1.

Title

Assessing the Impact of Drought on Ecosystem Resilience in the Upper Tekeze Basin Using SPEI: A
Spatiotemporal Analysis

2. Introduction

2.1 Background

Drought is a complex and recurring natural phenomenon that has profound impacts on ecosystems,
water resources, and human livelihoods. It is characterized by a significant deviation from normal
precipitation levels over an extended period, leading to water scarcity and environmental stress
(Wilhite, 2000). In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of droughts have increased globally due
to climate change, posing significant challenges to ecosystems and communities, particularly in semi-
arid regions (IPCC, 2021).

The Upper Tekeze Basin, located in northern Ethiopia, is a critical watershed that supports diverse
ecosystems, including highland forests, grasslands, and agricultural lands. The basin is a vital source of
water for irrigation, hydropower, and domestic use, making it a cornerstone of regional development
(Gebremicael et al., 2013). However, the basin is highly vulnerable to drought due to its semi-arid
climate, erratic rainfall patterns, and reliance on rain-fed agriculture (Ayalew et al., 2014). Droughts in
the region have led to reduced agricultural productivity, loss of biodiversity, and increased food
insecurity, threatening the livelihoods of millions of people (Gebrehiwot et al., 2011).

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of drought and their impact on ecosystem resilience is
essential for developing effective drought mitigation and adaptation strategies. Ecosystem resilience
refers to the ability of an ecosystem to absorb disturbances, such as drought, and maintain its structure,
function, and feedbacks (Holling, 1973). In the context of the Upper Tekeze Basin, assessing ecosystem
resilience is critical for ensuring the sustainability of water resources, biodiversity, and agricultural
systems.

The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a widely used drought index that
incorporates both precipitation and temperature data, providing a comprehensive measure of water
availability (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). Unlike the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which only
considers precipitation, SPEI accounts for the effects of temperature on evapotranspiration, making it
more suitable for assessing drought under changing climatic conditions (Beguería et al., 2014). By using
SPEI, this study aims to provide a detailed analysis of drought patterns and their impact on ecosystem
resilience in the Upper Tekeze Basin.

2.2 Problem Statement

Despite the growing recognition of drought as a major environmental challenge, there is limited
understanding of its spatiotemporal dynamics and impacts on ecosystem resilience in the Upper Tekeze
Basin. Previous studies have focused on individual aspects of drought, such as meteorological or
agricultural drought, but have not comprehensively addressed the interactions between drought and
ecosystem resilience (Gebrehiwot et al., 2011; Ayalew et al., 2014). This gap in knowledge hinders the
development of effective drought mitigation and ecosystem management strategies.

The Upper Tekeze Basin is experiencing increasing drought frequency and severity, which threatens the
health of its ecosystems and the livelihoods of its inhabitants. However, the specific mechanisms
through which drought impacts ecosystem resilience remain poorly understood. For example, how do
different levels of drought severity affect vegetation health, soil moisture, and biodiversity? Which areas
and ecosystems are most vulnerable to drought impacts? Addressing these questions is critical for
informing policy decisions and resource management practices in the region.

This study seeks to fill this gap by using SPEI to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of drought and their
impact on ecosystem resilience in the Upper Tekeze Basin. By integrating climate data, remote sensing,
and GIS analysis, the study will provide a comprehensive assessment of drought-ecosystem interactions,
contributing to the development of sustainable resource management strategies.

3. Literature Review

3.1 Drought Indices

Drought indices are essential tools for quantifying and monitoring drought conditions. The Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) is one of the most widely used indices, as it is simple to calculate and interpret
(McKee et al., 1993). However, SPI only considers precipitation and does not account for the effects of
temperature on water availability. In contrast, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
(SPEI) incorporates both precipitation and temperature data, making it more suitable for assessing
drought under changing climatic conditions (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). SPEI has been successfully
applied in various regions to analyze drought patterns and their impacts on agriculture, water resources,
and ecosystems (Beguería et al., 2014).

3.2 Ecosystem Resilience

Ecosystem resilience refers to the ability of an ecosystem to absorb disturbances and maintain its
structure, function, and feedbacks (Holling, 1973). Resilience is influenced by factors such as
biodiversity, soil health, and vegetation cover (Folke et al., 2004). In the context of drought, resilient
ecosystems can recover quickly from water stress, while less resilient ecosystems may experience long-
term degradation (Scheffer et al., 2001). Remote sensing indicators, such as the Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI), are commonly used to assess ecosystem resilience by monitoring vegetation
health and productivity (Pettorelli et al., 2005).

3.3 Drought Impacts in Semi-Arid Regions

Semi-arid regions, such as the Upper Tekeze Basin, are particularly vulnerable to drought due to their
limited water resources and high climatic variability (Nicholson, 2011). Droughts in these regions can
lead to reduced agricultural productivity, loss of biodiversity, and increased soil erosion (Huang et al.,
2016). For example, in the Sahel region of Africa, prolonged droughts have caused significant declines in
vegetation cover and soil fertility, threatening food security and livelihoods (Herrmann et al., 2005).
Similar patterns have been observed in Ethiopia, where droughts have exacerbated land degradation
and water scarcity (Gebrehiwot et al., 2011).

3.4 Case Studies in Ethiopia

Several studies have examined drought patterns and impacts in Ethiopia, but few have focused on the
Upper Tekeze Basin. For example, Gebrehiwot et al. (2011) analyzed drought trends in northern Ethiopia
using SPI and found increasing drought frequency and severity over the past three decades. Similarly,
Ayalew et al. (2014) assessed the impacts of drought on agricultural productivity in the Tigray region,
highlighting the need for improved water management practices. However, these studies did not
comprehensively address the interactions between drought and ecosystem resilience, leaving a critical
gap in understanding.
3.5 Research Gaps

While previous studies have provided valuable insights into drought patterns and impacts in Ethiopia,
there is a lack of comprehensive research on the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought and its impact on
ecosystem resilience in the Upper Tekeze Basin. Specifically, there is a need for studies that integrate
climate data, remote sensing, and GIS analysis to assess drought-ecosystem interactions at multiple
scales. This study aims to address these gaps by using SPEI to analyze drought patterns and their impact
on ecosystem resilience in the Upper Tekeze Basin.

4. Methodology

4.1 Study Area

The Upper Tekeze Basin is located in northern Ethiopia, covering an area of approximately 25,000 km².
The basin is characterized by diverse ecosystems, including highland forests, grasslands, and agricultural
lands. It is a vital source of water for irrigation, hydropower, and domestic use, making it a critical region
for sustainable development (Gebremicael et al., 2013).

4.2 Data Sources

1. Climate Data: Precipitation and temperature data will be obtained from meteorological stations
and satellite sources, such as the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data
(CHIRPS) and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset.

2. Remote Sensing Data: MODIS NDVI data will be used to assess vegetation health, while Landsat
imagery will be used to analyze land cover changes. Soil moisture data will be obtained from the
Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission.

3. Ancillary Data: Topographic maps, soil types, and land use data will be obtained from
government agencies and international databases.

4.3 Data Analysis

1. SPEI Calculation: SPEI will be calculated at multiple timescales (e.g., 1, 3, 6, and 12 months)
using the R package "SPEI." The calculation will incorporate precipitation and temperature data
to provide a comprehensive measure of water availability.
 2. Spatiotemporal Analysis: Spatial and temporal trends in drought severity, frequency, and
duration will be analyzed using GIS and statistical tools. Maps and graphs will be generated to
visualize drought patterns over time.

3. Ecosystem Resilience Assessment: Resilience will be assessed using indicators such as NDVI,
land cover changes, and soil moisture dynamics. Remote sensing data will be processed and
analyzed using Google Earth Engine.

4. Correlation Analysis: The relationship between SPEI values and ecosystem resilience indicators
will be evaluated using statistical methods, such as Pearson correlation and regression analysis.
This will help identify the key drivers of ecosystem vulnerability to drought.

4.4 Tools and Software

 SPEI Calculation: Payton package "SPEI."

 GIS Analysis: ArcGIS or QGIS.

 Statistical Analysis: R or Python.

 Remote Sensing Analysis: Google Earth Engine.

 Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Reig, F., & Latorre, B. (2014). Standardized precipitation
evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: Parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools,
datasets and drought monitoring. International Journal of Climatology, 34(10), 3001-3023.

 Gebrehiwot, T., van der Veen, A., & Maathuis, B. (2011). Spatial and temporal assessment of
drought in the Northern highlands of Ethiopia. International Journal of Applied Earth
Observation and Geoinformation, 13(3), 309-321.

 Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A multiscalar drought index
sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of
Climate, 23(7), 1696-1718.

 Wilhite, D. A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: Concepts and definitions. In Drought: A Global
Assessment (pp. 3-18). Routledge.

 IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I
to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press.