Figure 2.2.

1 ECA: Recent developments

Figure 2.2.1.A. High-frequency indicators in the Russian Federation, Türkiye and Poland
Figure 2.2.1.B. New household mortgages in the Russian Federation
Figure 2.2.1.C. Inflation and monetary policy interest rates
Figure 2.2.1.D. Labor market tightness

Figure 2.2.2 ECA: Outlook

Figure 2.2.2.A. Contributions to ECA GDP growth
Figure 2.2.2.B. Russian Federation: Composition of trade
Figure 2.2.2.C. Investment and productivity
Figure 2.2.2.D. Artificial intelligence readiness

Figure 2.2.3 ECA: Risks

Figure 2.2.3.A. Geopolitical risk
Figure 2.2.3.B. Elections in ECA countries
Figure 2.2.3.C. Exports growth
Figure 2.2.3.D. Climate readiness and vulnerability
n, Türkiye and Poland
Figure 2.2.1.A. High-frequency indicators in the Russian Fe

Index, 50+ = expansion

Manufacturing PMI
55
New export orders PMI
Retail sales (RHS)
50

45

40
Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Sources: Haver Analytics; World Bank.

Note: PMI = purchasing managers’ index. Lines show average value for PMI manufacturing
three months rolling average for retail sales. Sample comprises Poland, the Russian Feder
observation is April 2024.
Note: PMI = purchasing managers’ index. Lines show average value for PMI manufacturing
three months rolling average for retail sales. Sample comprises Poland, the Russian Feder
observation is April 2024.

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n the Russian Federation, Türkiye and Poland
Percent
g PMI 18
orders PMI
RHS)
12

0
Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

ue for PMI manufacturing and new export orders, and

oland, the Russian Federation, and Türkiye. Last
 Retail s ManufactNew export orders PMI
Jan-23 5.2 50.1 46.0 50
Feb-23 5.0 50.7 46.5 50
Mar-23 5.2 50.8 47.9 50
Apr-23 5.7 50.2 49.4 50
May-23 8.0 50.6 48.3 50
Jun-23 10.3 49.7 47.6 50
Jul-23 11.3 48.5 44.8 50
Aug-23 11.2 48.3 47.2 50
Sep-23 10.6 49.3 46.8 50
Oct-23 10.1 48.9 46.6 50
Nov-23 10.0 49.9 48.8 50
Dec-23 9.3 49.8 47.9 50
Jan-24 8.6 49.6 47.1 50
Feb-24 10.3 50.9 47.8 50
Mar-24 11.7 51.2 49.3 50
Apr-24 49.9 47.5 50
Figure 2.2.1.B. New household mortgages in the Russian Fe

Rubles, billion
1200 Number of mortgages (RH
Value of mortages

800

400

0
May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22

May-23

Source: Central Bank of Russia.

Note: Bars show monthly number of household mortgages, while line shows monthly volum
May 2024.
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n the Russian Federation
Thousands
gages (RHS) 300
es

200

100
May-22

May-23

May-240

ne shows monthly volume in rubles. Last observation is

 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19
Number 111.6 87.2 98.1 103.2 110.2 110.9
Value of246.3 192.4 218.1 227.2 242 247.3
 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
124.1 123.2 156.9 83.6 115.8 133.3 97.6 93.3 127.3
282.1 284.7 370.1 200.7 283.2 329.9 218 215.2 301
 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
155.9 164.3 199.1 212.6 188.7 211.8 95.2 145.2 178.4
383.9 414.3 504.6 546.7 492 560.7 260 404 501.6
May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
191.7 148.7 179 151.7 151.1 158 162 157.8 192.7
551.4 434.1 545.5 433.3 439.3 477.4 501.5 510.8 641.6
 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22
95.1 135.9 163.1 49.6 36.8 65.7 91.9 122.2 136.9
327.1 477.2 521.5 161.9 140.2 253.8 341.9 458.2 518.4
 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23
127.6 129 176.5 77.4 114.9 154.2 153.6 158.1 168
448.5 471 697.3 281.7 422.6 569.6 566.5 580.6 627
 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24
170.8 216.3 238.4 200.5 189.3 197 76 95.7 117.2
646.8 849.3 955.4 769.9 726.3 785.6 271.9 333.1 447.5
May-24
123.4
466
Figure 2.2.1.C. Inflation and monetary policy interest rates

Basis points
600 Policy rate Inflation (RH

400

200

0
Nov-20

May-21

Nov-21

May-22

Nov-22

May-23

Sources: Haver Analytics; World Bank.

Note: Lines show cumulative change in ECA median policy rate and median headline rate s
includes 23 countries. Last observation is May 2024.
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y interest rates
Percent
nflation (RHS) 15

10

0
Nov-22

May-23

Nov-23

May-24

nd median headline rate since November 2020. Sample

 Policy raInflation (RHS)
Nov-20 0.0 0.0
Dec-20 0.0 0.0
Jan-21 0.0 0.4
Feb-21 0.0 0.8
Mar-21 12.5 1.4
Apr-21 37.5 2.2
May-21 37.5 2.5
Jun-21 62.5 2.4
Jul-21 150.0 2.9
Aug-21 150.0 3.5
Sep-21 212.5 4.5
Oct-21 280.0 5.8
Nov-21 280.0 5.6
Dec-21 342.5 5.7
Jan-22 417.5 6.1
Feb-22 430.0 6.2
Mar-22 505.0 8.2
Apr-22 505.0 10.3
May-22 505.0 11.3
Jun-22 505.0 11.7
Jul-22 517.5 12.4
Aug-22 530.0 12.9
Sep-22 542.5 13.4
Oct-22 555.0 13.0
Nov-22 505.0 13.2
Dec-22 517.5 12.4
Jan-23 517.5 12.6
Feb-23 505.0 12.8
Mar-23 517.5 10.6
Apr-23 517.5 8.4
May-23 530.0 7.8
Jun-23 480.0 6.7
Jul-23 530.0 6.1
Aug-23 580.0 6.0
Sep-23 580.0 4.5
Oct-23 580.0 3.5
Nov-23 555.0 2.8
Dec-23 517.5 2.5
Jan-24 480.0 1.8
Feb-24 480.0 1.7
Mar-24 442.5 1.4
Apr-24 417.5 1.1
May-24 367.5
Figure 2.2.1.D. Labor market tightness
Percent Real wages growth
20 Nominal wages growth
Unemployment rate (RH
16
12
8
4
0
-4
17Q1
17Q3
18Q1
18Q3
19Q1
19Q3
20Q1
20Q3
21Q1
21Q3
22Q1
22Q3

Sources: Haver Analytics; World Bank.

Note: Median values of year-on-year change in wages and unemployment rate for 16 count
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growth Percent
ges growth 10
ent rate (RHS)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
21Q1
21Q3
22Q1
22Q3
23Q1
23Q3
24Q1

loyment rate for 16 countries. Last observation is 2024Q1.

 Real wagNominalUnemployment rate (RHS)
17Q1 2.1 7.9 9.4
17Q2 3.4 9.9 8.4
17Q3 3.5 7.4 8.3
17Q4 3.5 7.3 6.8
18Q1 6.7 8.5 8.4
18Q2 5.5 8.9 7.4
18Q3 4.7 9.1 7.3
18Q4 5.5 7.7 7.7
19Q1 5.7 9.5 7.7
19Q2 5.3 9.6 5.4
19Q3 5.5 9.9 5.2
19Q4 6.9 11.4 5.2
20Q1 6.1 10.1 5.5
20Q2 1.9 3.6 6.7
20Q3 4.2 7.3 6.3
20Q4 5.2 7.9 6.3
21Q1 3.8 6.6 7.0
21Q2 6.5 11.3 6.6
21Q3 3.8 9.0 6.2
21Q4 3.7 10.6 5.9
22Q1 2.9 12.8 5.9
22Q2 -1.1 12.9 5.4
22Q3 -1.5 14.0 5.3
22Q4 -1.6 14.1 5.5
23Q1 -0.6 13.4 5.7
23Q2 3.8 15.4 5.3
23Q3 6.1 14.8 5.2
23Q4 9.5 15.3 5.4
24Q1 11.8 16.6
Figure 2.2.2.A. Contributions to ECA GDP growth

Percentage points
TUR RUS PO
Others ECA GDP (RHS)
3
2
1
0
-1
Growth Growth Growth Growth
revision revision
2024f 2025f

Source: World Bank.

Note: f = forecast; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; POL = Poland; RUS = Russian Federat
Ukraine. Bars show contributions of various economies to ECA GDP growth and to ECA GD
with the January 2024 Global Economic Prospects report. Diamonds show ECA GDP grow
Note: f = forecast; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; POL = Poland; RUS = Russian Federat
Ukraine. Bars show contributions of various economies to ECA GDP growth and to ECA GD
with the January 2024 Global Economic Prospects report. Diamonds show ECA GDP grow

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 rowth

Percent
POL UKR
RHS)
3
2
1
0
-1
th Growth Growth
revision
2025f 2026f

RUS = Russian Federation; TUR = Türkiye; UKR =

DP growth and to ECA GDP growth revision compared
ds show ECA GDP growth and ECA GDP growth revision.
 2024f 2025f 2026f
Growth Growth rGrowth Growth rGrowth
TUR 0.7 0.0 0.8 -0.1 1.0
RUS 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4
POL 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4
UKR 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
Others 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.9
ECA GDP 3.0 0.6 2.9 0.2 2.8
Figure 2.2.2.B. Russian Federation: Composition of trade

Percent CHN AE
yuan + others EUR + USD
100
75
50
25
0
2019- 2022 2019- 2022 2019- 2022
21 21 21 23
Exports Imports Exports
Trade in goods Invoice

Sources: Central Bank of Russia; WITS (database); World Bank.

Note: AE = advanced economies; CHN = China; EUR = euro; ROW = rest of the world; US
Russian Federation’s trade in goods by partner country and the breakdown of currency use
and services, reflecting the main currencies associated with the category of “unfriendly” cou
As Russia hasn’t released bilateral trade data since 2022, bilateral imports (exports) of Rus
mirror exports (imports).
Note: AE = advanced economies; CHN = China; EUR = euro; ROW = rest of the world; US
Russian Federation’s trade in goods by partner country and the breakdown of currency use
and services, reflecting the main currencies associated with the category of “unfriendly” cou
As Russia hasn’t released bilateral trade data since 2022, bilateral imports (exports) of Rus
mirror exports (imports).

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sition of trade

AE ROW
EUR + USD ruble

2019- 2022- 2019- 2022-

21 23 21 23
Exports Imports
Invoice of trade

W = rest of the world; USD = U.S. dollar. Bars show

eakdown of currency used for transactions in both goods
tegory of “unfriendly” countries, as designated by Russia.
imports (exports) of Russia’s trading partners are used to
 CHN AE ROW yuan + ot
Trade inExports 2019-21 17.0 50.5 32.5
2022 22.0 43.4 34.7
Imports 2019-21 24.3 49.8 25.9
2022 22.0 43.4 34.7
Invoice oExports 2019-21 1.2
2022-23 19.0
Imports 2019-21 3.6
2022-23 25.6
EUR + Uruble

84.1 14.7
47.6 33.4
67.3 29.1
45.3 29.1
Figure 2.2.2.C. Investment and productivity
Percent ECA EMDEs
10
8
6
4
2
0
Investment

Investment
Productivity

2000-10 2011-23 Productivity

Sources: International Labour Organization; World Bank.

Note: f = forecast; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; EMDEs = emerging market and develo
diamonds show average annual growth rates of investment and productivity (output per wo
2017 international dollars at purchasing power parity) for ECA and EMDEs, respectively.
Note: f = forecast; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; EMDEs = emerging market and develo
diamonds show average annual growth rates of investment and productivity (output per wo
2017 international dollars at purchasing power parity) for ECA and EMDEs, respectively.

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MDEs

Investment
Productivity

2011-23 2024-26f

rging market and developing economies. Bars and

oductivity (output per worker, measured in GDP constant
EMDEs, respectively.
 ECA EMDEs
2000-10Investme 7.9 9.4
Productiv 5.1 2.4
2011-23Investme 3.5 4.8
Productiv 2.3 1.1
2024-26fInvestme 4.0 4.4
Figure 2.2.2.D. Artificial intelligence readiness

Index
ECA EMDEs
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CA SCC EE WBK

Sources: Oxford Insights; World Bank.

Note: CA = Central Asia; CE = Central Europe; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; EE = East
market and developing economies; SCC = South Caucasus; WBK = Western Balkans. Bars
subregion on Oxford Economics’ 2023 Government AI Readiness Index. Red and orange li
and EMDEs, respectively. Score ranges from 0 to 100, with a higher score pointing to bette
minimum-maximum values for the countries in the subregions.
Note: CA = Central Asia; CE = Central Europe; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; EE = East
market and developing economies; SCC = South Caucasus; WBK = Western Balkans. Bars
subregion on Oxford Economics’ 2023 Government AI Readiness Index. Red and orange li
and EMDEs, respectively. Score ranges from 0 to 100, with a higher score pointing to bette
minimum-maximum values for the countries in the subregions.

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MDEs

E WBK CE

Central Asia; EE = Eastern Europe; EMDEs = emerging

= Western Balkans. Bars show the average score of each
Index. Red and orange lines show the average for ECA
er score pointing to better readiness. Whiskers show
 Score ECA EMDEs max min
CA 39.3 47.8 39.3 9.3 8.1
SCC 44.9 47.8 39.3 3.3 3.6
EE 45.2 47.8 39.3 8.1 6.0
WBK 45.6 47.8 39.3 10.0 9.1
CE 58.7 47.8 39.3 4.4 6.4
Figure 2.2.3.A. Geopolitical risk
I Index
RUS UKR World (RH
n
d 4
e
x 3

0
2000-21 2022 2023

Sources: Caldara and Iacoviello (2022); World Bank.

Note: RUS = Russian Federation; UKR = Ukraine. Columns show the average value of cou
(GPR) for each period. Diamonds show the average of the GPR world historical index. Last
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 World (RHS) Index
160

120

80

40

0
2023 2024

the average value of country's geopolitical risk index

orld historical index. Last observation is May 2024.
 2000-21 2022 2023 2024
RUS 0.7 3.7 1.9 1.7
UKR 0.1 3.6 1.8 1.5
World ( 82.1 112.9 99.6 121.7
Figure 2.2.3.B. Elections in ECA countries

Number of countries with elections

Legislative / parliamentary
Presidential
10 Presidential and legislative / parli

0
2023 2024 2025

Source: World Bank.

Note: Bars show total number of countries with elections for each year.
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ections
tary

ative / parliamentary

2025 2026

year.
 2023 2024 2025 2026
President 1 3 2 1
Legislati 5 3 4 5
President 2 3 0 2
Figure 2.2.3.C. Exports growth

Percent
2010-19 2020 2021 2
30

20

10

-10

-20

-30
CA CE EE SCC

Sources: WDI (database); World Bank.

Note: CA = Central Asia; CE = Central Europe; EE = Eastern Europe; SCC = South Caucas
Bars show the annual growth rates of exports of goods and services (constant 2015 US$) f
bars show the average annual growth rates for the period 2010-2019.
Note: CA = Central Asia; CE = Central Europe; EE = Eastern Europe; SCC = South Caucas
Bars show the annual growth rates of exports of goods and services (constant 2015 US$) f
bars show the average annual growth rates for the period 2010-2019.

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 2021 2022 2023

E SCC WBK

pe; SCC = South Caucasus; WBK = Western Balkans.

es (constant 2015 US$) for each subregion. Dark blue
19.
 2010-19 2020 2021 2022 2023
CA 2.8 -13.8 5.9 12.5 11.8
CE 7.1 -4.4 11.4 8.9 -1.5
EE 0.2 -5.3 0.0 -25.7 12.7
SCC 5.5 -19.7 10.9 18.8 6.0
WBK 8.5 -11.0 23.0 14.6 1.8
Figure 2.2.3.D. Climate readiness and vulnerability
Index
0.60
POL RUS GE
KAZ ARM
Readiness

0.50 TUR HRV

BLR MKD
MNE
BGR UKR MDA
KGZ AZE
0.40 UZB ALB
BIH

TJK
0.30
0.30 0.35 0.40
Vulnerability

Sources: Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative; World Bank.

Note: ALB = Albania; ARM = Armenia; AZE = Azerbaijan; BLR = Belarus; BIH = Bosnia and
ECA = Europe and Central Asia; GEO = Georgia; HRV = Croatia; KAZ = Kazakhstan; KGZ
Moldova; MNE = Montenegro; MKD = North Macedonia; POL = Poland; ROU = Romania; R
= Serbia; TJK = Tajikistan; TUR = Türkiye; UKR = Ukraine; UZB = Uzbekistan. Scatter plot
and readiness components of the ND-GAIN index for 2021. Vertical and horizontal lines are
vulnerability and readiness components for ECA.
Note: ALB = Albania; ARM = Armenia; AZE = Azerbaijan; BLR = Belarus; BIH = Bosnia and
ECA = Europe and Central Asia; GEO = Georgia; HRV = Croatia; KAZ = Kazakhstan; KGZ
Moldova; MNE = Montenegro; MKD = North Macedonia; POL = Poland; ROU = Romania; R
= Serbia; TJK = Tajikistan; TUR = Türkiye; UKR = Ukraine; UZB = Uzbekistan. Scatter plot
and readiness components of the ND-GAIN index for 2021. Vertical and horizontal lines are
vulnerability and readiness components for ECA.

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erability

GEO
ARM
HRV
MKD
MDA
ZE SRB
ZB ALB ROU

JK

0.40 0.45
erability Index

elarus; BIH = Bosnia and Herzegovina; BGR = Bulgaria;

KAZ = Kazakhstan; KGZ = Kyrgyz Republic; MDA =
oland; ROU = Romania; RUS = Russian Federation; SRB
Uzbekistan. Scatter plot shows the climate vulnerability
al and horizontal lines are the median values of
 Vulnerabi
Readiness median ECA vulnerability
POL 0.31 0.54 0.37 0.3
KAZ 0.32 0.52 0.37 0.6
RUS 0.33 0.55 median ECA readiness
KGZ 0.33 0.40 0.3 0.47
BLR 0.33 0.49 0.5 0.47
BGR 0.34 0.47
BIH 0.35 0.37
TUR 0.35 0.48
UKR 0.36 0.43
UZB 0.36 0.41
MNE 0.37 0.47
ARM 0.37 0.51
TJK 0.37 0.32
MKD 0.38 0.47
AZE 0.38 0.45
ALB 0.4 0.41
ROU 0.4 0.44
GEO 0.4 0.57
MDA 0.41 0.44
SRB 0.41 0.44
HRV 0.38 0.49
nerability