Assignment

Basic Probability, Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem

1. A bag contains 5 red balls, 3 blue balls, and 2 green balls. A ball is drawn at random.
What is the probability that the ball is:
a) Red
b) Not blue
c) Either red or green
2. A six-sided fair die is rolled. Find the probability of getting:
a) A prime number
b) A number greater than 4
c) An even number or a multiple of 3
3. If two cards are drawn at random from a deck of 52 playing cards, find the probability
that both are kings.
4. A box contains 12 bulbs, of which 4 are defective. If one bulb is selected at random, what
is the probability that it is non-defective?
5. A fair coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting:
a) Exactly 2 heads
b) At least one tail
6. An urn contains 6 red and 4 blue balls. A second urn contains 5 red and 7 blue balls. A
ball is drawn at random from the first urn and placed in the second urn. Then, a ball is drawn
from the second urn. What is the probability that it is red?
7. A communication system transmits a signal correctly with probability 0.9. If 4 signals are
sent independently, what is the probability that at least one of them is incorrect?
8. A bus arrives at a stop every 20 minutes. If a passenger arrives at a random time, what is
the probability that they will wait for at least 12 minutes for the next bus?
9. A die is rolled twice. Given that at least one of the rolls is a 5, what is the probability that
both rolls show 5?
10. A biased coin lands on heads with probability 0.7, while a fair coin lands on heads with
probability 0.5. One of these two coins is chosen at random and flipped. If it lands on heads,
what is the probability that the biased coin was chosen?
11. A student is taking a multiple-choice test where each question has 4 choices, and the
correct answer is chosen at random. The student knows the correct answer 60% of the time and
guesses otherwise. If they answer a question correctly, what is the probability that they actually
knew the answer rather than guessed?
12. Two fair dice are rolled. Given that the sum of the numbers is 8, find the probability that
one of the dice shows a 3.
13. A bag contains 7 white and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn one after another without
replacement. Find the probability that the second ball drawn is white, given that the first ball
drawn was black.
14. Two fair dice are rolled. Given that the sum of the numbers is 8, find the probability that
one of the dice shows a 3.
15. A bag contains 7 white and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn one after another without
replacement. Find the probability that the second ball drawn is white, given that the first ball
drawn was black.
16. In a certain school, 40% of the students study Mathematics, 50% study Physics, and 20%
study both subjects. If a randomly chosen student studies Physics, what is the probability that the
student also studies Mathematics?
17. Suppose that 80% of people in a community have a smartphone. If 70% of those with
smartphones use WhatsApp and 30% of those without smartphones use WhatsApp, find the
probability that a randomly chosen person uses WhatsApp.
18. A box contains 3 defective and 7 non-defective items. Two items are drawn at random
without replacement. What is the probability that the second item is defective given that the first
item drawn was non-defective?
19. A factory has three machines: A, B, and C, which produce 30%, 45%, and 25% of the
total items, respectively. The probability of a defective item from these machines is 3%, 4%, and
5%, respectively. If an item is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was produced
by Machine B?
20. A medical test for a disease is 95% accurate for those who have the disease and 90%
accurate for those who do not. If the disease affects 1% of the population, what is the probability
that a randomly tested person who gets a positive result actually has the disease?
21. A company has two suppliers, X and Y. Supplier X provides 60% of the products, and
supplier Y provides 40%. The probability of receiving a defective product from X is 2%, and
from Y, it is 5%. If a randomly chosen product is defective, find the probability that it was from
supplier Y.
22. In a university, 70% of students take Science and 30% take Arts. 80% of Science students
pass an exam, while 60% of Arts students pass. If a student is selected at random and is found to
have passed, what is the probability that they were from the Science stream?
23. A software company has three divisions: Development, Testing, and HR, employing
50%, 30%, and 20% of the workforce, respectively. The probability of an employee being
promoted is 20% in Development, 15% in Testing, and 10% in HR. If a randomly chosen
employee is promoted, what is the probability that they belong to the Testing division?
24. A cybersecurity team detects an anomaly in their system, which could be due to either a
legitimate user making an unusual request or a hacker attempting unauthorized access.

• 0.1% of all login attempts come from hackers.

If the system flags a login as suspicious, what is the probability that it actually came from a
hacker?

25. A company has three machines (A, B, C) that produce 40%, 35%, and 25% of the total
products, respectively. The probability of a defective product from these machines is:

• P(D∣A) = 0.02
• P(D∣B) = 0.03
• P(D∣C) = 0.05

If a randomly selected product is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was
produced by Machine B?