3 Probability

Candidates should be able to:

Estimate the chance/probability for an event to occur.

Use logical operators to calculate the probability by establishing a relationship between two
events.

Distinguish between dependent and independent events.

Represent events, outcomes, and their respective probabilities using a tree diagram.

Definitions
It is a way of describing the likelihood of different
Probability possible outcomes occurring as a result of some
experiment.

An outcome or a collection of outcomes of

Event
interest.

Experiment/Trial An action that has possible outcomes.

The set of all possible outcomes of an

Sample Space
experiment.

Number of ways the event can occur over the

Theoretical Probability
total number of possibilities.

Number of times the event occurred over total

Empirical Probability
number of trials.

Two events are called mutually exclusive if they

Mutually Exclusive
cannot occur at the same time.

Two events are said to be exhaustive if they make

Exhaustive Events
up the entire possibility space.

Events that influence the probability of each

Dependent Events (Conditional Probability)
other’s outcomes.

Events that do not influence the probability of

Independent Events
each other’s outcomes.

3 Probability 1
 3.1 Probability
3.1.1 Introduction
Probability is used to describe the likelihood of different possible outcomes occurring as a result of
some experiment. For example, tossing a coin where the outcome would be heads or tails, or
rolling a dice where the outcomes would be any of the numbers from the range 1 to 6 for the dice.

(0 ≤ P (X) ≤ 1): It is equal to zero if the event is impossible and one if the event is certain.

∑ P(X)= 1: The sum of probabilities of all the outcomes of an experiment is always 1.
​

n(X)
Expressed formally, P(X) = n(A) : The number of outcomes of interest (X) over the total
​

outcomes in a sample space. For example, the probability of getting a Head in the next coin
toss is:

Important Note

3 Probability 2
 In an Equally Likely Outcome case, all outcomes of an experiment have the
same probability.

The list of outcomes in which you are interested is called an event. A general rule for the
probability of an event (A) is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes making up A.

For example,

The numbers 1, 2, ..., 7 are written on separate cards. The cards are shuffled and the top one is
turned over. If we have to calculate the probability that the number on this card is prime, the
sample space would be {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}. As each outcome is equally likely and has probability
1
7
​.

Let Abe the event that the card turned over is prime. Then A = {2, 3, 5, 7}.
1 1 1 1
P (A)= Sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in A = 7
​ + 7
​ + 7
​ + 7
​ = 74 .
​

3.2 Probability
3.2.1 Logical Operators
AND (A ∩ B): This implies intersection of the two events. Multiplication tool in Mathematics
is used in this case.

OR (A ∪ B) : This implies union of the two events. Addition tool in Mathematics is used in this
case.

NOT: Also known as Complement of event Ai.e. implies everything but A. Tool of Subtraction
is used in this case.

Important Note
Probability of an event not happening is 1 minus probability of that event
happening i.e. P (A) = 1 – P (A′ ).

3.2.2 Addition Rule

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B) (Not mutually exclusive events)
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) (Mutually exclusive events)

3 Probability 3
 3.2.3 Useful Relationships
(A ∩ B) = (B ∩ A)
ONLY A: (A ∩ B′ ) = (A ∪ B) – B OR A − (A ∩ B)
NEITHER A NOR B: (A ∪ B)′ = (A′ ∩ B′ ) OR 1 – (A ∪ B)
De Morgan’s Law: A′ ∩ B′ = (A ∪ B)′ & A′ ∪ B′ = (A ∩ B)′ 
Exhaustive Events: P (A ∪ B) = 1~ two events that make up the entire possibility space.
Mutually Exclusive Events: P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)~ two events that cannot occur at
the same time.

For example, in figure (a), the events Aand Bare mutually exclusive as the sum of their individual
probabilities is equal to the probability that either Aor Boccurs. But in figure (b), events Aand B
are not mutually exclusive because of the additional term i.e, the probability of Aand Boccurring
together.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

3.3 Dependent Events

3.3.1 Conditional Probability/ Dependent Events
Conditional probability is a measure of the probability of an event occurring, given that another
event has already occurred. It is written as:

3 Probability 4
 Conditional probability is also used to check whether the two events are dependent i.e., they
influence the probability of each others outcomes. If P(B) is affected by the occurrence of event A,
so we say that B is dependent on A.
P (A∩B )
P (A∣B)= P (B ) 
​

P (B ∩A)
P (B∣A)= P (A) 
​

As P (A ∩ B) = P (B ∩ A),therefore P (A∣B) × P (B) = P (B∣A) × P (A)

3.4 Independent Events

Two events are said to be independent if they do not influence the probability of each other’s
outcomes.

When A and B are independent events, then,

P (A∣B) = P (A) & P (B∣A) = P (B),

∴ P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)

3 Probability 5
 This is the Multiplication law for independent events which can be further extended to more than
two events:

P (A1 ∩ A2 ∩ … . ∩ An ) = P (A1 ) × P (A2 ) × … .. × P (An )

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

Skill Check 1

Three people in an office decide to enter a marathon race. The respective probabilities that
they will complete the marathon are 0.9, 0.7and 0.6.Assume that their performances are
independent, find the probability that

a. They all complete the marathon.

b. At least two complete the marathon.

Solution

Answer a.

Let the three people be A, Band C with their probabilities to complete the marathon be
0.9, 0.7 and 0.6respectively.
P (all complete the marathon)= P (A ∩ B ∩ C)
= P (A) × P (B) × P (C)

= 0.9 × 0.7 × 0.6

= 0.378

Answer b.

P (at least 2) = P (≥ 2) = P (either 2 or 3)~ [AB or BC or AC or ABC]

= P (A ∩ B) + P (B ∩ C) + P (A ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B ∩ C)
= (0.9 × 0.7) + (0.7 × 0.6) + (0.9 × 0.6) + 0.378
=0.63 + 0.42 + 0.54 + 0.378
=1.968
 

3.5 Probability Tree Diagram

3 Probability 6
 It enumerates all possible outcomes of an experiment. It can be drawn for both dependent and
independent events. For dependent events one event must follow the other while for independent
events number of events as well as outcomes must be limited in order to make a tree diagram.

3 Probability 7
 Skill Check 2

Rebecca has a bag with four pears and seven oranges. She takes out three fruits from the
bag one after another without replacement.

Draw a tree diagram showing the probabilities and

Find the probability that:

a. She picks two pears and one orange in no particular order

b. The third fruit picked is an Orange

c. The first fruit picked is a Pear given that the third fruit taken is an Orange

Solution

Using the notation:

O: the fruit picked is an Orange

P: the fruit picked is a Pear

n(A)
P (A) = n(ξ)
​ where ξis the universal set
4 7
P (O) = 1−11 = ​

11
​

3 Probability 8
 a. P (2 Pears & 1 Orange) = P (P1 P2 O3 ) + P (P1 O2 O3 ) + (O1 P2 O3 ) ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

4 3
= ( 11 ​ × 10
​ × 97 ) + ( 11
​
4
​× 7
10
​ × 93 ) + ( 11
​
7
× ​
4
10
​ × 93 ) = ​
14
55
 ​

b. P (third fruit Orange) = P (P1 P2 O3 ) + P (P1 O2 O3 ) + P (O1 P2 O3 ) + P (O1 O2 O3 )

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

4 3
= ( 11 ​ × 10
​ × 97 ) + ( 11
​
4
× ​
7
10
​ × 96 ) + ( 11
​
7
× ​
4
10
​ × 96 ) +( 11
7
​ × 6
10
​ × 95 ) = ​
7
11
​

4 3
P (1st Pear ∩ 3rd Orange) × 10 × 97 + 11
4 7
× 10 × 96 2
c. P (1st Pear|3rd Orange) = = 11
= 5 
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

7
P (3rd Orange)
​ ​ ​

11
​

3 Probability 9
 Skill Check 3

9709/ 51/ June2022/ Q4/ a

Jacob has four coins. One of the coins is biased such that when it is thrown the probability of
7
obtaining a head is 10 . The other three coins are fair. Jacob throws all four coins once. The
​

number of heads that he obtains is denoted by the random variable X. The probability
distribution table for X is as follows.

x 0 1 2 3 4
3 7
P(X = x) 80
 ​
a b c 80
​

Show that a = 15 and find the values of b and c.

​

Solution
3 3
Answer: b = 8
​
and c = 10 
​

Explanation:

a = P (1 head)
So ‘a’ will be the probability of the event that we get a head on the biased coin and tail on
others OR we get a tail on the biased coin and head on any one of the three unbiased
coins.
a = 0.7 × (0.5)3 + 0.3 × (0.5)3 × 3
a = 51 ​

Working on a similar pattern, b = P (2 heads) and c = P(3 heads). bis the probaility of the
event that the biased coin is a head AND any one of the three unbiased coin is head OR the
biased coin is a tail AND any two of the three unbiased coins are heads.

b = 0.7 × (0.5)3 × 3 + 0.3 × (0.5)3 × 3

b = 83  ​

Lastly, cwill be the probability of the event that the biased coin is head AND any two of the
unbiased coins are head OR the biased coin is tails AND all three of the unbiased coins are
heads.

c = 0.7 × (0.5)3 × 3 + 0.3 × (0.5)3 

3
c= 10 
​

Points to Note

3 Probability 10
 When probabilities are assigned to the outcomes in a sample space, each probability must lie
between 0 and 1 inclusive, and the sum of all the probabilities assigned must be equal to 1.

The probability of an event A is:

n(A)
P (A) = n(ε) 
​

Where n(A)is the number of ways that Acan occur and n(ε)is the total number of ways that
all possible events can occur, all of which are equally likely.

For any two events, A and B, of the same experiment,

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

Where events are mutually exclusive the rule still holds but, since P (A ∩ B)is now equal to
zero, the equation simplifies to:
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
Where an experiment produces two or more mutually exclusive events, the probabilities of
separate events sum to 1.

P (A) + P (A′ ) = 1
For two independent events, A and B,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)
P(B|A)means the probability of event B occurring given that event A has already occurred,
P (A∩B )
P (B∣A) = P (A)
​

The probability that event A and then event B occur, in that order is,

P (A) × P (B∣A).
If event B is independent of event A,

P (B∣A) = P (B∣A′ ) = P (B)

3 Probability 11