2 - WSP - FPA - Is Forecasing
2 - WSP - FPA - Is Forecasing
wallstreetprep.com
The Case Study
• Forecasting Fundamentals
• Leads to….
• Process
• Involved Parties
• Headcount and average salary drive Salary • Focus on Pareto-efficient analysis (i.e., 20% of
Expense variables drive the 80% of performance))
• Historical results
• For historical patterns, may be necessary to
• Trends over time normalize the data for irregular or non-recurring
items
• Averages of past or expected
performance
• May also need to adjust for seasonality
• Competitor or industry benchmarks
• … be skeptical
• .. avoid biases
• Forecasting Fundamentals
• Expense drivers
• Walk-through Example
• Get to modeling!
• Do not change with • Include both fixed and • Vary based on the level of
varying levels of variable components production, sales, or
production, sales, or • Also covers fixed expenses processing
processing that have step-change • Includes personnel
• Includes rental expense, levels based on production expenses, credit card
and potentially • Example - server hosting processing fees, and
depreciation expenses marketing expenses
• Includes most Cost of Goods • Includes Salary, Travel & • Some expenses are based
Sold / Cost of Revenue Entertainment, and Stock on other expenses, or on
items Based Compensation the amount of assets or
• Depreciation à based
on the balance of PP&E
• Normalize historical data • Can be targeted levels • Validate and cite the source
before using based on strategic plans or used
business initiatives
company and the building lessor 3. For the forecasted period, we will
simply forecast rent using the same
• Contract specifies rent will increase for the
value as the prior month, with a planned
Seattle and San Francisco offices in January increase in January 22
2022.
4. Provided by Accounting, Legal (contract
owner), or Facilities, or it could be
expected that FP&A track this
Fixed Expenses 1
Rental Expenses Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F Jan-22F Feb-22F Mar-22F Apr-22F May-22F Jun-22F
Seattle Office 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
San Francisco Office 2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
New York Office 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Chicago Office 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total Rent Expense 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
Total Fixed Expenses 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
Fixed Expenses 3 4
Rental Expenses Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F Jan-22F Feb-22F Mar-22F Apr-22F May-22F Jun-22F
Seattle Office 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
San Francisco Office 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
New York Office 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Chicago Office 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total Rent Expense 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
Total Fixed Expenses 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
• Annual salary & growth rate for each type are also 2. For Headcount data, we will refer to the
results of our separate Headcount
drivers
forecast
• Obtain historical data from our financial reporting
3. Note: We spoke with Human Resources
system and from Human Resources: about the planned raises for the
upcoming year and noted salaries are
• Headcount details
expected to increase 5% and 3% for
• Annual salary expenses Employees and Contractors,
respectively, both in March after
performance reviews are completed
Variable Expenses
Salary Expenses Summary Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F Jan-22F Feb-22F Mar-22F Apr-22F May-22F Jun-22F
Headcount (FTE)
Employees 1 22,400 22,400 22,400 22,400 22,400 22,400 22,960 23,520 24,808 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640
Contractors 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100
Vendors 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Total Headcount (FTE) 25,400 25,400 25,400 25,400 25,400 25,400 25,960 26,620 27,908 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740
1• Actual Headcount #’s are linked from the 3• Actual Salary Growth Rates are calculated as the
Headcount tab, and so are cell formatted green for month over month change in Average Salary
links (we’ll get to Headcount later)
4• Actual Salary Expense data is from the accounting
2• For Actual data, Average Salary is calculated using or financial reporting system, formatted as an input
historical Salary Expense and Headcount data
Licensed to Ftaou Sidibe. Email address: [email protected]
Check
Forecasting Variable Expenses Your Work
Variable Expenses
Salary Expenses Summary Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F Jan-22F Feb-22F Mar-22F Apr-22F May-22F Jun-22F
Headcount (FTE)
Employees 22,400 22,400 22,400 22,400 22,400 1
22,400 22,960 23,520 24,808 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640 24,640
Contractors 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100
Vendors 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Total Headcount (FTE) 25,400 25,400 25,400 25,400 25,400 25,400 25,960 26,620 27,908 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740 27,740
1• Forecasted Headcount #’s are also linked from the 3• Include the planned raise in Average Salary for
Headcount tab, and formatted green for links Employees and Contractors per Human Resource’s
guidance to us
2• Forecast Average Salary the same as historical
rates, adjusted for any anticipated raises in #3 4• Forecasted Salary Expense is calculated as
Forecasted Headcount * Forecasted Average Salary
Licensed to Ftaou Sidibe. Email address: [email protected]
Income Statement – Learning Plan
• Forecasting Fundamentals
• Forecasting Process
• Key Takeaways
CEO
1 2 3 4 5
Typically starts top- Use Average Salary to Collect headcount Bottoms-up is usually Process continues
down based on high- estimate how many requests from too high, so iterate. until targeted
level revenue employees can be department heads, Use initiatives headcount and salary
assumptions. How supported. Highlights usually by initiative or information to assess levels match the
many employees can potential for new hires to support higher and trim requests bottoms-up allocation
we afford? or need for layoffs activity levels to department /
location/ cost center
• Starts top-down using some • Some headcount are derived • Most derived from activity
estimate such as sales per from other headcount items levels, such as customers
employee, salary expense as a served, invoices processed,
• Ex. 4 Customer Account Reps
% of revenues divided by anticipated legal proceedings
per Sales Manager
average salary • Ex. Marketing headcount is
• Human Resources often scales
• Certain functions such as Sales with the change in headcount, driven by # of customers
& Marketing, may be directly as large increases in hiring acquired or channels served
tied to revenues
drive need for more HR • Ex. Accounting might be driven
• Ex. ratios such as Sales/Sales by # transactions processed or
employee or accounts per # of journal entries, etc.
person
• Look at current ratios or long- • Ex. Head of R&D is likely to • Ex. Industry average retail
term averages (i.e., trailing 1-2 have better insight into employees per bank branch
year averages) researcher headcount needed • Validate and cite the source,
• Important to understand how per project ensure it is relevant to your
& why trends may change • Should still be justifiable organization
moving forward compared to historical trends • If assumes an increase in
or external estimates employee efficiency, support
how the org will realize that
• Our first exercise is to look at the Product 1. Open the source file & navigate to the
Department within Research & Development ‘Headcount’ tab, and the section titled
Headcount ‘Bottoms-Up Forecast’. Then find the
‘Research & Development Headcount’
• From our Financial Reporting system we pulled below and look for ‘Product Headcount’
Headcount by department and title/role detail beginning at line 96
• Discussed with head of Product team what drives 2. Set the Historical month data to the
headcount requirements, and the only internal ‘input’ cell format, & calculate the
relationship they use is 3 Engineering Support and Engineering Support & Product
Analytics ratios
3 Product Analytics for each Product Manager
3. For the forecasted period, set the
• Product Team has no current plans to change
monthly value equal to the prior month.
headcount levels Set the Forecast ratios the same as
historical ratios, at 3 each
Product Department Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F Jan-22F Feb-22F Mar-22F Apr-22F May-22F Jun-22F
Product Managers 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Product Design 1 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
User Experience 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Product Development 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Engineering Support / Product Manager 2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Engineering Support 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Product Analytics / Product Manager 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Product Analytics 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Total Product Headcount 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150
Product Department Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F Jan-22F Feb-22F Mar-22F Apr-22F May-22F Jun-22F
Product Managers 200 200 200 200 200 200
3 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Product Design 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
User Experience 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Product Development 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Engineering Support / Product Manager 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Engineering Support 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Product Analytics / Product Manager 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Product Analytics 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
Total Product Headcount 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150
• Identify drivers
1. Open the source file & navigate to the
• For Customer Support, we identify Total # of ‘Headcount’ tab to ‘Bottoms-Up
Transactions, % Support Calls, and calls each Rep Forecast’. Then find ‘General &
handle on a monthly basis as the main drivers Administrative Headcount’ and
‘Customer Support Department under
• Total # of Transactions comes from our Revenue that
forecast, while the remaining metrics come from
2. Set the Historical month data to the
Financial Reporting System or directly from ‘input’ cell format, & calculate the ‘% of
Customer Support Support Calls’ and ‘Monthly Calls /
Customer Support Rep’
Customer Support Department Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F Jan-22F Feb-22F Mar-22F Apr-22F May-22F Jun-22F
Total Transactions (thousands)
1 28,892 24,896 22,652 32,528 30,734 33,483 29,932 27,473 25,291 27,263 27,650 32,486 30,229 26,046 23,698 34,033 32,151 35,031
% of Support Calls 10.19% 10.43% 10.47% 9.82% 10.46% 9.83% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20%
Support Calls (thousands)
2 2,944 2,597 2,372 3,194 3,213 3,290 3,053 2,802 2,580 2,781 2,820 3,313 3,083 2,656 2,417 3,471 3,279 3,573
Monthly Calls / Customer Support Rep 654 577 527 710 714 731 611 549 506 545 553 650 605 521 474 681 643 701
Customer Support Representatives 3 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 5,000 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100
CS FTE 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
CS Contractor 4 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100
CS Vendor 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Customer Support Rep / Manager 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3
CS Managers 400 400 400 400 400 400 444 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453
Total Customer Support Headcount 4,900 4,900 4,900 4,900 4,900 4,900 5,444 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553
•1 Total Transactions are linked to our Revenue •3 Monthly Calls / Customer Service
schedule with green formatting to indicate Representative = Support Calls * 1,000 /
link Customer Support Representatives as you
move from Support Calls (thousands) to
•2 # of Support Calls calc’d using Support Calls /
Customer Support Reps (single units)
Total Transactions
•4 Here Customer Service Reps are broken out by
1. Open Operating_Model.xlsx and Full-time Employee (FTE), Contractor, and
navigate to tab ‘Expenses’ to ‘Variable
Expenses’ and work through the problem Vendor
Customer Support Department Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F Jan-22F Feb-22F Mar-22F Apr-22F May-22F Jun-22F
Total Transactions (thousands) 28,892 24,896 22,652 32,528 30,734 33,483 29,932 27,473 25,291 27,263 27,650 32,486 30,229 26,046 23,698 34,033 32,151 35,031
% of Support Calls 10.19% 10.43% 10.47% 9.82% 10.46% 1
9.83% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20% 10.20%
Support Calls (thousands) 2,944 2,597 2,372 3,194 3,213 3,290 3,053 2,802 2,580 2,781 2,820 3,313 3,083 2,656 2,417 3,471 3,279 3,573
Monthly Calls / Customer Support Rep 654 577 527 710 714 2731 611 549 506 545 553 650 605 521 474 681 643 701
Customer Support Representatives 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 5,000 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100 5,100
CS FTE 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
CS Contractor 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 3
2,000 2,000 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100
CS Vendor 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Customer Support Rep / Manager 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3
CS Managers 400 400 400 400 400
4
400 444 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453 453
Total Customer Support Headcount 4,900 4,900 4,900 4,900 4,900 4,900 5,444 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553 5,553
1• No seasonally-repeating patterns in the timing of 3• Forecast FTE, Contractors, and Vendors separately.
Support Calls, so we minimize the noise in our Notice these are not directly driven by Monthly Calls
forecast with a lagging 6-month average / CS Rep, though that is used to tweak our
headcount forecasts here
2• Notice we keep Monthly Calls / CS Rep as a
calculation. While a driver of CS headcount, it is a 4• Forecast a ratio of CS Reps to CS Managers using a 6-
guide to check reasonableness of the service month historical average
burden / CS Rep rather than a direct driver
• Forecasting Fundamentals
• Drivers
• Process
• Level vs Trend
Subscription Transactional
1 Customers pay monthly or annually for
32 Customers pay a one-time fee for
continued access to a product or service, delivery of a product or provision of a
often noted as XaaS (“anything as a service. Examples such as Samsung TV’s
service”), such as Salesforce or Netflix or GM/Ford/Tesla
Licensing Advertising
3 Holders of patents or copyrights charge 44 Creating and selling ads to marketers
ongoing fees for the use of their looking to target potential customers
intellectual property, such as movie and (e.g., Google and Facebook)
music content creators or biotech
research firms
Construction Donations
13 Company earns revenue for constructing
3
14 Organization receives donations through
a building, factory, or other asset on fundraising efforts, pledges from
behalf of the customer. Examples include individuals or other organizations, or
Engineering & Consulting firms such as through grants. Common in Non-profit
Bechtel & Fluor sector
Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC), contract length, Annual Contract Value (ACV), Annual Recurring
Subscription
Revenue (ARR), Churn Rates, Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)
Transactional Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC), Sales Leads, Sales Conversion Rates, Discount %
Advertising Visitors, Clicks, Cost per Click (CPC), Click Through Rate (CTR), Cost per Impression (CPM)
Affiliate Click Through Rate (CTR), Conversion %, Sales Price, Commission % or Revenue Share %
Web Sales Visitors, Search Rates, Conversion %, Price / Transaction, Product Margin
Direct Sales Sales Pipeline, Sales Leads, Sales Closing %, Contract Value, Probability & Timing of Closing
Commission Conversion Rates, # of Transactions, Price or Spread per Transaction, Commission rates, Volume Bonuses
# of Channel Partners, Channel Throughput, Channel Markup, Channel Discounts, Distribution Fees,
Channel or Indirect
Volume bonuses, Trade Credits
Retail Sales per sq.ft, Retail Square Footage, Same Store Sales Growth, # of Stores, Sales/Store, Average
Retail
Order Size, Visitor Frequency
# of Customers, Customer Size/Tier, Average or Tiered Usage, Charge per Use, Customer Acquisition Costs
Pay-per-use
(CAC), User Retention
Free Users, Acquisition Rate, Churn Rate (both unpaid and paid), User conversion rates, subscription fee
Freemium
(per month or year)
Construction Sales Backlog, Sales Pipeline, Contract Value, Project Timeline, Revenue Recognition Method
# of Grants, Listeners/Members, Average Donation per Member, # of Fundraising Events, Average Funds
Donations
Raised per Event
• Focus is on generating web traffic, • At each step of the process, potential leads will
converting these visitors to customers, drop out of the process making the remaining
assessing transaction value, and pool smaller, thus resembling a funnel
determining the expected margin or
commissions rate we earn
• Oftentimes the best and most • Estimates provided by internal • GDP Growth Rates, New Home
supportable metrics specialists or experts Sales, Target Market Size, or
Price per Barrel of Oil
• May use point estimates (i.e., • Ex. Sales teams provide
monthly historical figures) or probability of closing a deal, • Competitor or Industry ratios
averages (i.e., trailing 6 or 12 while Product team estimates or levels may be collated and
month averages) customer conversion rates used as estimates
• Always normalize historical • These can also be targeted • Be sure to validate and cite the
data before using, especially for levels based on strategic plans source used, and ensure it is
Revenues or business initiatives relevant to your organization
1 2 3 4 5
Start top-down based FP&A builds out FP&A meets with FP&A reruns the Forecast iterates
on high-level revenue revenue assumptions functions and revenue forecast with based on other
assumptions. May from the bottoms-up. departments that own updated assumptions. forecasted inputs
project revenues Includes estimates of the revenue Compare to the high- (headcount, expense,
based on revenue customers, charge assumptions to level forecast and etc.), until settled and
growth trends without rates, and margins discuss trends, and investigate differences the resulting forecast
driver variables, or planned initiatives to is reasonable and
market size and share affect forecasted represents the
data to project assumptions planned operating
initiatives and impacts
• The way each of the three components work together can be additive or multiplicative
Forecast(t) = (𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 + 𝑇𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑑) + 𝑆𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 𝑁𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑒 Forecast(t) = (Level * Trend )* Seasonality * Noise
• Linear seasonality has the same frequency • Non-linear seasonality has increasing or
and amplitude of cycles decreasing frequency or amplitude over time
• Ex. A company offers the first 500 customers • Ex. The same company instead offers the first
on their anniversary date a free product 10% of their customers a free product
Chart Title
Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Jan-00Feb-00
Chart Title
Chart Title
Chart Title
• Compare to our historical Gross Booking and 3. Pull in annual Online Travel Agent
Revenue levels to determine estimated market Market Size by year from the report for
share and revenue margin all years provided
• Apply to market size forecasts to develop an 4. For the forecasted period, enter in
assumptions for Market Share and
estimate of future Gross Bookings and Revenues
Revenue Margin
• Forecast total website visitors using year over year 1. Open the source file & navigate to the
(y/y or YoY) growth for each Marketing channel, ‘Revenue’ tab, and the section titled
including: ‘Bottoms-Up (Detailed) Forecast’
Visitors (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Direct Search 176,654 164,502 144,443 167,013 153,863 168,280 176,824 173,280 148,662 191,926 164,754 188,269 185,487 172,727 151,665 175,364 161,556 176,694
y/y growth % 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Search - Organic 69,290 64,754 57,737 61,149 55,422 63,725 71,326 60,855 55,380 67,402 68,157 69,967 74,487 69,610 62,068 65,735 59,578 68,505
y/y growth % 1 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
Search - Paid 260,240 230,510 198,327 206,512 183,376 217,600 250,940 216,826 198,340 232,562 241,296 251,714 270,650 239,730 206,260 214,772 190,711 226,304
y/y growth % 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
Partner Referral 55,971 50,254 45,313 47,725 43,667 50,320 53,676 50,217 44,544 55,541 53,955 54,496 57,370 51,510 46,445 48,918 44,759 51,578
y/y growth % 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Total Visitors 562,156 510,019 445,820 482,399 436,327 499,924 552,766 501,178 446,926 547,431 528,162 564,446 587,995 533,578 466,438 504,789 456,604 523,080
Search Rates Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Air 56.87% 57.46% 53.78% 55.23% 48.85% 48.77% 55.43% 58.47% 56.63% 48.67% 47.92% 47.20% 56.87% 57.46% 53.78% 55.23% 48.85% 48.77%
Hotel 15.39% 15.27% 16.50% 16.14% 18.84% 18.30% 15.65% 14.67% 15.49% 18.97% 18.84% 19.16% 15.39% 15.27% 16.50% 16.14% 18.84% 18.30%
Car 3 19.41% 19.25% 20.80% 20.36% 23.75% 23.85% 19.74% 18.50% 19.53% 23.92% 23.76% 24.16% 19.41% 19.25% 20.80% 20.36% 23.75% 23.85%
Local Experience 2.71% 2.69% 2.90% 2.84% 3.31% 3.50% 2.75% 2.58% 2.73% 3.34% 3.31% 3.37% 2.71% 2.69% 2.90% 2.84% 3.31% 3.50%
Bounce 5.62% 5.33% 6.02% 5.43% 5.25% 5.58% 6.43% 5.77% 5.63% 5.11% 6.17% 6.11% 5.62% 5.33% 6.02% 5.43% 5.25% 5.58%
Check
Shoppers (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Air 319,700 293,058 239,775 266,416 213,133 243,790 306,379 293,058 253,096 266,416 253,096 266,416 334,394 306,595 250,864 278,782 223,038 255,082
Hotel 2 86,522 77,870 73,544 77,870 82,196 91,479 86,522 73,544 69,218 103,826 99,500 108,152 90,499 81,467 76,945 81,484 86,016 95,716
Car 109,104 98,194 92,738 98,194 103,649 119,240 109,104 92,738 87,283 130,925 125,469 136,380 114,119 102,729 97,027 102,751 108,465 124,763
Local Experience 15,224 13,701 12,940 13,701 14,463 17,507 15,224 12,940 12,179 18,269 17,507 19,030 15,924 14,334 13,539 14,337 15,135 18,318
Total Shoppers 530,549 482,823 418,997 456,181 413,440 472,016 517,229 472,280 421,775 519,436 495,573 529,979 554,935 505,125 438,375 477,355 432,653 493,879
1• Actual Visitors by month are given for historical period 3• Utilize historical data to calculate monthly search rates
based on Product shoppers / Total Visitors
2• Actual Shoppers (Quoters) by month are provided as well,
here by product searched
Licensed to Ftaou Sidibe. Email address: [email protected]
Forecasting Visitors & Shoppers Exercise
Visitors (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Direct Search 176,654 164,502 144,443 167,013 153,863 168,280 176,824 173,280 148,662 191,926 164,754 188,269 185,487 172,727 151,665 175,364 161,556 176,694
y/y growth % 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Search - Organic 69,290 64,754 57,737 61,149 55,422 63,725 71,326 60,855 55,380 67,402 68,157 69,967 74,487 69,610 62,068 65,735 59,578 68,505
y/y growth % 1 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
Search - Paid 260,240 230,510 198,327 206,512 183,376 217,600 250,940 216,826 198,340 232,562 241,296 251,714 270,650 239,730 206,260 214,772 190,711 226,304
y/y growth % 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
Partner Referral 55,971 50,254 45,313 47,725 43,667 50,320 53,676 50,217 44,544 55,541 53,955 54,496 57,370 51,510 46,445 48,918 44,759 51,578
y/y growth % 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Total Visitors 562,156 510,019 445,820 482,399 436,327 499,924 552,766 501,178 446,926 547,431 528,162 564,446 2 587,995 533,578 466,438 504,789 456,604 523,080
Search Rates Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Air 56.87% 57.46% 53.78% 55.23% 48.85% 48.77% 55.43% 58.47% 56.63% 48.67% 47.92% 47.20% 56.87% 57.46% 53.78% 55.23% 48.85% 48.77%
Hotel 15.39% 15.27% 16.50% 16.14% 18.84% 18.30% 15.65% 14.67% 15.49% 18.97% 18.84% 19.16% 15.39% 15.27% 16.50% 16.14% 18.84% 18.30%
Car 19.41% 19.25% 20.80% 20.36% 23.75% 23.85% 19.74% 18.50% 19.53% 23.92% 23.76% 24.16% 3 19.41% 19.25% 20.80% 20.36% 23.75% 23.85%
Local Experience 2.71% 2.69% 2.90% 2.84% 3.31% 3.50% 2.75% 2.58% 2.73% 3.34% 3.31% 3.37% 2.71% 2.69% 2.90% 2.84% 3.31% 3.50%
Bounce 5.62% 5.33% 6.02% 5.43% 5.25% 5.58% 6.43% 5.77% 5.63% 5.11% 6.17% 6.11% 5.62% 5.33% 6.02% 5.43% 5.25% 5.58%
Check
Shoppers (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Air 319,700 293,058 239,775 266,416 213,133 243,790 306,379 293,058 253,096 266,416 253,096 266,416 334,394 306,595 250,864 278,782 223,038 255,082
Hotel 86,522 77,870 73,544 77,870 82,196 91,479 86,522 73,544 69,218 103,826 99,500 108,152 4 90,499 81,467 76,945 81,484 86,016 95,716
Car 109,104 98,194 92,738 98,194 103,649 119,240 109,104 92,738 87,283 130,925 125,469 136,380 114,119 102,729 97,027 102,751 108,465 124,763
Local Experience 15,224 13,701 12,940 13,701 14,463 17,507 15,224 12,940 12,179 18,269 17,507 19,030 15,924 14,334 13,539 14,337 15,135 18,318
Total Shoppers 530,549 482,823 418,997 456,181 413,440 472,016 517,229 472,280 421,775 519,436 495,573 529,979 554,935 505,125 438,375 477,355 432,653 493,879
1• Calculate Visitors as (PY month visitor) * 3• Assume the variations we see in Search Rates by product are due to
(1+y/y growth %) seasonality. Use the PY same month Search Rate as our assumption
2• Sum Total Visitors – this will be the multiplier 4• Calculate Shoppers by product as Total Visitors * Search Rate
used to calculate Shoppers by product
Licensed to Ftaou Sidibe. Email address: [email protected]
Check
Forecasting Visitors & Shoppers Your Work
Visitors (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Direct Search 176,654 164,502 144,443 167,013 153,863 168,280 176,824 173,280 148,662 191,926 164,754 188,269 185,487 172,727 151,665 175,364 161,556 176,694
y/y growth % 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Search - Organic 69,290 64,754 57,737 61,149 55,422 63,725 71,326 60,855 55,380 67,402 68,157 69,967 74,487 69,610 62,068 65,735 59,578 68,505
y/y growth % 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
Search - Paid 260,240 230,510 198,327 206,512 183,376 217,600 250,940 216,826 198,340 232,562 241,296 251,714 270,650 239,730 206,260 214,772 190,711 226,304
y/y growth % 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
Partner Referral 55,971 50,254 45,313 47,725 43,667 50,320 53,676 50,217 44,544 55,541 53,955 54,496 57,370 51,510 46,445 48,918 44,759 51,578
y/y growth % 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Total Visitors 562,156 510,019 445,820 482,399 436,327 499,924 552,766 501,178 446,926 547,431 528,162 564,446 587,995 533,578 466,438 504,789 456,604 523,080
Search Rates Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Air 56.87% 57.46% 53.78% 55.23% 48.85% 48.77% 55.43% 58.47% 56.63% 48.67% 47.92% 47.20% 56.87% 57.46% 53.78% 55.23% 48.85% 48.77%
Hotel 15.39% 15.27% 16.50% 16.14% 18.84% 18.30% 15.65% 14.67% 15.49% 18.97% 18.84% 19.16% 15.39% 15.27% 16.50% 16.14% 18.84% 18.30%
Car 19.41% 19.25% 20.80% 20.36% 23.75% 23.85% 19.74% 18.50% 19.53% 23.92% 23.76% 24.16%1 19.41% 19.25% 20.80% 20.36% 23.75% 23.85%
Local Experience 2.71% 2.69% 2.90% 2.84% 3.31% 3.50% 2.75% 2.58% 2.73% 3.34% 3.31% 3.37% 2.71% 2.69% 2.90% 2.84% 3.31% 3.50%
Bounce 5.62% 5.33% 6.02% 5.43% 5.25% 5.58% 6.43% 5.77% 5.63% 5.11% 6.17% 6.11% 5.62% 5.33% 6.02% 5.43% 5.25% 5.58%
Check
Shoppers (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Air 319,700 293,058 239,775 266,416 213,133 243,790 306,379 293,058 253,096 266,416 253,096 266,416 334,394 306,595 250,864 278,782 223,038 255,082
Hotel 86,522 77,870 73,544 77,870 82,196 91,479 86,522 73,544 69,218 103,826 99,500 108,152 90,499 81,467 76,945 81,484 86,016 95,716
Car 109,104 98,194 92,738 98,194 103,649 119,240 109,104 92,738 87,283 130,925 125,469 136,380 114,119 102,729 97,027 102,751 108,465 124,763
Local Experience 15,224 13,701 12,940 13,701 14,463 17,507 15,224 12,940 12,179 18,269 17,507 19,030 15,924 14,334 13,539 14,337 15,135 18,318
Total Shoppers 530,549 482,823 418,997 456,181 413,440 472,016 517,229 472,280 421,775 519,436 495,573 529,979 554,935 505,125 438,375 477,355 432,653 493,879
1• Notice that total Search Rates only total to 100% if we include a dummy product called ‘bounce’
which is the % of individuals who come to our site but leave without ever searching for a product
Shoppers (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Air 319,700 293,058 239,775 266,416 213,133 243,790 306,379 293,058 253,096 266,416 253,096 266,416 334,394 306,595 250,864 278,782 223,038 255,082
Hotel 86,522 77,870 73,544 77,870 82,196 91,479 86,522 73,544 69,218 103,826 99,500 108,152 90,499 81,467 76,945 81,484 86,016 95,716
Car
1 109,104 98,194 92,738 98,194 103,649 119,240 109,104 92,738 87,283 130,925 125,469 136,380 114,119 102,729 97,027 102,751 108,465 124,763
Local Experience 15,224 13,701 12,940 13,701 14,463 17,507 15,224 12,940 12,179 18,269 17,507 19,030 15,924 14,334 13,539 14,337 15,135 18,318
Total Shoppers 530,549 482,823 418,997 456,181 413,440 472,016 517,229 472,280 421,775 519,436 495,573 529,979 554,935 505,125 438,375 477,355 432,653 493,879
Conversion Rate Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 3 8.90% 8.88% 9.14% 8.87% 8.80% 9.71% 8.87% 8.49% 8.41% 8.53% 8.15% 4
8.72% 8.90% 8.88% 9.14% 8.87% 8.80% 9.71%
Transactions (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 2 7,697 6,913 6,723 6,909 7,234 8,881 7,678 6,241 5,821 8,852 8,112 9,433
5 8,051 7,232 7,034 7,230 7,570 9,292
1• Shoppers (Quoters) by month from the first step of the 4• Conversion seems steady, but there is likely some
exercise seasonality here as well. Let’s stick with PY month’s
Conversion Rate for our forecast
2• Hotel Transactions are given
5• Calculation Transactions as Shoppers * Conversion Rate
3• Calculate historical Conversion rate as Transactions /
Hotel Shoppers by month
Shoppers (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Air 319,700 293,058 239,775 266,416 213,133 243,790 306,379 293,058 253,096 266,416 253,096 266,416 334,394 306,595 250,864 278,782 223,038 255,082
Hotel 86,522 77,870 73,544 77,870 82,196 91,479 86,522 73,544 69,218 103,826 99,500 108,152 90,499 81,467 76,945 81,484 86,016 95,716
Car 109,104 98,194 92,738 98,194 103,649 119,240 109,104 92,738 87,283 130,925 125,469 136,380 114,119 102,729 97,027 102,751 108,465 124,763
Local Experience 15,224 13,701 12,940 13,701 14,463 17,507 15,224 12,940 12,179 18,269 17,507 19,030 15,924 14,334 13,539 14,337 15,135 18,318
Total Shoppers 530,549 482,823 418,997 456,181 413,440 472,016 517,229 472,280 421,775 519,436 495,573 529,979 554,935 505,125 438,375 477,355 432,653 493,879
Conversion Rate Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 8.90% 8.88% 9.14% 8.87% 8.80% 9.71% 8.87% 8.49% 8.41% 8.53% 8.15% 8.72% 8.90% 8.88% 9.14% 8.87% 8.80% 9.71%
Transactions (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 7,697 6,913 6,723 6,909 7,234 8,881 7,678 6,241 5,821 8,852 8,112 9,433 8,051 7,232 7,034 7,230 7,570 9,292
Transactions (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 1 7,697 6,913 6,723 6,909 7,234 8,881 7,678 6,241 5,821 8,852 8,112 9,433 8,051 7,232 7,034 7,230 7,570 9,292
Rate per Unit Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 5 $193.43 $156.90 $179.85 $162.06 $156.80 $198.27 $156.74 $166.22 $186.14 $191.63 $196.62 $185.37 $193.43 $156.90 $179.85 $162.06 $156.80 $198.27
Gross Sales Value (millions) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 4 5,206 3,791 3,745 3,916 3,963 6,154 4,208 3,624 3,791 5,935 5,575 6,117 5,445 3,966 3,918 4,097 4,147 6,439
Margin/ Commission Rate Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 7 10.13% 10.01% 10.44% 10.49% 10.44% 10.78% 10.39% 10.30% 10.41% 10.04% 10.83% 10.27% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37%
Revenue (millions) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel
6 528 379 391 411 414 663 437 373 395 596 604 628 565 411 406 425 430 668
1• Hotel Transactions from the previous step 5• Calculate Average Daily Rate Gross Sales Value / Total Room
Nights
2• Historical # of Room Nights is given
6• Historical Revenue is given
3• Calculate Average Length of Stay as Room Nights /
Transactions 7• Calculation Revenue Margin as Revenue / Gross Sales Value
Transactions (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 7,697 6,913 6,723 6,909 7,234 8,881 7,678 6,241 5,821 8,852 8,112 9,433 8,051 7,232 7,034 7,230 7,570 9,292
Rate per Unit Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel $193.43 $156.90 $179.85 $162.06 $156.80 $198.27 $156.74 $166.22 $186.14 $191.63 $196.62 $185.37 3 $193.43 $156.90 $179.85 $162.06 $156.80 $198.27
Gross Sales Value (millions) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 5,206 3,791 3,745 3,916 3,963 6,154 4,208 3,624 3,791 5,935 5,575 6,117 4 5,445 3,966 3,918 4,097 4,147 6,439
Margin/ Commission Rate Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 10.13% 10.01% 10.44% 10.49% 10.44% 10.78% 10.39% 10.30% 10.41% 10.04% 10.83% 10.27%
5 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37%
Revenue (millions) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 528 379 391 411 414 663 437 373 395 596 604 628
6 565 411 406 425 430 668
1• Utilize PY month’s Average Length of Stay 4• Calculate Gross Sales Value as Room Nights * Average Daily
Rate
2• Total Room Nights are calculated as Transactions * Average
Length of Stay 5• Let’s use the last 6-month average Margin % as our forecast
3• Utilize PY month’s Average Daily Rate (Rate per Unit) 6• Hotel Revenues calculated as Gross Sales Value * Margin %
Transactions (thousands) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 7,697 6,913 6,723 6,909 7,234 8,881 7,678 6,241 5,821 8,852 8,112 9,433 8,051 7,232 7,034 7,230 7,570 9,292
Rate per Unit Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel $193.43 $156.90 $179.85 $162.06 $156.80 $198.27 $156.74 $166.22 $186.14 $191.63 $196.62 $185.37 $193.43 $156.90 $179.85 $162.06 $156.80 $198.27
Gross Sales Value (millions) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 5,206 3,791 3,745 3,916 3,963 6,154 4,208 3,624 3,791 5,935 5,575 6,117 5,445 3,966 3,918 4,097 4,147 6,439
Margin/ Commission Rate Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 10.13% 10.01% 10.44% 10.49% 10.44% 10.78% 10.39% 10.30% 10.41% 10.04% 10.83% 1
10.27% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37%
Revenue (millions) Jul-20A Aug-20A Sep-20A Oct-20A Nov-20A Dec-20A Jan-21A Feb-21A Mar-21A Apr-21A May-21A Jun-21A Jul-21F Aug-21F Sep-21F Oct-21F Nov-21F Dec-21F
Hotel 528 379 391 411 414 663 437 373 395 596 604 628 565 411 406 425 430 668
1• Take care to calculate Margin % as (sum of L6M Total Revenue) / (sum of L6M Total Gross Sales Value)
• Forecasting Fundamentals
• Ratios
• How are Gross or Net Margins • Charts are an excellent way to spot trends and
changing and why? insights in both inputs AND outputs
• Keep your audience in mind when presenting
• What does our forecast imply about
the forecast summary. Your audience
our headcount efficiency?
determines the level of detail