Probability & statistics for

Engineering
Oil & Gas Engineering Department

M. Sc. ALAA ABD AL SAJAD ALMALKI

Lecture seven

probability

Probability can be defined as the measure of the likelihood that the event will
occur. probability is the basis of inferential statistics .For example, predictions are
based on probability, and hypotheses are tested by using probability.

• The theory of probability grew out of the study of various games of chance
using coins, dice, and cards.

• Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a ball from balls box
are called probability experiments.
A probability experiment(trial) is a chance process that leads to well-defined
results called outcomes.

An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment

When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes: head and tail

In the rolling of a single die, there are six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are shown here :
Experiments ( trials) Sample space
Toss one coin Head, tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false question True, false
Toss two coins Head-head, tail-tail, head-tail, tail-head

An event consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment

An event can be one outcome or more than one outcome. For example, if a die is rolled and a 6
shows, this result is called an outcome, since it is a result of a single trial. An event with one
outcome is called a simple event. The event of getting an odd number when a die is rolled is
called a compound event, since it consists of three outcomes or three simple events. In general, a
compound event consists of two or more outcomes or simple events.
Example 1 Find the sample for rolling two dice

Solution
Since each die can land in six different ways, and two dice are rolled, the sample space can be
presented by a rectangular array, as shown in figure below. The sample space is the list of
pairs of numbers in the chart.

S
Die 1 Die 2
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
5 (1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
6 (1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
Example 2 : Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three
children. Use B for boy and G for girl.

Solution There are two genders, male and female, and each child could be either
gender. Hence, there are eight possibilities, as shown here. BBB BBG BGB GBB
GGG GGB GBG BGG

There are two basic interpretations of probability:

1. Classical probability
2. Empirical or relative frequency probability

Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur. For
example, when a single die is rolled, each outcome has the same probability of occurring. Since there are
six outcomes, each outcome has a probability of (1/6).

Equally likely events are events that have the same probability of occurring.
Formula for Classical Probability

The probability of any event E is

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒

This probability is denoted by

𝑛(𝐸)
P (E) =
𝑛(𝑆)

This probability is called classical probability, and it uses the sample space S.

There are Four basic probability rules. These rules are helpful in solving probability
problems,
Probability Rule 1: The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or
decimal) between and including 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0 ≤ P(E) ≤1.
probabilities cannot be negative or greater than 1.
 Probability Rule 2 : If an event E cannot occur, its probability is 0

Example 3: When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9.

solution : Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9. Hence, the
0
probability is P(9) = = 0
6

Probability Rule 3 : If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.

Example 4: When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less
than 7 ?
Solution Since all outcomes—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6—are less than 7, the probability is
6
P(number less than 7) = =1
6
The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain.
 Probability Rule 4 : The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the
sample space is 1.

For example, in the roll of a fair die, each outcome in the sample space has a
1
probability of . Hence, the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is as shown.
6

Outcome 1 2 3
s 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
Probability
6 6 6 6 6 6

1 1 1 1 1 1 6
sum + + + + + = = 1
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Empirical Probability

The difference between classical and empirical probability is that classical probability assume that outcomes are
equally likely, while empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes.
Suppose for example that a researcher asked 25 people if they liked the taste of a new soft drink. The responses
were classified as yes, no, or undecided. The results were categorized in a frequency distribution as shown:

Response Frequency
Yes 15
No 8
Undecided 2
Sum 25

Formula for Empirical Probability

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is

𝒇𝒓𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒔 𝑓

P (E) = 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒇𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒃𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 = 𝑛

This probability is called empirical probability and is based on observation.

Example 5:
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following probabilities.

a. A person has type O blood.

b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type Anor type O blood.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.

solution
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
 𝑓 21
a. P ( O) = =
𝑛 50

22 5 27
b. P ( A or B) = + =
50 50 50

(Add the frequencies of the two classes.)

2 5 7
c. P ( neither A nor O ) = + =
50 50 50

(Neither Anor O means that a person has either type B or type AB blood.)
2 48 24
d. P ( not AB ) = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = 1 − = =
50 50 25

(Find the probability of not AB by subtracting the probability of type AB)