STA112

 Binomial distribution

 Geometric distribution

 Poisson distribution

 Normal distribution

 Permutation and combination

 Binomial distribution

The binomial distribution is a generalization of the Bernoulli. Suppose we

repeat an experiment several times, say n times and also suppose we are

interested in the number of successes out of the n attempts.

Let X denotes the number of successes. Obviously, the possible values of X are

o, 1, 2 ,…., n. X is a random variable and the probability law which describes

the probability behaviour of X is called the Binomial distribution.

 Binomial distribution
(a). There is a fixed number, n of trials.

(b). The trials are independent.

(c). Only 2 outcomes say ‘’success’’ and ‘’failure’’ are possible at

each trial.
(d). The probability, p of success is constant at every trial.

(e). The binomial random variable X, is the number of successes that

occur in n trials.

𝑛
𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0,12, … . . 𝑛
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑥
0 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
 The Mean and Variance of Binomial
Distribution
The mean denoted E(x) of a Binomial
distribution is given as E(X)=np, where n stands
for number of trials, P probability of success.

The variance denoted Var(x) of a Binomial

distribution is given as Var(X)=npq, where n
stands for number of trials, P probability of
success, q probability of failure.
 Binomial distribution
Example 1
It is known that two out of every ten bolts produced by a machine are defective.
In a pack of six bolts, calculate the probability that:
(a). exactly two bolts are defective (b). not more than two bolts are defective
(c). at least two bolts are defective (d). between two and four bolts inclusive are
defective (e). All the bolts are defective.
Solution.
2
Let X be the number of defective bolts in a pack of 6 bolts. 𝑛 = 6, 𝑝 = =
10
1 1 4 1
1−𝑝 =1− = 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙(𝑛 = 1, 𝑝 = ) and the probability
5 5 5 5
6 1 𝑥 4 6−𝑥
distribution function is 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑥
𝑥 = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6.
5 5
(a). p(exactly 2 bolts are defective)
6 1 2 4 4 6 .5 (44 ) 7680 768
𝑓 𝑥=2 =𝑓 2 = 2
= = = =0.24576
5 5 2 .1 (56 ) 31250 3125
 Example 1 (Cont’d)
(b). p(not more than 2 bolts are defective)
6 1 0 4 6 6 1 1 4 5 768
𝑓 𝑥 ≤ 2 = 𝑓 0 + 𝑓 1 + 𝑓(2) = 0
+ 1
+
5 5 5 5 3125
4 6 45 768 4096 6144 768 14080
= +6 + = + + = = 0.90112
5 56 3125 15625 15625 3125 15625
(c). p(at least 2 bolts are defective)
4096 6144 240
𝑓 𝑥 ≥ 2 = 1 − 𝑓 𝑥 < 2 = 1 − 𝑓 0 − 𝑓(1) = 1 − − =
15625 15625 15625
(d). p(between 2 and 4 bolts are defective inclusive)
𝑓 2 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 4 = 𝑓 2 + 𝑓 3 + 𝑓(4)
768 1 3 4 3 1 4 4 2 768 6 .5 .4 4 3 6 .5 .4 .3 4 2
6 6
= + 3
+ 4
= + +
3125 5 5 5 5 3125 3 .2 .1 5 6 4 .3 .2 .1 5 6
768 1280 240 5360
= + + =
3125 15625 15625 15625
(e). p(all the bolts are defective)
6 1 6 4 0 1 6 1
𝑓 𝑥=6 =𝑓 6 = 6
= = = 0.000064
5 5 5 15625
 The Geometric Distribution
The geometric distribution occurs when:
(i). There is a sequence of trials such that the experiment is repeated until a
success occurs
(ii). The trials are independent.
(iii). Only the outcomes say ‘’success’’ and ‘’failure’’ are possible at each trial.

(iv). The probability p of success is constant at each trial.

(v). The geometric random variable X is the number of trials that precede the
first success.

Examples: (i). The number of times a student takes an exam before passing the
exam for the first time. (ii). The number of bolts examined by a researcher
before observing a defective bolt for the first time.
 The Geometric Distribution

Definition: A discrete random variable X is said to follow geometric distribution

𝑥−1
if 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑝(1 − 𝑝) , 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3, … …
0 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
1 1−𝑝
𝐸 𝑋 = ,𝑉 𝑋 = 2 0 < 𝑝 < 1
𝑝 𝑝

This denotes the probability that the first success will occur on trial number x
𝑝(1 − 𝑝) 𝑥 , 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 3, … …
𝑓 𝑥 =
0 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
1−𝑝 1−𝑝
𝐸 𝑋 = ,𝑉 𝑋 = 2 0 < 𝑝 < 1
𝑝 𝑝

This denotes the probability of x failures before the first success

Example
The Geometric Distribution 2
A fair coin is tossed until a head appears.
(a). What is the probability that three tosses are needed?

(b). What is the probability at at most three tosses are needed?

Solution.
(a). Let X denote the number of tosses until a success (a head) occurs.
Since the coin is fair, p = ½.
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑝(1 − 𝑝) 𝑥 −1 , 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3, …
1 1 1 1 2 1 3
𝑓 𝑥 = 3 = (1 − )3−1 = =
2 2 2 2 2

(b). At most three tosses are needed

𝑓 𝑥 ≤ 3 = 𝑓 𝑥 = 1 + 𝑓 𝑥 = 2 + 𝑓(𝑥 = 3)
1 1 𝑥 −1
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑝(1 − 𝑝) 𝑥 −1 , 𝑓 𝑥 =
2 2
2
1 1 1 1 `1 7
= + + =
2 2 1 2 2 8
 Poisson distribution
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution of a
random variable x that satisfies the following conditions.

 The experiment consists of counting the number of times x an

event occurs in a given interval. The interval can be an interval
of time, area, or volume.
 The probability of the event occurring is the same for each
interval.
 The number of occurrences in one interval is independent of
the number of occurrences in other intervals.

The probability of exactly x occurrences in an interval is

 Poisson distribution

𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆 𝑥
𝑓 𝑥 = , 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 3, … …
𝑥!
0 𝜆>0 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
λ = the average number of times the random event occurs in a specified
interval

The mean and variance of a poisson distribution is 𝜆

 Poisson distribution
Examples of random variables that follow the
Poisson distributions are as follows.

(1). The number of misprints per page of a book.

(2). The number of people affected by an epidemic

in a given region or a locality.

(3). The number of cars that pass through a

university gate every five minutes
 Poisson distribution
Example 1
The average number of days school is closed due to strike in a particular state is
4. What is the probability that the school will close for 6 days.
Solution.
4 6 𝑒 −4
𝜆 = 4, 𝑥 = 6 𝑓 4 ,6 = = 0.1042
6!
Example 2.

It is known that 3 cars, on the average pass through a university gate every 5
minutes. What is the probability that four or more cars will pass through the
gate in a given 5 – minute interval?
Solution.
Let X = number of cars that pass through the gate every 5 minutes. Then X
follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λ, and its pmf given that the mean
𝑒 −3 3 𝑥
of X = E[X] = 3 cars 𝑓 𝑥 = , 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 3, … …
𝑥!
The required probability is: p(4 or more cars pass through the university gate
in a given 5 – interval)
𝑓 𝑥 ≥ 4 = 1 − 𝑓 𝑥 < 4 = 1 − [𝑓 0 + 𝑓 1 + 𝑓 2 + 𝑓 3 ]
𝑒 −3 3 0 𝑒 −3 3 1 𝑒 −3 3 2 𝑒 −3 3 3 𝑒 −3
=1− + + + =1− 6 + 18 + 27 + 27 =
0! 1! 2! 3! 6
0.35
 Normal distribution
It is the most important continuous distribution. The range of X is the real line.
The probability Distribution function is as follows
1 𝑥 −𝜇 2
1 −
𝑓 𝑥 =𝜎 2𝜋
𝑒 2 𝜎 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞.
General properties.
1. 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝜇 𝑉 𝑋 = 𝜎 2
2. The pdf is completely specified when 𝜇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 2 are known.
3. 𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝜇 = 0 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 2 = 1 X has a standard normal distribution. Thus the
pdf of X becomes
1
1 − 𝑥2
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 2 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞.
2𝜋
The importance of the standard normal distribution is the fact that it is tabulated.
4. f(x) is symmetrical about the point µ.
𝑥−𝜇
5. If X has a normal distribution with mean µ and variance σ2 then has a
𝜎
standard normal distribution.
 Normal distribution
The graph of the normal distribution (which is bell- shaped) is called the normal
curve.

The normal curve has the following characteristics:

1. It is symmetrical about a vertical axis through its mean.
2. All the measures of central tendency – mean, median and mode are equal.
3. It is bell- shaped and extends indefinitely in both directions. It approaches the
horizontal axis but never touches it. That is it is asymptotic to the x- axis.
4. The total area under the curve and above the x –axis is equal to 1. Hence the
area to the left is 0.5 and the one to the right is 0.5.
 Normal distribution
Example 1
Use the standard normal table to find the probability Z < 1.83
Solution.
Less than is to the left. From the table 1.8 under 0.03 = 0.9664
Example 2
Find the probability Z > 1.83
Solution.
𝑝(𝑍 > 1.83) = 1 − 𝑝 𝑍 < 1.83 = 1 − 0.9664 = 0.0336
Example 3
Find the probability p( 1.50 < Z < 1.83)
Solution.
𝑝 1.50 < 𝑍 < 1.83 = 𝑝 𝑍 < 1.83 − 𝑝 𝑍 < 1.50 = 0.9664 − 0.9332 =
0.0332
Example 4
Normal distribution
Students’ score in a mathematics examination are normally distributed with
mean 75% and standard deviation 10%. Find the probability that a student
selected at random scores: (a). less than 60% (b). above 80% (c). between 70%
and 90%. Solution.
Let X = students’ scores in the mathematics examination.
𝑋 ~𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 75, 100 𝜇 = 75, 𝜎 2 = 100, 𝜎 = 10.
𝑋−𝜇 𝑋−75
𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑍 = =
𝜎 10

(a). Required probability is p(X < 60)

𝑋−75 60−75
𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑋 = 60, 𝑍 = = = −1.50
10 10
𝑝 𝑋 < 60 = 𝑝 𝑍 < −1.50 = 0.0668.
Thus the probability that a student selected at random will score less than 60%
is 0.0668.
(b). Required probability is p(X > 80)
𝑋−75 80−75
𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑋 = 80, 𝑍 = = = 0.50
10 10
𝑝 𝑋 > 80 = 𝑝 𝑍 > 0.50
𝑝 𝑍 > 0.50 = 1 − 𝑝 𝑍 < 0.50 = 1 − 0.6915 = 0.3085
Thus the probability that a student selected at random will score above 80% is
0.3085.