a friend who
possessed intimate knowledge of the foundations and the strength
of the German Empire, a history of the German naval movement,[1]
particular emphasis being laid on its economic basis. In the
preparation of the present volume I have drawn upon this former
work. It has been impossible, however, in the necessarily limited
compass of one of the Daily Telegraph War Books, to deal with the
economic basis upon which the German Navy has been created. I
believe that the chapters in "German Sea-Power" with reference to
this aspect of German progress—for which my collaborator was
responsible and of which, therefore, I can speak without reserve—
still constitute a unique presentation of the condition of Germany on
the eve of the outbreak of war.
Much misconception exists as to the staying power of Germany. The
German Empire as an economic unit is not of mushroom growth.
Those readers who are sufficiently interested in the subject of the
basis of German vitality, will realise vividly by reference to "German
Sea-Power" the deep and well-laid foundations upon which not only
the German Navy, but the German Empire rest.
Whether this history should be regarded as the romance of the
German Navy or the tragedy of the German Navy must for the
present remain an open question. In everyday life many romances
culminate in tragedy, and the course of events in the present war
suggest that the time may be at hand when the German people will
realise the series of errors committed by their rulers in the
upbuilding of German sea-power. Within the past fifteen years it is
calculated that about £300,000,000 has been spent in the
maintenance and expansion of the German Fleet, the improvement
of its bases, and the enlargement of the Kiel Canal. Much of this
money has been raised by loans. Those loans are still unpaid; it was
believed by a large section of the German people that Great Britain,
hampered by party politics and effete in all warlike pursuits, would,
after defeat, repay them. That hope must now be dead.
The German people, as the memorandum which accompanied the
Navy Act of 1900 reveals, were led to anticipate that the Fleet,
created by the sacrifice of so much treasure, would not only
guarantee their shores against aggression, but would give absolute
protection to their maritime and colonial interests, and would,
eventually, pay for itself. The time will come when they will
recognise that from the first they have been hoodwinked and
deceived by those in authority over them. It may be that German
statesmen, and the Emperor himself, were themselves deceived by
the very brilliance of the dreams of world power which they
entertained and by the conception which they had formed of the
lack of virility, sagacity and prescience of those responsible for the
fortunes of other countries, and of Great Britain in particular.
German Navy Acts were passed in full confidence that during the
period when they were being carried into effect the rest of the world
would stand still, lost in admiration of Germany's culture and
Germany's power. The mass of the German people were unwilling
converts to the new gospel. They had to be convinced of the wisdom
of the new policy. For this purpose a Press Bureau was established.
Throughout the German States this organisation fostered, through
the official and semi-official Press, feelings of antagonism and hatred
towards other countries, and towards England and the United States
especially, because these two countries were Germany's most
serious rivals in the commercial markets of the world, and also
possessed sea-power superior to her own.
It is interesting to recall in proof of this dual aim of German policy
the remarks of von Edelsheim, a member of the German General
Staff, in a pamphlet entitled "Operationen Ubersee."[2]
The author, after first pointing out the possibility of invading
England, turned his attention to the United States.[3] His remarks
are so interesting in view of the activity of German agents on the
other side of the Atlantic after the outbreak of war, that it is perhaps
excusable to quote at some length this explanation by a member of
the German General Staff of how the German Fleet was to be used
against the United States as an extension of the power of the huge
German Army.
"The possibility must be taken into account that the fleet of the
United States will at first not venture into battle, but that it will
withdraw into fortified harbours, in order to wait for a
favourable opportunity of achieving minor successes. Therefore
it is clear that naval action alone will not be decisive against the
United States, but that combined action of army and navy will
be required. Considering the great extent of the United States,
the conquest of the country by an army of invasion is not
possible. But there is every reason to believe that victorious
enterprises on the Atlantic coast, and the conquest of the most
important arteries through which imports and exports pass, will
create such an unbearable state of affairs in the whole country
that the Government will readily offer acceptable conditions in
order to obtain peace.
"If Germany begins preparing a fleet of transports and troops
for landing purposes at the moment when the battle fleet
steams out of our harbours, we may conclude that operations
on the American soil can begin after about four weeks, and it
cannot be doubted that the United States will not be able to
oppose to us within that time an army equivalent to our own.
"At present the regular army of the United States amounts to
65,000 men, of whom only 30,000 could be disposed of. Of
these at least 10,000 are required for watching the Indian
territories and for guarding the fortifications on the sea coast.
Therefore only about 20,000 men of the regular army are ready
for war. Besides, about 100,000 militia are in existence, of
whom the larger part did not come up when they were called
out during the last war. Lastly, the militia is not efficient; it is
partly armed with muzzle-loaders, and its training is worse than
its armament.
"As an operation by surprise against America is impossible, on
account of the length of time during which transports are on the
way, only the landing can be affected by surprise. Nevertheless,
stress must be laid on the fact that the rapidity of the invasion
will considerably facilitate victory against the United States,
owing to the absence of methodical preparation for mobilization,
owing to the inexperience of the personnel, and owing to the
weakness of the regular army.
"In order to occupy permanently a considerable part of the
United States, and to protect our lines of operation so as to
enable us to fight successfully against all the forces which that
country, in the course of time, can oppose to us, considerable
forces would be required. Such an operation would be greatly
hampered by the fact that it would require a second passage of
the transport fleet in order to ship the necessary troops that
long distance. However, it seems questionable whether it would
be advantageous to occupy a great stretch of country for a
considerable time. The Americans will not feel inclined to
conclude peace because one or two provinces are occupied by
an army of invasion, but because of the enormous, material
losses which the whole country will suffer if the Atlantic harbour
towns, in which the threads of the whole prosperity of the
United States are concentrated, are torn away from them one
after the other.
"Therefore the task of the fleet would be to undertake a series
of large landing operations, through which we are able to take
several of these important and wealthy towns within a brief
space of time. By interrupting their communications, by
destroying all buildings serving the State commerce and the
defence, by taking away all material for war and transport, and,
lastly, by levying heavy contributions, we should be able to
inflict damage on the United States.
"For such enterprises a smaller military force will suffice.
Nevertheless, the American defence will find it difficult to
undertake a successful enterprise against that kind of warfare.
Though an extremely well-developed railway system enables
them to concentrate troops within a short time on the different
points on the coast, the concentration of the troops and the
time which is lost until it is recognised which of the many
threatened points of landing will really be utilised will, as a rule,
make it possible for the army of invasion to carry out its
operation with success under the co-operation of the fleet at the
point chosen. The corps landed can either take the offensive
against gathering hostile forces or withdraw to the transports in
order to land at another place."
"Up to the end of the last century our Navy enjoyed a peace
routine. We maintained squadrons all over the world, and the
pick of our personnel was to be found anywhere but in home
waters. The Mediterranean claimed the pick of both our ships
and men. Here naval life was one long holiday. The routine was
to lay in harbour for nine months out of the year. About July the
whole fleet would congregate at Malta for the summer's cruise.
Sometimes it would be east of Malta, taking in the Grecian
Archipelago and the Holy Land; at others it would be west,
visiting the French and Italian ports, paying a visit to the Rock,
and then home to Malta for another long rest.
"Preparation for war was never thought of. Why should it be?
The French Navy had no aggressive designs, and was much
below our own, both in material strength and in personnel,
while the Russian Navy was partly confined in the Black Sea, the
other part being in the Baltic. And so we, both officers and men,
set out to have a good time. Our ships were kept up to yacht-
like perfection as regards their paintwork, while their bright
work shone like gold, and the road to promotion lay not through
professional efficiency, but the state of cleanliness and
splendour of one's ship. All kinds of drills and evolutions were
devised, not because of their war value, but because they had a
competitive value, and so ship could be pitted against ship and
an element of sport introduced.
"There was nothing really wrong in all this. The British Navy was
there to maintain for us our title of 'Mistress of the Seas,' and as
no other nation apparently wished to challenge our title, there
was nothing to do but pass away the time as pleasantly as
possible; when the Navy was called on to perform any task it
carried it through with vigour, valour, and efficiency, and
immediately settled down again."[4]
This regime came to an end soon after Grand Admiral von Tirpitz
became German Naval Secretary towards the end of the nineteenth
century. He set the navies of the world a new model. He determined
to take advantage of the easy-going spirit which animated the
pleasant relations then existing between the great fleets. There was
to be nothing pleasant about the German Fleet. It was to be a
strenuous agent of Germany's aggressive aims. In the organisation
of German sea-power new principles found expression. In home
waters and abroad the German Navy was always ready instantly for
war. The screw was applied gradually stage by stage. Under the
German Navy Act of 1912 this aggressive sea policy found its
ultimate expression: it was proposed to keep always on a war
footing nearly four-fifths of the ships in northern waters, while at the
same time the squadrons abroad were to be greatly increased in
strength. Happily, owing to Lord Fisher's foresight and strategical
ability, the British Navy was enabled step by step to respond to each
and every measure taken by Germany. He created for us a Grand
Fleet and when hostilities broke out that fleet took up its war
stations and denied to the main forces of Germany the use of any
and every sea.
German policy operated as a tonic, though not to the same extent,
on the other great fleets of the world. In the summer of 1914
Germany discovered that every anticipation upon which her foreign,
naval and military policies had been based had been falsified by
events. In particular, in adding to her strength at sea and on land,
she had rendered herself weak by creating enemies east and west.
Her navy, which was to have engaged in a victorious campaign
against the greatest naval power of the world in isolation—the rest
of the world watching the inevitable downfall of the Mistress of the
Seas with approval—found arrayed against it not the British fleet
only, but the fleets of France and Russia in Europe and the Navy of
Japan in the Far East.
In studying, therefore, the history of the naval development of
Germany, and contrasting the high hopes which inspired the naval
movement with the events which occurred on the outbreak of war,
and in subsequent months, one is led to wonder whether, after all,
the romance of the German Navy will not be regarded in the future,
by the German people at least, rather as a great and costly tragedy.
FOOTNOTES:
[1] "German Sea-Power, Its Rise, Progress and Economic Basis,"
by Archibald Hurd and Henry Castle (1913, London, John Murray,
10s. 6d.).
[2] "Modern Germany" (Smith Elder, 1912).
[3] Germans always assumed that they could attack the United
States without intervention on our part, just as they assumed that
they could engage in war with us without becoming involved with
the United States. They believed that Germany would fight both
countries in turn—and victoriously.
[4] "The British Navy from Within" by "Ex-Royal Navy" (Hodder &
Stoughton).
CHAPTER II
The First German Fleet
In one of the window niches on the ground floor of the Military
Museum (Zeughaus) at Berlin lies an old and dilapidated 8-pounder
gun. In its deep and disfiguring coat of rust it is an inconspicuous
object, and, amid that rich and varied collection of artillery from all
the ages, the eye of the casual visitor will not rest upon it for more
than a disparaging moment. And yet few of the treasures of the
museum have a more interesting history to tell, for it is the sole
remaining relic of the first serious experiment in naval and colonial
policy ever made by a German ruler. On an elevation rising from the
beach of Cape Three Points, on the Gold Coast, now British territory,
are still to be seen the crumbling ruins of the fort of Gross-
Friedrichsburg, built there by the Elector of Brandenburg in 1681,
and when the German corvette Sophie visited the spot, with pious
purpose, in 1884, this corroded gun was unearthed from beneath
the weeds and brushwood that have overgrown the decayed
ramparts.
Frederick William, the Great Elector, has been exemplary for many of
his successors. Frederick the Great rightly considered him the most
able of the previous Princes of the house of Hohenzollern, while the
present German Emperor has made a special cult of his memory,
and assuredly had a symbolic intention when he appeared at a
fancy-dress ball disguised as the first of his ancestors who equipped
a fleet and founded a colony.
When Frederick William was called to the Brandenburg throne in
1641 at the age of twenty, Germany was still in the throes of the
Thirty Years' War, and no part of the Empire had suffered more than
his Electorate from the consequences of that unspeakable calamity.
Of all the causes which have contributed to impede the normal
development of the painstaking and industrious German race, none
had so malign an influence as that stupendous conflict. It not merely
delayed civilization, but over vast tracts of country positively
exterminated it. At the close of the war many once flourishing towns
had absolutely disappeared from the face of the earth, and where
formerly a numerous peasantry had tilled its fertile fields a howling
wilderness extended in all directions as far as the eye could reach.
In North Germany to-day an apparently purposeless pond, or a
detached clump of venerable trees, still shows where once a village
stood, and bears mute witness to the ruthless barbarity with which
the religious partition of Central Europe was brought about.
When an end was put to the bloodshed and rapine by the Peace of
Westphalia (1648), the population of Germany had been reduced to
one half—in some districts to one tenth—of its former dimensions.
Many portions of the Empire are even to-day not so thickly inhabited
as they were before the war. Industry and commerce had migrated
to England, France, and Holland; and Leipzig and Frankfort were the
only German towns that had retained any trade worthy of mention.
The Hansa, with its fleets of warships and merchantmen, was but a
memory of the past. Königsberg had no longer a ship of its own; the
trade of Dantzig and Stettin was almost entirely carried in foreign
bottoms; and even Hamburg, which directly had been but
comparatively little touched by the thirty years of chaos and turmoil,
and had benefited from its exceptional connection with England, was
left commercially crippled. At a Hanse Parliament held in 1630, only
Hamburg, Lübeck, and Bremen were represented. Germany had
been so drained of money that barter had generally taken the place
of purchase by coin; wages were paid in the products of labour,
grain, ore, and manufactured goods, and even state officials in some
cases received their salaries in kind.
Even before the war broke out, Brandenburg, a country of barren
soil and few natural resources, had stood far below the rest of
Germany both materially and intellectually. In 1600 the twin towns,
Berlin and Cöln, which faced one another from opposite banks of the
Spree, and have since been merged to form the colossal capital of
the new Empire, contained together no more than 14,000 souls.
Brandenburg and Frankfort-on-Oder each had a population of
10,000. Only two other towns, Stendal and Salzwedel, could boast
more than 5,000 inhabitants. And it was of the mere ruins of this
country that Frederick William formed the foundation-stone of the
Prussian Kingdom and of the German Empire of to-day.
If the Thirty Years' War had produced any form of national
consolidation, if it had increased the authority of the Empire or
resulted in the absorption of the smaller States by the larger, that
would at least have been some compensation to Germany for its
long and terrible ordeal. But exactly the opposite was the case. The
war ceased simply because no one had the will or the strength to
continue it, and a miserable compromise was the result. The only
gainers were the Princes, who, as the wielders of the armed forces,
had been able to enhance their power, and now acquired a larger
measure of independence in their relationships to the Emperor. Their
number remained legion. In the Germany mapped out by the
Westphalian negotiators there were eight electors, sixty-nine
spiritual and ninety-six temporal Princes, sixty-one imperial towns,
and a multitude of Counts and Barons exercising various degrees of
sovereign power.
Frederick William's claim to the title "Great," which was bestowed
upon him by his own generation, has been contested, but may be
allowed to pass. As military leader, diplomatist, organizer, and
administrator, he certainly had unusual gifts. Above all, he excelled
in duplicity and treachery. The most eminent living German historian
has said of him that "both in internal and external politics he acted
with an unscrupulousness so manifest that it cannot be palliated,"
and can find no better excuse for his many deeds of "faithlessness"
and "double-dealing" than that, in this respect, he was merely "the
master of the diplomatic art of his day." The Elector was actuated
solely by his own personal and dynastic interests, and was utterly
devoid of "German" patriotism, for in return for the liberal subsidies
on which he prospered, he undertook, in a secret treaty, to support
the candidature of the French King or Dauphin for the Imperial
German throne, and he was mainly responsible for the truce which
left Strasburg in French hands for nearly two centuries. During the
incessant wars which filled up most of his reign he fought both with
and against every other belligerent. His sword was always at the
disposal of the highest bidder, either of hard cash or of territorial
extension, and by adroit choice of the moment for changing sides he
generally made a profitable bargain. True, he was obliged to restore
the western portion of Pomerania which he had conquered from the
Swedes, but he obtained a much more important acquisition—the
recognition of his full sovereignty in what is now East Prussia.
That region had been wrested from the Slavs by the German orders
of chivalry, founded at the time of the Crusades, and had
subsequently become an evangelical duchy, ruled by a junior branch
of the house of Hohenzollern, as a fief of the Kingdom of Poland. On
the extinction of the ducal line, it had reverted to the rulers of
Brandenburg, and by a timely sale of his military assistance, first to
the Swedes and then to the Poles, the Great Elector induced both to
admit his unrestricted and unqualified rights of sovereignty in the
duchy. His successor persuaded the Emperor to agree to his
assumption of the kingly title for this territory, and it is an interesting
fact—especially in view of the last development of the German
Empire, which in its present constitutional form and in much else is
dependent upon Catholic support—that this elevation was largely
brought about by the intervention of two Jesuit fathers. It was from
the Kingdom of Prussia which was thus established, and which was a
completely independent State altogether outside the competencies
of the Holy Roman Empire, that arose the Hohenzollern ascendency
in Germany, and round it that the new German Empire crystallized.
For this reason the episode is quite germane to our present purpose.
The Germans excel as diligent pupils and patient imitators, and the
Great Elector was no exception to this rule. From his fourteenth to
his eighteenth year he had been educated under the care of
Frederick Henry, the Statthalter of Holland, then the chief Sea-Power
of the world, from whom he had imbibed many ideas as to the
importance of navies, colonies, and sea-borne trade. His connection
with the Netherlands was maintained and strengthened by his
marriage with an Orange Princess, the aunt of William III. of
England, and many Dutchmen entered his service. Among them was
an ex-admiral, Gijsels by name, who assiduously kept alive the
dreams of sea-power which the Elector had brought back with him
from Holland. It was on his prompting that, in 1659, when Frederick
William was embroiled with the Swedes, and found his operations
hampered by the lack of a fleet, an enquiry as to the possibility of
remedying this deficiency was ordered by the Elector. The
investigation resulted, for the time being, only in the compilation of
a memorandum as to a "Brandenburg-Imperial admiralty," and some
fruitless attempts to obtain ships in the Netherlands.
But Gijsels' projects went far beyond a mere fleet. All the world was
then discussing the colonizing activity of the western European
States, and Frederick William's predecessor on the Electoral throne
had conceived abortive plans for founding an East Indian trading
company. What the ex-admiral proposed to the Elector in 1660 was,
that Brandenburg, Austria, and Spain should combine for the
purpose of securing a colonial ascendency, which was to be arrived
at by playing off England, France, and Holland against one another.
Negotiations to this end seem actually to have been commenced,
but they broke down over the jealous suspicions of the diplomatists
approached, and the perpetual turning of the European
kaleidoscope.
During the next fifteen years the idea of a Brandenburg navy
appears to have been allowed to sleep. In the meantime a very
remarkable book had been published, which should be mentioned
here because it contains the essential elements of the programme of
the most modern naval agitation in Germany. The author was
Johann Becher, by profession a chemist, but in his leisure a political
seer of the type of Friedrich List, whose great forerunner he was. His
work, "Political Discourse on the Causes of the Rise and Decline of
Towns and Countries," was published in 1667. Becher had travelled
much, and he wrote: