PROBABILITY

Probability
 means possibility
 It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a random event.
 is the chance or likelihood that an event will happen.
 The value is expressed from zero to one.

Probability is a measure that is associated with how certain we are of outcomes of a particular experiment or
activity.
❖ An experiment is a planned operation carried out under controlled conditions. If the result is not
predetermined, then the experiment is said to be a chance experiment.
❖ A result of an experiment is called an outcome.
❖ The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes.
❖ Event is a subset of the sample space

Simple Event - is when only one event can occur.

Example: Example:
Experiment: Consider tossing a coin Experiment: Consider rolling a die
Outcome: ___________________ Outcome: ____________________
Sample Space: _______________ Sample Space: ________________
Simple Events: Simple Events:
1. “Getting a head” _______ 1. “Getting a number 5” ________
2. Getting a tail” ______ 2. “Getting an odd number” ______
3. “Getting a number less than 4” ______

Probability of Simple Events - is finding the probability of a single event occurring.

❖ If each of the outcomes in a sample space is equally likely to occur, then the probability of an event
E, denoted as P (E) is given by

Example:
1. What is the probability of “getting an even number” in rolling a die?

2. What is the probability of “getting a heart card” in a standard deck of cards?

Compound Events – are events which consist of more than one outcome. A compound event consists of two or
more simple events.
Example:
Experiment: Consider rolling two dice
Outcomes: ___________________
Sample Space: ________________
Compound Events:
1. “Getting a number 5 and 1” _______
2. “Getting a sum of 7” ______

Probability of Compound Events - is the probability of 2 or more events occurring together. Probability
of a compound event can be calculated by dividing the number of favorable outcomes in the event by
the total number of outcomes.

Example:
1. What is the probability of “getting a sum of 8” in rolling two dice?

2. What is the probability of “ getting a face card” in a standard deck of card?

 UNION AND INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
Union of two events: The union of events A and B, denoted by A∪B, consists of all outcomes that are in A or
in B or in both A and B.
Example: Example:
U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10}
A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
B = {1, 2, 3, 5} B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}

A ∪ B = { ______________} A ∪ B = { ______________}

VENN DIAGRAM VENN DIAGRAM

Joint Events Disjoint Events

Intersection of two events: The intersection of events A and B, denoted by A∩B, consists of all outcomes
that are in both A and B.
Example: Example:
U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10, 11} U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10}
A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
B = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11} B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}

A ∩ B = { ______________} A ∩ B = { ______________}

VENN DIAGRAM VENN DIAGRAM

Joint Events Disjoint Events

Complement of an event: The complement of event A, denoted by 𝐴′, consists of all outcomes that are NOT
in A.
Example:
U = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,10, 11}
A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
B = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11}

1. 𝐴′ = { ___________________}
2. 𝐵′ = { ___________________}
′
3. (A ∪ B) = { ________________}
′
4. (A ∩ B) = { ________________}
 PROBABILITY OF UNION OF TWO EVENTS:
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE OR NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Mutually Exclusive Events – events that have no outcomes in common. This also means that if two or
more events are mutually exclusive, they cannot happen at the same time. This is also referred to as
disjoint events.

“If two events, A or B, are mutually exclusive, then the probability that either A or B occurs is the
sum of their probabilities. In symbols,”

𝑷(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩)

Not Mutually Exclusive Events – events that have common outcome. This also means that if two or
more events are not mutually exclusive, they can happen at the same time. This is also referred to as joint
events.

“If two events, A or B, are not mutually exclusive, then the probability that either A or B occurs is the
sum of their probabilities decreased by the probability of both occurring events. In symbols,”

𝑷(𝑨 𝒐𝒓 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) – P(A and B)

Consider the situation below. Draw its Venn Diagram. Identify whether the situation is mutually exclusive or
not mutually exclusive event. Find the probability in each item.

1. A restaurant serves a bowl of candies to their customers. The bowl of candies Gabriel receives has 10
chocolate candies, 8 coffee candies, and 12 caramel candies. After Gabriel chooses a candy, he eats it.
Find the probability of getting candies with the indicated flavors.

a. P (chocolate or coffee) c. P (coffee or caramel)

b. P (caramel or not coffee) d. P (chocolate or not caramel)

2. Mario has 45 red chips, 12 blue chips, and 24 white chips. What is the probability that Mario randomly
selects a red chip or a white chip?

3. Of 240 students, 176 are on the honor roll, 48 are members of the varsity team, and 36 are in the honor
roll and are also members of the varsity team. What is the probability that a randomly selected student
is on the honor roll or is a member of the varsity team?

4. Ruby's dog has 8 puppies. The puppies include white females, 3 mixed-color females, 1 white male, and
2 mixed-color males. Ruby wants to keep one puppy. What is the probability that she randomly chooses
a puppy that is female and white?

5. Carl's basketball shooting records indicate that for any frame, the probability that he will score in a two-
point shoot is 30%, a three-point shoot, 45%, and neither, 25%. What is the probability that Cindy will
score either in a two-point shoot or in a three-point shoot?
PROBABILITY OF UNION OF TWO EVENTS:
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE OR NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS