Prediction of Students Performance With Learning Coefficients Using Regression Based Machine Learning Models
Prediction of Students Performance With Learning Coefficients Using Regression Based Machine Learning Models
Gjøvik, Norway
Corresponding author: Nishu Gupta ([email protected])
ABSTRACT Advanced machine learning (ML) methods can predict student’s performance with key features
based on academic, behavioral, and demographic data. Significant works have predicted the student’s
performance based on the primary and secondary data sets derived from the student’s existing data. These
works have accurately predicted student’s performance but did not provide the metrics as suggestions for
improved performance. This paper proposes the ‘Learning Coefficients’ evaluated through trajectory-based
computerized adaptive assessment. Learning coefficients also provide quantified metrics to the students to
focus more on their studies and improve their further performance. Before selecting the learning coefficients
as the key features for student’s performance prediction, their dependency on other key features is calculated
through positive Pearson’s coefficient correlation. Further, the paper presents comparative analysis of the
performance of regression-based ML models such as decision trees, random forest, support vector regression,
linear regression and artificial neural networks on the same dataset. Results show that linear regression
obtained the highest accuracy of 97% when compared to other models.
INDEX TERMS Adaptive assessment, learning coefficients, machine learning models, regression based
prediction, student’s grade prediction.
necessary support for a better understanding of courses [5] Machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN),
to improve student’s knowledge and academic performance. Decision Tree (DT), Random Forests (RF), Multilayer Per-
ML models help discover patterns and relationships between ception (MP), Linear Regression (LR), bagging and boosting
data variables and analyze complex non-linear relationships that have provided accurate results while predicting perfor-
for decision-making. They are also valuable in predicting stu- mances [6], [7]. This data was pre-processed with supervised
dent’s performance based on various factors including their learning methods as shown in Figure 1.
earlier and in-term performance in each course.
B. ORGANIZATION
A. CONTRIBUTION Section II presents a background of the ML-based student’s
Earlier work relied on static predictors that only predicted the performance prediction models, discusses the feature selec-
performance without providing the measures of improvement tion process for training and testing of these models and iden-
in the performance. This works used ‘Learning Coefficients’ tifies the non-uniformity among these features. Section III
as the dynamic predictors of student’s performance. These discusses the proposed method and introduces ‘learning coef-
are academic predictors and are calculated through adap- ficients’ as quantitative metrics of student’s performance
tive assessment conducted as continuous evaluation during calculated through adaptive assessment. In section IV, learn-
the semester. They bring uniformity in one of the predic- ing coefficients are established as one of the key features for
tors, purely as the evaluation of student’s knowledge with prediction which is confirmed by calculating its correlation
respect to the course studied in the current academic semester. with other academic and demographic features. Further, this
This way it provides a true measure of student’s current section presents the results and discusses the performance
performance and better performance in adaptive assessment evaluation of various models. Finally, section V concludes the
suggests that they have a possibility of good performance in article.
their final examination also.
A correlation feature selection approach is applied in this II. BACKGROUND
work to determine which features are most important for pre- This section discusses the prominent ML models used for
dicting student’s performance. Correlation feature selection student’s performance prediction in recent research works.
scores are presented using which the features were scored Table 1 summarizes the details of such works discussing
using this method. Besides this, the major contributions of ML-based models, feature selection and the adopted method-
this work are: ology based on the size of the dataset or the primary or
(1) To identify the ML techniques prominently adopted for secondary data selection. The sets of predictors is not the
accurately predicting student’s academic performance. same in each work, bringing non-uniformity in the prediction
(2) To understand the feature selection in ML based models. results.
(3) To propose quantified features as a uniform feature for
the measurement of improvement in student’s perfor- A. FEATURES FOR PREDICTION MODELS
mance based on research gaps. Many factors like academic performance, demographic
Apart from these contributions, the article reviews many background, study behavior, selection of the courses,
standard ML based algorithms such as Support Vector and extracurricular activities affect the performance of
engineering students. When any model is developed based and motivational levels. Table 1 shows that most of the work
on this data, it provides ideal conditions which may not exist focus on implementing and validating the effectiveness of
for many students as they have different kinds of background the predictive algorithms. Researchers have selected different
features in their work for inclusiveness and to increase the different backgrounds, study habits and variable academic
range of features. Most of the features are static in nature and benchmarks. These factors can predict the student perfor-
suffer from many limitations such as: mance but as these features are not sufficient to record the
student’s learning during the semester, there is a need to
(i) Academic data: the most reliable data to predict stu-
devise an effective tool to predict students’ performance
dent’s academic performance. It consists of student’s
before the final assessment that may improve learning out-
CGPA, internal assessment, internal examination scores
comes. Therefore, there is a need to devise an effective tool
and courses selected by the students. Major problem
to predict and improve students’ performance. In this work,
with this kind of data is non-uniformity. Different insti-
we aim to predict their performance during the semester to
tutes have their own assessment methods and any model
provide with the opportunities of improvement [26]. This can
that has shown accuracy on a dataset of any institute
be done with the inclusion of a dynamic feature along with
may not provide the same results for another institute.
other features to ensure the measured improvement.
Moreover, the applied methods may differ for differ-
ent courses. For example, with the secondary school
data, few institutes have a higher cut-off for admission. III. PROPOSED METHOD
Hence, there will be less variation in this data, whereas, To strengthen the predictive models, ‘learning coefficients’
in the institutes with a lower cut-off, this variation will calculated through adaptive assessment [28] are introduced
be high. Therefore, the reliability of the same features in this work. They are the quantified performance metrics for
would be different in both the settings [25], [26]. a group of courses including a course and its pre-requisite
(ii) Demographic and personality data: such details include courses. It has been established that performance in the
the age, gender and personality data about student’s pre-requisite course is a significant predictor of performance
background like parent’s education, parent’s income, in the successive courses [18]. This academic feature depends
emotional intelligence, student’s interests, level of moti- on the knowledge-building of the students thereby bringing
vation, communication, interest in sports, hobbies and uniformity in the dataset. In addition, adaptive assessment
ethnicity. This data is vital because student’s motiva- can be conducted multiple times during a semester, thus
tional level heavily rely on these factors. However, providing more opportunities for improvement. To assess
accurate data is often missing, and analysis with such the performance of learning coefficients based student’s per-
kind of data can lead to biases against students with formance prediction model, a study was conducted on the
a specific background. Also, this kind of data would students of undergraduate Computer Science and Engineer-
require permission concerning ethics [27]. ing (CSE) program at Amity University, Lucknow, India.
(iii) Institutional data: it pertains to the facilities depen- The conceptual framework of the proposed methodology is
dent on the institutes, the condition of the laborato- shown in figure 2. The university follows Choice Based
ries, the state of experiments, infrastructure, teaching Credit System (CBCS). All the students need to complete
methodology, transportation facility and communica- a minimum number of credit units in each semester. The
tion medium [26], [27]. This data is contextual and program structure defines the courses in each semester under
dependent on factors such as the availability of proper four different categories namely, Core Courses (CC), Domain
resources for selected courses that would affect the accu- Elective (DE), Value Added Courses (VAC) and Open Elec-
racy of the predictive models. tive (OE). CC and DE include courses that are related to the
(iv) Behavioral data: it includes the study pattern, attention branch a student is enrolled in, while OE and VAC allow the
span, rate of downloading of study material in case of students to study topics of interest that are beyond their core
flipped classes, social interactions, time spent on social domain. DE courses are taught in collaboration with other
sites and playing educational computer games. Feature- engineering departments. CSE program has domain elective
related behavior of students is crucial for the analysis of course on Microprocessors (MP) in the seventh semester
their performance prediction. Most of this data is subjec- which is offered by electronics and communication engineer-
tive, based on surveys and questionnaires. Researchers ing department. This experiment is conducted on 91 students
use this as primary data or extract secondary information who opted MP as DE course. Two prerequisite courses
from this data for prediction purposes. This data relies for the MP course as mentioned in the program structure
heavily on the student’s responses which can have many are (a) Computer Organization and Architecture (COA) and
diversification and needs to precisely map various fea- (b) Basics of Electronics Engineering (BEE). Students study
tures like the demographic and academic profile of the these prerequisite courses in the third and fourth semester
students [26], [27]. respectively.
FIGURE 5. Values of ‘learning coefficients’ J, K and L. pointers in class 10th and 12th , SGPA of semester I to VII,
marks obtained in the end semester exam of the Micropro-
cessor course, and gender as a demographic feature. The
dependency between the learning coefficients and response
A. FEATURE ENCODING
variable was calculated through a correlation matrix as shown
All the data types are converted to numeric data type because in figure 7. Correlation coefficients are calculated through
the algorithm used for this work supports numeric data type Scikit, a software machine learning library used for Python
as shown in Table 2. Grade pointers and scores were not programming language. The colab tool was used for the
rounded-off to integers but taken as original values for the evaluation of the work that supports Scikit which further
prediction with values up to two places after the decimal. calculates the correlation coefficient by Pearson’s correlation
Few features such as gender and board of examination (high coefficient (r). The correlation coefficient is calculated as
school, intermediate) were converted to numeric values mak- shown in equation 4:
ing it convenient to run on Python.
6(xi − x)(yi − y)
r=p (4)
B. FEATURES SELECTION AND DATA PRE-PROCESSING 6(xi − x)2 6(yi − y)2
Before the evaluation phase, pre-processing included remov- Correlation matrix shows the correlation between learn-
ing extra columns from dataset and converting them into ing coefficients and other key features. Positive correlation
numerical values to make it usable for the analysis. Figure 6 coefficient value (r) shows the dependency among features
shows the methodology considered for the evaluation of the and a negative correlation value indicates independence in
prediction model. features. The correlation coefficient was calculated for learn-
ing coefficients and the remaining features. Calculated values
C. CORRELATION BETWEEN LEARNING COEFFICIENTS of ‘r’ are favorable for the grade pointers in the course
AND OTHER KEY FEATURES Microprocessor ranging between .70 to .78; CGPA of all the
Learning coefficients are correlated with academic features seven semesters between .23 to .82; CGPA achieved in final
and other demographic features for establishing them as pre- semester as .73 to .84; percentage of 10th as .31 and .36 in
dictor of performance. Academic data consists of student’s the 12th examination. Positive correlation coefficient values
1) Linear Regression
LR is used to quantify the linear relationship between
an explanatory variable and response variable. In the
event, if there are more than one explanatory vari-
ables, then it is called Multiple Linear Regression. This
kind of relationship predicts the response variable or
dependent variable, and the variables for predicting the
variable are called the explanatory or independent vari-
ables [29], [30]. The difference between the true and
predicted values is known as the residual. Predicting
a response variable based on the explanatory variable
is known as regression analysis, and a straight line
that describes the prediction is known as the regression
line. The calculation of the best fit line is based on
the method of least squares which minimises the sum
of the vertical distance between all of the data points
and the line of best fit. Mathematical representation of
multiple linear regression is given in equation 5.
FIGURE 7. Correlation matrix.
yi = α0 + α1 xi1 + α2 xi2 + . . . ..αm xim + ϵi (5)
where xi denotes explanatory variable, yi is the
prove that learning coefficients are also significant factors in response variable, α0 , α1 . . . .αn are model parameters
predicting the student’s performance. wherein α0 is also known as the intercept and ϵi is
the residual. The subscript ‘i’ refers to the iþ data
D. EVALUATION OF THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELS instances in the dataset and ‘m’ refers to the number
FOR PREDICTION of explanatory variables.
The dataset was split into training and testing data in 90% 2) Decision Tree
and 10% respectively of the total inputs. As the dataset DTs classify data into good performing and poor
is small, regression-based ML models are most suitable to performing based on the relationship between the fea-
run the prediction. Deep Learning based models are prone tures and their comparative significance. DT regression
to over-fitting on a small dataset. After pre-processing, the trains a model in the form of a tree to predict data in the
dataset is run for the following ML models: LR, DT, RF, future [31]. They are simple algorithms for prediction
and SVR on the colab tool which are briefly discussed structured as root to a leaf node in a tree. Node repre-
below. sents the test of features indicating their possible value
model predicts values that are either lower or higher than the
actual value. Therefore, we determine the model’s accuracy
and creates the split based on the calculated value of
through evaluation metrics based on residuals. Residuals are
the feature of the decision. This split creates new nodes
the difference between the actual and the predicted values.
and the process continues until the formation of pure
Important parameters for the models such as accuracy RMSE,
leaf nodes.
MAE, and MSE [33], [34] have been evaluated. Evaluation
3) Random Forests
metric used to measure accuracy of best performing model
Random forests have many DTs that take different
is R2 score. It is a simple but efficient metric to compare the
features as a root and then based on it Entropy and GINI
developed models. R2 score is calculated using the formula
Index are calculated. Each tree may have a different
as in equation 6.
decision. An algorithm based on RF selects the decision
chosen by most DTs based on the majority voting RSS
R2 = 1 − (6)
system [18]. To apply RF algorithm, TSS
• M number of data instances are chosen from the
where R2 is the coefficient of determination, RSS is the sum
dataset. of the squares of the residuals and TSS is the total sum of
• A DT associated to these M data instances is then P 2
the squares. Here, RSS = yi − ŷi where yi is the actual
built.
(yi − ȳ)2
P
value and ŷi is the predicted value; TSS =
• Both the steps listed above are repeated until N
where yi is the actual value and ȳ is the mean value of the
number of DTs are generated.
variable/feature.
For a new input data point, each tree generates the In order to determine various parameters, ML models were
prediction value of response variable and assigns that developed using the default value settings of most of the
data point to the average across all the predicted values. hyper-parameters defined during the experiment and are pre-
4) Support Vector Regression (SVR) sented in Table 3.
SVR is used to model non-linear relationships between
variables to adjust the model’s robustness through esti- TABLE 3. Parameter settings for ML algorithms.
mated hyperplane functions. A hyperplane is the best
fit line with maximum points fitted within a threshold
value. They are the decision boundaries to predict the
continuous output based on a set of mathematical func-
tions known as kernels. Popular kernels used in SVR
are linear, non-linear, polynomial, radial basis function
(RBF) and sigmoid [32]. Figure 8 shows the hyperplane
between two variables X1 X2 . ϵ is a tunable parame-
ter that determines the width of the plane around the
hyperplane. Points that fall inside this plane are correct
predictions. SVR is reasonable for small datasets as it To assess the performance of ML models, apart from R2
has good generalization capability. Score, MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MSE (Mean Square
It is not possible for a regression-based model to pre- Error), and RSME (Root Mean Square Error) are also
dict the exact value of a continuous variable. A regression evaluated.
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various high quality journals.